Perless Buy B21
(C) 2014 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
November
26, 2014
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The new
Peerless Buy B21 occurs in October, November and December
when the
DJI's Accumulation Index rises above +.22. The DJI must be above
its 21-day
ma. No additonal Buy B21 is given for 15 trading days. These
signals
test very well. Though they do not change the trading results of someone
simply
switching from Peerless Buy to Peerless Sell and then to Peerless Buy,
their
special bullishness should help users.
They
average 15.6% gains in 17 trades. The median gain is 10%, thus showing
by their
occurrence, that the market is quite possibly running much higher. Only
five of the
Buy B17s would have produced a paper loss. There was one paper
loss of
5.4% (12/1/2009).
When a
signal occurs in the 4-year Presidential cycle and what its key values
seems
to have a bearing on the size of the subsequent gain of a Buy B21 signal.
Conclusions
Highest
Percentage of Gains over 10%
3
of 4 when signal occurs in Second Year of Presidential Election Cycle.
6
of 9 when LA/MA> 1.03
6
of 9 when P^^ <459
5
of 7 when V-I <50
3
of 5 in Novembers
Lowest
Percentage of Gains over 10%
0
of 2 when it occurs in Presidential Election Year
2
of 8 when P^^ > 460
2
of 9 when V-I was 50-499
---------------------------------
BUY B21s: 1928-2014 ---------------------------------
DJI Gain Paper
LA/MA P^^ IP21
VI Reversing
Loss
Signal Date
11/11/2014
17615
------ -------- 1.039
+613 .258
+85
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 11/30/1934 102.9
1.1%
3%
1.042
+481 .22
+51 S16 12/31/1934
-------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 10/1/1943
109.7 29.8%
none 1.02
+341 .237
+37 S19 5/15/1945
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 10/1/1945
183.4 8.6% none
1.031 +785 .291
+188 S9 1/10/1946
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 11/5/1945
189.5
5.1% none 1.019
+496 .248 +113 S9
1/10/1946
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 10/10/1949
185.2 19.1% none 1.016 +452
.234 +86 S8
5/18/1950
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 11/2/1949
192.9 14.4%
2.6% 1.03 +366
.237 +69 S8
5/18/1950
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7
12/14/1949 198.5
11.1% none 1.027
+461 .272 +107 S8 5/18/1950
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 12/15/1952
286
2.1% none 1.015 +547 .222
+150 S16 12/30/1952
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9 10/29/1953
276.3
69.6% none
1.032 +265 .209 -6 S8 7/27/1955
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10 11/23/1962
644.9
18.5% none 1.057
+867 .261 +848 S9 12/5/1963
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11 10/1/1973
948.83
4.0% none
1.042 +523 .256 +
2 S9 10/26/1973
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 11/111985
1432
27.5% none 1.04 +431 .227
+13 S19 4/29/1986
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13 12/2/1986
1956
23.0%
2.4%1.036 +34 .264
+1 S9
4/6/1987
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14 12/91988
2173
6.9% none 1.029
+55 .234
+12 S4 2/9/1989
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 10/22/2001
9377
7.9%
1.2% 1.035 +339 .231
+78 S15 2/26/2002
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16 12/1/2009
10472
4.0% 5.4% 1.023 +299 .283
+69 S3
3/23/2010
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 12/2/2010
11362
12.7% none 1.014 +47 .230 -24 S8 5/2/2011
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Avg. Gain = 15.6%
Median Gain = 10.0%
Avg. Paper Loss = -.9%
Gains
Over 10% 9 cases
5%-9.9% 4 cases
3%-4.9% 2 cases
1%-2.9% 2 cases
Presidential Election Years
2.1%,
6.9%
Year after Presidential
Election Year
8.6%,
5.1%, 19.1%, 14.4%, 11.1%, 69.6%, 4.0%, 27.5%, 7.9%, 4..0%
Two Years after Presidential
Election Year
1.1%,
18.5%, 23.0%, 12.7%
Three Years after
Presidential Election Year
29.8%
October
29.8%, 8.6%, 19.1%,
69.6%, 4.0%, 7.9% (6)
November
1.1%, 5.1%, 14.4%, 18.5%,
27.5% (5)
December
11.1%, 2.2%, 23.0%, 6.9%,
4.0%, 12.7% (6)
The key
values on the Buy B21 were mostly quite positive.
