The Credit Crunch Is Worsening.
Try Borrowing Some Money from A Bank!
(Source: http://caglepost.com/cartoon/John+Trever/49084/Credit+Crunch.html
)
There are 11 million American homes now on the market for sale. Even if
no other homes go on the market for the next year, it would take nearly that long to eat
up that supply. Housing prices are soft. Another 10% decline will cause
a whole new
wave of foreclosures and write-downs by banks of their loans. With home prices
down and no way to pay a balooned mortgages, it is cheaper for many to just walk
away from their home and let the bank suffer the losses. 8.5
million homeowners had
negative or no equity in their homes at the end of March, representing more than
16 percent of all homeowners with mortgages
"Nearly 1 percent, or roughly 447,723 loans, fell into foreclosure during the
January-to-March period, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday in its
quarterly snapshot of the mortgage market. This exceeded the previous high of 0.83
percent
over the last three months in 2007. Homeowners slipped behind on their monthly
payments..
The delinquency rate jumped to 6.35 percent -- or 2.87 million loans --
compared
with 5.82 percent for the previous three months. Payments are considered delinquent
if they are 30 or more days past due. These rates are the highest on record going back to
1979.
(Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080605/home_foreclosures.html
)
This wave will surely make some big banks insolvent unless they can
miraculously raise billions of investment capital. The Fed has signaled that it will not
be lowering rates anymore. But it may soon have to get its checkbook out. More
big
bank failures are likely otherwise. The credit derivatives have cluded the issue
terribly.
How close a bank is to insolvency cannot be easily determned because of these complex
derivative instruments. But the way financial stocks are declining surely tells us
that big
money wants out more than in.
Wealth Distribution Is Dangerously Highly
Concentrated
Wealth has become as highly concentrated in the US as it was right before
the Crash of 1929. Wealth inequality was a major factor in the coming of the
Depression.
See - http://www.gusmorino.com/pag3/greatdepression/
In 1983, the bottom 40% of the population owed less than 1% of the US. The wealthiest 1%
owned 34.3%.
(Source: http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/faculty/hodgson/Courses/so11/stratification/income&wealth.htm
)
This year the NY Times estimates the top 1% own 90% of the
wealth in America.
(See - http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=9503EFD8153EE033A25753C3A9679C946697D6CF
)
If the rich don't share more of what they have, a Depression
is likely. If working people
have no money and there is no credit, they can't buy things. It's about that simple.
The US Government
is so deeply in debt, its ability to stimulate the economy is much more limited. The
Democrats
have grown very fond of attacking Bush and the Republicans for imbalancing the budget.
This will put them in a straitjacket fiscally if they should inherit a steep recession in
2009.
Personal bankruptcies are up 40% from a year ago nationwide. Congressional Democrats are
seeking an expansion of the authority of bankruptcy judges to modify loan terms on a
mortgage
for a principal residence. Republicans say this would cause banks to stop making
mortgage loans.
(See - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/03/AR2008010303617.html )
|
Stripping Houses after Foreclosure
People blame the banks for the balloon loans, not
themselves. Their anger at having to give up their homes, turns to stripping the
house, sometimes beyond repair. They takes "everything including the kitchen sink."
They smash walls to rip out the wiring and copper pipes to sell them for scrap in back
alleys. They dig up the palm trees. Many bankers are paying occupants thoufands of
dollars to leave without stripping the houses. In some places, holes are punched int
he wall as retaliation and paint or motor oil is dumped on the floor. Dog poop is
also a favorite of the angry ex-homeowners. Look in the newspaper or Craig's List
for used double0wall ovens, dishwashers and wall-microwave ovens.
See - http://outsideyourmarket.com/2008/04/09/buyers-revenge-trash-the-house-after-foreclosure/
One guy even put pigs in the house when he was foreclosed upon.
The banks have to prove who did
the vandalism. This not not easy if the trial goes to jury. A lot of
people think of banks as the enemy.
