TIGERSOFT Power-Ranker.
(C) 2009 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
7/1/2010
2010
Traders should be running ANALYSIS from Peercomm
and
the using the "BULLISH"
searches of the "MAXCP"
stocks,
whose Closing Power is making new highs...
or
using the "BEARISH"
searches of the "MINCP"
stocks
whose Closing Power is making new lows...
STEP
BY STEP
From
Tiger Data Page, download data using MAXCP.exe and MINCP.exe
From
PEERCOMM, Click SELECT FOLDER button and choose C:\MAXCP or v:\MINCP
After
ANALYSIS is done, return to PEERCOMM menu.
Choose
upper button on right, CHARTS-2010
Click
DAILY STOCKS button
Instead
of picking a stock, chose #12 BULLISH or #11 BEARISH
Toggle
through the graphs using the down-arrow (2) key on right of keyboard with
NUMLOCK
turned off. The (8) key will take you up a stock.
SPREAD SHEET ANALYSIS
Alternatively,
look at the qualifying stocks in a spread sheet.
From
the Main Tiger Page (tiger menacing bull and bear), use pull-down menu
and
choose one of the items there: Bullish, Bearish, Groups...
The
spread sheet shows you from left to right the following values for each qualifying
stock:
Power
Ranker value - composite index of strength:
>500
is normally bullish and <-500 is notmally bearish.
AI/200
- how many days of last 200, the Accum. Index has been positive.
>140
qualifies as bullish and <-70 is bearish.
OBV%-Pt%
shows divergence between price and OBV for last 100 days.
>+30
is normally bullish... <-30 is normally bearish.
0
shows there is no divergence:
which
for new highs means a bullish confirmation of a new high
and
for new lows means a bearish confirmation of a new low.
IPA%-Pr%
shows
divergence between price and IPA for last 100 days.
>+30
is normally bullish... <-30 is normally bearish.
0
shows there is no divergence:
which
for new highs means a bullish confirmation of a new high
and
for new lows means a bearish confirmation of a new low.
Current
IP21 - Current value of Accum. Index
>.45
shows insider buying and <-25 shows insider selling
new
highs need an IP21 of +.20 to confirm and
new
lows need an IP21 of <-.12 to confirm.
Close
= Closing Price
Trend
of 50-day ma
AR
= Above rising - bullish
BF
= Below falling - bearish.
AF
= above falling and BR = below rising.... Neutral.
CL/21-dma
= Close divided by 21/dma.
UP%
- percentage of days a stock is up on a daily basis.
60%
is over-bought
40%
is oversold.
MACD
Signal
TGR
Signal - first D or U relates to Opening Power's momentum on a 21-day basis.
-
second D or U relates to Closing Power's momentum on a 21-day basis.
-
Closing Power best predicts price.
-
Opening Power can be wrong for a long time.
DD
declining Opening Power and declining Closing Power - BEARISH
UU
rising Opening Power and rising Closing Power - BULLISH
TIGERSOFT SUPPORT AS YOU START USING THIS SOFTWARE
Call (858) 273-5900 or email william_schmidt@hotmail.com.
Important - More studies that will help you are posted on www.tigersoft.com, on TigerSoft's data page
and the The Elite Stock Professional Sunday reports.
===============================================================================================
WHAT AN
EXPLOSIVE SUPER STOCK LOOKS LIKE.
Screening fpr BULLISH,
B!2, B24, BOTH UP and NEW HIGHS
finds stocks like these..
WHAT SUPER BEARISH STOCK
LOOKS LIKE.
Screening fpr BEARIISH, S12, BOTH DOWN
and NEW LOWS finds
stocks like these.
PLEASE - 2 FAVORS WE ASK OF YOU
Read this manual carefully and, please, do not share with others the discoveries of
our hard work and original thinking.
The materials are copyrighted and except for your own use may not legally be reproduced in
any form without our written approval.
If you have not already, purchased them, you will find the following books by Dr. Schmidt helpful.
Twenty Five Percent A Year: The Experience of TIGERs
POWER-STOCK-RANKER,
1970-2000, with Safer Blue Chips. Long-term invetsors should read this
carefully.
Over and over, the highest accumulated stock in DJI-30 is a steady gainer for the enxt 21
months.
Explosive Super Stocks: How To Recognize Them Early but Not
Over-Stay Ones Welcome.
Traders will find this our most comprehensive treatise on trading stocks. An update is
being worked on.
Short Selling: Fun and Killer Profits in Any Market. While
this would seem to be of valuable mainly to
aggressive traders, it will help anyone learn to recognize the signs of impending weakness
in a stock.
Hereafter Blue = Commands to be entered.
Features of TIGERSOFT with Summary of Operational Commands:
1) Automatic Buy and Sell Signals on all charts.
---- The DJI Peerless signals have been backtested for the period 1915
to 2008.
---- The optimized / user selected stock signals are
based on internal strength and momentum formalae
which are
discussed in the HELP routines.
The optimized signals appear automaticaly.
To change the number of signals appearing:
TigerSoft + Run/Setups + Set Initial Screens' Signals + Y (upper right)
+ any number (0-4, 1 is the initial setting.
2) Update/Flag/Rank and Edit up to 10 directories of stock data. Each directory
can hold a maximum of
1,000 stocks with one command. Note thgat the data we offers is usually limited to a
maximum of
about 400 stocks. If you use Dial Data as an outside data - source, you put any 1000
stocks you want to
in the directory.
(Run flagging/ranking
program against assumed directory) TigerSoft + Run/Setups +
Run Nightly Analysis
(Run
flagging/ranking program against a set of specified directories,)
TigerSoft + Run/Setups + Run New
Analysis/Ranking/Optimization
Enter the Tiger Data directories to be used in left(white) column.
Click Save you Entries (at bottom)
Click Check your entrys (To be sure each directory is updated.)
Click Start Flagging/Ranking 2004
Viewing Results:
3) View POWER rankings and Pct.Change Rankings with Rank Divergences on up to 1,000
stocks.
Then immediately graph a stock by clicking on the row containing the ranking data for that
particular stock.
This is a great time-saver.
TigerSoft + Ranking Results + (21, 50, 100, 200)
Pct/Change and Ranking Divergences
4) View Flag up to 1,000 stocks using more than 300 bullish and bearish conditions. You
may immediately see a
graph by clicking on the key values row for that particular stock.
TigerSoft + Tiger Selections + Tiger Groups, Lists and
Explanations
5) Find special stocks that meet up to six different TIGER criteria.
TigerSoft + Tiger Selections + Multiple Factor Screenings +
seclect conditions (up to 6) + Display
6) Find stocks that had a particular TIGER Buy or Sell signal in the previous 10 days.
TigerSoft + Tiger Selections + Tiger Groups, Lists and
Explanations + HistB1-B37 or Hist1-Hist37
7.) Back-test various combinations of signals to see what happens to $10,000.
