A Study of cases where IP21 drops from day to day on DJI
by .085. Use this as the Sell S17 when it occurs in
September and the DJI is above its 21-day ma.
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(C) 2014 September 20, 2014
William Schmidt, Ph.D.
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#1 9/18/1933 105.3 to 84.4 Very Good Peerless Gain = 7.7% but dropped 20% in 2 months..
#2 9/9/1941 127.4 to 129.3 to 106.3 Very Good Peerless Gain = 13.2%
#3 9/22/1982 937.61 to 896.25 3 1/2% Good Peerless Gain = 3.4%
#4 9/20/2013 15451.09 to 14776.53 Good Peerless Gain = 3.3%
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Avg Decline = 6.9%
All 32 Cases:
>15 cases 3% decline without a rally of more than 4%
> 1 case 2% decline
>16 cases loss of more than 5%
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September Cases
9/18/1933 105.3 to 84.4 Very Good (DJI dropped below LB)
9/9/1940 127.4 to 129.3 to 106.3 Very Good (DJI dropped below LB)
9/22/1982 937.61 to 896.25 3 1/2% Good (DJI dropped to 3% LB)
9/20/2013 15451.09 to 14776.53 Good (DJI dropped to 3.5% LB)
7/30/1930 231.1 to 217.2 Good
7/3/1933 103.8 to 109 to 89. Bad - Early.
9/18/1933 105.3 to 84.4 Very Good Peerless Gain = 7.7% but dropped 20% in 2 months.
7/10/1934 98.1 to 85.5 Very Good
10/25/1934 94.2 up and away. Bad
2/19/1935 105.9 to 97.0 Good
6/12/1935 153.7 up and away. Good
5/10/1938 117.9 to 107.9 Good
6/30/1938 133.9 to 144.9 to 133.7 Bad
7/29/1938 141.2 to 144.5 to 130 Good
10/6/1938 148.1 to 158.1 to 146.1 Bad
5/10/1939 132.8 to 140.1 to 130 Bad
5/25/1939 135.5 to 140.1 to 130 Bad
7/17/1940 122.8 up and away. Bad
9/9/1941 127.4 to 129.3 to 106.3 Very Good Peerless Gain = 13.2%
7/15/1943 144.9 to 129.6 Very Good
6/1/1944 142.1 to 150.2 Bad
7/15/1944 172.5 up and away. Bad
7/25/1951 258.1 up and away. Bad
10/26/1955 455.7 up and away. Bad
7/17/1962 577.9 up to 620 before falling to 560. Bad
11/5/1980 953.16 to 932.42 and back to upper band. 3%Good
8/10/1982 829.42 up and away. Bad
9/22/1982 937.61 to 896.25 3 1/2% Good Peerless Gain = 13.2%
12/3/1982 1031.36 to 992.63 4% Good
3/21/1986 1768.56 to 1735.51 2% OK
4/4/1989 2298.19 up and away. Bad
4/17/1978 810.12 up and away. Bad
11/26/1997 7794.78 to 8110.84 to 7679.31 Good
6/22/2011 10293.52 to 9686.48 Good
9/20/2013 15451.09 to 14776.53 Good Peerless Gain = 3.3%
3/21/2014 16302.77 to 16026.75 then up -1.2% Bad
9/19/2014 17279.74 to ?