When Is A Pullback over? 8/9/2014 (C) 2014 William Schmidt, Ph.D www.tigersoft.com ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here we consider cases where there was a : 1) Strong DJI Rebound - (last-low)/last >.014 2) after a decline 4%-13.5% from 35 day high. 3) Only first of these Buys used if there is a series of them in close succession. There were 26 cases since January 1, 2000. in 14 instances, the DJI immediately rose more than 5%. (53.8%) in 5 instances, the DJI fell between 1% and 4% before rallying 5% (19.2%) in 6 instances, the DJI fell more than 5% or had started a bear market. (23.1%) |
8/8/2014 ?????? 1 2/7/2014 15794.08 DJI Rose to 16573 before 3% decline. 2 10/10/2013 15126.07 DJI Rose to 16086.41 on 11/29/2013 3 11/19/2012 12795.96 DJI Rose to 13350.96 on 12/18/2012 4 5/21/2012 12504.48 Fell to 12118.7 before rallying to upper band. 5 11/28/2011 11523.01 DJI Rose to 12196.37 before 3.5% decline. 6 11/2/2011 11836.04 Rose to 12170.18 and then fell to 11523.01 7 10/5/2011 10939.95 Rose to 12208.55 on 10/27/2011 8 9/22/2011 10733.83 Rose to 11190.69 before re-testing lower band again. 9 8/3/2011 11896.44 DJI fell to 10719.94 before rallying to upper band. 10 6/23/2011 12050.00 Immediately rallied to 12719.49 (upper band). 11 6/25/2009 8472.4 DJI fell to 8146.52 before rallying far above upper band. 12 6/5/2008 12604.45 DJI started a deep bear market. 13 10/22/2007 13566.97 DJI fell to 12743.11 before rallying to upper band. 14 7/30/2007 13358.31 DJI fell to 12861.47 before rallying to upper band. 15 7/18/2006 10799.23 DJI immediately rallied above upper band. 16 6/1/2006 11260.28 DJI fell to 10706.14 before tallying 5%. 17 10/24/2005 10385.00 DJI immediately rallied above upper band. 18 4/21/2005 10218.6 DJI immediately rallied 5%. 19 10/26/2004 9888.48 DJI immediately rallied above upper band. 20 7/22/2004 10050.33 DJI fell to 9815.44 before rallying to upper 3% band. 21 5/12/2004 10045.16 DJI immediately rallied to upper band. 22 4/10/20-1 10381.73 DJI plunged into bear market. 23 9/19/2000 10789.20 DJI fell to 9975.02 before rallying to upper band. 24 4/17/2000 10582.51 DJI immediately rallied 5% 25 1/24/2000 11008.17 DJI fell to 9796.03 before rallying back to 11186.56 26 1/5/2000 11122.65 DJI immediately rallied to upper band. |