Peerless
Stock Market Timing: 1915-2011
gives automatic
Buys
and Sells on the general market using the
DJIA
and various technical tolls Tiger has developed.
The
signals have been built, tested and optimized
with
market data back to 1915. This study helps address
the
question, "What should we best buy and sell using Peerless?"
It has long been apparent that stocks in certain
sectors
make the best investments than stocks
in
others when Peerless gives a reversing Buy signal.
The
study of how well the different Fidelity Sector funds
do
when Peerless in on a operative Buy confirms this.
This
bigger study here of their performance to 2011
at
these times when Peerless is on a Buy starts in
1986
when many of the Fidelity Sector funds began.
The
conclusions confirm and also extend what I have learned
in
earlier studies of how Peerless Performance varies
by
industry sectors.
I
have studied 29 Fidelity sector funds. These are the ones
that
go back before the year 2000 and for which I could get
all
the data needed using Dial Data.
Stocks
of Brokerages usually made the best investments
as
a group when Peerless goes from Sell to Buy. $1000 invested
in
this group, FSLBX, in 1986 would have become $340,200 on 2011,
assuming
2% per round trip trade for commission and slippage.
Dividends
were not factored in. Simply Buying when Peerless
gave
an automatic Buy and Selling when Peerless gave an
automatic
Sell and reinvesting fully all proceeds would grown as
shown
in next table.
Other
Select Funds that did very well were Technology,
Electronics,
Computers and Oil Services. Automotives have done
very
well since 2008. At the bottom were the "defensive" groups
Utilities,
Agriculture and Gold.
PEERLESS
TRADING FIDELITY SELECT BROKERAGE FUND
7/9/86
- 3/23/11
1986
$1000
1990
$1416
1994
$3722
1998
$10,266
2002
$32,542
2006
$87,093
2010
$283,509
2011
$340,200 (This is
about 26% per year)
PEERLESS PROFITS: 1986-2011
FSLBX
- FIDELITY BROKERAGE
1 7/ 9/ 86 BUY 12.9 1%
8/ 12/ 86 SELL 13.03 $996
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 9/ 11/ 86 BUY 12.22 21.2%
4/ 6/ 87 SELL 14.82 $1180
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 5/ 19/ 87 BUY 12.07 4%
6/ 8/ 87 SELL 12.56 $1205
------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 6/ 22/ 87 BUY 12.9 1.3%
8/ 26/ 87 SELL 13.07 $1197
------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 9/ 4/ 87 BUY 12.47 -.1%
10/ 1/ 87 SELL 12.46 $1172
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 10/ 20/ 87 BUY 7.88 4.1%
10/ 22/ 87 SELL 8.21 $1197
------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 12/ 2/ 87 BUY 7.31 -12.4% Big Loss
12/ 28/ 87 SELL 6.41 $1026
------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 1/ 8/ 88 BUY 6.62 7%
2/ 26/ 88 SELL 7.09 $1078
------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 3/ 25/ 88 BUY 7.08 5.7%
9/ 6/ 88 SELL 7.49 $1119
------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 11/ 11/ 88 BUY 7.46 32.1%
10/ 4/ 89 SELL 9.86 $1457
------------------------------------------------------------------------
11 10/ 17/ 89 BUY 8.97 -5%
1/ 2/ 90 SELL 8.53 $1356
------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 1/ 23/ 90 BUY 8.25 6.4%
7/ 12/ 90 SELL 8.78 $1416
------------------------------------------------------------------------
13 9/ 24/ 90 BUY 6.82 70.9% Big Gain
4/ 14/ 92 SELL 11.66 $2393
------------------------------------------------------------------------
14 8/ 21/ 92 BUY 11.58 59.8% Big Gain
2/ 3/ 94 SELL 18.51 $3778
------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 4/ 5/ 94 BUY 15.44 .5%
10/ 17/ 94 SELL 15.52 $3722
------------------------------------------------------------------------
16 12/ 1/ 94 BUY 14.63 27.9%
2/ 27/ 96 SELL 18.72 $4688
------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 4/ 10/ 96 BUY 18.62 5.3%
5/ 29/ 96 SELL 19.62 $4846
------------------------------------------------------------------------
18 7/ 11/ 96 BUY 18.34 33.8%
4/ 22/ 97 SELL 24.55 $6391
------------------------------------------------------------------------
19 5/ 9/ 97 BUY 26.68 28.4%
9/ 18/ 97 SELL 34.26 $8079
------------------------------------------------------------------------
20 10/ 28/ 97 BUY 34.36 29%
