TigerSoft and Peerless Daily Hotline  
                                      www.TIGERSOFTWARE.COM/555HL555/index.htm
      (C) 1985-2014 William Schmidt, Ph.D.  www.tigersoft.com               All rights strictly reserved.  
     Tiger Software  858-273-5900             PO Box 22784   San Diego, CA 92192      
     Email william_schmidt@hotmail.com  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Previous Hotline -  http://tigersoftware.com/9933Hot/  9/2/2014   - 10/8/2014-
                                  http://tigersoftware.com/2233HL/index.html   6/25/2013-9/1/2014
                                  http://tigersoftware.com/112211-H/index.htm  11/22/2013-3/20/2014
                                  http://tigersoft.com/1111-HL/index.html      10/22/2013-11/21/2013
                                   Past Hotline Predictions    http://tigersoft.com/-HL42013/index.html           
                                                                                                   http://www.tigersoft.com/-2GBL13HL/index.htm   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                        PLEASE...Sharing this hotline address with non-subscribers is a violation of our contract
                        with you and a violation of copyright laws.  I work hard for you.  Respect that effort!                   
                             --->  To renew this Hotline, order here $350 (check) -    $360(Visa/MC)  
                                                             www.tigersoft.com/-2GBL13HL/index.htm         
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             A Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE

              Peerless Signals: 1915-2013     
           New   Peerless Signals and DJI Charts  - version 7/4/2013
           1965  1965-6    1966   1966-7    1967    1967-8    1968   1968-9   1969      1969-70   1970   1970-1 1971
               1971-2  1972  1972-3    1973   1973-4   1974     1974-5     1975   1975-6     1976    1976-7     1977 1977-1978
              1978  1978-79     1979   1979-80   1980    1980-1   1981    1981-2   1982     1982-1983     1983    1983-1984
              1984  1984-1985 1985 1985-1986    1986  1986-1987  1987    1987-8  1988 1988-9   1989    1989-90
              1990  1990-1  1991   1991-2  1992   1992-3    1993   1993-4   1994   1994-5   1995     1995-1996   1996
              1996-7    1997   1997-8    1998    1998-1999   1999    1999-2000   2000      2000-1   2001   2001-2   2002
              2002-3    2003   2003-4    2004   2004-5     2005   2005-6    2006    2006-7    2007    2007-8    2008    2008-9
              2009      2009-10    2010    2010-11    2011    2011-12     2012     2012-2013

       Background and New Studies 

      ------------------------  Announcements --------------------------------  

            ===> LOOK FOR AN EMAIL  FRIDAY
            GIVING THE HOTLINE's NEW ADDRESS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
             Email me Saturday, if you do not get one.  william_schmidt@hotmail.com

                            
                    
                                   1  The On-Line Explosive Stocks is finished.
                                      2   The On-Line Killer Short Sales book is also finished, but
                                          will be re-edited this coming week.

                              I call your attention now to the many new concepts and
                              the  considerable new research in them:  For example:
                                   1) A very good New Tiger Buy B12 for Low Priced Stocks (1)
                                   2) After Red high volume reversal days use CP uptrend-breaks.
                                   3) Buy the stocks the Federal Govt wants you to buy.  (1)
                                   4) 100-Day Power Rankings...  (1)
                                   5) Using Closing Power Hooks after Buy B26s and B20s. (1)
                                   6) How A Stock Reacts to Its Earnings Report Is Very important. (1)
                                   7) TigerSoft Major Buy Signals' Combinations
                                           Which are most Powerful? Reliable? (1)
                                   8) Augmented Buy B20s' Independent Success Rate. (1)
                                   9) What factors warn a rising 65-dma will not hold? (2)
                                 10) The classic cluster of  technical characteristics that commonly appear
                                        in the 23 stocks falling 70% or more in the deep pullback of 2011. (2)

                     Purchase each all new book by CC for $42.50 or send a check
                     for $37.50 to me: William Schmidt, 5970 Gullstrand St., San Diego, CA 92122.

                     Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
new             Sept 2014 Peerless Buy and Sell Signals
                     Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
                 Documentation for TigerSoft Automatic and Optimized Signals.
                 How reliable support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma? 
                 SPY Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized Signals.
                  "The Jig Is Up": Calling September and October Tops.
                 A Keynesian's Warning Signs.
                 
4/7/2014   Advisory Pink Closing Power S7s at ETF at top since 1994
                              1994   1996  1997  1998  1999     2000 QQQ   SPY
                              DIA    2002   2007    2008    SPY 2011 2013-2014

                 Tiger Buy and Sell Signals: New 2014 Research:
                      These are randomly chosen groups.
                       but clearly we need to back-test them in more years.
                       You can replicate or do similar studies yourself
                       for other signals and/or other years.
                  9/1/2014 - 2014 Tiger B19s - Steady rallying and no pullbacks below the 21-day ma.
                       9/2/2014 - 2014 Tiger B17s on 14As taken alphabetically
                       9/3/2014 - 2014 Tiger B17s on 60 Biotechs taken alphabetically
                 9/4/2014 - 2014 Tiger B18s on all "R" stocks taken alphabetically
                 9/8/2014 - 2014 Tiger B20s  - Conclusion: Use Closing Power trendbreaks in aftermath.
                 9/8/2014 - 2014 Tiger B16s - Conclusion: Use mostly when LA/MA under 1.05.
                   9/11/2014 - 2014 Tiger B15s - Conclusion: Certain conditions improved the results dramatically.
                 9/12/2014 - 2014 Tiger B25s - Conclusion: 87.5% success rate when other internals are positive.
                 9/15/2014 - 2014 Tiger B25s - Best conditions for using B25s with somewhat higher RSX capitalization stocks.  
                 9/16/2014 -  New Tiger Closing Power Take-Off Buy Signal in 2014:  14s, QQQ, DJI-30 and ETFs
                 9/17/2014 -  New Tiger Closing Power Take-Off Buy Signal: 2009A-s
                 9/18/2014 -  New Tiger Closing Power Take-Off Buy Signal: 2010A-s
                 9/21/2014 -  New Tiger Augmented Sell S8s: DJI-30 - 2014
                                                       Requiring S8s to show Negative CP%-Pr and IP21<+.15 produced a 70% success rate
                                                       in a rising market. for DJI-30 stocks and big ETFs.
                 9/24/2014 -  Tiger Sell S14s: They make price  breakdowns very bearish.
                  The New 2014 Peerless.exe Software has now been posted on the Elite Stock Professional Page.
           ---> To Older Hotlines Lines

                NEW   S17 Peerless update has been posted on Tiger Elite Stock Professionals' Page.
                It includes new Tiger signals showing most reliable tests of 65-dma, a Buy B2
                and a Sell S2.  Also in it is a Buy B13 and S13 to show Closing Power spikes.

                                                            NEAR65.exe on Data Page

               The Tiger Data page now offers a night download of the stocks that have
                closed within 1% of a 65-dma.  We want to see which way stocks are jumping.
                We also want to find stocks perfectly poised to take off or collapse.  Here the
                Closing Power trend reversals are important. 

                Lots of factors affect whether a stock will hold or whether it will fail on a test
                of the 65-dma.  I think the Closing Power Percent - Price Percent using their
                65-day highs and lows is one of the best predictors.  More on this in the
                coming nights. The current CP%-Pr% is shown to the right of the graph.

               This update is $95 if you do not have a subscription to the Elite Page.   If you
                purchased the B20 update a few weeks ago, I will send you the link to this
                update on Wednesday.     

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

             NIGHTLY HOTLINES


              11/20/2014    The recent very high Accumulation Index readings for
              the DJI and the other major market indexes are very bullish this time
              of the year.  New research tonight suggests that there is a 47% chance
              for an additional rally of 10% by the DJI before there is a retreat 
              to the lower band. 

              Hold DIA, SPY.  I was hoping to be able to buy QQQ on weakness.
              The strongest tech blue chips, like AAPL, CSCO and MSFT should
              continue to be the leaders.  MSFT did just have a small retreat and
              now its Closing Power has bullishly hooked back upwards.  

              Crude Oil lools like it is turning around here.  It is about to
              break its price downtrend and shows quite bullish internals considering
              its decline.  At the very least, fill your car up!

                            Note DJI's very high IP21 readings in November.
                             Historically, this is very bullish.



              Peerless remains on a Buy.  The key ETFs' Closing Powers
              are rising, thereby showing Professionals are distinctly bullish despite the
              the DJI's 10% advance in only a month.  Breadth has not been good.
              But, as I showed last night, the degree of divergence by the A/D Line from
              the DJI's advance-decline differential whether measured by duration or
              by degree is not reliable without accompanying Peerless Sells and much
              weaker internals, namely a low P-I, low V-I and a low Tiger Accumulation
              Index (IP21). 

             Bad breadth can be overcome by very positive Accumulation Index readings.
              The best example of this can be see in the 1986-1987 Peerless DJI chart.
              The "B9" shown below was a programing convenience used in tonight's testing
              of cases where the IP21 rose above +.22.  The next version of Peerless
              will have to make it a "Buy B21".  The results for this signal warrant its
              inclusion as a Peerless B uy signal.  All the numbers from 1-20 are now used.



             New research tonight casts a very bullish light on the current market.
              The current TigerSoft Accum. Index (IP21) on the DJI now stands at +.288.
              It has been above +.225 every day since November 11th, or 8 straight days.
              Market history since 1928 shows this to be a very bullish situtation. 

              I invented the Accumulation Index way back in 1981 to measure insider
              and institutional buying and selling in an intra-day basis.  

              When this high a level of current Accumulation occurs in the last 3 months
              of the year, we can readily surmise that Professionals and Institutions
              are taking big positions ahead of what expect will be the normal November
              to May stock market advance.

             Below are all the similar cases when the IP21 rose above +.22 since 1928
             in the last three months of the year.  We only consider cases where the
             DJI was above its 21-dma.  It may also be significant how many days in
             close proximity the IP21 is above +.22  Here we only count the first day
             the IP21 reached this level.  More work will be done studying how the
             key values correlate with the success of this signal.  My thinking now is
             that the results are so good that this should be made into a new Peerless Buy
             signal.    More on this on Sunday night's Hotline.

                                     Results for Prospective New Buy B21

                             Subsequent Gains    No.                Years Occurring in
                                                               Instances
                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             over 10%                   8                  1943, 1949 (2), 1953, 1963, 1985, 1986, 1988
                             5%-10%                    4                  1945 (2), 2001, 2010
                             3%-5%                      1                  1934   
                             1% - 3%                    3                  1952, 1973, 2010
                             No Gain                     1                  1988 (Simultanous Peerless Sell.)
                             --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              17                             

====================================================================================
                                                                    OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

            11/19/2014    

            Breadth is turning bearish but Peerless remains on a Buy. 
            Short more Bearish MINCPs stocks but hold Bullish MAXCPs,
            SPY and DIA.  

            I did a new "Bad Breadth" Study below where I found earlier
            cases similar to ours today.  By itself, the breadth weakness
            we see now is not reliable enough to use for trading.  In addition,
            the IP21 (current Accum. Index) reading now is much higher than
            in the earlier cases.   These "Bad Breadth" signals do work about
            2/3 of the time, but in those cases where they do, Peerless gives a
            Sell signal, too.   That is not true now.

            The Closing Powers for the key ETFs are still in uptrends. 
            The Key Values are still quite positive for the DJI. 
            US (but very multinational) Blue chips are still the beneficiaries of "hot"
            international funds made nervous by another day of weakness in the Yen,
            Crude Oil and Gold.   It is not at all clear that the "alligator jaws" will
            snap shut.   Ordinarily, they do.  But similar potential broadening tops
            in 1996 and 1997 fell prey to the upward momentum of the 1990-2000
            bull market.  The DJI then went nearly 10 years without a 20% DJI decline.
            Our bull market is only half as old.

DJI     Peerless remains on a Buy, but breadth is deteriorating.

SPY

FAS

      
            Seasonality is quite Bullish.  Since 1965, the DJI has risen 63.8% of the time
            over the next 5 trading days, 72.3% of the time over the next 10 trading days
            and 68.1% of the time over the next 21 trading days. 

            Of course, seasonality is no guarantee prices will not decline. In particular, we
            have to be concerned at the deterioration in breadth even as the DJI has edged higher
            this past week.

            Today's breadth was bad again even as the DJI hold up appearances
            that all is well.   Since November 13th, unusual daily bearish breadth divergences
            have occurred three times.  How significant is this?

               1    11/13/2014    DJI  rose 40.but there were 898 more down than up on the NYSE
                  11/14/2014   Slight Bullish divergence    (DJI fell 18 but there were only 152 more up than down on NYSE)
               2   11/17/2014   DJI  rose 13 but there were 349 more down than up on NYSE
                   11/18/2014    Bullish breadth divergence  (DJI rose 40 and there were 691 more up on NYSE)
               3   11/19/2014   DJI   held steady (-2)  there were753 more down than up on NYSE   

             If we used a 5-day ma of the NYSE, the P-5-MA-Indicator would be -231 
             while the DJI rose 73.53 in the same period.  Has that ever happened before with the
             DJI 2.1% over the 21-dma?   The answer is that there are many such cases in
             bull markets.   I looked at 19 cases from 1950 to 1975.  Time ran out at this point.
             Of these 19 cases,  12 produced very tradable declines and paper losses
             were less than 5% on the DJI.                               

=====================================================================================
                                                           OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

                  11/18/2014     US Blue Chips Are "The Best Game in Town"
           for "hot" international money.  Money is fleeing Japan, Russia,
           the Middle East for US Markets.  That will prop it up until January
           I suspect. 

          The Peerless Buy on the DJI and the Rising Closing Powers tell us
           the intermediate-term trend remains UP, even though we are now seeing
           unmistakeable signs that the broader market is weakening and the DJI is
           unable to breakout above its rising resistance line.
 
           I would find some our Bearish MINCPs to short and stick with the long
           positions in DIA and SPY.  Tech strength today was in sympathy with
           AAPL's accelerating uptrend.   I believe a pivoting downward by blue chips
           will be avoided for now.  A pre-Thanksgiving blue chip rally next week seems
           the most likely scenario.

           The A/D Line Divergence from the DJI is not yet long enough lasting to predict
           a serious decline.  In addition, our P-I, V-I and Accumulation Index readings are
           too high now to suggest an imminent sell-off.   There are no new head/shoulders
           patterns in the 100+ stocks I graph each night here.  We would expect to find
           such patterns if we were at a top.   See more details in Table 1 below.
           The earliest this situation could change would probably be in January 2015.
           And even then, the markets will get a boost from the general bullishness
           of the 3rd year in the 4-Year Presidential Cycle.

                             The Decline in Yen and Crude Oil Continue. 