high low
LA/MA
1.057 1.015
Adjusted
P-Indicator (P-^^) 867
34
IP21
.283 .22
V-I
848 -24
Gains
LA/MA
=>1.04 1.1%, 18.5%, 4.0%, 27.5%
LA/MA
1.03-1.39 8.6%, 14.4%, 69.6%, 23.0%, 7.9%
LA/MA
1.02-1.29 29.8%, 11.1%, 6.9%, 4.0%
LA/MA
<1.02 5.1%, 19.1%, 2.1%, 12.7%
Gains
P^^ >460
1.1%, 8.6%,
5.1%, 11.1%, 5.9%, 2.1%, 18.5%, 4.0%
P^^ 300-459
29.8%, 14.4%, 27.5%, 7.9%
P^^ 150-299
69.6%, 4.0%
P^^ <150
23.0%, 6.9%,
12.7%
Gains
V-I
>500
18.5%
V-I
100-499 8.6%, 5.1%, 11.1%, 2.1%,
V-I
50-99 1.1%,
19.1%, 14.4%, 7.9%, 4.0%
V-I
0-49
6.9%, 23%,
27.5%, 4.0%, 29.8%
V-I
<0
12.7,
69.6%
Conclusions
Highest
Percentage of Gains over 10%
3
of 4 when signal occurs in Second Year of Presidential Election Cycle.
6
of 9 when LA/MA> 1.03
6
of 9 when P^^ <459
5
of 7 when V-I <50
3
of 5 in Novembers
Lowest
Percentage of Gains over 10%
0
of 2 when it occurs in Presidential Election Year
2
of 8 when P^^ > 460
2
of 9 when V-I was 50-499
Background Research
New
research tonight casts a very bullish light on the current market.
The current
TigerSoft Accum. Index (IP21) on the DJI now stands at +.288.
It has been
above +.225 every day since November 11th, or 8 straight days.
Market
history since 1928 shows this to be a very bullish situtation.
I invented
the Accumulation Index way back in 1981 to measure insider
and
institutional buying and selling in an intra-day basis.
When this
high a level of current Accumulation occurs in the last 3 months
of the
year, we can readily surmise that Professionals and Institutions
are taking
big positions ahead of what expect will be the normal November
to May
stock market advance.
Below are all the
similar cases when the IP21 rose above +.22 since 1928
in the last three
months of the year. We only consider cases where the
DJI was above its
21-dma. It may also be significant how many days in
close proximity
the IP21 is above +.22 Here we only count the first day
the IP21 reached
this level. More work will be done studying how the
key values
correlate with the success of this signal. My thinking now is
that the results
are so good that this should be made into a new Peerless Buy
signal.
More on this on Sunday night's Hotline.
Results for Prospective New Buy B21
Subsequent Gains No.