4/ 21/ 98 SELL 44.35 $10266
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 10/ 1/ 98 BUY 28.26 56.1% Big Gain
6/ 18/ 99 SELL 44.14 $15830
------------------------------------------------------------------------
22 10/ 4/ 99 BUY 40.39 19.6%
12/ 10/ 99 SELL 48.33 $18625
------------------------------------------------------------------------
23 2/ 4/ 0 BUY 46.26 8%
4/ 25/ 0 SELL 49.98 $19750
------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 5/ 3/ 0 BUY 48.05 34.6%
9/ 6/ 0 SELL 64.7 $26199
------------------------------------------------------------------------
25 10/ 20/ 0 BUY 59.73 -1.3%
12/ 8/ 0 SELL 58.96 $25337
------------------------------------------------------------------------
26 3/ 23/ 1 BUY 44.56 6.5%
5/ 17/ 1 SELL 47.49 $26497
------------------------------------------------------------------------
27 9/ 19/ 1 BUY 34.5 21.5%
2/ 26/ 2 SELL 41.95 $31689
------------------------------------------------------------------------
28 7/ 24/ 2 BUY 33.46 4.6%
10/ 15/ 2 SELL 35.03 $32542
------------------------------------------------------------------------
29 11/ 13/ 2 BUY 35.68 10.3%
1/ 6/ 3 SELL 39.36 $35247
------------------------------------------------------------------------
30 1/ 22/ 3 BUY 35.98 35.3%
10/ 15/ 3 SELL 48.71 $47013
------------------------------------------------------------------------
31 11/ 3/ 3 BUY 48.74 11.7%
2/ 11/ 4 SELL 54.46 $51591
------------------------------------------------------------------------
32 5/ 18/ 4 BUY 46.62 2.2%
9/ 2/ 4 SELL 47.68 $51732
------------------------------------------------------------------------
33 10/ 14/ 4 BUY 47.3 18%
12/ 28/ 4 SELL 55.84 $60037
------------------------------------------------------------------------
34 4/ 21/ 5 BUY 51.82 46.3% Big Gain
5/ 5/ 6 SELL 75.85 $86677
------------------------------------------------------------------------
35 6/ 15/ 6 BUY 66.14 2.4%
6/ 30/ 6 SELL 67.78 $87093
------------------------------------------------------------------------
36 7/ 18/ 6 BUY 64.34 14.8%
1/ 5/ 7 SELL 73.91 $98306
------------------------------------------------------------------------
37 3/ 2/ 7 BUY 72.1 6.9%
7/ 17/ 7 SELL 77.13 $103198
------------------------------------------------------------------------
38 9/ 25/ 7 BUY 69.69 6.5%
10/ 15/ 7 SELL 74.25 $107886
------------------------------------------------------------------------
39 11/ 14/ 7 BUY 72.42 1.1%
12/ 6/ 7 SELL 73.25 $106965
------------------------------------------------------------------------
40 3/ 7/ 8 BUY 56.04 5.4%
3/ 24/ 8 SELL 59.09 $110647
------------------------------------------------------------------------
41 7/ 8/ 8 BUY 48.47 5.8%
7/ 23/ 8 SELL 51.3 $114895
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
42 9/ 15/ 8 BUY 46.03 5.6%
9/ 22/ 8 SELL 48.65 $119137
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
43 10/ 8/ 8 BUY 38 -3.9%
10/ 21/ 8 SELL 36.53 $112145
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
44 11/ 21/ 8 BUY 23.58 42.3% Big Gain
1/ 6/ 9 SELL 33.57 $157414
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
45 1/ 21/ 9 BUY 28.26 3.3%
1/ 29/ 9 SELL 29.2 $159502
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
46 2/ 17/ 9 BUY 29.22 -8.7%
2/ 27/ 9 SELL 26.68 $142447
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
47 3/ 12/ 9 BUY 25.62 60.6% Big Gain
6/ 9/ 9 SELL 41.16 $226001
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
48 6/ 23/ 9 BUY 38.41 32.8%
10/ 21/ 9 SELL 51.04 $295794
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
49 11/ 9/ 9 BUY 49.42 -1.3%
11/ 13/ 9 SELL 48.8 $286168
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
50 1/ 22/ 10 BUY 46.68 1%
6/ 16/ 10 SELL 47.18 $283509
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
51 6/ 30/ 10 BUY 42.69 21.9%
3/ 23/ 11 Study Ends 52.08 $340200
4/ 21/ 11 52.95
------------------------------------------------------------------
51 Total long trades
$1000 becomes $340200, allowing 2% slippage per round-trip trade
Average gain using Peerless Buys/Sells=15.5%
Pct of winning trades= 86.2 pct
1 trade resulted in a loss of fmore than 10%
6 gains of more than 40%
|
PEERLESS LONG TRADES AND FIDELITY SECTOR FUNDS
Performance
Thru 3/23/2011
Start
N $1000
Yearly
Avg.