Place the signals on a chart. Operations + What Happens to
$10,000
8) Without running the Full Power-Ranker and Analysis, you may rank the stocks in a
directory
by Percent Change, AI/200, Current Accumulation for as many days
back as specified.
TigerSoft + Ranking Results + User Set Rankings + number of
days + (1-5)
Below you will see the typical sequence of activities followed by most TIGERSOFT users
as they run our software. Soon they will become easy and routine. Note that you may change
these to suit your own needs. Tigers POWER-RANKINGS will save you an enormous amount
of time.
They let you find the stocks that our techniques consider the most bullish and bearish
over the
next three to six months. If you are bullish, because of a Peerless major Buy or even for
short-term
trading Buys, look at the Bullish stocks in the directories of data that you
maintain. If you are bearish,
look at the Bearish stocks. If you use our data, dont forget to look at
the Bullish stocks in the
HOTSTKS data, and the Bearish stocks in the NEWLOWS
data. This should be right at the top
of the list of things to do.
Run the TIGER POWER STOCK RANKER programs.
There are three ways to do this.
1) The easiest way - using just the data in the current assumed directory is:
Peercomm Menu + Tiger Menu (older Graphs) + Run/Setups + 1st Choice
in column.
This
unfortunately does not flag B24s.
2)
Viewing the Power Ranking Results.
Peercomm
+ View + Check off the Tiger Power Ranking circle.
Note the results that appear. The stocks are ranked by POWER as we define it.
At its extremes, it is a fine predictor of where a stock will go in the next few
months.
Favor the top 10 of 500 or more. Those that are rising fast in rank are also attractive.
Remember the top Power Ranked stocks and those that have the highest IP21/200
scores generally do much better than average. The highest ranked stocks using
Accumulation or Power Ranking will almost always be the top performers
over 3-6 months. The only exception is at the start of a bull market when beaten
down and heavily shorted stocks get big plays for a couple of months.
Long Term Investors, Buy The Stock with The Highest IP21/200 (also called AI/200)
The very highest IP21/200 stocks are those we buy using the TIGER
blue chip system
that has gained 25% per year on average since 1970. This we call the Tahiti system because
of its simplicity. Do not use this approach with non-blue chips if they are below their
200-day ma.
Low priced stocks with high Accumulation shouold be making new highs or, at least,
be above their 50-day ma to be considered good long speculations.
Note now that OBV%-Pr% measures how much stronger the OBV
(aggressive buying)
Line is than price. We suggest that the OBV%-Pr% should generally not be much below 0
in a stock that is being bought. A reading below -.30 is bearish and a distinct warning.
OBV shows aggressive buying or selling pressure. When a stock has overhead supply
created by earlier peaks, it usually takes aggressive buying to eat up that supply of
stock
and let the stock rally.
IPA%-Pr% measures how much better the IPA (patient buying) Line is
compared to
the line of price over 100 days. IPA%-Pr% values greater than +.40 typically show the
stock
has ample support to make buying it on weakness near price support advisable. Later you
can study Dr. Schmidts manuals and inspect the HELP routines for more explanation of
these concepts and how best to use them as trading and investing tools.
Now close the screen and go back to the PEERCOMM menu.
GRAPHS
With the Analysis completed, lets graph the highest POWER Ranked stock.
From the
PEERCOMM screen click the grey button that says CHART. This takes you to the
Main Tiger Menu. On this screen our logo, a tiger menacing a bull and a bear,
appears.
Use the Pull-down menu at the top that is labeled Ranking Results.
Now choose Tiger Power Ranking. This shows the same table you saw
before except
that there are some new columns of key data.
Current IP21 is the current value of the TIGER Accumulation Index,
as opposed to how
consistently the indicator has been positive for the last 200 days, which is what
AI/200 or
IP21/200 measure. Experience teaches us that the best stocks to Buy have an
IP21 greater
than .20. Stocks making new highs near their upper band with an IP21 less than zero (red)
are
vulnerable and frequently are excellent shorts.
TISI is the 21-day moving average of IP21. We teach traders to buy
stocks whose IP21
is above a rising TISI and to sell short stocks that have an IP21 below their falling
TISI.
Short-sellers will discover that they can capture the biggest gains by holding a stock
short
only while its IP21 is below its TISI Line.
The direction of the 50-day mvg. avg. is also shown. This is important for
intermediate-term traders. We generally recommed buying stocks that are AR,
above a
rising 30-week mvg. avg. (BF would signify that the stock is bearishly
below its falling
50-day mvg. avg.). If a stocks 50 day moving average is relatively flat, take the
red Buy
signals as a sign to take long positions and the red Sell signals to initiate
short positions.
Cl/21dma tells you by how much percent the stock is above or below
its 21-day mvg.
avg. Since strong stocks typically bounce up from their rising 21-day mvg. avg, this is
a useful measure as to how close the stock is to being a BUY. You will want to inspect
the chart to see more information.
Click on the row of the top ranked stock (or any other you may like) and then click
on the Graph button. A chart of this stock appear. It will show the optimized
signals
automatically.
Before showing what this graph means, we want to show you how you can graph any stock..
GRAPHING ANY STOCK OR ALL STOCKS
IN A USER-SELECTED GROUP OF STOCKS
Close the screen until you return to the main TIGER Menu (the tiger is meancing the
bull
and bear.) At the lower left of this screen click on the button that says Graph
Daily
Individual Stock. Find the stocks symbol in the list on the left
side of the screen
and double-click on it. For example, enter MSFT (Microsoft). A price chart appears
on the top part of your screen. It shows the the last years daily price ranges as
vertical
bars. A horizontal bar shows each days closing price.
GRAPHING A SPECIFIED GROUP OF
STOCKS
AND BUILDING A LIST FOR AN INDEX
Instead of choosing an individual stock to graph, you may also graph all the stocks
that
are in a particular group. These groups represent all the stocks that have met certain
flagged
conditions. These flagged stocks are discussed at more length below. In addition, you may
also graph all the stocks that you pick to be in a particular watch list. Watch lists
always
begin with the prefix $$.
To create a watch list go back to the PEERCOMM 8-button display.
Pick the Tiger Stocks pull-down menu.
Then choose Edit Watch Lists.
Next choose Add New List.
Enter the name with the first two letters being $$. For testing purposes
enter $$ALLSTK.
Do not enter a name with more than 6 additional characters.
Next click on Select All Symbols. (Alternatively you might have clicked on just a few stocks.)
Then click Close and Close.
Now from the 8-button PEERCOMM screen click the CHART button.
Then click Graph Daily Individual Stock.
Then choose $$ALLSTOCK.
GRAPHS IN SERIES
After a graph appears you can go to the next stock in the list simply by hitting the
down-arrow
key on the right side of your key-board. To go back to the previous one click on the
up-arrow key.
THE GRAPHS
See also the instructions for the TigerSoft Graphing Program.