"Actually, I couldnt be happier about this. Remember, the ones who
will ultimately - and yes, it will take a long time - be hurt most by this are the same
moth&rF#cke*s who should have never been let anywhere near this house. So when this
dummy strips his house, screws the bank, stiffs the developer and trashes the neignborhood
it will make the stark reality of the lesson to be learned all that dramatic. The worst
thing that could happen is for this guy to clean the place, slap on a freash coat of paint
drop off the keys so the bank can show it the next day. No, these bankers must really FEEL
the hassle, and the anger, and the loss that their loose lending stanmdards caused because
ultimately that is the only thing that will restore sanity to this market, and with it
more affordable housing."
(Source: http://housingdoom.com/2008/03/14/house-in-foreclosure-selling-everything/
) |
BERNANKE's LATEST WARNINGS
Fed Chairman Bernanke is clearly worried that the Credit Crisis is worsening,
On the one hand, he told Congress to do something, anything, to stave off the growing
wave of foreclosures. On the other hand, his own data shows that banks are
tightening
credit in an unprecedented way. Though, he has given central banks a cheap
supply of money,
through dramatic Fed interest rate cuts and a $30 billion subsidizing of JPM's take-over
of Bear Stearns, banks are tightening credit, thereby reinforcing the business, housing
and
automobile turns-downward. . Monday he provided Fed watchers more pertinent data
on the worsening credit crisis.
1) About 70% of domestic lenders have made it harder for consumers to get home equity
lines of credit, while about 50% have tightened terms for those with existing home equity
loans in the past six months. In some cases, the amount of the loan has been cut. The
tougher standards are a response to falling home prices.
2) About 30% of U.S. banks have ratcheted up standards for credit cards, compared with 10%
in the previous three months. Banks are reducing credit limits and requiring consumers to
have higher credit scores.
3) Banks expect to approve fewer student loans this year than they did in 2007. Of the 29
domestic banks that originated student loans under a federal program last fall, many
expect decreased business.
4) About 55% of banks reported imposing tougher standards on commercial and industrial
business loans to large and middle-market firms, up from about 30% in the previous survey.
5) Nearly 60% of domestic lenders have set tougher standards for safer prime mortgages,
while an even larger slice of banks making riskier loans has tightened up.
More details:
http://www.zimbio.com/mortgage+industry/articles/1151/MortgageNewsClips+Luxury+Foreclosures+Chicago
INSIDER TRADING in BANK STOCKS
TigerSoft specializes in watching stocks for signs of
bullish (blue) Accumulation
or bearish (red) Distribution. As a working definition of
"insider selling", we look for dips
by the Accumulation below -.25 and steady underperformance by the stock. Washington
Mutual is a good example of this. And, sure
enough, when you check for insider transactions,
WAMU's CEO Killinger (as rhymes with Dillinger) heads the list of insider sellers.
Needless
|
to say, the shareholders and the SEC treat all this as perfectly legal. Below
is a report of
Killinger's REPORTED insider selling. How many more people has he privately urged to
sell? When you look at a TigerSoft chart of WM (WAMU)
you see massive insider selling.
Look at the TigerSoft
blog of 12/30/2007 about insider selling at WM (then 11.7, now 8.61
and C (then 30, now 21.19). I used WM as an example of a highly vulnerable stock
for the Blog I wrote here on 5/14/08. Lawsuits are prolifferating against WAMU's
executives for concealing the company's problems that they created while quickly selling
their shares. See http://www.allbusiness.com/legal/legal-services-litigation/5328728-1.html
70% of WAMU's loans are in California and Florida. The Attorney General of the
State of
New York can accused WAMU of inflating the values of mortgage apraisals to allow them
to increase the value of their loans. Fir more information:
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jan2008/db20080116_577720.htm?chan=search
Shares Price Value
Sold
2008-01-18
Sale |
2008-01-23
7:45 pm |
WASHINGTON MUTUAL, INC |
WM |
KILLINGER KERRY K
(Chairman and CEO
Director) |
140,685 |
NA |
|
|
|
2007-05-01
Sale |
2007-05-03
7:07 pm |
WASHINGTON MUTUAL, INC |
WM |
KILLINGER KERRY K
(Chairman and CEO
Director) |
50,000 |
$42.05 |
$2,102,304 |
|
|
2007-02-01
Sale |
2007-02-05
8:22 pm |
WASHINGTON MUTUAL, INC |
WM |
KILLINGER KERRY K
(Chairman and CEO
Director) |
50,000 |
$44.67 |
$2,233,298 |
|
|
2006-11-01
Sale |
2006-11-03
7:00 pm |
WASHINGTON MUTUAL, INC |
WM |
KILLINGER KERRY K
(Chairman and CEO
Director) |
50,000 |
$42.36 |
$2,118,178 |
|
|
2006-08-01
Sale |
2006-08-03
7:35 pm |
WASHINGTON MUTUAL INC |
WM |
KILLINGER KERRY K
(Chairman and CEO
Director) |
51,688 |
$44.49 |
$2,299,449 |
|
|
2006-05-01
Sale |
2006-05-03
6:47 pm |
WASHINGTON MUTUAL INC |
WM |
KILLINGER KERRY K
(Chairman and CEO
Director) |
50,000 |
$44.94 |
$2,247,123 |
|
|
2006-02-01
Sale |
2006-02-03
7:25 pm |
WASHINGTON MUTUAL INC |
WM |
KILLINGER KERRY K
(Chairman and CEO
Director) |
50,000 |
$42.03 |
$2,101,675 |
|
|
2005-04-12
Sale |
2005-04-14
7:28 pm |
WASHINGTON MUTUAL INC |
WM |
KILLINGER KERRY K
(Chairman and CEO
Director) |
86,842 |
$39.3 |
$3,412,895 |
|
|
Try Getting A Loan from WAMU!
"As a recent previous employee of Wamu, working as a Banking Loan Consultant,
it was almost impossible to get underwriting approval on a re-finance or home purchase.
In the rare occasion that underwriting approval was granted, the processing center in
Downers Grove, Il, would usually find a way to drop the ball and lose the 30 day loan
lock,
effectively killing most deals. Their rates were not competitive and it was just a big
waste
of time trying to help consumers. Most un-professional and mis-managed company I've
ever worked for. Worst thing was having to listen to weekly wamu web-casts of Killinger,
Rotella, and Sstein making up bigger and bigger lies each week."
(Source: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_W/threadview?m=tm&bn=19978&tid=149042&mid=149045&tof=18&rt=2&frt=2&off=1
)
How Short of Cash is WAMU?
I have said I would move my money elsewhere. $100,000 of deposits
may be insured, but there coud be substantial delays in getting this money back.
Here is an unverified comment posted on WM's Yahoo Message Board on 6/5/2008.
"...Now I can't get my $35,000 withdrawal from my damn
savings
deposit account. No kidding...Seattle-Metro branch of (WAMU)... has me
waiting
for 8 business days for money to arrive to back my withdrawal. Called branch this
morning and received their "apology for the delay" went on to ask "please
call back
before visiting the branch to make sure your money has arrived"...GOOD COVER
(as in please don't make a scene at our local branch, please, please! Please speak in low,
confidential tone when visiting our branch) They failed AGAIN TODAY. U.S. Bancorp
and Wells Fargo is a "can do".... A no can do on customer service
accounts...Yes,
before you ask, I did register the complaint with the State Banking folks and e-mailed
the Senate Banking Committee."
The Bear Market in Finance Stocks
Goes from Bad to Worse.
Study
the TigerSoft Charts of The Weakest Financial
Stocks below.
In doing so, we suggest the following:
1) Find the weakest sector and don't be afraid to sell weak
stocks in that sector short. In a bear market, that is the
safest way to
proceed, unless you resolve absolutely to
go to the
sidelines until the bear market is over.
2) Use our
TigerSoft Power-Ranker Software to find the
weakest stocks in
the weakest sectors.
3) Look at the
TigerSoft OP21 Indicator, as well as the
Tiger
Accumulation Index, which we mention in most cases
on our site.
Note those cases where the OP21 drops below
-.5. Sell
the stock short on rallies that fizzle, as judged by
the OP21 dropping
back below its moving average.
