What Behind It?  Are Catchers' Signs Being Stolen?  What's Up?


                                       

                                            by William Schmidt, Ph.D. (Columbia University)
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                What Behind It?  Signs Being Stolen?  What's Up?

                                                                 by William Schmidt, Ph.D
  

                               Now, I like statistics.  But it's baseball that got me to like numbers.  When I was
                     very little, my grandfather took me aside and explained what "numbers" were.   See, he
                     worked in a factory and "ran numbers" there.  He would go around and collect bets on
                     such things as the total number of runs in baseball for a given week, as well as take straight-up
                     bets for a bookie who payed him a little on the side.  He never got rich at it, for sure.   In fact,
                     he was always real poor.  His vacation was going down to the train station and counting the box cars
                     going by with me.  He was thinking how he would like to hop up on one of them, I think.   Well, I
                     loved him.  He taught me basic arithmetic long before I had it in school.  And getting this
                     head start in math has kept my interest in numbers all my life.  So I grew up liking them
                     and baseball especially.  And I still do.  I was a catcher.  So I study the pitching part of the
                     game.   San Diego's hitting leaves a lot to be desired.


                                                           

                             What I want to consider here is what's with the huge home-field advantage that now
                      exists in baseball.  It been documented, of course, for some time, but look at how different
                      the wins and losses are this year from home to away, for almost all teams, especially those
                      near the top of their division.  Below are the win-loss record to date in 2008 for the teams
                      leading each division.  Only the LA Angels, the team with second best record in baseball
                      this year, is doing nearly as well away as at home.  The differences are enormous.
                      Of all 30 major league teams, only 5 have won more away than they have lost.  Even the
                      best teams have trouble winning much mor ethan 50% of their away games. 
                                                                         
                                                                                             Win-Loss Record
                                                                                               At Home           Away
                             American League
                                            East
                                                       Tampa Bay                        47-19                 32-32
                                                       Boston                               43-18                 33-37
                                                       NY Yankees                      38-28                 32-33
                                             Central
                                                       Chicago W.Sox                 46-22                 30-34
                                                       Minnesota                          48-23                28-35
                                             West
                                                      LA Angels                          40-26                40-25

                            National League
                                            East
                                                       Philadelphia                        39-28                  34-31        
                                                       NY Mets                            41-25                 32-35
                                                       NY Yankees                     38-28                  32-33
                                             Central
                                                       Chicago Cubs                    49-19                 33-31
                                                       Milwaukee                         41-24                36-31
                                             West
                                                      Arizona                              37-28                  31-36
                                                      LA Dodger                        39-30                  26-37

                            
                                                                    

                                      I found  lengthy study on the Net that concluded the advantages covered
                             most aspects of baseball.

      Home teams succeed at:

1.                                       Hitting more homeruns
2.                                       Striking out less
3.                                       Walking more
4.                                       Getting hits on balls in play
5.                                       Pitching complete game shutouts
6.                                       Allowing fewer runners to reach on error
7.                                       Stealing bases more successfully
8.                                       Getting hit by more pitches
9.                                       Hitting triples
10.                                       NOT especially at hitting doubles, but at hitting extra base hits on balls in play overall
11.                                       Picking off opponents’ runners

                                 Statistics back to 1981 show that the biggest advantage is in the 1st and 9th inning.  Is that
                                 from the crowd cheering, in part?  This notion is supported because home teams have a
                                 noteworthy advantage in close games and low-scoring games.

                                 In baseball there is official rulebook that teaches boys how to play.  And then there is the
                                 unofficial way in which baseball can be won by intimidation, stealing signs and the fans
                                 getting to the umpires.  Watch the pitcher, some of them clearly release the ball 3" or
                                 4" in front of the rubber.  They are never, never called on it!

                                 The Wall Street Journal reported that the 1951 New York Giants scored their miracle
                                 comeback from 13 and a half games behind the Brooklyn Dodgers in September
                                 with an "elaborate sign-stealing scheme that involved telescopes in the scoreboard
                                 and a system of bells and buzzers."  (Source: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0FCI/is_8_61/ai_88575166 )
 
                                 I've always wondered with today's technology whether someone might steal the
                                 visiting catchers' signs and post them in some secret way on the billboard in center field,
                                 or in another spot the hometeam batters could see.  That would help them enormously.
                                 Knowing that the next pitch is going to be curve would takes all the surprise away and let
                                 batters dig in for a fast ball and flex up for a curve ball.  Since the catcher also signals
                                 the location he wants for the pitch, the home-team batter could have quite an advantage
                                 once the catcher's signs were understood.

                                                   

                                 The problem with this is that the pitcher and catcher could change the signs anytime
                                 they want.  That would cross-up hitters a lot.. It's probably easier to explain home-town
                                 advantage in other ways.   "Tthe stealing theory surfaces with teams like the Cubs more
                                 often because of the scoreboard. the belief is that someone in the scoreboard appears
                                 in 1 of 2+ openings depending on the pitch (1 for fastball, 2 for curve, add more
                                 as necessary). the batter is supposed to know which opening means what."  Source.
.  

                                              Explanation for Home Field Advantage  

                             I can list a lot of possible explanations.  And tell a few
                      stories.   But there are a lot of unanswered questions.

                1.     Familiarity and comfort for the batter working with a familiar backdrop in the outfield.  The
                          home-field batter see the ball better.    

                   2.    The height of the pitching rubber and how the pitchers' mound is maintained must
                          vary from stadium to stadium.  The hometown pitcher is more comfortable on the mound
                          he plays half his games on.   Home team hitters are hit by more balls, for example, for
                          this reason.

                   3.     The outfield varies a lot from stadium to stadium and so does the foul territory.  The
                          home-field team has a big advantage knowing where the outfield fence is and how far they
                          can go to catch a foul ball.  

                   4.     Infields are better maintained in some stadiums than others.  And in all stadiums,
                          the field is in better shape to field infield grounders on in the top of the 1st inning.

                   5.     The home-town players know how to play the lights in their stadium better.  Outfield
                          errors on fly-balls lost in the sun would give the home team an edge. 

                   6.     Crowd noise.  Baseball etiquette has changed a lot since I was a kid.  Home-town fans
                          razz opposing team outfields quite personally now.

                    7.     Traveling to play on the road is more tiring.  Muscles are tighter.  It's certainly harder
                            to play with a hangover.

                     8.    Climate differences are important.  Places like Coors Field, 5000' high, produce
                           longer fly balls.  The Home team would know how to take advantage of this and
                           prevailing conditions.  Colder locales require more time to warm up.  Perhaps, the
                           visitors don;t fully realize this.  Houston's humidity and Arizona's heat is very debilitating
                           unless one knows from experience how to prepare for and cope with it.  From 1977
                           to 2008, the biggest home-field advantage was Colorado, Houston, Tampa Bay and
                           Florida.  
                                        
                        Difference Between Home Winning Pct and Away Winning Pct.
.
                                                        0.159 COL  (meaning that Colorado winning percentage for home
                                                                            ganes was 15.98% higher than its winning percentage
                                                                            for away games).
                                                        0.114 HOU
                                                        0.113 TBD
                                                        0.11 FLA
                                                        0.105 TEX
   .        
                                                
                                     Look at how different the dimmensions are from one ball park to another.