What Happens at The Start of the Third Year
of
The Presidential Four-Year Cycle:
1946-2010
(C) 2014 William Schmidt,
Ph.D. www.tigersoft.com
12/20/2014
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Looking only at the transition from
the Second Year in the Presidential Cycle to
the Third Year, we see that the DJI
rises 13/17 of the time over the next two weeks,
to January 5th. In a bull
market environment the odds of a DJI rally in this period
are 75%. By the end of the
January, the DJI was always up in a bull market
environment. This was also
true at the end of April and May in a bull market.
In a bull market, peaks varied.
End
of March 1986-7 (1)
End
of April 1950-1951, 1954-1955, 1998-9 (4)
End
of May 1982-3, 1994-5, 2006-7, 2010-11 (4)
* - bear market
environment
Blue = up from 12/21
Red = down from 12/21
DJIA
12/21 1/5 1/31 2/28 3/31 4/30 5/31
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*1946-7 177.9 176.8 180.4 178.9 177.2 174.0 169.3 Post war
1950-1 230.4 240.9 248.8 252.1 248.6 259.1 249.7 Korean war
1954-5 398.1 397.2 408.8 411.9 409.7 425.7 425.7 Expansion
*1958-9 573.2 590.2 594.0 603.5 601.7 623.8 643.8 Expansion
*1962-3 646.4 662.2 682.8 662.9 682.5 717.8 721.4 Post Cuban Missile Crisis
*1966-7 797.4 805.5 849.9 839.8 866.0 897.0 852.6 Tech boom
*1970-1 821.5 835.8 868.5 878.8 904.4 941.8 907.8 Cheaper money
*1974-5 598.5 734.5 703.7 739.1 768.2 821.3 832.3 End of VietNam war
*1978-9 794.8 830.7 839.2 808.8 862.0 854.9 822.3 Fed tightening
1982-3 1030 1045 1076 1113 1130 1120 1200 Fed loosening
1986-7 1896 1971 2158 2224 2305 2286 2292 Expansion
*1990-1 2634 2523 2736 2882 2914 2888 3028 1st Gulf War
1994-5 3802 3851 3844 4011 4158 4321 4465 Boom as Internet starts
1998-9 8989 9311 9359 9307 9786 10789 10560 Bubble starting
*2002-3 8511 8601 8054 7891 7992 8480 8711 Recession
2006-7 12421 12398 12622 12269 12354 13063 13627 Housing bubble
2010-11 11533 11671 11892 12226 12320 12811 12570 Quant.Easing
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All Up/Total 13/17 15/17 14/17 14/17 14/17 16/17
*Up/Total 7/9 7/9 7/9 7/9 7/9 8/9
Bull Mkt 6/8 8/8 7/8 7/8 9/9 9/9