4.) Use the
TigerSoft automatic Sell signals. In the charts
below, I show you
the "Sell S6" signals. They work very well
in downtrending
stocks where the OP21 frequently drops
below -.5.
5.) Many of the best short sales are in
lower priced stocks,
under $10.
Being low priced does not make a stock cheap
or a good buy.
6.) The news gets worse and worse for
these companies.
Solvency and
credibility is everything to a bank. Once
the dynamics set in
that make things spiral downward,
it is very hard to
stop. You can get a sense of this
from the news items
below for each stock.
These stocks' declines are similar to those we have
studied in our book on
Short Selling techniques.
http://www.tigersoft.com/--5--/index.html
1 month - Biggest Decliners
NEXC 0.63
-80%
Law Suits: (1) Brower
Piven Encourages Investors Who Have Losses in Excess of $100,000 From Investment in NexCen
Brands, Inc. to Inquire About the Lead Plaintiff Position in Securities Fraud Class Action
Lawsuit Before the July 28, 2008 Lead Plaintiff Dea. (2) Law Offices of Brian M. Felgoise, P.C.
Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against NexCen Brands, Inc. -- NEXC (3) Holzer Holzer & Fistel, LLC Has
Filed a Shareholder Class Action Against NexCen Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEXC)
Lay Offs and Selling Assets: UPDATE
- NexCen cuts 25 pct of New York workforce, mulls options [$$]
NexCen Cuts Jobs, Explores Asset Sales
ABK Ambak 3.00 -45%
Rising
Municipal Bond Defaults:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/79980-muni-defaults-triple?source=yahoo
ABK IS BEING DELTETED FORM THE S & P 500:
INDEX FUNDS MUST SELL ALL ABK SHARES
MBI MBIA
6.69
-42%
Downgrades:
Moody's
Investors Service said it is likely to cut its ratings
on MBIA's bond insurance arm. S&P Sell recommendation.
Shunned for
Fear of Bankruptcy:
Florida
Shuns MBIA and Ambac Insurance, Lowering Costs - Housing Tracker
Law Suits: http://www.lawcash.com/attorney/4271/mbia-lawsuit.asp
Personal Bankruptcies: New York
Times - June 4, 2008
LEH Lehman Brothers
30.61 -42%
Criminal
Fraud: Lehman Brothers was found to have assisted in fraudulent activities
by providing financial backing to an aggressive home equity lender.
Mortgage Defaults:
As one of the largest bond guarantors, MBIA insured many of the
exotic derivatives that are collapsing under the mortgage mess.
Incompetent CEOs:
One NBC guest said CEO Ackman "is a slick salesman who
doesn't know much about insurance."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/01/business/01nocera.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
FCFC First City Financial Corp 3.73 -34%
Losses: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=fcfc
CORS Corus Bankshares
5.34 -34%
Yahoo Scare/Despair:
"THIS IS TRULY
UNPRECEDENTED !! THIS IS A FINANCIAL
ARMAGEDDON, FOLKS !! AMERICA WILL SINK INTO SECOND
GREAT DEPRESSION !! I ESTIMATE CORS NEEDS $1B NEW CAPITAL
QUICKLY TO STAY SOLVENT !! MASSIVE DILUTION COMING SOON !!"
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=4208&tid=20326&mid=20326&tof=2&frt=2
CCBO
4.23 -33%
CNB Colonial Vankshares 5.34
-31%
Dilution: Red
Mountain plans $10M private stock sale
Downgrades:
WM WasHington Mutual
8.75
-29%
CEO Greed, Insider Sekking and Managerial Ineptitude:
http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/May-14-2008/index.html
Lack of Capital: Where
will it come from?
Losses: The company reported $3 billion of losses
uring the past two quarters.
IBCP Independent Bank
5.7
-29%
GSBC Great Southern Bancorp 11.08 -28%
Big Losses from
write-downs:
$37,750,000 in the quarter just reported, compared
to total revenues of $48,514.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=gsbc
Finding the weakest group and shorting it is
often very profitable, provided you use TigerSoft tools
to confirm the trend and time your trades. The same,
by the way, works in reverse. Look at TigerSoft's
studies of the Oil
and Coal explosive,
super stocks.
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