                    Most Foreign Markets Show Bear Market Rates of Descent






                                  

           US blue chips are natural havens for investors fleeing the Yen and Crude
           Oil.  Weak overseas' markets keep boosting the US markets. Gold is
           starting to rise, but it will be difficult for the FED hawks to make the case
           that inflationary commodity prices or labor costs justify higher interest
           rates.  This is why I suspect the alligator jaws will not snap shut on the
           DJI, SP-500 or OEX.  Instead prices will keep rising for another 6 weeks.
           That would be in keeping with typical bullishness of the last 6 weeks of
           the year.

          

 

====================================================================================
                                                   OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

                              11/17/2014    Though, the Peerless Buy and Rising Closing Powers
           show the intermediate-term remains bullish, we are now seeing unmistakeable
           signs that the broader market is weakening and the DJI is stalling out.  Stick
           with the long positions in DIA and SPY.  I believe a pivoting downward by blue
           chips will be avoided for now.  A pre-Thanksgiving blue chip rally next week
           seems the most likely scenario.
.
           On Friday the NYSE A/D Line bearishly broke its uptrend.  Breadth is narrowing.
           Today, even though the DJI added 13 points, there were 349 more down than up
           on the NYSE and on last Thursday, there were 898 more down than up on the
           NYSE even though the DJI rose 40.   Aggressive buying is becoming more
           concentrated in blue chip like the DJI and the OEX.  This defensiveness often
           occurs in the month before a correction.  Here it is taking place because foreign
           money is seeking a haven from the falling Yen and Euro.  Bad breadth will not
           immediately drive away the DJI's buyers or produce a Peerless Sell on the DJI.
           But it will in two weeks if this pattern continues.  The P-Indicator (the 21-day ma
           of NYSE advances minus declines) is now +444 and fell 64 today.  It would need
           to fall back to near zero to produce a Peerless Sell.

           See below also how the DJI is rnning out of positive momentum.  Daily volatility keeps
           shrinking.  This will end soon.  Price movements will probably soon increase
           sharply.  If the DJI were not at an all-time high and we were not in the bullish
           last 8 weeks of the year, the narrowing volatility could confidently be predicting
           a DJI decline.  But that is not true now.  So, I suspect we will see another DJI
           charge upwards to new highs by Thanksgiving, next Thursday.

           We can predict that the DJI, SP-100, SP-500 and QQQ will hold up for the next
           week, at least, because more than 75% of their stocks are above the support of
           their 65-dma.  Stocks as a hole are in more danger.  Notice below that less
           60% of the stocks beginning with "A", "C" or "S" as a sample of all stocks
           are above their 65-dma.

          Watch to see if the alligator jaws snap closed on FAS.  As big banks usually move
           up and down with Peerless and the DJI-30, this would be a warning of trouble
           ahead.  All the internals say FAS will go higher.

                       Bullish Internals vs The Broadening Top (Alligator Jaws) Pattern



                          Peerless Signals on DJI with Key Values, Internal Strength Indicators
                                              and Signs of Narrowing Volatility.

                     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                                                 OLDER NIGHTLY HOTLINES
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           

       11/14/2014    The Peerless Buy and Rising Closing Power show the intermediate-term
           remains bullish.  But Friday the NYSE A/D Line broke its uptrend.  The markets
           must now work off Thursday's unusual bearish divergence when the DJI rose 40
           but there were 898 more down than up on the NYSE.  A couple of days of weakness
           this week would be in keeping with the seasonal pattern for the DJI since 1965.
           (See the DJI's chart with A/D Line below.)  Short some more of the
           bearish MINCP stocks.  They will probably stay weak until the end of the year
           from tax-loss selling.

           We've just seen a 9% DJI advance in a month.  Take some trading profits. 
           A very short-term decline is likely.  I would not hold IWM or MDY.
           Hedging with some bearish MINCPs seems reasonable if you are nervous.
           Biotechs and some big banks look  more vulnerable.  See the Head/Shoulders
           in BAC, WFC, BBH and IBB.  

           The most accumulated Blue chips with strong Closing Powers like MSFT, CSCO
           and WMT look much stronger.  So, we will stay long SPY or DIA.   The pattern of
           early weakness followed by later strength each day is likely to continue.  
           We will watch to see if we get a good point to buy QQQ.                           


                         Can The Alligator Pattern Snap Its Jaws Shut?

                 There is still a danger that a broadening top pattern could unfold,
                 but its my opinion that the still rising Opening and CLosing Powers
                 plus the very high level of Accumulation will prevent that.  We
                 should be aware of this pattern's potential bearishness if there
                 is a sharp break next on red high volume. 


                     

                        The Opening and Closing Power are both rising for QQQ. 

                  The QQQ's CLosing Power is impressively rising above its resistance line. 
                  It is being powered upwards by AAPL and MSFT, which together account
                  for 22.2% of the QQQ's volatility.  Both show rising Tiger Closing Powers,
                  Opening Powers and Accumulation Index readings.  The QQQ also looks quite
                  strong because 81.8% of its stocks are now safely above their 65-day ma. 
                  (By comparison, 74.5% of the Russell-1000, 76% of the SP-500 and 77.8%
                  of the OEX were above theie 65-dma).             
                            
                                             
                                          Expect Still Higher Prices in A Week
                            
                            With Peerless still on a Buy and the key ETFs' Closing Power
                           all safely above their 21-day ma, the odds still favor higher prices.  While
                           the DJI, OEX, SP-500 and NASDAQ are showing an obvious inability to 
                           scale each of their respective rising resistance lines, Novembers ARE
                           generally quite bullish and Republican political victories typically bring
                           DJI rallies until December, at least.

                           Any decline for the next week should be limited by: (1) the bullishness of
                           the Thanksgiving week, (2) the fact that 86.7% of the DJI stocks are above
                           the support of their 65-dma and (3) the unusual steepness of the rising resistance
                           which reduces its reversing and snapping close powers.   It should be noted
                           that though the DJI rallies only 46.8% of the time for for the next two trading
                           days after November 16th, since 1965 the DJI has risen  63.8% of the time
                           over the next full week and 61.7% of the time over the next two weeks.

================================================================
                                        OLDER HOTLINES
================================================================

                 11/13/2014    Peerless remains on a Buy.  Hold long  SPY
                          and some of the Bullish MAXCP blue chips. But short some
                          of the bearish MINCP stocks, too.  The number of MINCP
                          stocks is growing.  Professionals are shorting many of the
                          weakest oil stocks; it looks like they expect heavy tax loss selling in
                          this group right up to the end of the year.

                          I suspect the causes of the DJI's bold 9.5% jump in only 21-trading days 
                          have much to do with the collapsing Yen, a Euro that cannot rally
                          and the 30% free-fall in Crude Oil since June 20th.  American
                          blue chips are viewed as a haven by Big overseas' money.
                          None of these Currency and Commodity sell-offs appear to be over.
                          So, the most Accumulated blue chips here should continue to rise.

                          The danger to the US markets will not come from these markets moving
                          back up, but from their acceleration downward.  This could signify
                          a world-wide recession and hyper-Deflation.  We would then be in
                          a 1937-like situation, especially if deep spending cuts are
                          made to the Federal Budget next year.  But for now, blue
                          chips are enjoying their reputation as havens from overseas
                          inflation and financial turmoil.                            

                          Until we see either a new Peerless Sell signal or the Closing Powers
                          for the DIA, SPY and QQQ break below their 21-day ma,  the
                          major market ETFs should keep on rallying.  November and December
                          are very bullish months. Tiger's Accumulation Index readings are still
                          rising for the DJI, SP-500 and NASDAQ.  So, good support should hold
                          up the markets if there is a decline.  More than 70% of all the stocks
                          in the Russell-1000 are above the support their 65-dma. 

                          Last but not least in my reasons for remaining bullish, the Republican
                          Election victory invites partisan buying now, just as it did in November 1968
                          (early December top), November 1972, November 1980 (early December top "
                          and then another early January top in 1981) and November  2004
                          mid December top).
            

                                                              The Secret of Alligator Wrestling

                                                              

                         One of the secrets of alligator wrestling, I'm told, is to hold the
                         beast's top snout up and back as far as possible.  It has much less leverage and
                         snapping power this way.  The DJI's support and resistance lines
                         look similar.  The steep angle of the DJI's top snout tells us not to get out.
                         The DJI's upper jaw's resistance line is probably angling up too steeply
                         to snap shut.  And the more the DJI rises, the easier it will be for a
                         decisive breakout and run to 18500.  Such an advance would achieve
                         the minimum price objective given the DJI's V-Pattern breakout at 17400.


                            
                                 This Remains A Blue Chip Market.

                  Today's breadth was poor.  There were nearly 900 more down than up on the
                          NYSE despite the DJI's 40 point gain. But the Peerless internals are still
                          very positive.  Remember that the DJI sometimes goes up for months even
                          though the A/D Line is lagging.  And remember that the high priced DJI stocks
                          have inordinate influence on its day to day price moves.  Visa, GS, IBM, MMM
                          and BA are the five highest priced.  In that group today, BA rose 2.66 and got back
                          above its 65-dma.  Only IBM in this group is below its 65-dma.  As for the
                          QQQ and the NASDAQ, the key stock to watch is AAPL.  As long as it keeps
                          rising the way it has been, it will be hard for these indexes to fall very far.

                                            Tax Loss Selling Will Probably Continue To Hit Oil Stocks
                          
                           Crude Oil's decline is showing no signs of abating.   This is hitting oil drilling,
                           tanker stocks and those producers with high fixed costs and lower profit margins.
                           Shorting some of these weak oil stocks appearing now in the BEARISH MINCP
                           lists is likely to prove profitable whatever the general market does.  We often
                           can make money on both ends of our MAXCPs and MINCPs hedges at
                           this time of year.

===============================================================
                                     OLDER HOTLINES
===============================================================

                 11/12/2014    Peerless remains on a Buy.  Prices are slowly eating
                          up the overhead resistance of the rising resistance line.  Once they
                          surpass it clearly, I would think the pace of the advance will quicken. 

                          If the DJI gathers speed in here, I would think it will easily rally to Thanksgiving
                          and the end of the month.  The best parallel I can find is how the DJI rose
                          up past its rising resistance of November 1996, moving steadily higher for
                          almost a year more.  Right now, the NYSE A/D Line, P-Indicator and Accumulation
                          Index are moving up very nicely.  Compare the rise here in the DJI's internal
                          strength   indicators with those in November 1996, as shown in yesterday's Hotline.

                                                 Peerless Signals on DJIA



                                   Rising Blue Closing Power on SPY Is Bullish

                   We have the Bullish Both-Up condition, too, since the Opening Power
                   is also rising.  The current Accum. Index stands at a bullish +.38.
                   Before there can be much of a decline, it will also need to break its
                   uptrend.



                                                      Today's Action Was Bullish

                          Surely, it has to be bullish when the bulls fight off the bears as quickly
                          as they did today.  The year-optimized Stochastic-50 Sells mentioned
                          yesterday were powerful to do much damage.  

                          Why were the bears so weak today?  This happens a lot when the DJI
                          is at all-time high.  As prices get past all easily drawn resistance lines,
                          bears do not know where to mount a defense.  Professionals sense this. 
                          So, they remain bullish.  That is why once again a weak opening was
                          steadily overcome as the key indexes steadily rose back up to their
                          previous closes.   I expect the strong Closing Powers for DIA, SPY, QQQ,
                          IWM to keep us correctly long.  I think we should not expect much of a
                          retreat until there is either a Peerless Sell or the Closing Powers violate
                          their 21-day ma which seem far below at this juncture.

                          We also keep mentioning, the seasonal bullishness for the next 6-8 weeks
                          as well as the rising A/D Lines for the DJI, SP-100, QQQ-100, SP-500 and
                          Russ-1000.   These are all impressively bullish.  And of course, the Republican
                          victory has brought the expected partisan celebration.  Even when the internals
                          were not so bullish as now, the bull market kept rising until early December
                         (1968, 1980) or January (1973).  

                          But understand that this is still a Blue Chip advance.   You can see this below
                          in the Tiger Index of the OEX stocks. (This is new tonight on the Tiger Data Page).
                          It is roaring to new highs.  The A/D Line for these stocks is streaking higher, too.  
                          And 76.8% of these stocks are now bullishly back above the support of their 65-dma. 



                        

                          
==============================================================
                           OLDER HOTLINES
==============================================================

                 11/11/2014  Peerless remains on a Buy.  But the DIA shows a new optimized
                          Red 50-day Stochastic Sell and the  DJI has not been able to clearly break out
                          above its rising resistance line.   We know this from the way the DJI has
                          stalled at 17600.   Any breakout here should show a big price jump
                          on excellent daily breadth and volume.   That has not happened.  In addition,
                          the steep uptrends for the Hourly DJI and the weakening NET IDOSC on the
                          DJI also suggest more hesitation or a slight decline here.

                          But I think the positive elements here will prevail.  The Closing Powers remain
                          in steep uptrends, indicating Professionals are still betting on higher prices for
                          blue chips.   Historically, the DJI has rallied 70.2% of the time since 1965
                          in the two weeks following November 11th and 80.9% of the time over the
                          next two months.  If you decide to go short at this point, consider some of our
                          worst looking Bearish MINCP stocks.  They will probably be under heavy tax
                          loss selling pressure right until the end of the year

                          DIA: Red 50-day Stochastic Sell vs Rising Blue Closing Power



                                       Japan's Collapsing Yen Is Bullish for US Stocks
                                       ... before It Becomes Bearish.

                          Japan's Yen keeps falling, thereby making US blue chips denominated in Dollars
                          very attractive to many foreign investors.  Besides buying US dividends and bonds,
                          hot overseas money is going into the big banks and many of the best known
                          US stocks like AAPL, MSFT, YHOO and AMGEN.   They remain the leaders
                          now.   Meanwhile Crude Oil keeps falling, thereby producing sell-offs in many
                          of the most volatile oil stocks. 

                          True the big Bank stocks are over-bought by normal standards; hence the
                          50-day Stochastic sells in their leveraged ETF, FAS (shown).   But the strong
                          Dollar is very favorable to Wall Street banks.  Besides the commissions'
                          profits from the rise in overseas investments, the rising Dollar certainly
                          encourages international transactions to be made in Dollars, thus giving the
                          Big Banks additional profits.  As a result, I doubt if FAS will decline much
                          until we get a Peerless sell..  Peerless signals have worked better with FAS than
                          any other ETF and Peerless, which has been back-tested to 1928, remains on a Buy.

                                 FAS Gains Using Peerless Buys and Sells To Trade
                                 Long and Short at The Opening The Next Day.