Moving Averages as Measures of Momentum and Trend
Various colored moving averages of price are shown on the same graph. For an
explanation,
pull-down the Help sub-menu at the top right and inspect the first few items there.
Suffice
it to say here that there is a red 21-day mvg. avg. with fixed interval bands
above and
below the 21-day mvg. avg. by a fixed amount. A stock normally (93% of the time) stays
within the confines of its bands. When it exceeds the bands, it often means that it will
be moving
much further in that direction. On the other hand, when a rally fails to cause prices to
reach
the upper band, it often means the stock will be weak.
The blue-50-day moving average is vital for traders. It defines the
intermediate-term trend.
When prices drop below the 50-day mvg. avg., there is often a rush to the exits in high
tech
stocks, especially if the 50-day mvg. avg. then turns down and the Accumulation Index is
negative.
The same is true on moves above the 50-day mvg. avg.
The pink-30 week mvg. avg. is a longer term measure. When prices drop below it
on a
closing basis with the Accumulation Index negative, it is long-term bearish. Similarly
when prices
rise back above the 30-week (also treated as 149-day) mvg. avg, it is bullish, provided
the
Accumulation Index is positive.
Red vertical bars shows unusual trading volume. As you read more and inspect a
growing
number of charts, you will notice that unusual trading volume often caps a price move
unless
there has been a price breakout or breakdown beyond well-tested resistance or support.
Breakouts in RED are much more reliable.
INTERNAL STRENGTH INDICATORS
Our main Internal strength measures are:
(1) the volume characteristics of the stock
(Volume and Spilt Volume)
(2) how well the stock has performed compared to other stocks or to an
index like the Dow Jones Industrial Average . (RSQ and ITRS)
(3) how well the stock closes near the high for the day
(bullish, when occurring regularly or on high volume.)
or at low for the day (bearish, when on high volume or regularly.)
(Accum. Index, AI/200, IP21, IPA, IDOSC, Larry Williams Index)
(4) how far the stock closes away from the opening. (down in bearish and up is
bullish.)
(Closing Power, Opening Power, Closign Power Pct.)
(5) how far up from the opening is the daily high and compared with
how far down fromthe opening is the daily low. (Tiger Day traders' Tool)
Initial Choice of Internal Strength Indicators To Be
Displayed.
TIGER gives you two initial type of charts. One shows an OBV Line (aggressive buying),
the Accumulation Index (patient big-money buying, often by insiders) and ITRS
(Intermediate-term Relative Strength) Indicator. The other shows only the Accumulation
Index
and gives you written formulations regarding the stocks OBV strength and its
Relative Strength
(how it is doing compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It also reaches a Technical
Conclusion.
You can pick which of these inital graphic displays you want to appear. Go back to the
Main Tiger Menu and click on the the sub-menu Files at the upper
left. Choose Initial
Graph Choice and then enter N and N at the two queries that
follow. This produces a
simpler chart with a written technical conclusion. When you become more skilled you will
probably want to see the display that initially shows you the OBV and ITRS indicators
as well as the Accumulation Index.
Internal Strength Indicators.
Subsequent Displays of Internal Strength Indicators. Once a chart is displayed
you can pick
from numerous internal strength, volume, momentum and relative strength indicators. These
always appear at the bottom of the screen. They are placed on the screen using Indicators(1),
Indicators(2) or Indicators(3). Our HELP routines on the top right
give quick guidance.
Reading about these sub-surface measures of a stocks strength in our manuals is the
next step.
Most important, however, is experience. The more you put into the manuals, the more you
will
get out of of our software and the more the predictive patterns of price and volume will
take on
real meaning. Look at lots of graphs. In particular, start noticing what the internal
strength readings
were on a stock just before it made a big move up or down.
Dont be afraid to experiment. You cant hurt anything that cant be
replaced with a new
installation Please notice that you can always go to Operations and use one of the
choices
there to redraw your chart.
LINES - The Simplest Way To Spot Price Trends, Support and Resistance.
Drawing a line between two spots on the price chart will come in handy. Place a
chart on the
screen and draw a line through the stocks recent tops and bottoms without having the line
go
through any intra-day prices. This is done by using the pull-down menu Lines
at the top
of the screen. Pick Rubber-Band Lines. Now point the mouse at one of
the stocks recent
price highs and drag the resulting line across so that it goes through another high
without
going through any other price action. This is said to be a resistance line.
Do the same
thing with bottoms. This is said to be a support line. To be reliable
support and resistance
lines should go through 3 or more separate points each separated by at least a few days.
You may also draw lines between two points using the Diagonal Lines
feature. In this
case just point the mouse at two different points on the screen and click the
left-mouse key
once at each point. This should cause a diagonal line to appear. Where the line extended
to
the right now crosses is shown on the screen. You may also want to experiemnt with
Vertical and Horizontal Lines.
There are many chart patterns that books on technical analysis set out as predictive.
You will
do well to read one or two. The basic ideas in all of them are simple: try to spot a
trend
early, buy at support and sell at resistance. However, know that broken resistance
becomes support and broken resistance will probably be resistance. Our software has
tried to encapsulate these concepts into automatic buy and sell signals. As much as we
have
tried, there are still may times when a close inspection of the chart is necessary. The
computer
just cant be trained very satisfactorily to recognize well-tested diagonal support
and resistance
lines, nor can it replace the actual search for head and shoulders tops.
APPLYING TIGER BUY AND SELL SIGNALS - BASICS
Using Automatic Signals To Spot Important Technical Developments in Your Stocks.
Any TigerSoft chart you choose should show OPTIMIZED RED Buys and Sells. These are
discussed at length in the instructions for TigerSoft. Market conditions change and that
can
change the Buys and Sells from day to day. So it is necessary to note the technical
condition
of the stock. Besides looking at the internal strength indicators and the chart patterns
present
by the stock, we suggest using the fixed rule Buys and Sells. When you have a chart on the
screen,
these signals may be placed on the chart using the choices under Signals-1. These fixed
rule
automatic buy and sell signals may be used for automatic trading, but it is better to use
most
of them as advisory and note
them as warnings of changing technical conditions.
The signals can be applied to commodities but not to open-end (mutual) funds, because
they
have no daily price range or volume figures.
Not all signals are equally important. The major BUY signals (B4, B10, B12 and B24)
typically
have much more power than other buy signals. They are relatively uncommon. However,
you can easily learn of new cases by using our flagging program or by subscribing to our
Elite Stock Professional (ESP) service.
The major sell signals are more varied. I classify the following as major sell
signals: SELL S4, S9, S14, S24, S25, S26, S27 and S29. Of these I believe the S4 is
most
important. This sell signal, however, does not occur until the stock violates its 30-week
mvg. avg.
Traders should make liberal use of the S29 as a way to lock in profits in over-extended
stocks.
With low-priced stocks that enjoy a meteoric rise over $20 (These we call
"piffle" stocks),
the best signals for catching their peaks are the SELL S9, S14, S24, S25, S26, S27 and
S34.
