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    Materials for May 2,  2015 Tiger Software Meeting
                        (C) 2015 William Schmidt, Ph.D.   www.tigersoft.com  

                     Free San Diego Tiger Users' Group Meeting 
 
                                     Saturday, 12:45 - 3:45 La Jolla Coco's

                                  Map
                                       4280 Nobel Dr San Diego, CA 92122 
Across SW corner of University Town Center.
In Costa Verde Shopping Center. 


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wpeDA32.jpg (17375 bytes)

   Hi, Tigers!  Let's get together and celebrate
   more than 6 years of bull market.  Who says Obama
   is a Marxist? A radical populist?  An enemy of the
   Wall Street and the rich?  Nonsense.  No more
   fairy tales.  Let's look at the facts.  "Just the facts, mam.".

              Where do you get yor Data?

   I want to demonstrate how you can get data from
   TC-2000 if you do not want to use our Tiger Data Page
   and Dial Data should discontinue its service.  They
   have not been responding to emails or telephone
   calls, which I take to be a bad sign.

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NASD.BMP (1012854 bytes)

   Peerless is still on a Buy.  Believe it or not, seasonality
   is still bullish.  Mays have a bad reputation: "Go away
   in May." "Beware of a June Swoon", etc.  But in
   the years of before a Presidential Election, the
   odds are 2:1 since 1915 that we will not see an important
   top until June, July or later...

   Scared by all the bearish talk on Fox and CNBC?
   That's perfectly normal.  Just remember that these networks
   are selling advertising and advertisers now find it much
   easier to scare people about how high up the market is
   that it is to reassure them about stocks. 

   More important, now that the first quarter bounces are
   over in beaten-down stocks, we should be able to make
   money in both rising and falling stocks.

   Many Oil service stocks have jumped 50% or more in the
   last 65 trading days: MDR (+127%), LPI (+59%), SM (+54%).
   Let's talk about the bullish technical qualities these all
   showed as they started their recent rise.

   Then let's contrast these technicals with the poorest
   performers in the Russell-1000 for the last quarter or so.
   SSYS (-50%), WTW (-43%), APOL (-36%), WYN (-31%).
   We can hedge by being long and short and make money
   in both directions.  If stocks like these go down this much
   in a rising general market, how much more will they go
   down if there is a sell-off this Summer?

WYNN.BMP (1005654 bytes)
SSYS.BMP (993654 bytes)
WTW.BMP (1000854 bytes)

                   Should We Be More Worried?

   No matter, trade the short-term (5-day mvg.avgs.) like we have suggested
   until the DJI, SP-500 and NASDAQ either pull back to support or break
   decisively out of their rising wedge pattern.

   How might we get a new  Peerless Sell signal? It's not so easy. 
   Our software allows for the special bullishness of the first half of the year
   before a Presidential Election.

   This year could be different, I suppose.

   What if socialist Bernie Sanders scares Hillary and
   she runs much more as a true populist?  Do you think
   there's much chance of this?

   Is the Fed really going to raise interest rates
   and jeopardize the economic recovery, such as it is?
   Or might they just test the water this month to see how easily
   Wall Street can be spooked?

   Reading studies by the Fed shows me that they are well
   aware that raising interest rates prematurely out of a fear
   of "over-speculation" in stocks could be a recipe for disaster
   in 1929, 1937, 1987 1937!

   We've talked about the importance of Accumulation/Distribution,
   NYSE breadth, volume, 5-day ma mometum and price chart patterns. 
   What about the new Tiger Candle-Sticks buys and sells?

QQQ.BMP (993654 bytes)

 

   Tiger's charts feature signals based on Candle Stick.  Its CS charts
   show red and blue "popcicles", "meat cleavers",  "all-embracings",
   "ants on a stick", "dynamite sticks", and "3 men marching".   These
   are our terms, not the standard Japanese terms.

   Classic candle-sticks have lots of strange names.  But I'm not sure
   that most have as much intermediate-term importance as the ones
   I have named and caused to produce signals.

QQQPOP.BMP (1440054 bytes)

   In any case, as the market becomes more and more ripe for
   the "big one", i have gone back over a lot of candle-stick charts
   to build some reliable rules we can use.  Many times they tell us
   what our Closing Power already says.  But every so often, they
   appear independently at critical junctures.  When the red candle-sticks
   are blatant and clear-cut as Qualcomm's final huge "red popcicle", SELL. 
   It may be as Groucho said in 1929: "The jig is up."

