Bottoms of DJI Declines:of more than 4%
That Then Produce Rallies to Upper Band, at least.
www.tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Oct-NovBottoms/index.html
(C) 2014 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
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Conclusions:
Only 10 of 46 (21.7%) cases were declines of 7% and under.
In 28 of the 46 cases (60.9%), there was an October bottom.
In 17 of the 46 cases (37.0%), there was a November bottom.
30 of 46 cases (65.2%) had declines of 10% or more.
Bottoms occurred in the middle of the month (days 11-21) only 11/46 (23.9%) of the time.
The most common (26/46 or 56.5%) Peerless Buy signals were
Buy B17s (10/46) - 21.7% - DJI falls to lower band with markedly improving IP21 and P-I
B2s(9/46) - 19.6% - DJI falls to lower band at certain times in Pres. cycle.
In the year of mid-term Elections, there are no B2s in October
and 5 in November. All had gains of 5% or higher.
19381129 B2 147.1 .05
19401127 B2 129.8 .017
19431110 B2 132.7 .236
19481110 B2 174.5 .033
19481119 B2 177 .018
19481130 B2 171.2 .053
19501106 B2 222.5 .164
19521016 B2 264.9 .102
19561120 B2 470.1 .048
19561129 B2 466.6 .056
19581125 B2 540.5 .203
19721016 B2 921.66 .137
19761110 B2 924.04 .065
19801027 B2 931.74 .059
19821122 B2 1000 .057
19841010 B2 1177.23 .096
19841116 B2 1187.94 .086
19861118 B2 1817.21 .324
19881111 B2 2067.03 .124
19881121 B2 2065.97 .124
19911211 B2 2865.38 .17
20001020 B2 10226.59 .06
B3s (7/46 ).- 15.2% - Stochastic-20 turns up followings its NC of a new DJI low.
In 6 of the 46 cases (13.0), there was no Buy signal before the DJI rallied to the upper band.
Decline October Nov Dec.
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47% 11/13/1929 B16
30% 11/10/1930 none
27% 11/3/1932 none
20% 10/19/1933 none
4.5% 10/2/1935 B11
40.0% 11/24/1937 B16
6.0% 11/30/1939 B2
18.0% 12/23/1941 earlier B17
11.0% 11/30/1943 B9
23.0% 10/9/1946 B8
7.0% 11/23/1951 earlier B17|
6.0% 10/22/1952 earlier B2
10.0% 10/11/1955 B17
11.0% 11/28/1956 B2
19.0% 10/22/1957 earlier B3
13.5% 10/25/1960 B2, B17
23.0% 10/23/1962 B3
25.0% 10/7/1966 B8
10.0% 11/8/1967 B17
17.0% 10/8/1969 none
16.5% 11/23/1971 B3
5.0% 10/16/1972 B2
35.0% 10/4/1974 B8
11.0% 10/1/1975 B3
9.0% 11/10/1976 B2
20.0% 10/25/1977 none
13.0% 11/15/1978 B3
12.0% 11/7/1979 B17
5.5% 10/30/1980 B2/B9
19.0% 10/27/1981 B9/B17
5.0% 10/10/1984 B9
33.0% 10/19/1987 B16
7.5% 11/6/1989 earlier B17
21.0% 10/11/1990 B17
8.0% 10/9/1992 B3, B17
7.0% 11/23/1994 B3
13.5% 10/27/1997 B19
12.0% 10/18/2000 B1,B2
31.5% 10/9/2002 B16
9.0% 10/25/2004 B9
4.5% 10/13/2005 none
37.0%, 42% 10/27/2008 B1 11/20/2008 B16
16.5% 10/3/2011 B8
10.0% 11/16/2012 B2
6.0% 10/8/2013 B9
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28 cases 17 cases 1 Case 46 Total Cases
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days 1-10 11 6 17
days 11-21 7 4 11
day 22-31 10 7 1 18
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B1 - 2 B1 - 2
B2 - 5 B2 - 4 B2 - 9
B3 - 4 B3 - 3 B3 - 7
B8 - 4 B8 - 4
B9 - 4 B9 - 1 B9 - 5
B11 - 1 B11 - 1
B16 - 2 B16 - 3 B16 - 5
B17 - 5 B17 - 4 B17 - 1 B17 - 10
B19 - 1 B19 - 1
None - 4 None - 2
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