Placing buy and sell signals on the screen is easy.
First, place a chart of a stock on the screen. Next simplify the display. Under Operations
pick Restore Simple Bar Chart, Now go to the sub-menu Signals.
Notice the way the
signals are organized. Signals 1-9 should be used for a stock in a
rising trend. You can
use your own judgement here, if you wish. You can also use the Technical
Conclusion
our software offers. This appears at the bottom of the screen using one of the initial
graph choices
mentioned above.
The highest Power-Ranked stocks, certainly those above the 85%ile, should be considered
uptrending unless they violate their pink 30-week mvg. avg. or unless they violate major
support.
See HELP routines, particularly those The Trend is Our Friend to Tiger
Stock Trading Signals.
There is another easy way to assess the stocks direction. Use our regression
channel tool.
With a stocks chart on the screen, go to the Lines pull-down menu
and pick the Least
Squares Regression Channel and Regression Channel Statistics.
A stocks whose
regression line percent gain is more than .25 must be considered uptrending, unless it has
just
fallen below the lower regression band.
Now place the major signals on the screen for a riising or falling trend stock.
If none appear work down the list, until some minor signals appear.
Start learning what the signals mean. Use the HELP routine on the right of the
screen. Pick the
sub-menu choice: Tiger Stock Trading Signals. Look up the meaning of
the last signal on
your screen. Next go back to the chart and make a listing of all the signals. Use the
Operations
sub-menu and pick Trading Results: All Signals .
USER CHOSEN SIGNALS
You may readily see a listing of all the TIGER buy and sell signals by pulling down the
File
sub-menu at the top left when a chart of a stock is on the screen and then by and choosing
Build/Run User Defined Signals Set. You might want to print this
out. Highlight some
of the signals that seem interesting. For example, if you like to sell on strength and buy
on
weakness, you might highlight B6 and S6. These are
common. And near the upper bands
they are usually reliable. Enter a name like TEST in the box at the
upper right of the screen.
Click the Save Name button. Do not use any prefixes (like
C:\stocks ) or suffixes (like .txt).
Now click the button Apply Selections Now. The graph with the
appropriate signals appears.
You may clear the screen and redraw the chart by using the first option under the
Operations
sub-menu. Now place the set of signals you have just built a name for on the new screen.
Pull
down the sub-menu entitled Signals and choose the third item Display
User Defined Signals
Set. Enter Test or whatever name you have assigned to a set of signals.
The approriate signals
appear on the price chart.
TIGER automatic buy and sell signals. With a chart of the screen, you can place them on
the
screen, one by one, simply by using the Signals pull-down menu and
selecting
Display User-Set Signals. Enter a signal among these possibilities:
B1...B37 and S1 ...
S37.
HELPFUL INT: Note that you can switch to another stock by simply hitting the
down-arrow key on the right side of your key board, provided the NumLock key is
toggled to the off position.
HELP ROUTINES
We have constructed the HELP routines to reinforce the most important lessons and
images.
Please study these charts carefully and then look for new examples of the same phenomenon,
the same price and internal strength characteristics. In time you will see how helpful and
how
profitable recognizing these key technical signatures can be,
For Convenience I list the HELP sections here.
Stock Graph explanation.
Stock Price bands.
The trend is Our friend.
Bullish Aspects in A Chart
Negative Non-Confirmations
Bearish Aspects in A Chart
High Tech Stock Trend Switch to Down
High tech Stock Trend Switch to Neutral
High tech Stock Trend Switch To Rising
Indicators, Terms, Concepts
Tiger Stock Trading Signals
Evaluating Stocks Already Owned
Over-Extended Speculative Stocks
Short Selling Techniques
Back-Testing The TIGER Signals
Display a stock that has been uptrending for some time, the technical conclusion should
be
wither Bullish or else the screen should say Long term price trend is
Bullish . By bullish
rating we mean that the stock was above its 30-wk. mvg. avg. (long-term trend was
up) ,
its 50-day mvg. avg. was rising (intermediate-term trend was up) and the stocks
Internal
Strength rating was positive and bullish.
Using the Signals pull-down menu, place the bullish signals on the
screen. Know that
they most clearly apply to the period of time that the stock was above its rising 50-day
mvg.
avg. To see how well the signals did in the past pull down the Operations
sub-menu.
Choose What Happens to $10,000 (buys and sells -includes short sales-) or
(buys only)..
There are times when you might want to place buy and sell signals on the screen where
you believe you would have taken the signals. You may add or suppress a signal by
using the pull-down menu Lines. Choose the first item in the sub-menu.
Next point
the mouse at the signal to be cancelled or the place where it is to be added. Enter either
X
(for cancel) B (to add a buy signal - a BUY B28) or S
(to add a SELL S28).
As a result a vertical line appears at the point you have specified. Move the mouse
pointer
to the far right and left-click it. The signal still appears but not when you display the
results or
calculate what would have happened to $10,000, allowing $40 for each reversing BUY or SELL
to cover commissions and slippage (the difference between the bid and the ask.)
You might want to place a judged B at the point where there is a diagonal
trend-break to the
upside, or on an upside breakout over the 50-day mvg. avg. or the rising 21-day mvg. avg.
You may also want to place it after 5 tests of a support level. And you may want to use
the judged B
when a breakout takes place past well-tested resistance which is not signalled
automatically by a
BUY B5 or BUY B10. Use some of the ideas in our Explosive Super Stocks and
Short Selling: Killer Profits in Any Market.
You may also exclude an area of the screen for signals. This would be correct where the
main
signals do not apply. This would be proper where the stock shifts from uptrending to
neutral
because it violates a long-uptrendline or violates its 50-day mvg. avg.
This off-limits area for signals is set up as follows:
Pull the Lines sub-menu down from the top of the screen.
Pick the first item in the resulting sub-menu.
Then point the mouse at the line you have just drawn showing where the trend changed
from bullish
to bearish. Click the mouse once.
Then point the mouse to the far right of the screen and click again.
You will see a horizontal line under the dates. This marks the area in which no
signals will appear when they are next drawn.
Now put on the screen signals appropriate for a different trend.
Check the trading results as shown above.
To start again with the same stock and have all the signals wiped out, simply
pull down the sub-menu Operations and click on Restore Original Stock
Chart. The earlier signals and exclusionary zone are blanked by picking any of the Restore
Original Chart options under Operations.
TIGERs BUY and SELL Signals: Some Practical Applications:
UPTRENDING STOCKS and SIGNALS
You will have the greatest success, we believe, applying the automatic TIGER BUY
signals to the very highest accumulation and highest POWER ranked stocks.
A stock whose %ile is above 85% should certainly be considered uptrending until there
is a major SELL S4 or S9. You can determine the POWER ranking percentile by selecting
this under the OPERATIONS sub-menu after a chart is on the screen. The HELP
routines
illustrate the importance of finding and buying stocks that have persistent and massive
accumulation
and are in uptrends or are breaking out to the upside.