Years Occurring in
Instances
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
over 10%
9
1943, 1949 (2), 1953, 1963, 1985, 1986, 1988
5%-10%
4
1945 (2), 2001, 2010
3%-5%
1
1% - 3%
3
1934, 1952, 1973, 2010
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17
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Table 1 CASES
WHERE IP21 WAS ABOVE +.22 SINCE 1928 IN LAST 3 MONTHS OF THE YEAR Hotline Study - November 22, 2014 One other condition: The DJI must be above 21-day ma Codes: LA/MA - % of DJI above 21-dma P** = PI adjusted for verying number of stocks traded on NYSE IP21 = Current Tiger Accum. Index V-I = 21-dma of 85% Up Vol- 100% Down Vol Current Case: 11/11/2014 17614.8 eleven instances of IP21>.22 here. LA/MA=1.039 P^^=+613 IP21=.258 V- +85 -------------------------------- Cases between 1928 and 2013 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 11/30/1934 102.9 ---> 99.6(3% initial decline)--> 107.2 (2/18/1935) Peerless Gain = + 1.1% SMALL GAIN Paper Loss = 3% then --->LB and then up and away! Only one instance of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.042 P^^=+481 IP21=.22 V- +51 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 10/1/1943 109.7 ---> Peerless Gain = + 29.8% UP and AWAY (Superb!) No Paper Loss eleven instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.02 P^^=+341 IP21=.237 V- +37 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 10/1/1945 183.4 ---> 205.8 (2/4/1946) Peerless Gain = + 8.6% No Paper Loss twelve instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.031 P^^=+785 IP21=.291 V- +188 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 11/7/1945 192 ---> 205.8 (2/4/1946) Peerless Gain = + 5.1% Paper Loss = 0.7% three instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.03 P^^=+562 IP21=.258 V- +148 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 10/10/1949 185.2 ---> 228.2 (6/12/1950) UP and AWAY (Superb!) Peerless Gain = + 19.1% No Paper Loss seven instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.03 P^^=+562 IP21=.258 V- +148 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 11/2/1949 192.9 ---> 228.2 (6/12/1950) UP and AWAY (Superb!) Peerless Gain = + 14,4% Paper Loss = 2.6% Only one instance of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.03 P^^=+366 IP21=.237 V- +69 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 12/14/1949 198.5 ---> 228.2 (6/12/1950) UP and AWAY (Superb!) Peerless Gain = + 11.1% No Paper Loss eight instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.027 P^^=+461 IP21=.272 V- +107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 12/15/1952 286 --> 293.8 (1/5/1953) ---> 11% decline. Peerless Gain = + 2.1% SMALL GAIN Only one instance of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.015 P^^=+547 IP21=.222 V- +150 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 10/29/1953 276.3 ---> 340.3 (7/7/1954) or 468.5 on 7/27/1955 next Peerless Sell S8 UP and AWAY (Superb!) Peerless Gain = + 69.6% No Paper Loss four instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.032 P^^=+265 IP21=.209 V- -6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 11/23/1962 644.9 ---> 725.9 (6/5/1964) UP and AWAY (Superb!) Peerless Gain = + 18.5% No Paper Loss two instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.057 P^^=+867 IP21=.261 V- +848 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 10/1/1973 948.83 ---> 987.06 (10/26/1974) Sell S9 SMALL GAIN Peerless Gain = + 4.0% No Paper Loss eleven instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.042 P^^=+523 IP21=.256 V- +2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 11/111985 1431.88 --> 1821.72 (3/27/1986) UP and AWAY (Superb!) Peerless Gain = + 27.5% No Paper Loss Only one instance of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.04 P^^=+431 IP21=.227 V- +13 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 12/2/1986 1955.57 ---> 2405.54 (4/6/1987) UP and AWAY (Superb!) Peerless Gain = + 23.0% Paper Loss = 2.4% four instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.036 P^^=+34 IP21=.264 V- +1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X 10/211988 2183.5 ----> 2038.58 Simultanous S1/H/S (11/16/1988) ----> 2347.14 (2/7/1989) then roars higher. The Sell S1 prevents the Buy B21. Only one instance of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.027 P^^=+101 IP21=.253 V- +13 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 12/91988 2172.68 --> 2347.14 (2/7/1989) UP and AWAY (Superb!) Peerless Gain = + 6.9% No Paper Loss Only one instance of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.029 P^^=+55 IP21=.234 V- +12 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 10/22/2001 9377.03 --> 10259.74 (1/4/2002) Peerless Gain = + 7.9% Paper Loss = 1.2% three instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.035 P^^=+339 IP21=.231 V- +78 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 12/1/2009 10471.58 ---> 12391.25 (2/18/2010) Peerless Gain = + 4.0% Paper Loss = 5.4% four instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.023 P^^=+299 IP21=.283 V- +69 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 12/2/2010 11362.41 ---> 12391.25 (2/18/2011) UP and AWAY (Superb!) Peerless Gain = +12.7% No Paper Loss two instances of IP21>.22 LA/MA=1.014 P^^=+47 IP21=.230 V- -24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |