Bearish Daily Breadth
Divergences
Daily Declines/Daily Advances >1.60
DJI up for day
LA/MA>.99
9/15/2014 (C) 2014 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
| 1929-1957 A sell signal based on these characteristics between 1929 and 1957 would have produced 22 successes (declines to at least the lower band and 18 losses (significant addtional gains). Between 1958 and 2014 such a signal would have yielded a 55.8% success rate. There were 29 successes and 23 failures. Septembers only succeeded in 1 of 5 cases. Such a signal is most reliable from April to July. In this period, it succeeded in 16 of 21 cases, or 76.2% of the time. See Table 2. 52 CLOSED OUT CASES SINCE 1957
January 1 good 2 bad
February 2 good 2 bad
March 2 good 2 bad
April 4 good 2 bad
May 1 good 0 bad
June 4 good 2 bad
July 7 good 1 bad
August 0 good 1 bad
September 1 good 3 bad
October 3 good 2 bad ok
November 1 good 5 bad ok
December 3 good 1 bad
----------------
29 23
If we search closely for cases where the key
values were similar to the present in term of
the DJI being only slightly above the 65-dma
we get the following cases. There were 3
successes (additonal sell-offs) and 3 failures
(rallies) See Table 1.
Table 1 Cases where DJI was 0% to 2.5%
above its level 65 trading days
earlier. (Shown in Blue).
the 65-dma from 0% to 2.5%.
Table 1 Cases Where DJI is 0% to 2% above Its Level
65-trading days ago: 1957-2014
LA/MA ANN P-I P-I Adj. IP21 V-I OPct 65-day Outcome
ROC ch. P-I Pct Change
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
9/15/2014 1.00 .222 6 -102 6 .080 -26 .108 .017 open
11/10/1993 1.006 .188 -154 -20 -263 .067 -17 .046 .022 bad
6/7/1996 1.005 .469 75 -58 97 .079 9 .364 .011 good
4/6/2004 1.028 .048 6 -18 6 -.011 -137 -.065 .015 good
3/7/2006 .999 .203 64 -41 59 .057 -115 .067 .016 bad
12/13/2007 1.020 .190 -78 -152 -70 -.014 -152 .233 .017 good 9/21/2010 1.039 .631 362 -18 352 .101 42 .475 .029 bad
Table 2 All Cases: 1957-2014
LA/MA ANN P-I P-I Adj. IP21 V-I OPct 65-day Outcome
ROC ch. P-I Pct Change
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
9/15/2014 1.00 .222 6 -102 6 .080 -26 .108 .017
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/28/1961 .992 .04 -35 -22 -71 .000 -406 .275 .064 bad
7/10/1961 1.034 .327 -451 -103 -1252 -.103 -1390 -.135 -.164 bad 4/17/1970 .99 .121 -178 -27 -377 -.01 -2 .803 -.015 good 11/16/1970 .996-.05 -118 8 -249 -.249 -2 .242 .069 good 6/2/1971 .995 0.165 -195 -1 -414 .015 -2 -.158 .042 good --- 7/19/1971 1.009 -.132 -38 -14 -80 -.041 -2 -.034 -.045 good 7/26/1971 .998 .155 3 -14 7 .048 -1 .085 -.056 good (improvement) 7/27/1973 1.040 .69 177 -24 343 .169 1 .558 .006 good 10/16/1973 1.017 .935 223 -36 430 .239 2 .499 .077 good 6/19/1974 .999 .197 -71 -8 -126 -.018 -2 .147 -.056 good --- 10/13/1978 1.026 .137 -103 22 -213 -.051 -4 .021 .087 good 12/2/1980 1.006 .698 -1 13 -1 .04 4 .354 .047 good 7/29/1982 .991 0 -80 -16 -155 .019 -5 -.088 -.053 good 2/25/1985 .995 .066 63 -39 125 -.007 2 -.227 .068 bad 6/10/1985 1.014 .533 165 -45 327 .119 10 .482 .036 bad --- 9/24/1985 1.001 .025 -152 -26 -300 .013 -13 -.067 -.003 Bad. 11/25/1986 1.029 .845 228 -12 452 .183 14 .340 .105 Bad 1/16/1987 1.057 .854 178 -35 351 .164 15 .365 .153 Bad 4/1/1987 1.007 .464 -31 -25 -60 .181 5 .281 .211 good 10/7/1987 .99 .028 -29 38 -57 -.026 -1 .177 .041 excellent. --- 12/13/1989 1.021 .434 -34 28 -58 .122 2 .357 .034 bad 6/4/1993 1.014 .327 2 -38 4 .134 3 .227 .041 bad 11/10/1993 1.006 .188 -154 -20 -263 .067 -17 .046 .022 bad 10/3/1994 .992-.167 -211 -2 -333 .026 -33 -.092 .061 bad 3/5/1995 1.007 .381 98 -51 135 .101 0 .343 .069 bad --- 6/7/1996 1.005 .469 75 -58 97 .079 9 .364 .011 good 9/23/1996 1.025 .334 30 -59 38 .133 8 .169 .041 bad 3/17/1997 .998 -.114 -67 -81 -82 .028 -30 .02 .086 good 7/27/1998 .991 .121 -129 -46 -197 -.018 -52 .014 -.013 good 11/22/1999 1.037 .691 -26 103 -26 -.007 23 .095 -.001 bad --- 8/4/2003 1.002 .151 -217 -13 -210 -.016 -145 -.069 .086 bad 1/19/2004 .998 .068 237 -124 222 .05 -6 -.031 .096 good 4/6/2004 1.028 .048 6 -18 6 -.011 -137 -.065 .015 good 4/23/2004 1.006 .487 -3 -4 -3 .129 17 .270 -.015 good 11/8/2005 1.037 .400 299 -36 279 .066 3 .136 .058 bad --- 12/16/2005 1.015 .246 259 -11 242 .091 -3 .324 .046 good 2/18/2005 1.015 .352 287 13 388 .043 -3 .066 .028 good 11/14/2005 1.024 .468 105 -96 142 .072 22 .231 .009 bad 3/7/2006 .999 .203 64 -41 59 .057 -115 .067 .016 bad 12/13/2007 1.020 .190 -78 -152 -70 -.014 -152 .233 .017 good --- 9/26/2008 .994 -.381 -361 -132 -325 .014 -160 .130 -.057 good 6/8/2009 1.032 .498 260 6 242 .074 -98 .155 .329 good 10/27/2009 1.003 .112 -47 -131 -44 .000 -180 -.107 .084 bad 7/12/2010 1.007 .051 63 -151 61 .022 -125 -.035 -.066 good 9/21/2010 1.039 .631 362 -18 352 .101 42 .475 .029 bad --- 1/4/2011 1.016 .320 203 -75 202 -.017 92 .148 .079 bad 2/9/2011 1.025 .602 257 -40 257 .167 -14 .489 .069 good 4/11/2011 1.017 .33 173 -102 173 .016 -50 .122 .058 bad 5/3/2011 1.027 .412 113 -99 113 .152 -47 .352 .083 good 2/14/2012 1.011 .427 503 4 503 .175 43 .144 .093 bad --- 3/14/2012 1.019 .295 129 -148 129 .069 -24 .245 .099 good 7/2/2014 1.007 .179 398 -2 398 .156 24 .496 .031 good code: For i = 22 To rn
If la(i) / ma(i) < .99 Then 56
If dec(i) / adv(i) < 1.6 Then 56
If la(i) > la(i - 1) Then pi = i: stsells16arrows (pi)
56 Next i
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