How Will We know The "Jig Is UP"
as Groucho told his stock broker in October 1929. 

Peerless Sells in September and October

Septembers do have a bearish track record, but less so in a
bull market.  I would trust Peerless.

Every major and minor top in September and October has been
called since 1928 by a Peerless Sell.  While only a minority of these
Sells brought declines of more than 10%, they all brought gains
to the short seller using Peerless.  

   Number of Cases of
    Each Type of Peerless Sell

6  Sell S1s: 1948 -6.0%, 1975 - 2.8%, 1976 - 4.2%, 1978 - 12.0%, 1988 - 5.3%. 1994, 2.3%,
7  Sell S2s: 1935 - 3.3%, 1943 - 7.1%. 1967 - 8.4%. 1971 - 10.3%. 2000 - 9.5%, 2004-3.8%, 2007 - 6.2%
7  Sell S4s: 1940-2.5%. 1947. 2.5%, 1951-5.3%, 2000-9.5%, 2003-1.8%, 2007-6.2%, 2012-5.6%
4   Sell S7s: 1955-2.4%, 1967-7.5%, 1979, 9.5%, 1989-5.0%
4  Sell S8s: 1955-5.3%. 1979-9.6%, 1987-34.1%,   2012, 5.6%
9  Sell S9s: 1929 -45%, 1939-4.9%, 1971-10.3%,  1975, 5.2%, 1978-9.5%, 1979-9.6%,1987-34.1%, 1989, 5,7%, 1994 -6.6%,
6  Sell S12s: 1938-6.6%, 1941-14.1%, 1978-12.7%, 1987-34.2%, 1997-5.4%, 2013-1.7%

Sell S9s and S12s are the most frequent and most dangerous Peerless Sells at this time of the year.


Rising Markets Peerless Sells in Sept/Oct.

          Signal    Peerless Short Gain      
1929   S9           45.0%
1935  S2               3.3% 
1938  S12            6.6%  
1939 S9                4.9%  
1940 S4                2.5%  
1941 S12           14.1%
1943 S2                7.1%
1947 S4                2.5%
1948 S1                6.0%
1951 S4                5.3%
1955 S7              2.4%
1955 S8               5.3%|
1967 S7              7.5%
1967 S2              8.4%
1971 S2           10.3%  (S9 on 8/31/1971)
1975 S9             5.2%
1975 S1             2.8%
1976 S1             4.2%
1978 S12         12.7%
1978 S1           12.0%
1978 S9           11.2% (also S9)
1979 S7            9.5%
1979 S8            9.6%
1987 S9          34.1%
1987 S12        34.2%
1987 S8          34.1%
1988 S1            5.3%
1989 S7            5.0%
1989 S9            5.7%
1994 S1            2.3%
1994 S9            6.6%
1997 S12          5.4%
2000 S2            9.5%
2000 S4            9.5%
2003 S4           1.8%
2004 S2           3.8%
2007 S2           6.2%
2007 S4           7.9%
2012 S8           5.6%
2012 S4           5.6%
2013 S12         1.7%

As you can see, only 9 of these Sells brought
a DJI decline of more than 10%.  Earlier sets of
Peerless Sells set the stage for bigger declines,
as they widen the bearish divergences.
    A Major Market Top: What To Look for.

                  Watch the Big Banks

It's more and more obvious that the Big Banks run the political system
most of the time.  They certainly control the Fed. They have advance
knowledge of what the Fed will do.  This means the market as measured by
these big banks can keep rising a very long ways.  It means the Fed will protect
the big banks.  And it means that until the Big Banks show top patterns,
the market as measured by the DJI is probably safe.

Still, we have very dangerous leveraged trading vehicles that allow
shorting on down-sticks and no stock borrowing.  This is why the Fed has not raised
margin requirements, as it last did, I think in 1968 when stocks
got way too frisky.  This sets up the possibility that the DJI will
spike up to a new high and reverse downward with great speed
with no Peerless Sell.  To protect us from this eventuality in stocks
and ETFs, we watch for red high volume churning and reversal days
followed by a breaking of the Closing Powers' steep uptrend.  And if
we still are not failed, I would use a stop 13.5% below the last DJI's
closing high.  There are many more declines thereafter that take
the DJI down more than 20% than simply drop it another few percent
down with a reversal.  And in the latter cases, like 2011, we should get
good Buy signals.

               What Technicals To Look For.

Most important, major declines usually such as in 1929, 1930, 1941, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1968-9,
1972-3, 1980-1, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2000-1, 2007-2008, 2011 only occur after
a set of major Sell.  There are exceptions, like 1971 and 1998.

My study of major tops since 1928 shows that 3 weeks or more of A/D Line
non-confirmations can bring a major top if there is an S9. 

1) A/D Line NC tops are by far the most common.  The P-I is negative
at least 2.1% over the 21-day ma is the minimum up needed, with
a couple exceptions.  This is the S9.

2) In addition, we have to watch for Head/Shoulders tops in the DJI
where the market is surprised by events.  Nixon's NEP in
1971 was of this type or 9/11 attack.

3) There are Accum.Index negative non-confirmations at upper >2.1%
band, example early 1986.  These bring S12s.

4) There are V-I negative non-confirmations at upper >2.1% bands
in the Summer.  These are S9Vs.

There is a combination internal weakness at the upper band that
can bring an Sell S15, as in April,  1981. And the turning down below
its 21-day ma by the Accum. Index below its 21-day ma after a big
rally can being a Sell S4, August 1987.

All the signals have been fine-tuned, i.e. lots of detail spelled out
in code to prevent false Sells as much as possible.  And 48 month
Presidential cycle is very important in most.  It is often easiest to
dummy in numbers for the next day or two and see what signals result.

              1) Learn History's Lessons from our Peerless Stock Market Timing: 1915-2014
              2) The Tiger Trend Is Your Friend.
              3) The Explosive Super Stocks
              4) The Stocks Insiders and Professionals Are Selling Make Good Short Sales and Good Hedges.
              5) How To See When Professionals have switched sides, bearish to bullish and vice verse.