                                      What Happens when       Biggest Paper
                                      Starting with $10,000      Losses
                                      long and short                   on longs              on shorts
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         2009     +707.6%                            18.1%                    33.6%  
                         2010     +291.6%                            31.5%                    13.7%  
                         2011     +159.7%                            26.6%                     6%  
                         2012      +62.9%                             15.1%                    10.6%
                         2013     +149.1%                             7.4%                      9.5%
                         2014     +184.8%                             1.7%                      3.9%

                        How can we lock in our long profits now?  What if Peerless gives
                        no timely Sell.  I think that we also can Sell after this rally when
                        our Closing Power drops below its 21-day ma.  Using this approach
                        so far in 2014 produces a very impressive +169% gain, or a 94%
                        trading gain playing  only the long side.  I would do the same
                        thing now with long posititions in other ETFs.

                         

                    Sell Short Some of IBD's Top 50 Growth Stocks

                                     The IBD 50 Stocks' List is described as the "signature standard
                                     among IBD's CAN SLIM-focused" chart screening.  "It is the top-shelf
                                     source for savvy investors..."  
                                   
                                     But it is far from perfect.  Be wary of its stocks that show red-distribution and
                                     down-trending Closing Powers.  A week ago, the IBD-50 included SLXP. 
                                     Not now... We will look for other stocks in its list that Tiger shows to be vulnerable
                                     and over-invested in by the Public.  CAN-SLIM is a trend-prepetuating system.
                                     Its widespread application virtually guarantee that some stocks become
                                     over-bought bubbles that are bound to burst when the earnings outlook
                                     starts to sour.   Our Tiger Data Page now gives you this downloadable group to
                                     study closely.    



               

================================================================
                                      OLDER HOTLINES
================================================================

               11/10/2014   No Peerless Sell.  The DJI and SP-500 are creeping closer
                       to a breakouts past their well tested rising resistance lines. Decisive
                       breakouts would be in keeping with the exuberance a Republican
                       victory often brings in November (See 1968, 1972, 1980, 2000 and 2004).
                       Novembers and Decembers combine to make the most bullish period.
                       And the wonderful November 1996 breakout above the rising resistance
                       in a broadening pattern is a beacon showing the bullish possibilities
                       now.  Compare the rising internal strength indicators now for the
                       DJI with that of November 1996.  A repeat of November 1996 would
                       mean a rally until the last week of this month and no Peerless Sell;
                       then a brief sell-off to the DJI's 2 1/2% lower band and a strong
                       year-end rally. For now, that seems the most probable scenarip ahead.
                      
                                                                                                                      Oct-Nov 2014



                                                                                                                 Oct-Nov 1996             
                                               The Leaders Can Keep Rising
                                               even if The A/D Line Stalls Out.

                        The DJI's key values keep improving, though today breadth did narrow,
                       as there were only 434 more up than down on the NYSE and Up Voluime
                       was only 50 million more up than down.  But most significantly - since
                       the DJI can still rise for weeks and even months after the NYSE A/D
                       Line tops out - the Closing Powers for the leading DIA and SPY keep rising.
                       And true to recent form, the strongest sectors, blue chips, (DIA),
                       bank stock (FAS) and REITs rose nicely today.   Biotechs also turned up, while
                       Oil, Gold and Silver failed to sustain Friday's turmaround and the Yen
                       and the Euro were unable even to make a convincing bounce.

                       In essence, the market's leadship is unchanged and professionals keep
                       putting more money into the leaders, like AMGN, MSFT and FAS.
                       We should do the same.  These show high Accumulation and steeply
                       rising Closing Powers.  I realize that it may seem too late in the advance
                       to buy, but if you have new money to invest, this is where it should probably go,
                       so long as you are willing to sell if Peerless gives a Sell or the Closing Powers
                       break their rising 21-day ma.  Breaking steep uptrends without a
                       Peerless Sell or a CP non-confirmation usually only brings a CP
|                       test of their MA.  An exception to this would probably be occurring
                       if volume picks up sharply in the decline

________________________________________________________________________________________________

                                              OLDER HOTLINES
________________________________________________________________________________________________

                       11/7/2014   No Peerless Sell as DJI Reaches 17500-17600 Resistance Zone.
                       The DJI's key values are improving.  But the DJI is very over-bought,
                       at 4.4% over its 21-day ma.  The DJI is coming close to breaking out
                       above the rising resistance line.  That would continue the running in of
                       the shorts. 



                       Crude Oil seems to be turning around.  At least, Crude Oil shows a bullish
                       rising wedge, positive Accumulation and a Closing Power that has broken
                       its downtrend.  The really bullish signal here would be for its Relative Strength
                       Line breaks its downtrend.  A rally by Crude Oil back to its 200-day ma
                       would benefit Exxon and Chevron.  This, in turn, would help boost the DJI
                       even higher. 

                   To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts, DJI, SP-500, etc...
                         If this link does not work - go to http://www.tigersoftware.com/555HL555/stocks/index.htm
 
                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart     IBB Chart    IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV 

                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart     IBB Chart    IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV 

                            Please report any bad links
                         
               65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500,   for Russell-1000 ,  for DJIA,   for QQQ
                         Net Idosc on DJI    -8  (Negative on rally. Therefore bearish for tomorrow.)
                                                             Net Idosc Rules

                             -->107 -11  MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (12/7/2014)   Bullish Plurality  
                                                                         MSFT in the DJI is one of the leaders now.
                -->45 -16  MINCP stocks       Bearish MINCP Stocks   (12/7/2014)

                      --> 51   New Highs on NASDAQ   35  new lows.   Bullish Plurality    
                        --> 95   New Highs on NYSE   18     Bullish Plurality 



=====================================================================================
                                                         OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

                       11/6/2014   No Peerless Sell as DJI Reaches 17500-17600 Resistance Zone.
                       The DJI's key values are improving.  But the DJI is very over-bought,
                       at 4.5% over its 21-day ma. 

                       A dangerous drama is unfolding that the media is missing.
                       The US market see this as a bullish development.  Ultimately,
                       it is not.  I am referring to the surge in the Dollar and
                       Yen's "death-spiral".  These will have far-reaching ramifications
                       on world-trade.  If speculators can drop the Yen by  20% this year,
                       what will they achieve in another year.  And, closer to home,
                       what if they next go after the Euro?  .



                      
                                          The DJI's Broadening Price Pattern

                       The DJI's broadening top still looks menacing even though
                       Peerless refuses to give a Sell signal on this big rally. But a DJI move
                       past the rising resistance line at 17600 with the SPY's Closing Power
                       making a breakout would be unmistakeably bullish.  If that happens
                       I would buy SPY and DIA. 

                                                     Watch The Jobs' Numbers
 
                       The Jobs' Report tomorrow may cause a reversal downward from
                       the DJI's resistance line or it may bring a breakout.  The market's
                       reaction to it will be important.  It should be around 240,000 gained
                       if it matches a year ago and also September's numbers this year.
                       See http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/JobsR/index.html
                       Wall Street, it should be understood, is quite capable of rallying
                       as Main Street falters.  So, while really good numbers can be
                       bullish, one month's bad numbers, even if they show drops from a
                       month ago and a year ago, will likely produce only a temporary
                       decline.   Several month's deterioration is another story.  That
                       would compare with February and March 2008.

                      As I've been saying, the next seven weeks are normally quite bullish and,
                      though it's asking a lot of this aged bull market, the first 8 months in the
                      year before a Presidential Election are normally very bullish, too.

                                    Broadening Tops Are Not All Bearish.

             I've found 5 Cases of bearish Broadening Tops.   But be aware that there
             were also two instances of what seemed like broadening tops in the Great
             Bull Market from October 1994 to January 2000.   In both cases, they
             led to much higher prices.  That could well happen here, too, since Peerless
             has not given a Sell.  Back in November 1996, the DJI made a breakout above
             a rising resistance, also into all-time high ground.  This last factor is important
             now, too, as it not only shows great strength but also means prices have
             escaped all easily drawn resistance lines.  This makes it much harder for
             the bears to organize a line of defense.

                  

            The Dollar's New Highs Again Today Are Bullish for The Big Banks

  The 3x leveraged Financials' ETF, FAS, continues to be the very best ETF to trade
  with automatic Peerless Buys and Sells, as well as with Closing Power trend-breaks. . 


                       I have been saying that the rally in Finance and Big Bank stocks (which
                       is a result of the Strong Dollar and a very benign Federal Reserve) can
                       not to be trusted if more stocks did not also move higher.  So, we do want to
                       watch the A/D Line now.  But I am encourgaged by how the percentage of
                       stocks in the SP-500 and Russell-1000 that are above their 65-day ma
                       keeps rising, as does the A/D line for these groups of stocks. 

                       A super-Strong Dollar may be quite deadly for US manufacturing.  The discontent
                       on Main Street will continue to grow.  Neither US political party talks
                       about how US manufacturing jobs will be protected in this environment.
                       But then, as we should all know, there can be a very long duration disconnect
                       between Wall Street and Main Street.  Since US politicians usually
                       listen to Big Money, I suspect the trade imbalances growing out of a
                       strong Dollar will not even be an issue in 2016.  All of which means, I think,
                       that Big Banks are one of the best places for new investment money,
                       especially every time Peerless gives a Buy signal or there is some other bullish
                       technical development. The 3x leveraged Financials' ETF, FAS, continues
                       to be the very best ETF to trade with Peerless. 

                                        

                       Sadly, the Yen could be in a "death spiral" like the Weimar DeutchMark
                       or the Argentine Peso in 2002.    Using leveraged derivatives and leveraged
                       FOREX trading, it is much easier now for massive sums of speculative money
                       to drive the Yen lower than it was the DM in 1923 or the Peso in 2002
.
                       This will be tragic for those on fixed incomes in Japan's aging society.  Japan
                       has the highest proportion of older adults of any country.  It also has the
                       highest proportion of indebtedness to GNP among the most industrialed
                       countries.  

                                                        Debt/GNP
                                        Japan           242%
                                        Italy           132.6%
                                        France         93.5%
                                        Germany     78.1%
                                         US               71.8% (CIA numbers in 2013.)
                                        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt-to-GDP_ratio

                       Wall Street plays hard-ball.  Hedge Funds are heavily short the Yen.
                       They certainly will not be deterred by feelings like sympathy or compassion.   
     

                

 
======================================================================================
                                             OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================== 

                        11/5/2014   Only DIA's Closing Power Is Still Rising.  A Retreat
                       from the 17500 Resistance Seems Necessary Now.

                       The DJI rose 100 today to 17485.  Its hypothetical high of
                       17581 tagged the rising resistance line of its broadening top formation. 
                       It will now be much harder for the DJI to keep rising.  Still there is no
                       Peerless Sell signal. This is because the P-I stands at +373 and made a
                       high today and the Accum. Index (IP21) today jumped up to +.12.  These
                       key values prevent a Sell S9, S12 or S15.

                      The rally looks dangerously artificial in that Visa's 6.56 gain today alone
                      contributed 44 points to the DJI's big jump.  The Republican victory has predictably
                      ignited partisan buying.  Emotional buying is exactly what one would expect
                      in a broadening top pattern.  That's why I suggested taking ETF long
                      profits in yesterday's Hotline. 




                       Volume is a problem now.  The OBVPct now stands only at +.087 even though
                       the DJI is a very over-bought 4.3% over the 21-day ma.  Usually this means
                       a rally is running low on fuel.  The engines could lose power.  A dangerous
                       high altitude stall would then becomes a possibility. 

                       In a defensive market such as we have now, the Blue Chips hold up longest.
                       In that vein, the Closing Powers for the IWM, MDY. QQQ and SPY today
                       broke their steep uptrends while the CPs of the DIA has not. 
                       The Hourly DJI is still above its rising resistance line.   Bullishly, too,
                       REITs which are the strongest market group now, are still rising.



       

                       I would think the market needs now to retreat a little.  November's bullishness
                       should hold the market up.  But broadening tops patterns are warnings of
                       dangers ahead in a month or two.  The good news is that in the past Peerless
                       has always given Sell signals at danger points in broadening tops and we
                       have not had such a Sell.  In addition, before a bigger decline, history
                       suggests gold stocks should rally for four to six weeks, at least.  Right
                       now they are in steep declines.

                       Watch to see if the Japanese Yen can break out of its severe downward spin
                       and to see if Crude Oil will ends its sell-off.  These are big factors behind the
                       Dollar's rise.  The EURO made a new low today and Foreign ETFs are
                       still in a downtrend, showing a world-wide recession remains a strong
                       possibility.   In that event, the US markets will surely be pulled down
                       eventually.

                   Foreign ETFS's Weakness below Warns of A World Recession.

To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts, DJI, SP-500, etc...                          If this link does not work - go to http://www.tigersoftware.com/555HL555/stocks/index.htm                             Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY                             NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart     IBB Chart    IWM Chart       MDY Chart                     Hourly DJI-OBV                            NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart     IBB Chart    IWM Chart       MDY Chart                     Hourly DJI-OBV                              Please report any bad links                                          65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500,   for Russell-1000 ,  for DJIA,   for QQQ                          Net Idosc on DJI    -8  (Negative on rally. Therefore bearish for tomorrow.)                                                              Net Idosc Rules               -->125 -19  MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (12/5/2014)   Bullish Plurality                                                                                        Many REITS                 -->79 -5  MINCP stocks       Bearish MINCP Stocks   (12/5/2014)                                                                                      Mostly Natural Resource stocks                       --> 54 +5   New Highs on NASDAQ   38 +11   new lows.   Bullish Plurality                             -->127 +22   New Highs on NYSE   40 -19    Bullish Plurality

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             OLDER HOTLINES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                   11/4/2014    With the Republican victory, 17500 is again our target for the DJI.
                   Peerless remains on a Buy.

                   Unfortunately,   the OBVPct is almost negative and the IP21 is quite mediocre
                   with the DJI 3.9% above the 21-day ma.   The seven previous cases of key values
                   like this suggests an additional 2% rally and then a decline to the lower band. 

                   Were these indicators more positive, we could be more bullish.  History in general
                   has been quite kind to the market in the three months after a Midterm Election. 
                   Since 1928, the S&P 500 has posted a "median return of 7% in the 90 days after
                   a midterm, with returns positive 86 percent of the time", according to Barclays.

                   The main problems now are:

                           1) The broadening top in the DJI.  In 5 of the 6 cases where such a pattern
                           appeared, the DJI reached the rising resistance line (now at 17540) and then
                           fell sharply in what became a bear market in six months.  In the lone
                           exception, the DJI in November 1996 shot up past the rising resistance line
                           and kept rising for 37 more months. 

                          2)   Leadership now is very defensive, consisting mostly of dividend stocks, REITs,
                          bond funds and blue chips.   This means the advance is narrowing.  Thus today,
                          even though the DJI rose 17, the NASDAQ fell and there were 598 more down than
                          up on the NYSE.  The A/D Line is still rising, I must point out and the P-Indicator,
                          which is based on NYSE breadth, is still a quite positive +265.  No Sell S9 seems
                          imminent.   And S9s are the most common Sell signal generally and at reversals down
                          from broadening tops.

                          3) The DJI is now in "over-bought" condition.  It is 3.9% over the 21-day ma.
                          The IP21 (Accumulation Index) stands at an unimpressive +.073.  And, bearishly,
                          the OBVPct is only .001.  Yesterday's numbers were even worse.  The IP21
                          was only +.047 and the OBVPct was a -.08 with the DJI a robust 3.9% over the
                          21-day ma.  I did a study of what happened in the past when yesterday's key
                          IP21 and OBVPct numbers coincided with the DJI being 3.9% over the 21-day
                          ma.   I dismissed as irrelevant the many cases with these key values when
                          the DJI was in a bear market.  There were not many instances in an on-going
                          bull market.  Here is what I found.  In 5 of the 7 cases, the DJI rallied between
                          1.3% and 2.5% higher.  Then it fell to the lower band, at least.  In 4 of the
                          7 cases, the DJI fell more than 10%.

                                    Cases in A Bull Market When
                                    1) DJI was above its 3.7% upper band,
                                    2) IP21 was below +.05 (which it was yesterday)
                                    3) OBVPct was below +.02

                          1)    8/17/1933     DJI rose from 99.4 to 105.3 but then fell to 84.4.
                          Immediate additional 5.9% rally.

                          2)    11/24/1933   DJI rose from 99.5 to 102 but then fell to 95.3.
                         Immediate additional 2.5% rally.

                          3)    8/17/1971    DJI rose from  899.9 to 916.47 but  then fell to 797.97.
                          Immediate additional 1.8% rally.

                          4)    6/24/1975     DJI rose from   869.06 to 881.81 but  then fell to 784.16.
                           Immediate additional 1.4% rally

                          5)     3/30/2000    DJI rose from 10980.25 to 11125.13 but  then fell to 10307.32
                          Immediate additional 1.3% rally

                          6)    11/2/2000     DJI fell from 10880.51 to 10414.49

                          7)    3/1/2001      DJI rose from 10368.86 to 10632.35 but  then fell much lower.
                            Immediate additional 2.5% rally
                                       .

                               What Does The Republican Victory Mean for The Bull Market?

                          We should expect, I think, additional market gains for another month or two
                          now that the uncertainties of the  Congressional Elections are over and the
                          Republicans have taken control of Congress for the first time since 2006. 
                          Many pundits saw this coming.  So, it has been pretty much factored into the
                          market.   We also do not know what initiatives the new Republican
                          Congressional majority will put forth in January.  A massive and
                          expansive public works program would seem more likely now that there are
                          more Republican Governors that could play a big role in overseeing it.
                          They could take credit for a lot of jobs that would be created.  They
                          could dole out a lot federal construction money to their allies.

                          It may turn out, however, that the Republican victory will not be nearly as bullish
                          for Wall Street as it may first appear.  As I have frequently mentioned, Republicans
                          favor balanced budgets and reduced government spending.  In a weak economy, this
                          could well have a severely deflationary effect. 

                          But other points should be made here.  How could Republicans be any kinder to
                          Wall Street than the Obama Administration has been?  The Bush Administration
                          brought criminal action against Enron, WorldComm and Imclone.  Holder,
                          Obama's Attorney General, has specifically instructed his subordinates not to
                          rock the boats of the  biggest banks.  Their highest financial priority was to keep
                          the stock market rising.
      
                          So, not surprisingly, the Republicans have succeeded in making the Democrats
                          look anti-populist, indecisive, weak and complicit in the gathering social inequality
                          which is said to alarm the sensibilities of 2/3 of the American public now.  
                          Amazingly, the growing economic inequality in America was hardly
                          ever mentioned by the Democratic candidates in the closest Senate rates. 
                          Obama's cozy ties with Wall Street may have helped the economic recovery
                          since the 2008 Crash, but it clearly does not play well in Main Street or among
                          many rank and file Democrats who felt betrayed.  This has made getting out the
                          Democratic vote much harder.  A sense of Democratic elitism has grown when
                          they ignore what matters to average families.  As an example, more and more
                          polls in Arkansas, Nebraska and Colorado showed Americans favor a much higher
                          minimum wage.  (Source. )  But this, too, was hardly mentioned by many of the
                          Democratic Senators that lost today, in part because they had sometimes voted
                          against such changes. 

                          The NY Times put it more politely: "The uneven character of the economic recovery 
                          added to a sense of anxiety, leaving voters in a punishing mood, particularly for Democrats in
                          Southern states and the Mountain West". ( Source. )

                                                      

                          One thing for sure, the surviving populist Democrats will likely have much
                          more influence in higher Democratic circles now.  This could be quite troublesome
                          for Wall Street in 2016.                    



=====================================================================================
                                                              OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

             11/3/2014   Remembering 1948, "Go Ahead and Take Some Profits in the ETFS". 
             The Democrats could surprise the pundits.  I am also disconcerted that the
             IP21 reading now is only a little above +.04 even though the DJI is almost 4%
             over the 21-dma.

             17500 on DJI has been our target for when to sell ETFs like IWM.  This
             was based on the fact that the Closing Powers and the NYSE A/D Line are still
             in uptrends and there is no new Peerless Sell.    The extreme weakness now
             in Oil, the Yen and the Euro are all boosting the Dollar by bringing Hot Overseas
             Money into high grade US stocks.  The Big Banks love this.  The REITs'
             strength owes to the prospects of low interest rates for another year.
             But is this enough to send the majority of common stocks higher, especially
             if Europe's economy weakens further and the rising US Dollar causes more
             harm to US manufacturing and exporting from cheaper foreign competition?

                                                     Reasons To Take Profits

             1.) It would not take much to break the Closing Power uptrends now. 



             2.) Using closing prices, the DJI did reach its resistance line
             in what must be construed to be a  bearish broadening top formation. 
             Moreoverm the DJI's Accumulation Inddex now stands at a weak-looking +.047
             given its position 3.9% over its 21-day ma.  The OPct is also a bearish
            -.08.  (Tomorrow night, I will run these parameters past earlier run-ups
             like we have just seen and report what I find.)



             3) The Tiger Options' Trading system gave a Sell S34 yesterday based
             on its slight CCI non-confirmation of the new high juxtaposed with the short-term
             over-bought position of the SP-500.  This explicitly is for taking profits in
             over-bought markets.



             I certainly think also Wall Street expects a Republican win, which
             would be an excuse to make prices jump some more.  See Yahoo's article tonight:
             If the GOP scores the Senate, it could be bullish for the economy. 

             4.) But a surprise victory for the Democrats that allows them to retain control of the
             Senate would likely be bearish, though not as much as Truman's win over Dewey in 1948.
             when the DJI then suddenly fell 10% in less than a month.  The NY Times
             places the odds at 51% to 49% that the Democrats will keep control of the Senate.    
                                                       Who Will Win the Senate?

                5.) The leadership now comes mostly from bank and dividend paying stocks.  
                Defensive strength at the end of a bull market is a warning that
                Professional Money is "playing it very safe".   If the market narrows
                enough because of this skepticism, the A/D Line will lag and we will get
                major Sell S9s.

                  10/31         11/3        no.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS        100.0 100.0   7
EDUC.            90.0 100.0   10
REITS            93.8  93.8   80
INSURANCE        92.7  92.7   41 
BIG FIDEL        85.2  92.6   27   Fidelity's Biggest Positions in its Sector Funds
REGIONAL BANKS   90.2  90.2   41

DOW JONES        83.3  86.7   30
BOND FUNDS       82.5  78.1  137

QQQ              78.8  78.8   99 missing one
UTILITIES        75    78.6   42
BEVERAGE         88.9  77.8   18 
FINANCE          76.9  74.0   101
SP500            71.6  73.4   455 missing 45
FIDELITY         75.6  73.3   45  Fidelity Select Funds good for timing general mkt.
Home Bldg        71.4  71.4   21
Software         70.8  70.8   65 

Semi-Cond        63.3  70.8   48
RUSSELL-1000     69.6  70.3  953
FIDSTKS          65.1  67.4   43 Biggest position in each Fidel.Select Fund
Gaming           66.7  66.7   12
MILTARY          74.1  66.7   27
HIGH PRICE       57.6  61.0   59 

COMPUTERS        52.9  58.8   34 
TRANSPORTATION   58.6  58.6   29
FUNDS            59.8  58.3  132 
ALL 4909 STOCKS  57.6  57.4  4909
BIOTECHS         55.1  55.9  195 
AUTOS            53.2  55.3   47 
RETAIL           54.7  53.1   64
CHEM             53.   52.7   55
GREEN            47    52.6   38

PIPELINES        25.0  41.7   12
CHINA            37.9  41.4   58
FOOD             44.0  40.0   25

LOWPRICE         34.6  33.3  538
INDMATER         36.4  33.9  118
COMMODITIES      31.0  32.0  128 

COAL             14.3  28.6    7
SOLAR            24.1  27.6   29
ETFs (Foreign)   30.2  25.4   63 

OILGAS           18.9  18.9  196

GOLD              1.3   0     75 

=====================================================================================
                                                      OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================
           
             10/31/2014     17500 on DJI Is Our Target for Profit-Taking on ETFs.   

             Peerless still has not given a Sell.   Of course, the temptation to take profits
             is very high.   The DJI is up 8% in only 11 trading days and made a new closing high
             There was a reversal day in biotechs on Friday.  But the Closing Powers for DIA,
             SPY, QQQ and are still rising. One could sell when the steep uptrendlines
             are broken.   In that case, note that the daily DJI's uptrend crosses at 17067 and the
             DJI's rising resistance line crosses at 17550.  The hourly DJI uptrend now crosses
             at 17155. 



              My judgement is, instead, that we should hold until the DJI tags 17500 and reaches
              the rising red resistance-line shown below.  I base this on the lack of a Peerless Sell,
              the unusual bullishness of Novembers, how the collapsing Yen and falling Euro are bringing
              money into US stocks and, of course, the rising Closing Powers.  If you want to hedge, then
              consider shorting some of gold and silvery stocks in our Bearish MINCPs.   A panic
              is very much in evidence in these stocks.



                                                         Bullish Novembers
                
             Novembers are ordinarily quite bullish.  The DJI rises 68.1% of the time
             over the next 21-trading days,  though only 51.1% of the time over the next week. 
             Novembers infrequently give Peerless Sells.  November Sells have occurred in only 8 years
             of the 86 years   since 1928 and only 3x when the DJI was in a bull market.   The DJI averaged
             only 2.7% when there was a November Sell in a bull market. 

                                      11/14/1980   Sell S9 ... decline to lower band.  Gain of 5.3%
                                      11/22/1983   Sell S4 ... decline to lower band.  Gain of 3.1%
                                      11/18/2009   Sell S9 ... loss.  DJI continued to rally Loss of 0.4%
                                      -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                             Only a decline of 2.7% using Peerless
              

                                               DJI Broadening Tops: 1928-2014

              The biggest problem now for the market is the DJI;s unmistakable broadening top pattern.
              These are rare for the DJI but in 5 of 6 cases they brought sharp selloffs and after one
               or two failed last rally attempts, they brought bear markets.  The notable exception,
              interestingly, was in November 1996 when the DJI ignored the rising resistance line and
              simply kept on rallying strongly.   All the significant tops with these patterns occurred
              later than Thanksgiving:  They took place in  December (1968, 1981), January (2000),
              February (1980) or August  (1987).  This should give us a little more time.  .

             1968   Oct-breakout 950-990 Early December Top. S1  Bull Market Peak, Bear Market started in June..
             1980    February 1980 Peak at Rising Resistance. S9   Then Bear Market.  
             1981    Early December Peak at rising Resistance. S9.  8% Decline.  Bear Market began 6 months later.
             1987    August peak at rising resistance. S4. Bear market began.
             1996     Nov rally past rising resistance line.  Bull market.
             2000    January peak at rising resistance line. S9.S12 Bull market peak.  Bear market followed
                   
                     Compare the charts of DJI Broadening Tops. 


                                              Collapsing YEN and Very Weak Euro

                     The Japanese Yen and the Euro are now more than 3 standard deviations
                     below their Least Squares Line and Channel.  More weakness seems very
                     likely.   This will bring into US equities and bonds an enormous amount of
                     overseas Hot Money.  Hedge funds will sell short these currencies, thereby
                     driving them down further.  Their experiment in Quantitative Easing may
                     end disastrously for those living on fixed incomes there.  Eventually, the
                     uncertainties of extremely unstable world currencies will be very damaging
                     to world trade.  But for now, the US markets will probably benefit.  US dividend
                     and blue chip stocks as well as importing companies will be the biggest
                     beneficiaries.    US exporting firms and traditional hedges against inflation
                     in the US (namely American gold and silver stocks) are likely to remain
                     under pressure.   Gold and Silver stocks dominate the Bearish MINCP stocks.

                                                  

                     

=====================================================================================================
                                                                             OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================================                     

                     10/30/2014     Stick with the long positions.  The Bull Market Buy B1
                    remains unreversed.  I think there is a good chance the DJI is forming
                    a broadening top.  This means there could be a wild move up to 17500.
                    As long as the price, Closing Power and breadth uptrends all are rising,
                    I think we have to what is often quite hard, namely, sit on our hands
                    and do nothing, letting long profits run.



         
                    Today's the DJI gained 221 points.  141 of that owed to Visa's huge
                    22 point (10%) advance.   While one stock should not be allowed
                    to color too much our opinion of the market, I think Visa's better
                    than expected earnings have to be judged to mean consumer spending
                    is still strong and could well get better and very low interest rates
                    may be here throughout 2015.   That Master Card also beat its earnings
                    estimates and rose 9.4% today would seem to confirm this bullish interpretation.
                    So, viewed this way, the market's steep 7% rally in 10 days may gather
                    more buyers as it rises.  At the same time, I suspect profit-takers may
                    well hesitate or raise the prices for their offerings.   This is exactly what one
                    would expect given the wildly emotional swings of fear and greed in a
                    broadening top pattern.

================================================================================
                                                          OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

                    10/29/2014     Stick with the long positions.  The Bull Market Buy B1
                    remains unreversed.  I think there is a good chance the DJI is forming
                    a broadening top.  This means there could be a wild move up to 17500.

                                   Note the purple resistance line that parallels the
                                   green support line below.  There will be some resistance
                                   here, but the steep (thin green) price uptrend has not been
                                   violated.



                                               Hourly DJI Uptrend-Lines of Support
              
                                                          Strong Dollar Policy

                    True, some of the FED's pronouncements sound much more hawkish, but
                    interest rates are very low and seasonality is very good.  It does appear as
                    though the Fed prefers a "strong Dollar" policy now.   This will certainly
                    help the big banks and hurt US manufacturing companies, like Ford and GM.
                    Wall Street loves a "strong Dollar".   It makes the US stocks and bonds seem
                    to be safe repositories for Big Money from all over world.  Until the fall in
                    exports causes big lay-offs, the FED will continue to be the Big Banks'
                    best ally within the US Government, as well as the most powerful, by far.



                    High stock prices should follow.  In bullish trends, more than 2/3 of the Buy B1s
                    bring direct rallies to the upper band.  We are still 2% below that.  In addition,
                    the Closing Powers for the various ETFs are still rising.  So is the NYSE A/D Line.  
                    The Hourly DJI was unable again today to break its uptrend.  Someone keeps
                    buying all minor dips to it.  The Net IDOSC rose today, indicating tomorrow
                    should bring higher prices for the DJI. 

                    While Crude Oil could be bottoming, which would boost the DJI-30, Gold
                    and Silver got clobbered again.  The two biggest gold mining companies in the world, ABX
                    and NEM, plunged to new lows today.  This is bullish for the general equities' market
                    since a gold stock rally often sets up a general market decline.  It is amazing how often
                    gold stocks rally for at least 2 months just before the market suffers a significant decline.
                   

                                                     POTHOLE BOUNCES BACK

                    I checked what happens when the market hits "potholes", like we just did.
                    See Table 1 below.

                    How is a "pothole" defined?  There occurs a sharp DJI decline of 6% to 13.5%
                    that takes less than 4 week from peak to nadir.  A "V" bottom forms and
                    then there is an equally quick recovery back to the old highs. 

                    The most important thing I found was how often the DJI made, at least, a nominal
                    new closing high after falling in and then bouncing back up from a "pothole". 
                    There are a few failures to make a new high, but a Peerless Sell signal would
                    normally be expected in these cases.                                               

                   After a new high was made, the DJI most often made only a nominal additional
                    move.   In only 4 of the 21 cases did the DJI rise more than 14% or more from its lows.
                    Still in 17 of the 21 cases, the DJI rose at least 9% from its lows.   Since the DJI
                    is only up 5 1/2% from its lows so far, it could well rise another 3.5% to 4.5%
                    more.   This would represent a move, not just to a new high, but to the rising resistance
                    level in the broadening top.   For now, that remains enough of a probability
                    to make us not take profits yet.

                 
                                       Why did the market hit a "pothole" this month?      
                   A lot has to do with how interally divided and contradictory the FED is.

                   How else can one explain the contradictory FOMC minutes on the dangers of
                   inflation?

                  "The risks of inflation persistently running below its 2% target have declined somewhat."
                                                          vs.
                   "The ...market-based inflation expectations have come down somewhat and if  inflation
                   continues to run below normal, future rate increases will be delayed."

 

 Potholes      Depth   Subsequent Peak up  Then what?   Environment
                       from Bottom
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Nov-Dec 1928   11%    21%                 10% decline Rising Market
---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 August 1930    10%    12% marginal NH     30% decline Falling Market    
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Jan 1945        6%    11%                  5% decline Rising Market
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 March-Apr 1955  7%    10%                  4% decline Rising Market
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Sept-Nov 1955  9.5%   11% marginal NH      5% decline in Rising Market
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 May-July 1956  9.0%   11% marginal NH     11% decline in Rising Market
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 Nov-Dec  1956   6%     7% marginal NH      9% decline in Rising Market
------------------------------------------------------------------------
 July-Sept 1968  6%    13%                  9% decline in Rising Market 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
 June-July 1970  7%    10%                   4% decline in Bear Market     
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(April-May 1972  4%     5% marginal NH      6% decline in Rising Market)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Jan-Feb 1974    7.5%  11%                 12% decline in Bear Market
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Sept-Oct 1974  13.5%  15% marginal NH     15% decline in Bear Market
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Nov 1981-Dec    9%    11% marginal NH      7% decline in Rising Market
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Sept-Oct 1982  5.5%    7% marginal NH      5% decline in Bear Market
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Mar-Apr 1986     5%    7% marginal NH     5.5% decline in Rising Market
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 May-Jun 1987     5%   23%                   8% decline in Rising Market
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Nov-Dec 1987    10%   13% marginal NH       8% decline in Bear Market
------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Nov-Dec 1999     7%   10.5% marginal NH    5.5% decline in Rising Market
------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Sept-Nov 2004    6%   11.0%                 4% decline in Bull Market
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Aug-Sept 2010   6.5%  14%                   4% decline in Bull Market
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Nov-Dec 2011     8%    9% marginal NH       4% decline in Bull Market
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Sept-Oct 2013    6%    9%                   2.3% decline in Bull Market  
=============================================================================
=============================================================================

     
         Failure to Make New Closing High

 Potholes      Depth   Subsequent Peak up  Then what?   Environment
                       from Bottom
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Sept-Oct 1978   6%     5% S9 S12           13% decline Rising Market
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Mar-Apr 2000   8.5%    8% S2                7% decline Rising Market
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Sept-Oct 2000  12%     10% S2               6% decline in Impending Bear Mkt
----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Jan-Mar 2014    7%      8%                  3.5% decline in Rising Market                                          

================================================================================
                                                          OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

                    10/28/2014    No Sell Yet as DJI Reaches 17000.   Market internals
                    today were excellent.   On the NASDAQ, the number of new highs jumped
                    from 24 to 96.  MAXCPs are 6x more numerous than MINCPs.   The
                    number of NYSE advancing stocks was 2654 and up volume was more
                    than 6x down volume.  The breadth statistics were the best of the last
                    12 months. Expect higher prices.  This FED is risk averse after its
                    failures in 2008s.  There is no inflation now.  They are aware of the weakness
                    in overseas' economies.  Why would they talk of raising rates except in a distant
                    futuristic scenario?  

                    Why would the market keep rallying?  This is a bullish time of year. 
                    The DJI has risen 63.8% of the time in the week following October 28th
                    with a very large average gain, +0.9%.  Perhaps, Republicans will support
                    a massive road repairing and a new national transportation program as they
                    did in 1925 and 1955.  The stock market took off to the upside in these years.

                                             A Partisan Victory Rally until January?

                    However,   I suspect that if the Republicans win the Senate (which I expect
                    will happen) then they will feel their strategy of very limited cooperation with the
                    White House is vindicated.  There will then be no launching of any grand new
                    domestic spending program.  The deflationary fiscal aspects of this victory
                    will become clearer next year when the market may turn weak again after
                    a partisan celebration rally in November and December's seasonal bullishness.
                   
                                                 Peerless Remains Bullish

                    In more than 2/3 of the past cases of a Bull Market Buy B1,
                    the DJI rallies to the upper band.  That is approximately 1.4% away.  The
                    Peerless key values have turned positive, but the IP21 is only +.004.  (The
                    negative V-I reading does not come into play in October. ) 

                    A high volume reversal tomorrow or Thursday ending with a close over 17101
                    would likely bring a Sell S12.  The keys here would be that the DJI closes
                    more than 2.7% over the 21-day ma and the IP21 was below -.02.

                    However, if there is no reversal and the DJI does not close near the day's low,
                    the IP21 will keep rising.  That would likely avoid a Peerless S12.  In that
                    case, a broadening top scenario might play out here and the DJI could tag 17540.                     




                          
                                                 American Pothole Humour

                     
 
                           What Happens after the DJI Hits a 6% Deep "Pothole"?              

                  The DJI fell almost 7% from its high on 9/19 to its low on 10/16.   It has
                   now risen 5.5% from its low.  Can this dip and recovery be compared to
                   hitting a "pothole"?  In this land of neglected infrastructure,  American "potholes"
                   on side-roads are now quite numerous.  They are holes in a road that
                   usually only cause a jolt to the driver but most often do not damage the car or
                   stop the car from continuing along, 

                   Is this also true of the DJI when it hits a "pothole"?   Tomorrow
                   we see what happened to the DJI in the past when hit similar sized potholes.                                                

             

================================================================================
                                                          OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

                   10/27/2014   

                   The most common result of a Bull Market Buy B1 like we have
                   now is a rally to the upper band before there is another decline to the lower
                   band.   Right now, key indexes like the DJI, SPY-500, SPY and IWM are still
                   seeking to over-come the resistance of their 65-dma averages.  It will not
                   take much for all the first four to surpass this resistance.  The Net IDOSC
                   shows an oversold -26.  That may help produce a rally tomorrow. The Hourly
                   DJI uptrend is intact, too.  Our Stocks' Hotline has been entirely long
                   since soon  after the Buy B1.  I think the surprises will be on the upside.                   



                               Market Indexes and ETFs Below 65-dma
                                                10/27       65-dma      IP21      CL%-Pr%
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                                DJI          16818     16840         -.012
                                DIA          167.88    168.11        .002       +2.2%
                                SPY          196.16    196.48       -.022        +8.9%
                                SP-500      1962       1964         +.013
                                IWM        111.02    112.21       -.037      +5.7%

                               Above 65-dma
                                                   10/27       65-dma      IP21      CL%-Pr%
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                               IBB              290.44    267.67       +.125     0%
                               FAS              103.27    101/86       -.04       -1.0% 
                               IYT (transp) 154.49  149.44      +.088     -8.0% 


                      When we look at the Percent of Stocks over the 65-dma, we can see that
                      the DJI, SP-500, QQQ and Russell-1000 each show about 50% of their
                      stocks above the 5-dma.  A further advance from here would bullishly
                      mean a majority of stocks are back above the support of their 65-dma.
                      This is very important.  Bull markets in equities cannot long be led solely
                      by dividend stocks.   Even the Biotech strength is defensive, in that these
                      stocks are much less dependent upon the health of other stocks or even
                      the economy.

                                                    Pct of stocks above 65-dma
                                                    -------------------------------------
                                                    10/27
                              -----------------------------------------------------------------
                              Reits               87.5%
                              Bonds             78,8%
                              Big Banks      71.4%
                                  
                               QQQ               54.5%
                               SP-500            51.2%
                               Russell-1000 50.9%
                               DJI-30            46.7%   Includes oil stocks  CVX 13.5% below high,  10% off its highs
                                                                    and high-priced IBM 18% off its yearly high.  (These 3 stocks,
                                                                    the DOW JONES Components' Committee cannot drop from the
                                                                    Index.)
                            
                               Oil/Gas            14.3%
                               Gold./Silver      5.3%
                               Foreign ETFs  4.8%

                                                           The Drop in Oil Prices
                                             Has Significant Causes and Consequences:
                                           Some Very Bullish and Some Very Bearish.

                      The steep decline in oil and gas prices is boosting transportation stocks, of
                      course, but it's biggest impact is giving consumers a little more money and
                      lowering inflation pressures.  As long as the Relative Strength lines for
                      Crude Oil (CL-1600 is perpetual crude contract) and natural gas, I would not
                      try to pick a bottom based on the gathering Closing Power and Accum. Index
                      divergences.   The price drop is quite rapid.  Many smaller natural resource stocks
                      along with the oil service and drilling sector are taking a big beating.  They
                      show ample amounts of red Distribution and S14-dumping.  They do not
                      show any of the signs of a bottom. 

                      The falling natural resource prices is usually interpreted to be a sign that
                      the economies on foreign shores are suffering a severe turn downwards, especially
                      where the powers-that-be abhor counter-cyclical Keynesian fiscal spending
                      policies to prevent a Recession from becoming a Depression as much as
                      the staunchest Republicans in the US did in 1934 or do now in 2013.
                      The steepening Foreign ETFs decline shows just how dangerous the
                      recession in Europe and many developing nations has become.  The US
                      urged economic retaliation against Russia is also having a much bigger effect
                      in Central Europe where Russia is a natural trading partner than in the
                      US.     



                      
                      I wouldn't be surprised if the steep fall in oil and gas prices is a result of
                      some hidden and deliberate manipulation by the US government and/their
                      financial Allies, the big US bank cartel, to drive prices lower in their economic
                      war with Russia over control of the Ukraine.  A lot is at stake.  Foreign
                      markets for American investments and goods are essential to make up
                      for declining demand here, as good-paying manufacturing jobs disappear
                      overseas.  

                      The good news for us is that with Gold, Silver, Oil, Gas and Food Commodities,
                      too, all in a decline, it would seem the Dollar must stay strong.  This will give the FED
                      a free hand to shore up the markets using low interest rates, all without having
                      to worry about inflation. 

                      Sometimes, it's easier to see price breakdowns using charts that only plot
                      the Closes.  I like to do this when the emphasis is on relative strength.
                     
                      Natural Gas


                      Crude Oil   
      
                   
                          >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart          IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV 

                            Please report any bad links
                         
               65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500   for Russell-1000   for DJIA
                          Net Idosc on DJI    -26 (OverSold and therefore Bullish for tomorrow.)  Net Idosc Rules
               65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  

              -->99 +37     MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/27/2014)   Bullish Plurality   
                -->55 +14      MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/27/2014)

                      --> 24     New Highs on NASDAQ    39  new lows.   Bearish Plurality     
                        --> 69  New Highs on NYSE   32    Bullish Plurality                               


====================================================================================
                                                               OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

                   10/24/2014        I still suspect the current Bull Market Buy B1 will not
                   allow much of a decline until the DJI tags its 16900 resistance.  In fact,
                   I think there's a good chance it will run to a new closing high above 17280.
                   I say this because I remember how the DJI frequently rallied in late
                   October and November in 1968, 1972, 1980 and 2004 when a Republican 
                   victory boosted stocks. 

                   Most likely, a bearish broadening top pattern is forming.  This will take
                   by surprise all the bears who thought the DJI would keep falling this past week.
                   Sometimes, the market does whatever is necessary to take by surprise
                   the most obstinate or the most publicly vocal.  Running in shorts now
                   will make the market that much weaker after a DJI new high. 





                   A small decline, however, cannot be ruled out.  Technically, the Hourly DISI-OBV
                   Line failed to confirm Friday's rally and the Net IDOSC for the DJI-30 fell to -18,
                   despite the DJI rally. The Hourly DJI , I must add, is still in an uptrend and bullishly
                   broke its downtrend.



                   The DJI, DIA and IWM are still below their 65-day mvg.avgs, but QQQ, the NASDAQ
                   and IBB are not.  Bullishly,  all the Closing Powers are safely back above their 21-day
                   mvg. avgs.

                   IBB, representing the biggest NASDAQ biotechs, is clearly the strongest of tho
                   indexes and ETFs shown below.