You will generally have much better than average success applying these BUY signals
to strongly uptrending stocks, ones that show a major B20, so long as they stay above
a rising 50-day or 30-week mvg.avg. and thus do not show an S4 or S29.
In most cases a simple visual inspection will tell you if the stock is uptrending.
Using the least squares line and getting the least squares statistic will tell you
by how much. Certainly, a least squares line that is rising by 25% or more should get
you to
emphasize the TIGER buy signals. Unless there has recently been a SELL S4 or SELL S29,
treat such stocks as UPTRENDING and apply the signals from this group.
In a stock that is in an uptrend and has an AI/200 score over 185, use
the B21 with confidence.
These signals represent temporary pullbacks below and then above a 21-day mvg. avg. In
these
cases also use the B11 - Stochastic BUY; the B13 - turns upwards of the 21-day mvg. avg;
and
the B31 - MACD BUY. In these stocks, dips toward the lower band that produce BUY B8's
should also be bought.
The B8's tell us that the stock's new low was not confirmed by any of the 3 classic
measures
of internal strength, OBV, IPA and Stochastic20. Also use the B30. This signal tells you
there
is an extreme 100-day divergence between either OBV% and Price% or between IPA% and
Price%. Since a stock's trend is more apt to continue than suddenly change, especially if
there
are ample signs that the stock is still under big-money accumulation, use the individual
minor
OBV, IPA and Stochastic-20 non-confirmations as BUYS.
In thinner, less seasoned stocks that have risen 50% or more from their base,
take profits when you get an S20 - S13 combination sell signal or an S31 MACD SELL.
These
tell you the short-term direction is now down. In an over-extended "piffle"
stock this is can be a
dangerous situation. Even before the
intermediate-term price trend (based on a 21-day mvg. avg.) has turned down, you often
get
excellent sell signals based on S21, S22, S23 using defaults, as well as the major S9,
S14, S24,
S25, S26, S27 and S28.
With uptrending stocks, I suggest placing preset signal-bunches on the screen using the
sequence (1), (2), (3) and (9). You can clear the screen at any time by re-drawing the
original graph
(under OPERATIONS). Note that you can place these signals on the screen individually.
The MACD - B31 (and S31) are particularly valuable trigger signals. Act on them when
there previously
has been another recent major buy (or sell) signal. Be on the look out for such
combinations as
a B8-B31 or an S9-S31 over a week.
MIXED-TREND
STOCKS - LOWER VOLATILITY
and TIGER SIGNALS
Mixed or neutral trend stocks are "YO-YOs". They should be considered
short-term trading
vehicles only. This is not to say that they make better short-term trades than purchased
UPTRENDING stocks. The optimized Buys and Sells will probably be based on a
Stochastic.
Use these signals until the stock breaks below the best support line or above the best
resistance line.
Those lines may be flat or converging.
To establish that a stock is in a mixed or neutral trend, check the Least Squares. Line
to be sure
that the line is not rising faster than 25% or falling 25% on an annualized basis. Inspect
a stock,
too. Is it holding above easier support but not making new highs? Be on the alert for the
end
of a trading range. Be able to spot points of serious price deterioration and breakdown or
strength and breakout to the upside.
The best automatic sell signals to first display show volume and momentum
non-confirmation.
"warnings". These probably should not be taken as signals to buy or sell, rather
they should
be used as warnings of an impending reversal. With mixed trend stocks apply the automatic
TIGER counter-trend signals. On the buy side these are the B1, B2, B7, B8, B9 and the B30,
B32, B35 and B36.
On the sell side, the counter-trend signals are an S1, S2, S8, S9, S30, S32, S35 and S36.
Note than the B30 and S30 register extreme divergences between the 100-day price action
(Pr%)
and its OBV% and IPA%. Treat all S9 (negative non-confirmations by the IP21) as important.
The B8's and S8's are also very useful. Of less importance are the B34's and S34's, which
register
that a 50-day high or low was not confirmed by the RSI.
Most of these counter-trend signals will work well with neutral trend stocks provided
that that
they are not above their upper band or below their lower band or are breaking out to the
upside
or breaking down below well-tested support.
The trend-change signals (B5, B10, B12, B24 and B37) will tell you when a neutral trend
is
turning upwards. Similarly, the S4, S5, S10, S12 and S37 signals will tell you when a
neutral-trend
stock is turning down.
These trend-change signals work reasonably well with stocks that have had relatively
limited volatility.
They work less well with stocks that are swinging back and forth in a broad trading range.
I have
suggested considering any stock that has a regression channel volatility greater than 40%
to be a higher volatility.
MIXED TREND STOCKS OF HIGHER VOLATILITY
and TIGER SIGNALS
When the regression channel for a stock is more than 40% wide, say, we would classify
it as being
highly volatile. In these cases if the stock's regression line is flat for the past year,
you will probably
have limited success with the counter-trend signals. These stocks have a habit of
exceeding their first OBV,
IPA and
Stochastic-20 non-confirmations. Counter-trend signals based on volume and momentum
non-confirmation
work best when the stock is approaching its year-long regression
channels.
Apply the trend-change signals with some care with these stocks. They tend to make
bigger swings
because their old highs and lows are farther apart. The B29 and S29 are still very
reliable.
With these more volatile stocks, traders should be aware of when they may be starting a
bigger move.
To see this try the B16 and S16. These will tell you when the 21-day moving avg. crosses
the 30-wk mvg.
avg. upwards or downwards, respectively. The B32 and S32 anticipate the B16 and S16. They
tell you
that the 21-day mvg. avg. is crossing above or below the 50-day mvg. avg. In a rising
general market, the B32
and then the B16 signify institutional buying is beginning in what will probably be a
trend that should last for
more than a month. Similarly, the S32 and S16 tell you that institutions are backing away
from or selling
the stock outright and it should move lower for the next month or two. Such observations
should be
confirmed by a widening movement of the Accumulation Index in the same direction.
With these broad-swinging neutral trend stocks, I would use the MACD BUY and SELLs if
the B31 and S31,
especially if there case of the B31) or distribution in the case of the S31. B31's should
also work well when a
stock is coming off a successful test of its major support. S31's should be used when a
rally fails at well-tested
resistance. Lastly, use the B31s and S31's when the longer term regression channels have
been reached.
DECLINING TREND STOCKS
and TIGER SIGNALS
Use the declining trend signals whan a stock is blow its 65-day ma.
The Least squares line should be falling at a -.25% rate.
Use it also if there has been a decisive support failure, an S4 and an S10 or S12
without a major B4, B10, B12, B20 or B29 augmented with a positive Accumulation Index a
the same time.
First, place the major BUY signals on the screen.
