2-Day
Steep Reversals Down
10/14/2014 (C) 2014 William Schmidt www.tigersoft.com
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These are the 18 cases since 1928 when the A/D ratio was below +.20
and on the previous day, the ratio was above 3.5. In 11 instances (61.1%)
the DJI fell by 3% or more. But when the DJI was not down by more than
3% over the previous 65 days, it declined in only 2 of 5 cases, 40%.
Cases where 65-d PctCh is similar to
10/9/2014 based on DJI's Pct Change for last 65-days.
1) 3/16/1938 DJI fell from
122.9 to 98.9
2) 7/6/1945 DJI rallied strongly
3) 2/25/1946 DJI rallied strongly after one more down day.
4) 6/29/1950 DJI fell from 206.7
to 197.50 - The DJI had a similar H/S
pattern.
5) 6/15/2011 DJI rallied strongly.
For i = 21 To rn
If adv(i - 1) / dec(i - 1) < 3.5 Then 200
If adv(i) / dec(i) > .2 Then 200
pi = i: stSellS19arrows (pi)
200 Next i
LA/MA 21dAROC P-I PIch AdjPI IP21 V-I OPCt 65-d PctCh.
10/9/2014
.979 -.286 -414 -124 -414 -.07 -163 -.094 -.02
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3/16/1938 felll from 122.9 to 98.9 on 3/31/1938 then up to 158 in Nov 1938.
.966 -.280 -55 -33 -286 -.012 -71 .056 -.005
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3/22/1939 fell from 139.5 to 123.8 on 4/11/1939 then up to 144 on 7/24
.949 -.259 2 -10 12 .003 -63 .012 -.082
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8/16/1939 fell from 138.5 to 131.3 on 8/24/1939, then up to 155
on 9/12
.976 -.444 -74 -42 -341 -.132 -106 -.116 .043
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5/28/1940 bottoming in aftermath of Hitler's attack on Western Europe.
.861 -3.022 -195 -32 -975 -.278 -.679 -.303 -.22
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6/1/1940 DJI immediately rallied form 111.8 to 138 on 11/7/1940
.931 -3.557 -180 -31 -899 -.281 -670 -.320 -.247
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7/26/1945 DJI bottomed and rallied from 160.9 to 195.8 on 12/11/1940
.977 -.577 -150 -35 -675 -.250 -349 -.447 -.021
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2/18/1946 fell - 201.6 to 186 on 2/26/1946 and then up to 212 on 5/28/1946
.996 -.112 -9 -24 -33 .123 -91 -.064 .052
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2/25/1946 187.2 to 186 and then up.
.930 -.684 -91 -64 -352 .008 -270 -.160 -.021
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9/10/1946 fell - 167.3 to 164.9 on 10/10 and then sidewise and up in 4 months.
.873 -2.235 -141 -29 -549 -.169 -245 -.631 -.204
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2/5/1948 fell - 170.9 to 165.7 and then up to 192.9 on 6/14
.976 -.604 -86 -45 -363 -.146 -151 -.148 -.058
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6/29/1950 fell 206.7 to 197.5 on 7/13/1950 and then up to 229.9 on 10/5/1950.
This was also half-sized right shoulder in H/S pattern
.933 -.894 -115 -49 -414 .078 -448 -.140 -.014
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3/11/1955 fell - 401 to 391.4 on 3/14/1955 and then up to 467.4 on 7/6/1955
.974 -.266 -17 -68 -49 -.103 -263 .139 .02
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1/29/2009 fell 8149.01 to 6547.05 on 3/9/2009
.965 -.471 195 -60 182 .05 -95 -.055 -.028
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3/5/2009 6594.44 - one more down day and then start of bull market.
.882 -2.340 -641 -158 -598 -.211 -464 -.446 -.254
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10/30/2009 7712.73 bottom. DJi rallied to 10680.77
.984 .246 -55 -11 -51 .045 -181 -.007 .060
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6/15/2011 11897.27 bottom as DJI rallied to 12724.41 on 7/21/2011
.970 -.630 -177 -50 -176 -.127 -185 -.149 -.008
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9/28/2011 fell - 11010.9 to 10655.3 and then up to 12208.55 on 10/27/2011.
.981 -.559 -233 -220 -233 -.002 -195 .149 -.086
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5/30/2012 fell - 12419.86 to 12101.46 and then up to 13610.15 on 10/5/2012
.975 -.740 -407 -76 -407 -.057 -228 -.556 -.044