Track Record of Peerless BUY B2s
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12/15/2014 (C) 2014 William
Schmidt Ph.D. (Columbia University)
Peerless Buy B2 occur automatically
when the DJI closes between the 2%
and 5% lower band in certain months in the 48 month Presidential cycle.
They can occur in the following months:
Presidential Election Year or PEY (1928...1932...2012) 46 cases Avg. Gain = 8.3%
May (5), July (10), Aug (6), Oct (7), Nov (12),
Dec (6)
PEY + 1 (1929...1933...2013) 11 cases Avg.Gain = 13.2%
Feb (2), March(2), May(2), Aug(4), Sept(1)
PEY + 2 (1930...1934...2014) 26 cases Avg. Gain =
13.3%
May(4), June (2), July (1), Aug
(4), Sept (1), Nov(6), Dec(8 cases +15.8% avg gain)
December Buy B2s in this year.
19341220 .044
19381205 .047
19501204 .166
1966120 .124
19821215 .079
19941208 .506
19981210 .259
20021213 .04
PEY +3 (1931...1935...2011) 16 cases Avg. Gain = 10.6%
May (2), June (4), Aug (3), Nov (1), Dec (6)
In other months, they are either not allowed by Peerless or there is
not precedent and so should probably be distrusted.
Details: there were 100 cases. All the Buy B2s
were profitable. The average gain
was about 10% at the time of the next Peerless automatic Sell.
Avoiding Larger Paper Losses
There were seven instances when the Buy B2 suffered a loss
of between 2% and 4.5% before the signal achieved a gain.
achieving a gain. The presence of a head/shoulders pattern
or a hands-above-the-head pattern has tended to mean the
decline will be deeper than the first Buy B2. Considering
a completed head/shoulders a Sell S10 and then denying
Buy B2s for a week more would have avoided three
of the biggest lossses. When the DJI falls unusually sharply,
say more than 2%, it is usually best to wait another
day if the DJI is not already down 3.5% below the 21-dma.
Five Biggest Buy B2 Paper Losses
Gain Paper
Loss
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19390810 B2 137.3
.122 .045
Head/Shoulders and judged S10
on 8/4/1939 141.7
DJI fall to 131.2 on 8/24 before
reversing up.
This was from a point 5.8% below the 21-dma.
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19480720 B2 183.6
.034 .043
Head/Shoulders and judged S10
on 7/19/1948 181.2
Final bottom made on 9/27/1948 with
DJI at 176.00
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19480730 B2 181.3
.047 .03
Head/Shoulders and judged S10
on 7/19/1948 181.2
Final bottom made on 9/27/1948 with DJI at 176.00
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19481119 B2 177
.018 .033
Steep and sudden decline to
lower band.
Note gap after Truman meet Dewey in Pres. Election.
DJI Close
LA/MA
11/1/48
189.8
1.024
11/3/48
182.5 note gap
.984
11/4/48
184.5
.994
11/5/48
178.4
.962
11/8/48
178.2
.962
11/9/48
173.9
.940
.....
11/30/48
171.2
.962
Final bottom made on 11/30/1948 with DJI at 171.2
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19530828 B2 265.7
.124 .039
Hands above Head and judged
S10 on 8/19 1953 271.5
Final bottom made on 9/14/1953 with
DJI at 255.5
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19920821 B2 3254.1
.076 .037
Final bottom made on 10/9/1992 with DJI at 3168.58
------------------------------------------------------------------------
19960712 B2 5510.56 .035
.03
Hands above Head and judged
S10 on 7/8/1996 5550.82
Final bottom made on 7/24/1996 with
DJI at 5354.69
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Code used in computations
f1$ = "C:\allsig.txt"
Open f1$ For Input As #1
ktr = z
For i = 1 To 1197
Input #1, a$
If i = 1 Then a1$ = a$
sig$ = Mid$(a$, 15, 2)
DDATE$ = Mid$(a$, 1, 8)
yyear$ = Mid$(a$, 1, 4)
MMONTH$ = Mid$(a$, 5, 2)
gain$ = Mid$(a$, 43, 8)
If sig$ = "B2" Then kt = kt + 1 Else 100
yy = Val(yyear$)
pctgain = Val(gain$)
If Val(MMONTH$) < 1 Or Val(MMONTH$) > 12 Then Stop
If (yy) / 4 = Int((yy) / 4) Then yearktr = yearktr + 1:
If (yy) / 4 = Int((yy) / 4) Then yeargain = yeargain + pctgain
If (yy) / 4 = Int((yy) / 4) And Val(MMONTH$) = 5 Then ktr = ktr + 1
If (yy) / 4 = Int((yy) / 4) And Val(MMONTH$) = 5 Then totgain = totgain + pctgain
'If (yy + 2) / 4 = Int((yy + 2) / 4) And Val(MMONTH$) = 2 Then Stop
100 Next i
Close