Winning
Pct of Trades
Becomes
Gain Gain/Trade
Trade Pct Losses>10%
=================================================================================
FSLBX Brokerage Inv Mgt
1986 51 $340200
+15.5%
86.2%
1/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSAVX Automotive
1987
47 $105099
+14.6%
74.4%
2/41
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSELX Electronics
1986
51 $150474
+14.3%
76.4%
3/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FDCPX Computer
1986
51 $133558
+13.8%
76.4%
3/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSESX Energy Services
1987 47
$81283
+13.4%
77.5%
4/47
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSPTX Technology
1986
50 $110951
+13.4%
76.4%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSAIX Air Transp.
1986
50 $114355
+13.4%
76.0%
1/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSCSX Software
1986
51 $90913
+12.6%
80.3%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSDPX Select Materials
1987 49
$86967
+12.6%
75.5%
no big losses
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSRFX Transportation
1989
44 $59394
+12.6%
79.5%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSHOX Construction & Housing 1987 49
$68828.
+12.1%
77.5%
no big losses
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSCGX Industrial Equipment
1987 49 $64964
+11.9%
79.5%
2/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FBMPX Multi-Media
1986
51 $55586
+11.5%
76.4%
3/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSRPX Retailing
1986
51 $55732
+11.5%
74.5%
1/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIDSX Financial Servuices
1986 51 $61598
+11.4%
86.2%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSPCX Insurance
1986
51 $72925
+11.4%
94.1%
1/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FDLSX Leisure
1986
51 $50011
+11.0%
80.3%
1/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSHCX Chemicals
1986
51 $54039
+10.8%
82.3%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSRBX Banking
1987
47 $28097
+10.6%
73.4%
2/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSTCX Telecommunications
1986 51 $39971
+10.5%
82.3%
3/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSNGX Natural Gas
1994
37 $13980
+10.4%
75.6%
2/37
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSDAX Military & Aerospac
1986 51 $41931
+10.4%
74.5%
1/37
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FBIOX Biotech
1986
51 $28101
+10.0%
76.4%
2/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FCNTX Contra Fund
1986
51 $33793
+9.7%
86.2%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSLEX Environment & Altern Energy 1989 41
$16725
+9.6%
82.9%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSVLX Home Finance
1986
51 $20947
+9.5%
72.5%
3/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FDVLX Investment Value
1986
51 $29010
+9.5%
86.3%
1/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSENX Energy
1986
51 $23536
+9.4%
76.4%
3/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSPHX Health Care
1986
51 $14887
+8.1%
74.5%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSCBX Small Cap
1998
31 $5286
+8.0%
74.1%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSAGX Gold
1986
51 $6168
+7.6%
64.7%
10/51
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FDFAX Agriculture
1986
51 $9810
+6.9%
84.3%
no big losses
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FSUTX Utilities Growth
1986
51 $5030
+5.5%
74.5%
1/51
/
|