                                                        Current          65-dma                IP21       CP%-
                                                         Price              Price                                  Pr%
                                ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 DJI                 16805.41       16856 flat          -.008    
                                 DIA                     167.74       168.14 falling -.013       -.024    CP above its 21-day ma
                                 QQQ                     98.62           97.53                -.02      +.022     CP above its 21-day ma
                                 SP-500               1964.58       1962.37 flat       +.012
                                 SPY                     196.43          196.13 flat      -.064     +.023     CP above its 21-day ma
                                 IWM                   111.07          112.23 falling -.052     +.016     CP above its 21-day ma

                                 FAS                      102.71          101.66 rising -.040     -.040     CP above its 21-day ma
                                 IBB                      288.77          266.48 rising +.083      0         CP above its 21-day ma

                      Some of the biggest NASDAQ Biotechs and quite a few REITs are making new highs.
                      In finding the best Biotechs after a sell-off , we want to see the first that make flat
                      topped breakouts, high Accumulation and confirming Closing Power strength.  At this
                      point, three lesser known biotechs show these characteristics: AMAG, CTIX and
                      possibly IMMY.  Here are all the most interesting Biotechs I can find now.

                      >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart          IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV  FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs

                            Please report any bad links
                         
               65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500   for Russell-1000   for DJIA
                          Net Idosc on DJI    -18 (Falling.  Expect decline tomorrow.)  Net Idosc Rules
               65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  

              -->61 +14     MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/24/2014)   Bullish Plurality   
                -->41 -11      MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/24/2014)

                      --> 30 -2     New Highs on NASDAQ    31 +10   new lows.   Bearish Plurality     
                        -->38 -18  New Highs on NYSE   12 -4    Bullish Plurality     


==================================================================================
                                                         OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================

                   10/23/2014      I suspect the current Bull Market Buy B1 will not permit much
                   of a decline until the DJI tags its 16900 resistance.  But the DJI, the SP-500
                   and the NASDAQ must first power upwards past their now falling 65-day ma.
                   It is not clear that they have the strength now to do that. The Hourly DJI chart
                   shows Up-Hour Volume is running lower than Down-Hour volume.  The IP21s
                   are negative.  There are more NASDAQ Closing Power new lows than new highs.
                   This remains a defensive recovery.

                   I was impressed, however, by how today's market quickly over-powered the bearishness
                   of yesterday. Leading Biotechs made new highs.  Falling oil prices allowed Airlines
                   to keep rising.  Military stocks like Lockheed and General Dynamics won their
                   individual battles with the 65-dma.  Interestingly, Gold continued to tarnish.  If a top
                   were about to be made just before a major sell-off, history teaches us first to expect
                   a quick run-up in Gold.  Since that is not true now, I would continue to trust the
                   Peerless Buy signal.

                                Will The Key Indexes Reverse at Their 65dma?

                   Our Short Selling book teaches us that a 65-dma is more likely to bring a  
                   reversal when:
                                          1)   the 65-dma is falling.  (SPY has turned flat)
                                          2)   the Closing Power is lagging/breaks its uptrend. (SPY's CP%-Pr%>0.)
                                          3)   the Accumulation Index is negative. (SPY's IP21 is -.128)

                   Only the third condition is true for SPY.



                    If the indexes do fall back from their 65-dma, it may well set up Diamond Formations
                    which actually may better hold the market up until January.  A shallow decline from
                    here would give the markets a chance to successfully test their recent lows or, at least,
                    decline enough so that when they reverse, to establish a more sustainable uptrendline.

                    On the other hand, if they rise straight up from here and make new highs,
                    they will set up a bearish Broadening Top Formations.  You can see how these
                    patterns may be taking shape in DJI, SP-500 and NASDAQ.

                         Repubican Partisan Rallies Should Be Sold,    
                               Not Bought,  in December and January. 

                    This market reminds me of those occurring in late October when
                    Republicans were about to win a big political victory in elections that
                    seemed uncertain at the time: 1968, 1972, 1980, 2000 and 2004. 
                    Selling into the strength created by partisan buying proved a
                    good strategy as prices fell the next year.
   
                                   10/22       11/4       12/2       
                     1968      963.14    946.23     983,34   peak before bear market...
                     1972      932.12    984.12  1023.93  1051.70 on 1/11/1973.  Bear market followed.
                     1980      955.12    937.20    974.40   1004.68 on 1/6/1981.  Decline followed.
                     2000      10227    10818     10374     10945.75 on 1/3/2001.  Bear Market Followed.
                     2004       9758     10315      10585    10828.19 on 12/29/2004. March 2005 high was not
                                                                             taken out until Feb 2006.

                   
                >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart          IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV  FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs

                            Please report any bad links
                         
               65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500   for Russell-1000   for DJIA
                          Net Idosc on DJI    +14 (Falling.  Expect decline tomorrow.)  Net Idosc Rules
               65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  (not updated tonight, will be this weekend.)

             -->47 -33     MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/23/2014)    
                -->52 -4    MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/23/2014)  Bearish Plurality

                     --> 32 +19     New Highs on NASDAQ    21 +2   new lows.   Bearish Plurality      
                        --> 56  +26      New Highs on NYSE   16 -1    Bullish Plurality     


===================================================================================
                    10/22/2014    The current Bull Market Buy B1 should not permit much of a
                    decline until the DJI gets back to its 16900 resistance.  That had been
                    the support level until its failure sent the DJI downward in late September.
                    Today's sell-off is a warning, though, that resistance can come in at
                    a falling 21-dma, especially when an external event hits the market by surprise.
                    A terrorist attack in the US would, of course, quickly change our game-plan.  



                    The seasonal tendency is slightly bearish for the DJI for the next 5 trading
                    days.   Since 1965, the DJI has risen only 42.6% of the time over this
                    period after October 22nd.  The following two weeks, however,
                    are quite bullish.  The DJI rallies 70% of the time over the ten trading
                    days after October 29th.              

                    We see a defensive market now, where Bonds and Reits act as havens for
                    money which is avoiding risk.  Who can blame investors for timidity now
                    when a blue chip like IBM is now 20% off its yearly highs and a growth stock
                    Chipotle swoons 45 points despite with its expansion and its wonderful, healthy
                    food.   Right now, stocks that tend to escape much of the dangers of a business
                    slowdown are favored.  This means that biotechs, like IBB and AMGN, that have already
                    risen back above their 65-dma, are acting as the market's "leaders".  So long
                    as their Closing Powers are rising, I would think the market will stay on
                    an upward path. .  

                    But we do want now to watch key stocks that reach a falling 65-dma to see if they
                    can get past this resistance.  FAS and DAL will be important ones to watch.
                    It will also be difficult for stocks like JPM to get very far above a broken neckline
                    in their head/shoulders patterns.  And particularly difficult for further rallies will
                    be any recovery back to a resistance level that has previously been support
                    on many occasions.  GRA illustrates this.

                    I take the failure of Gold and Silver to rise today even with a new terrorist attack
                    in Canada's capital to be a signal that Deflation forces are ascendant.  This
                    definitely makes a business slow-down in the months ahead a dangerous
                    possibility.   Nothing in Europe has changed to avert a deeper recession
                    there.   No big fiscal stimulus has been started.  A Europeon "Quantiative
                    Easing" will help the markets there, but do little to lower unemployment.
                    Europe is also being hit hard by new trading bans with Russia.  The outcome
                    is that American multinationals will likely be facing a slow-down in the next
                    quarter.   The November Jobs' Report will be awaited anxiously. 
 
                >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart          IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV  FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs

                            Please report any bad links
                         
               65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500   for Russell-1000   for DJIA
                          Net Idosc on DJI    +30 to +30  (Oversold but also strong)  Net Idosc Rules
               65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  

                       -->80 -28     MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/22/2014)   Bullish Plurality
                -->56 +36    MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/22/2014)   
                                                                  
                 --> 13 -17     New Highs on NASDAQ    19 +8   new lows.   Bearish Plurality      
                     -->  30 -27      New Highs on NYSE   17 + 8     Bullish Plurality    

====================================================================================
                                            OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

                    10/21/2014     The current Bull Market Buy B1 is quite reliable.  Any retreat
                    from here should be minor.  As such, the odds are more than 2:1 that the DJI
                    will reach the upper band before another new low is made.  The Closing Powers
                    moved up handily today, especially for IWM, IBB and FAS, our favorite ETF
                    plays on most new Peerless Buy signals.  Note also the remarkable improvement 
                    in the NYSE A/D Line statistics.   The ratio of advances to declines keeps improving.  
                    There was also a big jump in the percentage of all stocks above their 65-dma.
                    These are all bullish signs. 

                            Improving Breadth is Bullish

                                                 Adv          Dec    Ratio
                                  10/16        2235       962        2.32
                                  10/17        2090      1113       1.88
                                  10/20        2357       830        2.84
                                  10/21         2615       583        4.49

                     Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma versus DJIA

                           10/13       10/14     10/15        10/16    10/17    10/20       10/21
        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       A-Z stks     17.3%   17.5%    18.6%     20.3%    20.7%  24.6%  29.7%      n= ~ 4940  stocks
       DJI              16321       16315    16142    16117      16380   16400    16615

                                                           

                     Male chauvinism, maybe, but I noticed this past Sunday that one of the under 30, blonde
                      talking heads on Yahoo and Bloomberg (I can't recall her name) said that
                    "all the people she talked to believed the decline was not over" and that this week
                     the market would surely again be falling.  At the time, I thought that this was 
                     probably a perfect example where contrary thinking should be applied.  I didn't
                     mention it here, for fear of being called a "sexist" and an "ageist", but now I think
                     it was my duty to write it up as a potentially good clue of where the market would
                     go.    Next time, I will.
                                              
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart          IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV  FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs
 
                            Please report any bad links
                         
                65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500   for Russell-1000 
                          Net Idosc on DJI    +30 to +30  (Oversold but also strong)  Net Idosc Rules
               65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors             

                       -->108  +48     MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/21/2014)   Bullish Plurality
                -->20 -5    MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/21/2014)   
                                                                  
                 --> 30 +18     New Highs on NASDAQ    11 -5  new lows.   Bullish Plurality      
                     -->  57      New Highs on NYSE   9     Bullish Plurality      
                   

Cracks in The Market's Profits' Outlook                     The Bull Market Buy B1 scored a big victory by producing a huge 215 gain in the DJI today                     despite a 19 point two-day free-fall in IBM (It's share buy back strategy has back-fired.                     The company seems now to have no revenue growth plan, according to the                     New York Times.   The DJI's gain was all the more remarkable given the 7% plunge "                   in Coca-Cola today.  (More and more people understand the deadly the soft drink-sugar-diabetes                     connection and epidemic that grips America.)                       But good healthy food is not enough to keep a company's stock rising.                       Though the NASDAQ rose mightily 103 points (2%) today, I suggest that we should                      see bloated CEO pay  and minimum wage employment are on a collision course                      with rising stock prices.  Chipotle's took a 45.5  point hit today.   As it happened, I had lunch                      today at Chipotle.  They were as busy as ever.  The food was a good as ever.  But I noticed that                      the servers are getting downright surly. I think it's clear that they all know that their                      $9/hour pay is unacceptable, especially when CMG's two co-CEOs each are paying themselves                      a whopping $25 million apiece this year.                                                  The "Times Are Changin".                      In March CMG shareholders delivered a non-binding vote of 3:1 against                      the CEOs; current pay plan.  Things will get ugly if CMG's stock starts to                      fall.   And that might well happen if they are forced to raise their wages.                      More and more cities and s few states are raising the minimum wage way beyond the                      current $7.25 Federal minimum wage.   That will soon put a crimp on profits.                     IBM SHOWS THAT BUY BACKS are NOT A GOOD LONG-TERM SUBSTITUTE                     FOR GROWTH.    This is a very common practice among big companies seeking to                     meet earnings' expectations to boost a stock's price.  If the stock starts to fall, buy-backs                     can become very costly.

CMG SHOWS THAT HEALTHY FOOD IS NOT ENOUGH IF PROFITS DEPEND                     HEAVILY UPON  EXPLOITATION WAGES COMPARED TO CEO'S PAY.                     Low pay for workers and super-high pay for CEOs are universal norms.

                    What would happen to the stock market if the minimum wage rose to $10, $12, $15
                    or $20/hour?  What would happen if unhealthy soda drinks were heavily taxed?
                    What will happen to companies whose profits are mostly based on huge buy-backs
                    start to see sharp declines in their shares' prices. .                      
                                           
                                            Sea Tac  $15 now!
                                            Seattle      $15/hour by 2018
                                            Los Angeles - Mayor proposes $15.15 by 2019               
                                            New York $13.13/hr for workers in large businesses helped with city subsidies.
                                            St. Petersburg  $12.50  Jan 1, 2015
                                            San Francisco - vote to raise min wage to $15/hr by 2018.  10.74/hr now
                                            Santa Fe  $10.66/hr now
                                            San Jose  $10,15/hr back in in 2012                                              
                                            San Diego  $11.50 in three years to be placed on ballot over veto of Mayor.
                                            Hawaii $10.10/hr
                                            Washington    State $9.32/hour now
                                            Connecticut $10.10 by law on  January 2017
                                            Vermont 10.50 by 2018
                                             Maryland $10.10 in 2018
                                             Oregon    $9.25 in 2015
                                           Massachusetts $9.00 in 2015
                                            Federal minimum wage. $7.25

                             

===================================================================================
                                                       OLDER HOTLINES
===================================================================================

                   10/20/2014    Resistance has been reached for the DJI, SP-500, QQQ
                   and NASDAQ.  This may fool people. The Bull Market Buy B1 is reliable
                   and suggests that any retreat, if there is one, will be minor.  The odds are
                   2:1 the DJI will reach the upper band before another new low is made,
                   if we judge from past Buy B1s in bull markets.   IWM Closing Power is now
                   bullishly above its 21-dma.  The biotech ETFs, IBB and BBH, have succeeded
                   in getting back ABOVE their 65-dma.  

                .   Meanwhile, there has been a steady improvement  in the NYSE A/D Line statistics. 
                   The A/D Line downtrend will be clearly broken  with one more good breadth day.

                                                 Adv         Dec
                                  10/16       2235       962
                                  10/17       2090      1113
                                  10/20       2357       830

                   Interestingly, the percentage of ALL the stocks we follow above their 65-dma has
                   been quietly rising for each of the last five trading days.  This must be bullishly construed.  


                                      
                                 Peerless Signals Superimposed on NASDAQ.



                   Any minor declines that develop in here will probably be tracked
                   well by the Hourly DJI and trendbreaks.  
                   
                                                      Pct of Stocks above 65-dma

                   For most stock groups, there has been a steady improvement in the percentage
                   of stocks above their 65-dma.  This is constructive.  The improvement actually
                   began two or three days before the DJI turned up.  We will want to watch
                   these statistics for signs of a reversal down. 
                 
                                  Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma
                                  versus DJIA

                           10/13      10/14     10/15       10/16    10/17    10/20
        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       A-Z stks     17.3%   17.5%   18.6%   20.3%   20.7%  24.6%     n= ~ 4940  stocks
       DJI              16321      16315    16142    16117     16380   16400
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart         IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV   FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs

                            Please report any bad links
                         
                65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500  for Russell-1000 
                          Net Idosc on DJI - Improving and positive despite DJI decline is bullish. 
               65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors              

                       -->60 +32     MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/20/2014)   Bullish Plurality
                -->25 -4     MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/20/2014)   
                                                                  
                 --> 12 +2     New Highs on NASDAQ   16 -3  new lows.   Bearish plurality       
                     --> 19      New Highs on NYSE   6 -8     Bullish Plurality        
                     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


===================================================================================
                                                        OLDER HOTLINES
===================================================================================
                   10/17/2014    It Looks Like Another October Sell-Off Has Ended.

                   Peerless and the DJI now operate with a Bull Market Buy B1 
                   Buy B1s have always produced profitable trades, but they can show
                   paper losses.   There have been 11 bull market B1s.  In 8 of the 11 cases
                   the market rallied directly to the upper band without any paper loss.  Only 3
                   of the 11 brought a paper loss of more than 2.3%. The average gain for a B1
                   was +10.3%. 

                   Right now, it looks to me like October has brought on and then ended
                   another market sell-off.  But a resumption of the bull market may not
                   occur.   It may be that this reversal will bring the typical Amercian Election rally,
                   one which here will end up sucking in Republican partisans when their Party
                   captures control of the US Senate.  This could be ultimately bearish:
                   recall 1973, 1980, and 2002.  In this case, January will bring another top and
                   a sell-off!

                   It certainly seems as though Friday was the high caps' reversal day, just
                   as Thursday was the reversal day for small caps.  Why did they not take place
                   on the same day?  It is a little worrisome that the high caps could not reverse
                   on their own, but needed to get the word from the Fed that it might back-off from
                   plans to stop subsidizing Wall Street and wean it off from Quantitative Easing. 
                   A cynic might add that, perhaps, was there not enough hot computerized money
                   available to run prices up for both big and small caps on the same day.

                                                          Some More Bumps Ahead
                  
                   Certainly, we should still fear another big reversal down day.  Only time will
                   tell if one eventuates this coming week. The Net IDOSC for the 30 DJI stocks
                   did jump to +30, its highest possible score.  This shows a very short-term over-bought
                   condition. If seasonality back to 1965 is to be trusted, this coming week will see
                   a retracement but the three weeks afterwards will be strongly up.  The DJI has rallied
                   only 38.3% in the week following October 19th, but rallies 68.1% of the time over the
                   month.
                  
                   I think the key here, as to the market's intentions for November, will be whether
                   both large and small caps move higher together and convincingly.
                   The DJI will need to get past its resistance just overhead, at 16350,
                   occasioned by its breaking of well-tested support. IWM's Closing Power
                   will need to get back above its falling 21-day ma.  SPY sure looks like it needs
                   some more base-building.   QQQ is nicely back above its rising 200-day ma.
                   A strong up-day tomorrow for IBB would make it look like the leader of the
                   ETF pack, in that it would be rising back above its 65-dma and its recent
                   broken support. 

DIA

IWM

SPY

                      >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart         IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV   FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs

                            Please report any bad links
                         
                65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500  for Russell-1000 
                          Net Idosc on DJI - Improving and positive despite DJI decline is bullish. 
               65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  
                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                       -->28 - 16     MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/17/2014)   Bullish Plurality
                -->29     MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/17/2014)   
                                                                  
                 --> 10 -4      New Highs on NASDAQ   19  new lows.   Bearish plurality       
                     --> 19 +14    New Highs on NYSE 14     Bearish plurality        
                     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                   Most of our Bearish MINCP stocks should have been covered
                                   on the early extreme weakness or when their Closing Power downtrends
                                   were broken

                                   The DJI has still not achieved a 10% correction.  But 8 1/2% corrections
                                   are common. Below we consider how well Buy B1s have worked in the past
                                   at halting corrections in a bull market.  Here is the study of these cases
                                   and their graphs. 
                                     http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/B1s-in-bullmkts/index.html  


=====================================================================================
                                                           OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

           10/16/2014      Peerless now operates with a Buy B1.

                                   Yesterday's Bull Market Buy B1 was reinforced today by positive breadth
                                   and rising  Closing Power Lines.  There were 595 more up than down despite
                                   the DJI's -200 point opening.  The Closing Power of IWM has broken its
                                   downtrend.  This makes it look like a good trading Buy.  The average
                                  Bull Market variety Buy B1 brings a 10.3% rally in the DJI.   The paper loss
                                   averages only 1.5%, though the typical Buy B1 does fall back almost 10%
                                   below its yearly highs.  On this basis, there could still be another 3% decline.
                                  
                                   Still, I'm impressed with how bullish Professionals have become with
                                   individual stocks.  Note the huge drop in Bearish MINCPs today,
                                   from 320 yesterday to only 44 today.   

                        >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart         IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV   FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs

                            Please report any bad links
                         
               65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500  for Russell-1000 
                          Net Idosc on DJI - Improving and positive despite DJI decline is bullish. 
               65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  
                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                       -->44    MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/16/2014)   Bullish Plurality
                -->31     MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/16/2014)   
                                                                  
                 --> 14      New Highs on NASDAQ   113  new lows.   Bearish plurality       
                     --> 5     New Highs on NYSE 204  +164  new lows.     Bearish plurality        
                     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                                 Yesterday's Suggestions

                                   Most of our Bearish MINCP stocks should have been covered
                                   on the early extreme weakness or when their Closing Power downtrends
                                   were broken, if one followed the recommendations here last night.

                                   Consider buying IWM and some of the stocks on tonight's Bullish MAXCP page.
                                   Last night's IWM chart showed how easily its Closing Power would
                                   be violated on any strength after the opening today.  That did occur.

                                   The DJI has still not achieved a 10% correction.  But 8 1/2% corrections
                                   are common. Let's consider how well Buy B1s have worked in the past
                                   at halting corrections in a bull market.  Here is the study of these cases
                                   and their graphs. 
                                     http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/B1s-in-bullmkts/index.html

                                                            A Good Advance On Friday
                                             Will Add to The Intermediate-Term Bullishness

                                   We still need to see the Down-Volume pressure come off the high caps.
                                   Uptrending channels are less reliable as bases than previous lows'
                                   selling climaxes.  AROC, our DJI momentum indicator showing the
                                   annualized rate of change of the 21-dma, is still declining.  Until we
                                   see bullish changes in these indicators, I would prefer to buy smaller
                                   cap stocks that show Insider and Professional Buying and good
                                   relative strength or else stocks  that are turning back up, having successfully
                                   tested previous climactic sell-offlows.  In this last connection, I mentioned
                                   the silver stocks and SSRI, in particular.  Do not be afraid to chase
                                   a speculative anti-EBOLA stock provided you sell it promtly if it breaks
                                   its Closing Power uptrendline.  Crude Oil looks deeply oversold and shows
                                   high recent Accumulation and Insider Buying.  I would buy it, too.


                     
                                                    Elite Stock Professional Page Will Change

                                   I am posting the Peerless revision that suppresses the Peerless
                                   B3 when the 20-day Pct-D Stochastic is below 7 on our Elite
                                   Stock Professional page.  It also has a new Tiger B14.  This
                                   occurs when the IP21 rises above +.5, the IP21 crosses above +.10
                                   and the ITRS crosses above +.10.  This is often a precursor to the
                                   very bullish B17 which very often leads to a Buy B12 advance.
                                   I will post the testing for this here as soon as this weekend.  The
                                   update is $95 or can be obtained from the Tiger Elite Stock Professional
                                   Page.   The location of the TESP  site must be changed tomorrow because
                                   of server probems with the host for www.tigersoft.com.   Subscribers
                                   to the TESP will get notice Friday or this weekend.  Because I cannot
                                   post the TESP Stock recommendations, use the recommendations
                                   here.   I will assume we are going long all the Bullish MAXCP
                                   stocks and follow-up on them. 

                                                              RUSSELL-2000 ETF - IWM



=====================================================================================
                                                           OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

           10/15/2014       The New Buy B1 Helps Us See This Probably Not A 1987 Crash.

                                   But a 5% additional decline from today's close would be
                                   consistent with it when it occurs with the DJI so weak as now.



                                   Peerless generated a new Buy B1 because of the new lows with
                                   and improving P-Indicator and IP21 (current Accumulation.)  This
                                   conveniently allows me to throw out the B3 yesterday because of
                                   the exceptionally low 20-day Pct-D.  (I mentioned this last light.)
                                   A revised Peerless will be posted on the Tiger ESPage that does not
                                   allow B3s when the Pct-D is below 7 on the day of the signal.)

                                   Buy B1s are reliable and profitable ways to see that October is
                                   finally making a bottom, with one caveat.  They tell us that
                                   the P-I and Accum. Index are improving with the DJI in over-sold
                                   condition.   They tell us that the panic has now reached the
                                   pent-house where the blue chips are traded.  Lower openings
                                   in these Blue Chips shows that the Public and Overseas buyers
                                   have reached a point of panic that extends to these normally
                                   much safer stocks.

                                  However, when they occur with the DJI outside the 4% lower band,
                                  as now, they average a relatively large 5.1% paper loss and the percent gain
                                  when reversed is "only" +7.8%.   This is a warning now even though Buy B1s
                                  in the 2nd Year of the 4-year Presidential Cycle average a whopping +23.1%
                                  gain, far above the average +12.9% for all 22 completed Buy B1 trades on
                                  the DJI. 

                                  To me, this suggests we should start closing out short positions when their
                                  Closing Power downtrend-lines are broken or on additional panic weakness.
                                  There is not much to buy yet if we limit ourselves to the Bullish MAXCPs.
                                  It's tempting now to buy a beaten down oil drilling stock like Baker Hughes
                                  or a beaten down silver mining stock like SSRI as they test their 12 month
                                  lows.   But  in these cases, I would put a stop sell just beneath today's lows.   

                                               We Need More Evidence of A Bottom


                                   I still doubt that we have seen the bottom of this decline.  The
                                   red down-day volume is still rising.  The DJI has not fallen even
                                   10% from its highs.  The Closing Powers for DIA, SPY, QQQ,
                                   MDY and IWM are all still in unbroken downtrends.  The sudden
                                   2-day reversals down are not so far away, in time or in price.
                                   There could be more.  How can we bullish when the  DJI drops more
                                   than 150 points on a day 10-year rates go back below 2% and fall more than
                                   .3 percentage points, the biggest one-day drop since 2009?  Ordinarily, this
                                   should make dividend stocks jump for joy.  It should be a big boost for
                                   the economy, if borrowing costs become lower.  Instead, it is
                                   being interpreted as a slackening demand for loans, deflation,
                                   a liquidity trap and a viscous money flow.

                                   Add to that the danger that hedge funds and others will start piling
                                   into leveraged short ETFs and my enduring fear that America could be
                                   about to discover the hard way the lessons of the 1937 Crash, namely that
                                   a fragile recovery can be quickly and utterly destroyed by premature
                                   tightening of monetary and fiscal policies.  Surely, if Republicans win
                                   this Fall,  they will seek a much smaller Federal budget.  In this 
                                   environment (when aggregate demand and private investments are
                                   shriveling up), that  will be dangerously deflationary, I predict. 




                                

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart         IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV   FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs

                            Please report any bad links
                         
               65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500  for Russell-1000 
                          Net Idosc on DJI - Improving despite DJI decline is bullish. 
               65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  
                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                       -->34 +14    MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/15/2014)
                -->320 -500  MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/15/2014)    Bearish plurality       
                                                                  
                 --> 14      New Highs on NASDAQ   113  new lows.   Bearish plurality       
                     --> 5     New Highs on NYSE 204  +164  new lows.     Bearish plurality        
                     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================================
                                                            OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

           10/14/2014      Today's Buy B3 reflects the steep fall in Interest Rates,
                                   but Professionals are more and more afraid that loose Monetary
                                   Policy can no longer save the market or the World
                                   Economies from a serious down-turn.  We see Professionals'
                                   bearishness in the steep declines of the Closing Powers
                                   of the major market ETFs and the dreadful declines of cyclical
                                   and heavily fix-capitalized industrial materials and semi-conductors'
                                   shares, as well as exporters, in general.

                                   Avoid speculative stocks if you choose to act on the new Peerless Buy.

                                   Without some political awareness of Keynesian economics in
                                   Europe and the USA,   I fear another 1937-1938 debacle
                                   is a real possibility.   It is weakening world demand that
                                   has caused the huge slide in oil prices and oil/gas stocks.

                                   Peerless gave a reversing Buy B3 with today's close.
                                   But Professionals remain heavy sellers and DIA broke its
                                   horizontal support and its 200-dma.  A 1%-3% additional
                                   decline would be fully in keeping with Buy B1s in a
                                   bull market.  

                                   Another warning.  The Stochastic NC is now at a very low
                                   level.  When I invented this signal, I envisaged NCs with the
                                   current Stochastic at a higher level than now.  It stands
                                   at only "6" right now.  The previous low for a B3 was 7.  There
                                   were 3 instances of it being between 7 and 8.9.  The low level
                                   of the Stochastic is probably significant in that in these
                                   3 cases, the B3 only gained 6.3%.  

                                   Stay overwhelmingly short.  We will cover Bearish MINCP stocks
                                   when their steep Closing Power downtrends are violated. 

                                   We need to see some signs of net Professional Buying now.  Otherwise,
                                   the danger remains of more Professional and Institutional
                                   dumping.   The horrible 2-day reversals down will not soon
                                   be forgotten by most traders, I suspect.  And they may still portend
                                   some ominous developments ahead.  Waiting another day or
                                   two, at a minimum, seems only prudent.


                       
                                                 Buy B13 since 1928

           Buy B3s automatically occur when the DJI closes between the 3.5% and 4%
           lower bands and the 20-day Stochastic Pct-D does not confirm the new low. 
           They are only allowed from May to November, excepting September.   

           There have been 25 B3s since 1929.  The average gain was +16.1%. 
           The average paper loss was only 1.1%,  The biggest paper loss in an on-going
           bull market was only 3.0% (19750804 - gain only +2,1%).  A loss of much
           more than this in any future case would be good grounds for discarding the
           application of the signal.  

           13 of the 25 Buy B3s occurred in just two months, October and November.  
           They averaged quite high gains, around 20.0%.  The five October B3s were
           particularly bullish.   They averaged only a 1.2% paper loss.

              Octobers:                                           Gains       Paper
                                                                                         Losses
               19571017  B3   436.9    .488   .032
      19751001  B3   784.16    .281  none
      19761008  B3   952.38   .034   .022
      19921007  B3  3152.25   .110  .005
      19991015  B3 10019.71   .120  none    
      ------------------------------------
                              .255   .012

      Our case showed a PI non-confirmation as well as the
                Stochastic NC.  Where this was true in the past, the
                outcome was also quite bullish.
                              