Secondly, place the minor sell signals from those listed under declining trend stocks'
signals
on the screen. This will show minor new highs which are not confirmed by OBV, IPA and the
Stochastic-20. It will also show the S6 reversal days and mechanical Stochastic-S20 S11
and MACD S31
sell signals. The mechanical signals should work best when they follow down-arrows
indicating OBV (red),
IPA (blue) and Stochastic (white) non-confirmations of minor new highs. I particularly
like S6's in this
environment. They show high volume reversal days downward.
Thirdly, put the trend-continuation sell signals for down-trending stocks on your
screen. These are
the S4, S5, S10, S12, S13, S14, S16, S18 and S37.
Fourthly, put the sell on-a-rally sell signals for downtrending stocks. These are the
S1, S2, S3, S7,
S8, S9, S15, S30, S32 and S35.
Last, place the minor buy signals on the screen. If the internal weakness in a stock as
measured
by OBV and the Accumulation Index is not too weak, the minor buy signals for down-rending
stocks take on more importance. The minor buy signals may be used for covering a short
sale once its
downside objective has been obtained (see my short selling manual) or the lower band of
the least squares
line has been reached.
A Word about Insider Buying and Selling.
In most cases, we can't easily identify who is buying or selling big blocks in stock.
SEC filings
are delayed and the release of these filings represents a further delay and loss of
timeliness.
Nevertheless, I have theorized the way in which a large block of stock might be
accumulated by someone
who has insider information or his pals.
"BIG MONEY ACCUMULATION" is seldom spoken of with precision and on;y
infrequently given a
working definition that lends itself to mathematical precision.
A stock would be under accumulation if it stayed in a flat-topped trading range, below
its old highs,
but still regularly closed near its highs, especially on days when volume is high. From
this behavior
we deduce that someone is watching the stock. They are stalking it. They are buying it in
a stealthy,
unhurried fashion. This is very different from the behavior of a stock behaving randomly
or being whipped
about erratically by wild public swings of greed and fear.
Stocks showing steadily positive TIGER accumulation readings are those that are likely
to have a
buying cushion underneath them and are likely also to be "TIGHTLY HELD", that
is, owned by
investors who can not easily be induced to sell their stock even on a rally of say, 25% or
even 50%.
High accumulation stocks are thus safer than most, to buy, as a general rule, but they
also are more
likely to rise swiftly, if aggressive buying is introduced into the picture, because the
stock starts to rise
quickly, thereby attracting performance-minded traders and institutions.
As I use the term "accumulation", it means that the stock's shares are moving
from the
"WEAK HOLDERS", who are more:
"emotional" (Greed, fear and impatience are money killers.), whose
stock ownership is "weaker"
(less tenacious and determined), "poorer" (less deep-pocketed and
more subject to selling from fear),
"manipulatable" (less experienced in the ways of the market), "uninformed"
(less knowledgeable about
the particular company)", and more the "impatient".
to "STRONG HOLDERS", whose stock holdings are acquired over a longer
period of time, because they do not wish to disturb prices as they build up really
big positions, whose
holdings, moreover, are based on careful planning and serious study. These are the
"strong" hands.
Note, in particular, that they have much more money and can not so easily be scared
into panic selling.
In many cases these are the very people that make the news or start the rumors. They are
the insiders.
For further discussion of big-money accumulation and the role of insiders,
please see my
Explosive Super Stocks, especially page 54.
8 TIGERSOFT Methods of Identifying Insider Accumulation:
TIGERSOFT believes you can find stocks that are being accumulated using at least
different approaches.
1. Look for stocks that show lengthy posititve (blue) Accumulation (AI) readings.
Look at the data in ACCUMLA on the Tiger Data page.
2. Look for stocks that show big spikes of accumulation.
The AI readings go above .50 and then simultaneously or within a few months
the stock
makes a new high. (B12 and B24 major buys).
3. TigerSoft's Closing Power is in an uptrend and above its 21-day ma.
Opening Power may be falling. If it is
also rising, the stock may be approaching a
climax. Draw trendlines with the Closing Power. Treat this as the
price. Look
for price patterns from it, breakouts and breakdowns. After a long run,
draw steeper
Closing Power Trendlines.
4. A strong stock has flat tops and only minor pull-backs.
5. The stocks OBV Line is rising to new highs ahead of price and when the stock
declines the OBV Line hardly declines at all.
6. The stock is outperforming the DJI or other key averages. It has high relative strength.
7. The stock is at the top of the price change ranking for 50-days.
8. The stock shows a Closing Power that is making new highs ahead of price doing the same.
9. The stock frequently advances on days when the DJI goes down. The Asynchronicity
Index
(under Indicators 2) is making new highs even when the stock is not.
10. The stock is among the first to make a 12 month high after a bear market.
Lengthy Positive readings from the TIGER Accumulation Index.
If the stock is gradually rising, this probably represents steady buying on weakness by
institutional buyers
who are purchasing big blocks of the stock regularly on nearly all intra-day dips. Here we
use the TIGER's
AI/200 score. This is simply the number of days the Accumulation Index has been
positive of the last 200.
Finding the stocks in the DJI-30 that have the highest AI/200 scores has
regularly found fine blue chip gainers for us. See my Twenty-Five Percent A Year Can
Make You
Rich. DJI stocks that have an AI/200 score greater than 194, have an average gain of
74% over 21 months.
EXAMPLES - KO in 1989 or UK in 1994.
BUYING TACTICS
Tactic #1
Short-term traders should consider selling puts on the highest Accumulation
Stocks in the DJI-30 or SP-500 or NASDAQ-100 on every three or four day dip.
Then when the stock rebounds, which is expected because of the high accumulation's
cushion
of support, close out the put positions. Repeat this operation until you are put the
stock. Because
of the superb long-term track-record of buying the most accumulated DJI-30 stock or stock
in the
SP-500, the ownership of the stock will probably soon prove to be profitable. Only a CRASH
like
in 1987 would upset this plan.
TACTIC #2
Buy on MARGIN the top DJI-30 stock as soon as it becomes #1. Don't wait for the end of
the quarter.
Assume that other TIGER users and big institutions will push the stock up higher over the
short-term.
The average gain for a top AI/200 DJI stock over the first quarter was 5.99% from
1970-1994. Using
margin, this would have been about 12% a quarter or 48% a year.
Lengthy periods of Accumulation and Rising Uptrends even as the DJI is going
down for several months,
can provide you a great way to find explosive super stocks that are not in the DJI.
EXAMPLE AMGN 1990.
In Amgen's case doctors, we believe, were accumulating AMGN in 1990 before the FDA gave
approval
for two new block-buster drugs. They could se the efficacy of AMGN's drugs in clinical
trials.
TACTIC#3
After the DJI has fallen 10%, look for a PEERLESS MAJOR BUY signal. After that occurs,
buy the highest AI/200 or POWER-RANKED Stock in the NASDAQ-100 or among smaller companies,
provided its AI/200 score is above 190 and is above its 50-day mvg. avg.
After that, buy such stocks on temporary pullbacks to their rising 21-day mvg. avg. or
on breakouts
above their flat horizontal tops. TIGER B21 and B10 signals will help.
