Tiger Software News Service
2/26/2008 www.tigersoft.com Blog 10/7/2007 Trading Food Commodities
Prices of Food Commodities Are Accelerating Upwards.
Hyperbolic Curves in Coomodities Are Dangerous.
How TigerSoft Users Have Profited from This Trend. (At bottom)
It's Obvious To Everyone but Bush and Cheney That
Global Warming Is Already Causing Drought and Famine.
.
by William Schmidt, Ph.D. (Columbia University)
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A
long drought has
been forecasted this year in Spain. |
Tiger
Software Helping Investors since 1981
|
The rising prices for food commodities will be a test of text book economics. Will sky high prices for
corn, wheat, soy beans, coffee and cocoa curb demand and induce more production? The world's population
is estimated to 6.8 billion and growing at the rate of 86 million a year. Global warming is causing drought and
hunger, no matter how much Cheney may argue. The rise in oil prices makes crop production more expensive.
Massive irrigation in the Southwest US may become prohibitively expensive. TigerSoft users will profit
from the steeping uptrend in commodities, especially grains. But the dark shadows of world hunger and famine
are all too real. With good reason, economics was long consider the "dismal science".
A study by David Pimentel, professor of ecology at Cornell University, and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher
at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition "sets the maximum U.S. population for a sustainable
economy at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the United States must
reduce its population by at least one-third, and world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds".
Grow Your Own:
"Organic food seeds, soil, and organic pest deterrents should be a part of every household.
Seeds that can produce food in the short term such as bean or alfalfa sprouts and wheat grass should
always be included in food kits. Sprouts can be grown in small amounts of soil and can produce extremely
healthful food in minimal amounts of time. Seed supplies should contain both vegetables and grains which
will provide for long term food sources as well. By learning hydroponics gardening skills you can be assured
of the ability to grow food even if soil is rendered completely useless or dangerous. It would be wise to
learn to grow your own foods." (Source: http://ezinearticles.com/?Agricultural-Disaster-and-Famine&id=913288 )
Economics - the Dismal Science
Thomas Robert
Malthus (1766-1834) viewed the future dismally. Populationmust inevitably out-strip food and resources. Wars, epidemics and famines are nature's way to check population
growth. "Malthus suggested that only natural causes (such as accidents and old age), misery (war, pestilence,
plague, and above all famine) and vice (which for Malthus included infanticide, murder, contraception and
homosexuality) could check excessive population-growth." Later Malthus "raised the possibility of moral restraint
(that is, marrying late or not at all, coupled with sexual abstinence prior to, and outside of, marriage) as a check
on the growth of population. Many have criticized him, however, for implying that restraint applied only to the
working and poor classes.)" He had proposed the gradual abolition of poor laws that gave no incentive to birth-control,
supporting instead private charity. (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Malthus )
Malthus' views led directly to the Social Darwinism of Herbert Spencer. Famine is nature's way of weeding
out the weak, the dull and the sick. There will always be poverty. It should be accepted by policy makers. Logically,
one should not give out of compassion. It interferes with Nature and one's own self-interest and wealth.
Kissinger’s 1974 Plan for Food Control Genocide
"On Dec. 10, 1974, the U.S. National Security Council under Henry Kissinger completed a classified
200-page study, “National Security Study Memorandum 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for
U.S. Security and Overseas Interests.” The study argued that population growth in the poorer countries was a
"grave threat to U.S. national security." The theory and conclusions were accepted as official policy in November
1975 by President Gerald Ford. NSSM 200 set out a covert plan to reduce population growth in those countries
through birth control, even war and famine. Brent Scowcroft, who had by then replaced Kissinger as national security
adviser (the same post Scowcroft was to hold in the Bush administration), was put in charge of implementing the plan.
CIA Director George Bush was ordered to assist Scowcroft, as were the secretaries of state, treasury, defense, and
agriculture.
The countries the US was concerned about were not the Soviet Union or China. Rather India, Bangladesh,
Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Turkey, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia
were pf special concern, because their rising populations would increase their relative political, economic, and
military strength. .
Famine Is Inevitable
To curb such population expansions, Kissinger advocated policies which encouraged or required
birth control Food should be rationed to those countries meeting birth control standards. But birth control
measures would be insufficient. “Capital investments for irrigation and infrastructure and the organization
requirements for continuous improvements in agricultural yields may be beyond the financial and administrative
capacity of many LDCs (poorer countries). For some of the areas under heaviest population pressure, there is
little or no prospect for foreign exchange earnings to cover constantly increasingly imports of food... It is questionable
whether aid donor countries will be prepared to provide the sort of massive food aid called for by the import
projections on a long-term continuing basis.” Consequently, "large-scale famine of a kind not experienced for
several decades—a kind the world thought had been permanently banished", was foreseeable and would again
be widely seen. (Source: NSX Study Memorandum - 4/24/1974 http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm )
Rapid Global Warming 
"Climate change is happening faster than anyone predicted and its consequences could be dire for the
survival of civilization in the 21st century because of the chaos it will cause in terms of famine, drought and mass
migration, according to a leading scientist, James Lovelock, the inventor of the Gaia theory. Listen.
Africa will suffer the most. China is already suffering the worst drought in fifty years.
People across South Africa descend upon food aid. Six-year-old Evelina Mangiolo in South Africa
Causes of Crop Problems
Drought and higher oil prices are only partly to blame for crop failures. Heat
waves, severe storms
and flooding are factors. So, are insect
infestations. Bees are vital for pollination. But they are mysteriously
disappearing in such alarming numbers that Sixty Minutes
did a story on this last Sunday night. Has their
long-term exposure to pesticides been too much for
them,? Green Revolution? The technologies used
from 1950 to 1984 to produce richer, more
insect-resistant rice and wheat crops and use more more scientific
irrigation and agricultural methods have saved countries
like India, Mexico, Pakistan and Turkey from
large-scale famine. But they may have peaked and the
populations are still growing. And they may
now be leading to the problems that stem from a high
reliance upon pesticides and irrigation, namely
a lowered water-table, salinization and contamination of
water sources for drinking.
| TigerSoft's Accumulation Index Made It Easy To Spot The Take-Off in Food Commodity Prices.. I screen thousands of stocks with TigerSoft, but sometimes it's the commodities that stand out. The charts of Commodity ETFS have really stood out for their bullishness using our standards of very high readings from the Accumulation Index and high relative strength results when prices are compared to the general stock market as measured by the DJI. Look at the extremely high reading from our Tiger Accumulation Index for ETFs that let one buy group of commodity futures: DBA, DBC and also GSG |
| DBA (corn, wheat, soy beans
and sugar) In December, the Tiger Accumulation Index rose above +.50, the threshold we use to spot serious "insider buying".   |
| DBC (light, sweet crude oil,
heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn and wheat.) Massive insider buying for months and months. Much higher prices have to be expected.  |
| GSG (67%
invested in energy, 16% in agriculture, 7% in industrial metals, 7% in livestock and 3% in precious metals ) Note tell-tale bulge of "insider buying" in September.  |
| Corn is up to
540 from 320 since July. Our TigerSoft Commodity trading approach gave a buy at 380 in October 2007 using the rules discussed by our Blog on October 7th. Recent bulge of Accumulation signals a Buy here.   Coffee is up to 160 from 100 since April. Our TigerSoft Commodity trading approach gave a buy at 135 in December 2007 using the rules discussed by our Blog on October 7th. Recent bulge of Accumulation signals a Buy here, too.   |
| Cocoa is
up to 2600 from 1800 since August. Our TigerSoft Commodity trading approach gave a buy at 2200 in January using the rules discussed by our Blog on October 7th. This looks very bullish.   |
| Soybeans
is up to 2600 from 1800 since August. Our TigerSoft Commodity trading
approach gave a buy at 2200 in January using the rules discussed by our Blog on October 7th. Automatic Buys and high Accumulation readings made Soybeans easy to spot for a big advance.   |
Wheat has more than doubled in the last year.  |