                             Gains        Paper
                                                                                         Losses
      19530609 B3     263.4    .778     .022                 PI - minor NC
               20050415 B3  10087.51   .148 none     PI NC

      Waiting for the Closing Power to turn up was quite unhelpful
               in the the period since 1994 on the 7 B3s using SPY.  This is because the
               Paper Losses were non-existent or very small in this recent period.

               But is the Current Market Unusually Weak?

                             There are three problems with buying right now. 

      1) The Stochastic Pct-D is still very low.

      2) Closing Power is falling usually fast.   Professionals
      have been aggressively dumping.  Prices could certainly
   fall a lot lower if it does not relent. 

   3) The DJI was unable to get back above its flattening
      200-day ma today, when it lost a 100+ early gain. I
      remain very much afraid that Professionals are not
      yet done dumping.  I think we, at least, need to see
      a Blue Candle-Stick daily bar or two to tell us
      Professionals have switched from being net sellers
      to net buyers. I would still be very wary of doing
      new buying in more speculative stocks.

      Interest rates did fall sharply today.  That will boost dividend
      stocks, Reits, bonds and utilities.  Perhaps, home-building,
      too.  But the way oil stocks are falling is suggestive of a
      gathering recession.  Speculative confidence is so low that Biotechs
      have broken seriously below their intermediate-term support.


                         6 of the last 7 days saw a red candle-stick on SPY.
                                This itself is a good short-term sell.

                 
                     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY  
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart         IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV   FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs

                            Please report any bad links
                         
               65-day ma Percent Data for SP-500  for Russell-1000 
                          Net Idosc on DJI - Oversold -30   
                          not updated today 65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                       -->20    MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/14/2014)
                --> 800+  MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/14/2014)    Bearish plurality       
                                                                  
                 --> 10      New Highs on NASDAQ   118  new lows.   Bearish plurality       
                     --> 18     New Highs on NYSE 213  +164  new lows.     Bearish plurality        
                     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           
====================================================================================
                                                 OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

          10/13/2014           The Sell S17s and The Bearishness of the Half-Sized
                                  Right Shoulder in H/S Remain Unreversed.  The
                                  key Closing Powers are all falling.  With the DJI down
                                  not even 6%, there could easily be weakness until
                                  November.   A 10% "correction" here seems reasonable
                                  to me, as the market sets up for a rally that lets Republican
                                  partisans celebrate the November Election results.  See
                                  how the Red-Down Day volume in the DJI chart below
                                  keeps rising.  This shows a mini-institutional panic is taking place.
                                  That was suggested also by all the Tiger "S14s" I've been
                                  showing on the MINCP charts. 
                                


                              

                               
                                  Hold all the many short sales as long as their Closing Powers
                                  keep falling.  Hold very few long positions.  Note the take-offs
                                  among stocks making protective garb for health care workers
                                  that may have to cope with Ebola.  See tonight's MAXCPs.       

                         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY   SPY-CandleStick
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart         IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV   Hourly-MVM0735     FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs
                                              Please report any bad links

               not fully updated yet          65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  
                          not updated yet            Net Idosc on DJI, QQQ, SP-500 and Russell-1000 (very short-term)
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                       -->20    MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/13/2014)
                --> 800+  MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/13/2014)    Bearish plurality       
                                                                  
                 --> 7      New Highs on NASDAQ   253 +106   new lows.   Bearish plurality       
                     --> 2     New Highs on NYSE 349  +164  new lows.     Bearish plurality        
                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                          
                                               Turnaround Tuesday?  Watchful Waiting...

                                  Breadth was not so negative as Friday.  Dividend paying
                                  Bonds, Utilities, Home-Builders and Reits did better because
                                  one of the Fed's hawks retreated from his position two days
                                  ago that rates should go up by March 2015 despite the rising Dollar
                                  and economic weakness overseas.  The percentage of all stocks
                                  above their 65-dma rose from 17.3% to 21.7% despite the DJI
                                  decline. As the NET-IDOSC for the 30 DJI stocks also rose,
                                  there should be a rally tomorrow.  A lot will depend on Intel's
                                  earnings, to be released after the close on Tuesday.
                                 
                                  But even so, it is not clear that loose monetary policies can hold up
                                  the weakening World economies.  This is the reason the
                                  conservative IMF has decided to seek big Public Works' programs
                                  and deficit spending in Europe.  The steep declines in so many cyclical
                                  stocks must be interpreted in this light, namely that World Wide
                                  demand is falling rapidly.

                                  Today, more serious technical was damage done.  The DJI,
                                  SP-500, NYSE and NASDAQ each closed below both
                                  their 200-day ma and their year-long price uptrend-lines.
                                  The QQQ is still 1 point above its 65-dma, but the biotech
                                  IBB and BBH closed decisively below their recent support
                                  and the 65-dma.  The 3x leveraged Small Cap ETF made a
                                  12 month closing low today and even the 3x leveraged Financials' ETF,
                                  FAS, broke its rising 200-day ma today.  At best, the market will
                                  do some base-building.
                                            
                             Hubris, Ego, Wealth, NYC Skyscrapers and The Stock Market.



                                  The new 1396' high Park Avenue Residential Skyscraper
                                  is completed and now renting.  In the past, the completion
                                  of sky-scrapers has correctly warned of market tops.
                                   The 1454' Empire State Building was completed in early 1931. 
                                  DJI would fall 67% lower in the next 15 months.   The
                                  World Trade Center was opened in April 1973.  The DJI was
                                  about to fell  from 975  to 578 in 18 months.  We might want
                                  to think about the "skyscraper index of stock market crashes".

                                  http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2014/05/condo-towers-architecture-new-york-city

DJI-Net IDOSC        NID is improving but too negative to be show much of a bounce.

SP-500

NYSE

NASDAQ

 

====================================================================================
                                                   OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

           10/10/2014    The Sell S17s and The Bearishness of the Half-Sized
                                 Right Shoulder in H/S Remain Unreversed.

                                 16500 is key, nested support.  All the key Closing Powers are
                                 falling.   Now a majority of DJI stocks are below their 65-dma.
                                 More weakness in the Big Bank stocks would add to the
                                 growing sense that the Fed has lost control and can no longer
                                 prop the market up.  Even if the DJI does stay above 16500
                                 for a few days, it will take longer than that to repair the damage
                                 done to investors' confidence by the quick and complete reversals
                                 downward this past week.  In addition, new research shows that
                                 Octobers are much less likely to see bottoms at their lower band
                                 after sell-offs than Novembers.  So we remain heavily hedged on
                                 the short side on our Tiger Stocks' Hotline.                                  



                  New Research:    Bottoms after DJI Declines of more than 4%
                                               That Then Produce Rallies to Upper Band, at least.
                        www.tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Oct-NovBottoms/index.html  
                       
                   This new research shows that sell-offs are more likely to end in Octobers
                   than Novembers, most likely to occur in the third 10 days of either October
                   or November and B2 Buys at the lower bottom do not occur in Octobers.|

                   Simply tagging the lower band in October in the 2nd-Yr of a Presidential cycle has
                   never brought a Buy B2.  See the 48-month table of Buy B2s since 1928.

                   So a new low that shows improvements from the P-I and Accum. Index (B17s)
                   or Stochastic 20 (B3s) is probably necessary for an October bottom.
                   As these indicators are making new lows, the test of the nested 200-day
                   ma, lower band and well-tested price uptrendline of the DJI is not over.

                   The number of sectors whose Pct of Stocks below the 65-dma made new yearly
                   lows grew on Friday.  For the first time since August, a majority of the DJI-30 stocks,
                   are now below their 65-dma. See chart below and full  statistics.  Only
                   17.3% of all stocks are still above the key support of the 65-dma.  The lowest
                   and highest percentages industry groups are listed below.  Only Bond Funds have
                   a majority above the 65-dma.  There is no leadership now to the upside among
                   equities.   This shows that investor confidence is badly crumbling.  The re-building
                   of it has not started.
                                       
                                       Pct of Stocks above 65-dma

                               LOWEST                                        HIGHEST
                                  Pipelines                         8.3%         Bonds         61.3%
                                  Oil/Gas                           7.7%         Beverage   50.0% 
                                  Transportation Stocks   6.9%          Utilities       45.2%
                                  Semi-Conductors            6.4%        Retails         31.3% 
                                  Autos                              4.3%         BigFidel      29.6% (27 biggest holding by Fidelity Select Funds) 
                                  Industrial Materials       4.2%         Big Banks   28.6%
                                  Gold/Silver                     4.0%         Dow-30      26.7%
                                  Solar                               3.4%
                                  Computers                     2.9%
                                  Foreign ETFs                 1.6%
                                  Coal                                0.0%
                 



                            

                          -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                           >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.

                          Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY   SPY-CandleStick
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart         IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV   Hourly-MVM0735     FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs
                                              Please report any bad links

               not fully updated yet          65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  
                          not updated yet                        Net Idosc on DJI, QQQ, SP-500 and Russell-1000 (very short-term)
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                       -->11 -19    MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/10/2014)
                --> 769 -330   MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/10/2014)    Bearish plurality       
                                                                  
                 --> 7      New Highs on NASDAQ   253 +106   new lows.   Bearish plurality       
                     --> 2     New Highs on NYSE 349  +164  new lows.     Bearish plurality        
                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                           

                                                Is The Fed Losing Control?

                   Even the Big Bank stocks look very vulnerable if they show any more weakness.
                   See how JPM has formed a classic head/shoulders pattern and is now sitting on
                   its nested 65-dma and H/S neckline.  JPM is at a critical juncture.  The same
                   can be said of FAS, the 3x leveraged ETF for finance stocks.  If they do break down,
                   it would be a sign that the FED no longer has the power to prop them up and
                   may be losing control.  Without quantiative easing, it is not clear what will
                   hold up the bank stocks.  The likelihood is that out of desperation, they will start
                   employing lots of leveraged short hedges.  That could make the market drop very fast.





==============================================================================================================
                                                              OLDER HOTLINES
==============================================================================================================

                             10/9/2014  The Half-Sized Right Shoulder in H/S Pattern and
                             Peerless Sell S17 Predict a DJI test of 16500.  But that
                             support may not hold up.   Rupturing that support would
                             start people making dangerous comparisons between how the
                             Bull Market from July 1932 to August 1937 ended with a
                             47% Bear Market because fiscal and monetary policies were
                             tightened up too quickly given a fragile recovery.  That bull market
                             lasted 61 months.  Our bull market has now lasted 66 months.                           

                             Why would the "Big Boys" dump stocks all day long, right
                             after such a big rise the day before?  What is scaring them?
                             Fear of Deflation and Recession is half the answer.
                             The other half is the lack of political leadership with
                             any good plans or solutions.        

                         -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            >  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.
                                                            
                           Peerless DJI Chart    DIA    SP-500 Chart    SPY   SPY-CandleStick
                          NASDAQ Chart     QQQ Chart         IBB Chart       IWM Chart       MDY Chart
                    Hourly DJI-OBV   Hourly-MVM0735     FAS-3x Financials   IBB-Biotechs
                                              Please report any bad links

                           65-day ma Percent Data for Different Sectors  
                           Net Idosc on DJI, QQQ, SP-500 and Russell-1000 (very short-term)
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                       -->30 -28    MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks (11/9/2014)
                --> 449 +228   MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks   (11/9/2014)    Bearish plurality       
                                                                  
                 --> 7 -14    New Highs on NASDAQ   147 +154   new lows.   Bearish plurality       
                     --> 2 -25   New Highs on NYSE 185  new lows.     Bearish plurality        
                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                           

                             The DJI fibillated wildly down today in response to the hawkish
                             opinions about how soon rates would go up from two Federal
                             Reserve Governors. Ballard from St.Louis predicted they would
                             start going up BY next March.  

                             Such bearish views flew in the face of the dovish minutes that
                             the stock market liked so much yesterday.   The minutes said
                             that a decision about when rates would go up would depend
                             entirely upon future economic statistics.  They also suggested
                             that the Fed understood the dangers that certain industries
                             would face if the Dollar kept rising.  Since raising rates would
                             further strengthen the Dollar, this implied a new dovish factor
                             would now play a role in their decision-making on future rate
                             hikes.

                                                The Half-Sized Right Shoulder
                                          and the Sell S17 are still unreversed.
                                          Watch to see if the nested support at 16500
                                          can hold up.



                             Two day reversals like we have just had, featuring one day wildly up
                             and the next day wildly down, tend to be bearish, but only at about
                             a 60% rate of reliability.  When the DJI is down only from 3% to 0%
                             over the last 65 trading days, the odds of even a 3% decline before
                             a significant rally drop to only 40%. See Table 1 below.

                             Our Net IDOSC and Hourly DJI's DISI (OBV Line) correctly
                             warned yesterday's rally was false.  We should continue to accord
                             these indicators a special respect.  The NET IDOSC can be applied
                             to the SP-500 stocks with the DJI chart, as shown below.  Tonight
                             it shows the Net IDOSC has fallen almost to oversold levels.  
                             The decline now is very broad.  We will be watching the A/D Line
                             for the SP-500 stocks closely.  As long as it is falling like it is now,
                             prices will remain very weak.

                                         DJIA and NID based on SP-500 stocks



                             So, as long as the Closing Powers for the DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM
                             remain in downtrends and there is no new Peerless Buy signal,
                             stay mostly short in a mix of Bullish MAXCPs and Bearish MINCPs.
                             IBB would be my choice of an ETF to Buy if the DJI's test of the
                             DJI of 16500 produces another good recovery,  But a DJI closing
                             below that level would make it too risky to hold.

DIA

SPY

QQQ

IWM

                                   Can The Us Escape A World Sliding into Recession?.

                             My guess is the answer yes, provided corporate profits do not go
                             into a decline.  The strong Dollar makes the US stock market look like a haven
                             to rich people around the world.   As long as stock prices do not
                             break down badly, it will remain a haven, too, for big corporations
                             which try to boost profits by buy-backs which reduce the number of shares
                             outstanding.   The danger will come when short sellers target the US stock
                             market using all the exotic leveraged two-edged ETFs that came in so
                             handy for playing the bull market.

                             The International Monetary Fund, which usually does not make such
                             bearish pronouncements, says that there is a 38% chance of
                             a world-wide recession in the next year.  Meanwhile, Europeon
                             Central Bankers are guided by the same Austrian economics theory
                             that Herbert Hoover adhered to.  Strangely, the NY Times Editorial
                             Board tonight advocates a massive Public Works program for Europe,
                             but not for America.  Without one here, we must hope that
                             small businesses keep hiring at the rate they were last month,
                             since big corporations have started to announce massive layoffs.