QCOM00.BMP (1176054 bytes)


   Click here to see how red Tiger candle-sticks called many an
   important top:  Bearish Candle-Sticks. 
   And called many bottoms: Bullish Candle Sticks.

   Certain patterns repeat over and over again, quite flagrantly.
   I will be working on providing a list of these each night on
   the Data page:  BULLCAN.exe   and BEARCAN.exe  

  ....................................................................................................

   All in all, there'll be plenty to talk about.  I hope you can come. 
   It should be real fun to bring all our experience and knowledge
   together to figure out what Wall Street has in store for us.

   Join us this Saturday.  We'll make it worth your while.


                        Review from Last Month:

   We have some exciting new short-tools for getting in and
   out of fast-moving stocks, commodities, currencies and ETFs.
   The new trading tools can really help in this weakening
   They show clearly where to sell and when to buy the
   strongest and weakest stocks, when a reversal takes
   place.

          Suggestion: Screen all stocks and find those best
          traded with 5-day ma penetrations and trade
          then using the "key pivot-points" showing when
          the 5-day ma has changed direction.

AE.BMP (1149654 bytes)

   A reversal has started.  How serious is the threat of
   rising interest rates?  What are the Bank stocks and bonds
   telling us.  Down Volume suddenly has picked up.
   The NASDAQ seems to have stalled at 5000-5250, the old high
   from 2000.  The number of new lows has not expanded
   much. 

  
But could this be the beginning of the end of the 6-year's bull
   market? 
What would it take to get a Peerless Sell and for
   Peerless to tell us a major top has been made?
   There have only been 3 longer DJI bull markets
   since 1928.  How did they end?

                                   OVER-EXTENDED?

wpe37.jpg (49472 bytes)

   But there's hope.  We could be getting another good buying
   opposrtunity.  March is usually a very bullish month.
   Just how bullish?  What about in rising markets? 
   What about in the third year of the Presidential 4-year cycle?
   What about when a Democrat is President and Republicans
   control Congress in 1947-1948?  Or 1996-2000? Forbes analysis?

  How about the NASDAQ's challenge of 5000?   Biotechs
  rose today (Wednesday) even as the DJI fell more than 100.
  Along with oil stocks, biotechs are often among the last
  groups to top out ar the end.  What at about the the highest
  UP% stocks, those that rise the more days than any others?  

  What stocks could carry the NASDAQ up more?
  Is AAPL capable of any more heavy lifting?
wpe38.jpg (71739 bytes)

What is the short-term trend of AAPL? When can we get
  back aboard this fast moving train?
AAPL6M.BMP (1156854 bytes)

   What about the rising Down Volume on the NYSE?
   Is that a sign of simple profit-taking?  A sign that
   dividend stocks are being sold as rates go higher?

DATAV.BMP (472854 bytes)

   Highest UPO% Stocks:  There are only a handful of stocks
   and ETFs that have risen more than 57% of the time on any
   given day for the last year.  Fewer of these have a CLOSEUP%,
   that reliably close higher than their opening.  How safe
   are these
HIUPPCT stocks to buy.  These stocks can now
   be screened for and are also now downloadable
   as a group from the Tiger Data page.  Run
HIUPPCT.exe.

   Do you trade short-term.  Michael M. suggested a report
   showing how stocks do after the opening to the close
   given various sized openings away from the previous
   close.  Now we have a new report that shows that.

                         
FAST-MOVING TRAINS

   Lots of folks want to know how to get aboard a fast-moving
   stock.  This can be dangerous.  One can pay too much
   and not know when to sell.  WE CAN HELP HERE.

   Getting aboard a fast-moving train is dangerous.
   But Tiger has new tools to help you.  Our Closing
   Power has a companion indicator now for this.
   And the new tools may get us out before Closing
   Power does.

   Our new six month chart shows a 5-day ma, bands around it,
   the velocity of the 5-day ma and the
"pivot point".  This
   is the point beyond which the 5-dma would reverse |
   direction.  A lot of stocks' best moves can be timed
   using the 5-day ma.  We'll study this closely at the meeting.

SOXL.BMP (1144854 bytes)

   Late in a Bull Market, how do we find the last ETFS
   standing, the ones that are still the leaders.  We
   have a new ranker, the Pct Up%, the Opening Up%
   and the Closing Up%.  We can easily find the highest
   stocks in each category and the lowest, too, for
   short selling.