FLAT-TOPPED TRADING RANGES suggest simple profit-taking by traderswho have simply
placed their SELL ORDERS at the old highs. FLAT-TOPPED patterns are seldom major tops.
They usually are broken above with big price surge soon afterward. Flat-topped patterns
may
represent the signature of big-money accumulators trying to hold the stock back so that it
will not
look too good, too soon. If successful, yhey can buy more or stock, so long as the float
is not
exhausted. B5s and B10s signal breakouts. Check these to see if the patterns
that are being broken
out can be considered truly flat. If so, they are very bullish.
SHALLOW-PULLBACKS ARE BULLISH. If a stock does not retreat much below its rising
21-day moving avgerave and then begins another run to new highs, it signifies that
profit-taking
is easily being overcome by new aggressive buying. Tigers B19s
flag and signal such relentless
upward momentum.
TACTIC#4
Buy flat topped breakouts just after the breakout on a closing basis, if the stocks
show recent
high accumulation. The Accumulation may dip slightly negative territory if the stock's
relative strength
is good (ITRS >+.25) and aggressive buying is evident from an up-sloping OBV Line
(OBV%-Price%>-5.
These are BUY B5's and BUY B10's.
TACTIC#5
Find potential breakouts above flat topped patterns with good accompanying
internal strength using
the TIGER Spread Sheet Program using the 100-day Price Pct. column, clicking on the top of
the
column and then inspecting the stocks from 99 to 90 to see if they have flat tops. Those
with high
accumulation should then be bought by day-traders on their intra-day price breakouts. Note
that this
tactic takes time. I prefer to follow each night all the stocks that are at the top of the
POWER RANKING,
50-day Pct.Change Rankings and are in such lists as TOPREL.
Regarding breakout buying, do not use these tactics unless you are willing to work with
stops
8% or 10% below the point of breakout. Do not use them when the number of new lows on the
NYSE or NASDAQ exceeds the number of new highs. This approach is exciting. But it also
takes patience. Anticipating breakouts can be very costly. It is also frustrating. Many
stocks do
not price breakouts at convenient times. Often they seem to occur late on Friday
afternoons
or in after hours trading.
SMALL CAPS and THINNER STOCKS
Small stocks often can not easily be accumulated over a long period of
time. Their floats are too thin.
Sometimes, too, the breakthrough that permits a stock to go up significantly, occurs in a
way that too
many big institutions learn about it all at once. In these cases, it is not practical to
quietly accumulate
a big position in a stock while it is still sitting in a trading range. Big-smart-money
will show its hand
in these cases by increasing their activity quickly. This frequently causes the Tiger
Accumulation Bulge
to spike upwards. Accumulation Index Spikes above +.40 signify such buying. If at the same
time or
within a few months after, the small stock starts making a series of new highs, BUY it.
Tactic#6
BUY smaller technology and other exciting stocks when they show fresh BUY B12's or
B24's. These
major TIGER BUY signals also factor in relative strength. If we are going to buy an
unknown smaller
stock, we want to see it behaving much better than the overall-market as measured by the
DJI-30. Not
only does this factor give us some compensation for the added risk we are assuming, it
also suggests
that others will be attracted to the stock because of its superior price performance. Not
all of these
will work out. However, selling the poorer performers and adding to the best performing is
a well-tested
proven system.
Insider Distribution and
Selling
Believe the evidence of red distribution when you see. When the stocks then breaks
down
below key support, even in a bull market, expect it to decline further, usually by at
least
height of the price pattern above the point of breakdown. Disregard the automatic
Buys
just after a breakdown.
PERFORMANCE TRADING
When a stock's price looks cheap, it usually is no bargain - unless there has been a
bear
market in it for a year or more. Buying stocks just because they are down 50% from their
highs
is usually unwise. Either buy at long-term support or on price breakouts that occur as the
stock makes all-time highs. There's little reason to buy a stock that has a large supply
of stock
offered just overhead, and that's exactly what you'll be getting if you buy a stock that
has pulled
back 50% , or so, from its yearly high.
In an on-going bull market traders in growth stocks should look for stocks that are
making
new all-time highs. They should have doubled in the last year. They should have polite,
shallow
corrections. One of the best ways to find such stocks is using the concept of Relative
Strength.
This shows how the stock is doing against the DJI or other stocks.
Tiger Measures of Relative Strength:
RSQ (Relative Strength Quotient)
TIGER's Relative Strength Quotient is simply the stock's closing prices divided by the
DJI's
closing prices on the same day. This we call 'RSQ'. We then smooth this data with a 21-day
moving average. You will see how a trending stock will frequently make minor retreats in
which
its RSQ falls back just to its rising RSQ-21-day mvg. avg. When the RSQ is then deflected
back up from that rising mvg. avg. the stock usually starts another advance. When the RSQ
is decisively violated and the RSQ moving avg. turns down, the stock is apt to either
retreat
or go into a consolidation for at least a month or more. We believe that turns downward by
the 21-day mvg. avg. of RSQ are a good sell point in a stock that has made a big advance.
That is the basis of our Sell S23. You will later see that we have a full set of
I would be more cautious about using turns upward of the RSQ 21-day moving avg. as a
buy point.
To be taken as a buy the stock should show good accumulation and rising up-volume. Keep in
mind that it almost always takes rising volume to make a stock rise significantly."
ITRS (Intermediate-Term Relative Strength)
ITRS is TIGER's Intermediate-Term Relative Strength indicator. It shows how much better
or
worse the stock is doing than the DJI over the last 50 days. A reading above +.3 would
mean
the stock has outperformed the DJI by 30% or more over the 50 days. We have found that
new readings above +.3 are often associated with big advances when speculative sentiment
is generally strong. We believe that a stock that has its ITRS fall below -.1
probably should
be sold or avoided.
However, cross-overs by the ITRS back above the 0-line are bullish if the stock has not
recently
had a play. This indicator is best used with our Accumulation Index to gauge how tightly
the stock
is held. When the Accumulation Index has been consistently positive for a long time, a
stock that
has its ITRS cross above +.3 can often run a long ways.
You can find all the stocks that have just had their ITRS cross above +.3
by using the reserved symbols' list-name 'ITRSA30', or 'B12' for the stocks
that simultaneously
have an IP21 (current AI) greater than .40
Percent-Change Rankings: 21-day, 50-day, 100-day, 250-day:
TIGERs Pct-Change Ranking program shows you stocks ranked for their percent
change over
4 different time periods. Us the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day if the market has recently
reversed
and turned up or down for approximately 21, 50 or 100 days. In this way you can see the
stocks
that are first-out-of-the-gate. 200-days is preferred once a market
advance lasts longer than
six months. If there are 800 stocks, a Price Change rank of 800 would be tops in this
universe.
We believe that most On-Balance-Volume and Accumulation Index divergences
from price are usually reconciled with price following the TIGER internal strength
indices.
