Septembers Have Brought Tops
and Peerless Sells
45.6% of the time
in Rising Market since 1929
Septembers have a bearish reputation, But the truth is that Septembers
are
much less bearish when the stock market is in a bull market. We know
this
because though the Tiger programs show that for all market environments
since
1965 the DJI rises only 36.2% of the time in the 21 trading days
after
August 31st, in an on-going bull market, there were 25 cases where the
market
continued to rise throughout the month and only 21 September tops.
September
tops are, however, important when they do occur. Fortunately,
Peerless
calls them well. Since 1929, in bull markets,
Septembers have brought
21
tops and successful Peerless Sells. None of the Peerless Sells failed
to
produce a profit. Paper losses were usually very small. 12 of the
September
Peerless Sells resulted in DJI declines of more than 5% at
the
time of the next Peerless Buy signal.
In
an on-going bull market, there were 25 cases where the market
continued
to rise throughout the month:
1936 DJI did not peak until 11/17, rising from 166.3 to
184.9
1942 - DJI did not peak until end of December, rising from 106.3 to 119.4
1944 147.1 to 142.9 on 9/14 and then 151.9 on 12/29/1944
1945 - 174.3 ---> 192.9 on 12/31/1945
1947 - 178.3 ----> 184.8 Sell S4 on 10/22/47 and 2.7% decline.
1949 - up strongly on Peerless Buys from end of Aug to end of year.
1950 - 216.9 to peak on 10/6 at 231.7 and then decline to lower band.
1953 - 261.2 to 255.5 bottom and the up until end of year, 280.4.
1954 - up strongly on Peerless Buys from end of Aug to end of year.
1963 - up strongly from end of Aug to end of year.
1964 - up strongly from end of Aug to end of year.
1965 - up strongly from end of Aug to end of year.
1968 - up strongly from end of Aug to December 2nd and Sell S1.
1970 - up steadily from 9/22 to end of year.
1980 - up until 11/14 and Sell S9
1982 - up strongly until 12/7 and Sell S9
1983 - up strongly until 11/22 and Sell S4
1989 - Up until 10/6 and Sell S9
1995 - Up until end of year.
1996 - Up until end of year.
1997 - Peak on 10/7. There had been a Sell S12 on 9/18
2003 - Up until end of year.
2006 - Up until end of year.
2009 - Up until end of year.
2010 - Up until end of year
I
leave out cases where a bull market was already correcting before September.
11 Bull Markets in Correction at start of
September:
1956 10/1 Bottom and rally at year-end.
1959 9/21/ Bottom Buy B17s - Rallied until end of year.
1961 9/25 Bottom and rally to year-end
1971 9/7 Peak and Sell S2 with 10.3% decline
until next Buy.
1972 Declined until 10/16/1972 and then up until end of year
1985 - Declined slightly until 9/17 and then up until end of year.
1986 - Decline ended on 9/26 with Buy B1 and rallied until end of y
1992 - Decline ended on 10/8 with Buy B2/B17 and rallied until end of y
1993 - Decline ended on 9/21 with B9/B17 and rallied until end of year.
2005 - Decline end on 10/13/2005
2011 - Bottom in 10/4 on Buy B8 until end of year.
The September Nemesis and
Peerless Sells
In on-going Bull markets, the market usually does not top out in August,
The tops wait until September to be made, even when a Sell occurs in August.
There have been 21 successful September Peerless Sells, 8 of them
coming in the first nine days. There have been only 3 successful late August
Peerless Sells, In just as many cases, the August Sell did not "kick in"
until it was reinforced by a September Peerless Sell.
Late-August/September Market Tops
in On-Going Bull Markets
1929 - Aug 28 Sell S12 - DJI rallied until September 3 and famous Sell S9-Crash!
1935 - Sept 9 - Sell S2 - 3.3% DJI drop
to next Peerless Buy
1939 - Sept 13, Sell S9 - 3.3% DJI drop
to next Peerless Buy
1943 - Sept 20 - Sell S2 - 7.1% DJI drop
to next Peerless Buy
1946 - Sept 9 - Sell S13 - 5.2% DJI drop to
next Peerless Buy.
1951 - Sept 17 - Sell S4 - 5.3% DJI drop to
next Peerless Buy.
1952 - Sept 10 - Sell S10 - 5.3% DJI drop to
next Peerless Buy.
1955 - Sept 20 - Sell S8 - 5.3% DJI drop to
next Peerless Buy.
1967 - Sept 14 - Sell S7 - 7.5% DJI drop to
next Peerless Buy.
1975 - Aug 29 Sell S9/S12 - DJI rallied until September
4 when S9 brought 5.2% DJI decline to next Buy.
1976 - Sept 24 - Sell S1 - 4.2% DJI drop to
next Peerless Buy.
1978 - Sept 8 - Sell S12 - 12.7% DJI drop to
next Peerless Buy.
1979 - Aug 22 - Sell S8 - DJI rallied until September 20 and
S7 which brought 9.5% DJI decline to next Buy.
Exception 1987 - Aug 26 - Sell S4 brought DJI drop of 5.2% on next Peerless Buy.
1991 - Sept 5 - Sell S1 - 4.0% DJI drop to
next Peerless Buy.
1994 - Sept 2 - Sell S1 - 2.3% DJI drop
to next Peerless Buy.
Exception 1999 - Aug 20 - Sell S9 - 9.7% DJI drop
to next Peerless Buy.
2004 - Sept 7 - Sell S2 - 3.8% DJI drop
to next Peerless Buy.
2007
- Sept 19 - Sell S2 - 6.2% DJI drop to next
Peerless Buy
Exception 2011 - Aug 30 - Sell S12/S9 - 7.8% DJI drop
to next Peerless Buy
2012
- Sept 19 - Sell S8 - 5.6% DJI drop
to next Peerless Buy
2013
- Sept 10 - Sell S12 - 1.7% DJI drop
to next Peerless Buy