Statistics regarding test of lower band from July 20th to August 17th: 1928-2014 www.tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/LateJuly-EarlyAugust/index.html 38 tests of lower band on the 10 days before August 1st and during the first 17 days of August. In 8 cases, a bear market followed. In 8 additional cases, the DJI fell at least 3% before rallying. In 15 cases the DJI either immediately rallied or did so a day later. Of these 4 occurred with the DJI slightly below the 65-dma as now. 7/27/1945 .980 -.571 -619 +12 -.235 -328 -.383 -.019 DJI immediately rallied up past upper band. 8/6/1957 .964 -.563 -452 -31 -.118 -394 -.249 -.007 Kept falling in bear market. Previous Sell S9. 7/21/1960 .968 -.528 -186 -11 -.126 -333 -.266 -.016 Fell from 616.6 to 601.7 on 7/25 and rallied to upper band. 7/30/1999 .964 -.340 -231 -34 -.01 -98 -.135 -.018 DJI rallied to upper band. Of the 38, 10 occurred with the IP21 between -.02 and -.05. 4 of these 10 dropped much further because DJI was in a bear market. One more dropped an additional 3% before rallying. 8/16/1940 .978 -.163 -175 -15 -.048 -35 -.136 -.061 Rallied immediately up past upper band. 7/27/1943 .966 -.29 -70 -57 -.046 -90 .079 .034 Fell from 138.8 to 134.0 on 8/2/1843 and rallied to upper band. 8/2/1968 .966 -.397 -326 1 -.052 -14? -.242 -.03 Immediately rallied up past upper band. 7/29/1971 .968 -.279 -269 -79 -.045 -2? -.053 -.091 DJI fell from 861.42 to 839.59 on 8/10 and rallied to upper band. 7/27/1977 .975 -.538 -76 -75 -.04 -2? -.071 -.042 Continued to fall in bear market. 7/28/1986 .973 -.692 -239 -42 -.045 -17 .121 -.032 Immediately rallied to upper band. 8/3/1998 .967 -.312 -630 -61 -.048 -104 -.163 -.031 DJI continued to fall in a bear market. After Sell S9/S12 7/24/2001 .979 -.413 -20 -29 -.046 -153 -.187 -.033 DJI continued to decline in a bear market. Earier S4/S11 8/2/2002 .974 -1.041 -491 -36 -.03 -471 -.442 -.174 Fell one more day and then rallied to upper band. 7/29/2011 .971 -.112 -186 -106 -.029 -148 -.23 -.044 DJI continued to fall very sharply until October. Earlier S9 |
Tests of Lower 2.9% - 5.2% Band -------------------------------- 8/1/2014 .972 -.448 -333 -2 -.031 -113 -.176 -.006 8/9/1929 .977 -.172 -352 -26 -.14 -654 .136 .044 Rallied from 338 to 381.2 and then crashed. ------------------------------------------------------------- 8/8/1930 .949 -.233 -110 -39 .015 -172 .092 -.156 Fell from 228.2 to 216.2 in two days and rallied to 245.1 ------------------------------------------------------------- 7/22/1931 .968 -.112 +117 -10 .033 -34 .063 -.089 Fell from 142.5 to 134.1 on 8/5/1931 before rallying to UB. ------------------------------------------------------------- 7/20/1933 .949 .129 +56 -30 -.161 -344 .133 .586 Fell from 96.3 to 90.8 on 7/31 and rallied above upper band. --------------------------------------------------------------- 7/23/1934 .951 -.688 -582 -23 -.332 -194 -.523 -.129 Fell from 91.9 to 87.5 on 8/7 before rallying to upper band. --------------------------------------------------------------- 8/12/1938 .963 .059 -186 -15 -.015 -83 .025 .151 Immediately rallied to 2.5% upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 8/10/1939 .966 .023 -92 -49 -.048 -3 .12 .026 Fell from 137.3 to 131.3 before rallying way up past upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 8/16/1940 .978 -.163 -175 -15 -.048 -35 -.136 -.061 Immediately rallied up past upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/27/1943 .966 -.29 -70 -57 -.046 -90 .079 .034 Fell from 138.8 to 134.0 on 8/2/1843 and rallied to upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/27/1945 .980 -.571 -619 +12 -.235 -328 -.383 -.019 Immediately rallied up past upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/23/1946 .958 -.461 -454 -50 -.124 -188 -.124 -.063 Immediately rallied to upper 1.6% upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/30/1948 .969 -.521 -395 -46 -.104 -237 -.165 .001 Fell from 181.1 to 179.3 on 8/11 and then rallied to upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 8/9/1955 .974 -.397 -232 -43 -.093 -285 .055 .058 Immediately rallied past upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 8/6/1957 .964 -.563 -452 -31 -.118 -394 -.249 -.007 DJI continued to fall in a bear market. Previous Sell S9. -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/21/1960 .968 -.528 -186 -11 -.126 -333 -.266 -.016 Fell from 616.6 to 601.7 on 7/25 and rallied to upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/22/1963 .974 -.507 -393 -16 -.194 -705 -.447 -.028 Immediately rallied up past upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 8/1/1966 .956 -.475 -376 -25 -.138 -7? -.309 -.110 DJI continued to fall in a bear market. -------------------------------------------------------------- 8/2/1968 .966 -.397 -326 1 -.052 -14? -.242 -.03 Immediately rallied up past upper band, -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/22/1969 .966 -.665 -427 2 -.159 -2? -.213 -.098 Fell from 834.02 to 801.96 and rallied to upper 2% band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/29/1971 .968 -.279 -269 -79 -.045 -2? -.053 -.091 Fell from 861.42 to 839.59 on 8/10 and rallied to upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/20/1972 .979 -.483 -379 -16 -.138 -3? -.357 -.061 Immediately rallied to upper band. -------------------------------------------------------------- 7/31/1974 .969 -.741 -287 -17 -.133 -3? -.189 -.094 Immediately rallied to upper 3% band. ------------------------------------------------------------- 7/23/1975 .965 -.386 -34 -70 -.063 -1? -.134 .025 Fell from 836.67 to 793.25 on 8/20 before rallying to upper band. ------------------------------------------------------------ 7/27/1977 .975 -.538 -76 -75 -.04 -2? -.071 -.042 DJI continued to fall in a bear market. ------------------------------------------------------------ 7/21/1981 .967 -.758 -422 -29 -.153 -6? -.390 -.071 DJI continued to fall in a bear market. ------------------------------------------------------------ 8/5/1982 .970 -.055 -114 -21 -.006 -4? -.137 -.069 Fell from 795.85 to 777.21 on 8/11 and then exploded upwards. ------------------------------------------------------------------ 8/8/1983 .965 -.435 -433 -32 -.019 -14 -.043 -.047 Immediately rallied to upper band. ------------------------------------------------------------------| 7/24/1984 .972 -.473 -383 -21 -.067 -14 -.329 -.062 Immediately rallied up past upper band. ------------------------------------------------------------------ 7/28/1986 .973 -.692 -239 -42 -.045 -17 .121 -.032 Immediately rallied to upper band. ------------------------------------------------------------------ 7/27/1988 .974 -.309 -199 +9 .092 -15 .002 .009 DJI fell from 2066.99 to 1990.22 and then rallied to upper band. ------------------------------------------------------------------ 8/2/1990 .977 -.191 -259 -132 .098 -22 -.072 .073 DJI continued to fall in a bear market. After S9s. ----------------------------------------------------------------- 7/24/1996 .967 -.778 -462 -70 -.13 -80 -.157 -.038 Immediately rallied rallied up past upper band. ----------------------------------------------------------------- 8/3/1998 .967 -.312 -630 -61 -.048 -104 -.163 -.031 DJI continued to fall in a bear market. After Sell S9/S12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 7/30/1999 .964 -.340 -231 -34 -.01 -98 -.135 -.018 Immediately rallied to upper band. ----------------------------------------------------------------- 7/24/2001 .979 -.413 -20 -29 -.046 -153 -.187 -.033 DJI continued to fall in a bear market. Earier S4/S11 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 8/2/2002 .974 -1.041 -491 -36 -.03 -471 -.442 -.174 Fell one more day and then rallied to upper band. ------------------------------------------------------------------ 7/26/2004 .976 -.561 -40 -58 -.142 -306 -.261 -.035 Fell from 9961.92 to 9815.33 on 8/6/2004 and then rallied to upper band. ------------------------------------------------------------------ 7/29/2011 .971 -.112 -186 -106 -.029 -148 -.23 -.044 DJI continued to fall very sharply until October. ----------------------------------------------------------------- |