The TIGER Pct-Change Ranking program lets you quickly compare a stocks price change
ranking
with its OBV ranking and its IPA (similar to the Accumulation Index ranking). A
stocks OBV and
Accumulation Index (aka: IP21 rankings are also shown.
The TIGER ranking programs show you the difference in rank order between a stocks
price percent change and its OBV. They also show the rank difference
between a
stocks pct.change rank and its Accumulation Index.
Using the TIGER ranking program you can not only spot the stocks that are
first out of the gate, or strongest for a substantial period of time, you can also
readily spot those that have the highest ranked supporting internal strength.
These are the stocks that have the highest Across-the-board
strength.
Strong stocks are expected to stay strong. However, our rankings do not predict the
expected
order of subsequent performance. Work with the strongest of the strong.
HINTS
HINT: Cherry-pick. High-grade. Traders should buy the stocks that are
very highest ranked in pct. change, not the 30th or 50th, provided it is over, say,
$20, or better, $50.
HINT: Buy the highest pct. change ranked stocks that also have a positive
rank divergence, external price change rank minus internal (OBV or
Accumulation Index) rank. Work from the top downwards. Such a stock would be
tops in across-the-board strength.
HINT: Look at the top ten performing stocks and among them, those that are
above $50.
Then buy the highest AI/200 stock among them; or the stock that has the highest current
Accumulation Index (IP21); or that has the highest Up Pct. value. (Up Pct. shows the
percentage of days of the last 200 that the strong closes higher on the following days.)
HINT: Notice any industry whose stocks are appearing frequently at the top of
the list.
This is telling you there is a powerful trend in an industry as a whole. These last for
long periods
of time usually.
HINT: Use dips by the 5-day and 14-day Stochastic to buy the highest
Accumulation stocks,
those with an AI/200 score above 195.
HINT: Traders should make use of the short-term swings in volatile high techs and emply
the 5-day Stochastic if its optimized results are good.
Short-sellers: Short-term traders should look for stocks with very big negative
divergences
between their price action and their internal strength rankings. In my short-selling book,
I
suggested building a directory of stocks that are those that are most heavily shorted. I
suggested
taking al the NASDAQ stocks with more than 800,00 shares shorted. This will usually give
you a
good universe of stocks which professionals think are over-priced. Then closely inspect
for
timeliness those stocks that have the most bearish divergences. I call this low-grading.
POWER RANKINGS AND FUTURE PRICE PERFORMANCE
The nightly analysis TIGER programs produce a ranking of stocks based on
TIGERSOFTs
concept of power. Six factors are weighted:
1) The number of days of the last 60 that the Relative Strength Quotients 21 day-
mvg. avg.
is rising minus 30. I have given this a weight of 4.
2) IP21/200 or AI/200. This is the number of days in the last 200 that the Accumulation
Index
has been positive. I have given this a weight of 5.
3) OBV%-Pr% (how much is the 100 day OBV% above the 100 day price Pct.
I have given this a weight of 2.)
4) IPA%Pr% (how much is the 100 day IPA% above the 100 day price Pct. I have
given this
a weight of 1.)
5) If the stock is below its 50-day mvg. avg. subtract 50 from the Power Ranking.
6) If the stock is below its 30-wk mvg. avg. subtract 150 from the Power Ranking.
Studies done in 1988-1994 show that the top ranked stocks significantly outperform the
bottom ranked stocks, assuming that the volatility (Beta) is the same for the top and
bottom
ranked stocks. The best performance occurs 3-7 months after the ranking.
Note, when the market turns up after a long decline, there is a brief
period when the heavily
distributed stocks outperform the highest accumulated. Presumably, this is a function of
professional short-covering, which takes place because much higher general market prices
are
expected.
The POWER Rankings are intended to quickly tell you which stocks are
exceptionally strong
and which are exceptionally weak. Their best powers of prediction extend 3-7 months. They
do not attempt to judge the short term (under 1 month) or advise you when you should act
on their high or low rankings. This must be done using techniques derived from standard
technical analysis and various trigger systems notably trend-breaks,
Stochastic BUYs (B11)
and MACD (B11) signals. Automatic Buy signals on the highest ranked and those most
Bullish
are advised. In a bear market, the opposite is true.
Explosive Super Stocks
We all want to find stocks that double or triple or more in a year. The Tiger-Power-Ranker
offers you a great way to find these stocks. Extensive real-time use and back testing
teaches
us to look for stocks that show the following conditions:
1.) They have just made a new 12 month
high.
2.) They have an AI/200 score of 150 or higher. This shows longer term (blue)
Accumulation.
3.) Their current Accumulation value, called IP21 is above .37.
4.) The readings of the Accumulation, IP21 or vertical accumulation, spiked to
above .60 at
some point in the last 6 months or is doing so currently.
5.) Neither the current IP21 spike or the earlier spike in the last 3 months must have
been above .80.
6.) The current value of ITRS (Intermediate-Term Relative Strength) must be above .0574
but below
.5435. This indicator shows the difference between the chosen stocks percent gain
over 50 trading
days and the DJI-30s.
7) OBV should confirm the new high by making a high of its own.
Stocks meeting all these criteria have an average gain of 36% when holding for 12 months
and have averaged gains of more from 15% to 65% a year, since 1990, when simply held for a
12 month period. Of course, better gains will usually come when the general market is
rising,
as signaled by Peerless major Buys. Multiple Sell S9s and a breakdown below major support
should also be heeded. Much better returns than this are gotten by adding to positions
that are
up more than 12% after the first month or 21-trading days. Selling the stocks in this list
that
are down after a month, if market conditions have been good, and buying more of the best
performing stocks is highly recommended. The study done here shows the average gain for
such a stock from the 21st trading day to the 252nd trading day (1 year) is 52.2%. There
were
105 such cases between 1990 and 2006, so these results are viewed as highly significant.
More details will be found on www.tigsoft.com.
How can these stocks be found? TigerSoft
will publish them each week in the weekly Elite report
($575/year) and keep track of all such positions currently held. These are called the
Tiger Super
Stocks. Most of them will be in the NEWHIGH data list we provide Tiger
data customers.
They are best found by examining all the stocks making new highs or that have a Buy B24.
You can see the key values for the current IP21 and AI/200 by viewing going to the
Tiger Page + Tiger Selections (at top) + Tiger Groups and then choosing new highs or Buy
B24s.
The parameters set out above constitute a sweet spot, an ideal zone. Very good
gains are had by finding stocks that come very close to these parameters. Many are thin,
low-priced stocks, and the high, average gains come about because of some very big
gainers,
more than 200% a year. So, buy a batch of them. Diversify. Then hold tightly for a year,
unless Peerless gives multiple, major Sells Of course, when a hyperbolic up-trend develops
and you have a gain of, say, 300% or more you may choose to see on a violation of either
a 50-day moving average or you may want to use a stop sell on a close below the 10-day
moving average.