NEW HOTLINE 12-16-2022 Tiger Software (C) 2022
.
http://www.tigersoftware.com/DANTE43/INDEX.htm
EMAIL us at either wm_tigersoft@yahoo.com or william_schmidt@hotmail.com
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- IMPORTANT -
Look for an email from us this Saturday giving the new
HL address
to start on Sunday.
It's current price is now $440 for a year. But due to
our own rent just now being raised 10% in 2023, or up 25%
in three years, I will have no choice but to raise the HL price
to $480 next year. I am sorry to have to do this. To renew
please send a check to William Schmidt, 5834 Kantor STREET,
San Diego, CA 92122. If you want to renew now for $440,
before next year, send a check for $440.
Checks are desired, please. Thanks for understanding. The
banks are declining too many cards even when the card numbers
we enter are correct. The Data Page for a year is still $220. The
Hotline, Data Page and Software updates will rise to $695 for a year.
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Previous Hotlines: www.tigersoftware.com/5HLM/INDEX.htm
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Friday
- 5:50 AM - Futures: DJI -384 NASDAQ
-78 Data Used: 12/15/2022
12/15/2022 DJIA 33202.22 -764.13 -2.25% Nasdaq 10810.53 -360.36 -3.23% S&P 500 3895.75 -99.57 -2.49% New Highs 38 + 84 = 118 New Lows 126 +376 = 502 |
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Professional selling is too pronounced to buy
yet. Stay hedged with Bearish MINCPs. The 20% rally that the Professionals rigged on low volume in October and November is now being giving up without a fight. The trend was the bull's friend. But once broken, the Professionals' computerized buy programs have been put in reverse. Now the Closing Power trends are clearly down for DIA, NASDAQ, SPY, QQQ and FAS (financials) It remains to be seen if December's normally bullish seasonality will be strong enough to bring a reversal back up. Today the DJI fell almost to its its 3% lower band. This generated a Peerless Buy B2. But it is seasonally determined. Had a similar decline occurred in November, there would have been no Buy B2. In three days the DJI has fallen from its 3% upper band (actually just below that level) to almost its 3% lower band. This is a remarkably quick decline. Such sudden drops from the upper 3% to the lower 3% band have been seen 22 times in the past since late 1928. In 15 cases, more than 2/3 of the time, a bottom was soon reached and the DJI bounced back to its 2.5% upper band, at least. But in 7 cases, the DJI kept failling. The odds of a profitable recovery are only 60% if we look at the five instances since the year 2000. There were 3 bouce-backs in 2000, but there were much deeper declines in these rapid sell-offs to the lower band in November 2008 and in December 2018 (when the FED was busy raising rates until President Trump stopped the tightening just before Christmas. If we compare the two Presidents' styles, I would have to say Biden, being the more cautious, will not challenge the FED. So, we have to very careful. The best way to learn if and when the FED will be stepping back from its declared plan to raise rates above 5% in 2023, is for us to watch our Closing Powers, for the big ETFs and for FAS and GS, in particular. Right now they are in clear down-trends. Professionals do not expect any FED moderation even if a recession results. I've talked about the bearish pressure especially in beaten-down big techs like TSLA, AMZN and GOOG. But the same pressures are at work in AAPL, too. This force may not ease up until the new year actually starts. This explains why the QQQ and NASDAQ are under-perfoming the DJI by more than 10% over the last 50-trading days and are close to making new yearly lows. The price breakdowns below recent flat support generated TigerSoft S5 Sells in the NASDAQ and NYSE. The trend-breaks, top-formations, Closing Power trend-breaks and consolidation pattern breakdowns after a rise for two months now looks a lot like what happend in August. We will be lucky if the DJI pulls back only 50% of its October-November gain, it seems. So, we need to see signs that Professionals are changing their minds again. We need to see the Closing Powers hook back up. I would wait to buy until next week when the December seasonality is most apt to works its magic on the market. |
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Charts - 12/14/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new - COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81215.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-15/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-15/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 - Breadth Statistics12/15/2022 DJIA 33202.22 -764.13 -2.25% Nasdaq 10810.53 -360.36 -3.23% S&P 500 3895.75 -99.57 -2.49% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,251 3,232 3,265 Advances 601 1,305 1,740 Declines 2,537 1,791 1,378 Unchanged 113 136 147 New highs 38 46 49 New lows 126 92 71 Adv. volume* 128,110,458 355,745,190 525,424,510 Decl. volume* 894,275,773 652,701,600 296,374,694 Total volume* 1,027,101,337 1,048,650,485 832,537,532 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.46 1.23 0.73 Block trades* 4,737 5,082 4,431 Adv. volume 620,626,713 1,591,863,489 2,508,355,349 Decl. volume 3,827,096,219 2,688,945,274 1,451,504,672 Total volume 4,493,905,168 4,472,347,259 4,006,900,432 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,888 4,848 4,869 Advances 1,223 1,897 2,661 Declines 3,419 2,695 1,926 Unchanged 246 256 282 New highs 84 99 111 New lows 376 246 254 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.70 0.86 0.80 Block trades 41,798 38,770 26,060 Adv. volume 1,866,445,174 2,444,828,872 2,683,696,562 Decl. volume 3,636,585,843 2,988,509,212 1,546,354,819 Total volume 5,536,073,488 5,485,155,915 4,281,804,122 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/15/2022 --- Bullish = 0 Bearish = 4 DBO,CPER, CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX ================================================================================================ DIA 332.8 -7.42 335.37 -83.4% ------- RED .088 ----- ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10810.53 -360.36 11004.62 -121.9% Bearish RED -.047 -.129 -.176 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 389.63 -9.77 393.28 -83% Bearish RED .042 -.066 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 276.89 -9.62 282.04 -122% Bearish RED -.014 -.117 -.131 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 446.19 -10.37 451.13 -108.7% Bearish RED -.028 -.055 -.083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 175.68 -4.51 178.62 -143.1% Bearish RED -.119 -.094 -.213 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.6 -4.43 75.56 -300.4% Bearish RED .076 .022 .098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 7.56 -.71 8.3 -702.2% Bearish RED .093 -.063 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 11.4 -1.6 12.32 -472.5% Bearish RED -.004 -.101 -.105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 24.92 -3.13 26.08 -307.8% ------- RED .051 -.142 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 134.24 -2.49 133.01 -61% ------- RED .028 -.007 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 165.35 -2.75 167.06 -33.5% Bearish RED -.05 -.064 -.114 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 14.56 -.28 14.17 155.8% Bearish RED -.076 -.229 -.305 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 290.62 -2.08 270.88 126.2% Bearish BLUE .046 .085 .131 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.79 -.51 23.23 -137.7% Bearish RED -.229 -.033 -.262 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 80.24 -2.49 78.62 71.7% ------- RED -.073 -.033 -.106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.26 .26 28.36 -7.1% Bullish BLUE -.029 -.153 -.182 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.03 .06 25.74 67.6% Bullish BLUE -.189 -.146 -.335 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.64 .05 7.45 52.9% Bearish ---- -.246 -.26 -.506 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 45.58 -3.48 48.3 -356.8% Bearish RED -.019 -.135 -.154 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/15/22 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846 .923 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 BEVERAGE .857 .857 1 .928 1 1 BONDFUND .85 .885 .885 .885 .873 .896 INFRA .848 .878 .878 .878 .878 .878 DOWJONES .833 .866 .866 .866 .833 .866 ===== UTILITY .815 .815 .815 .815 .842 .868 ETFS .781 .836 .854 .854 .854 .836 SP-100 .755 .822 .822 .8 .755 .777 SOLAR .75 .687 .625 .5 .437 .437 GOLD .739 .826 .869 .804 .826 .847 INSURANC .72 .76 .8 .76 .72 .8 MILITARY .692 .73 .73 .807 .73 .73 SP500 .692 .779 .793 .8 .759 .771 ===== SEMI .684 .768 .768 .757 .736 .768 CHINA .68 .68 .66 .62 .64 .64 HIGHPRIC .672 .814 .818 .793 .745 .775 REIT .669 .7 .746 .7 .676 .692 COAL .666 .5 .666 .666 .5 .5 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .833 GREEN .666 .666 .666 .611 .555 .555 ELECTRON .661 .729 .736 .729 .714 .736 FIDSTKS .656 .757 .763 .775 .692 .751 CHEM .652 .739 .739 .717 .76 .782 INDEXES .648 .772 .8 .767 .718 .751 RUS-1000 .628 .725 .741 .729 .685 .703 NASD-100 .6 .71 .75 .74 .68 .74 ===== INDMATER .597 .708 .694 .694 .694 .708 GAMING .578 .578 .631 .684 .578 .631 TRANSP .578 .684 .684 .789 .684 .684 BIGBANKS .571 .714 .714 .714 .571 .571 COMODITY .564 .589 .589 .589 .589 .589 RETAIL .553 .659 .638 .638 .659 .723 COMPUTER .55 .65 .65 .65 .6 .6 AUTO .547 .641 .698 .679 .679 .698 JETS .538 .692 .692 .769 .692 .692 SOFTWARE .535 .642 .66 .589 .571 .607 NIFTY .522 .704 .772 .727 .613 .704 =================================================================================================== HACKERS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 =================================================================================================== FOOD .489 .53 .53 .51 .51 .51 FINANCE .475 .537 .625 .662 .662 .612 OILGAS .457 .457 .504 .438 .361 .428 HOSPITAL .428 .5 .5 .428 .357 .428 BIOTECH .396 .438 .435 .418 .393 .424 GUNS .357 .642 .714 .714 .714 .714 LOWPRICE .31 .313 .324 .313 .291 .294 MARIJUAN .3 .4 .5 .6 .5 .6 REGBANKS .24 .36 .48 .56 .48 .48 |
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Thursday
- 6:00 AM - Futures: DJI -390 NASDAQ
-203 Data Used: 12/14/2022
12/14/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33966.35 -142.29 -0.42% S&P 500 3995.32 -24.33 -0.61% Nasdaq 11170.89 -85.93 -0.7% |
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Watch the Closing Powers now. Professionals pumped the market up, now they are taking it down using selling at the openings, too. That the market would sell off after such classicly bearish red "popsicles" and failures to surpass the various resistance points in the DJI, SPY, NASDAQ and QQQ should not come as a surpise. Especially, when FED is trying to scare the market by talking about 5% rates at some point next year. But the amount of Professional selling as evidenced by the falling Closing Powers shown in almost all the biggest companies' stocks will be of concern if it continues, especially with the DJI down 1%+ already in the futures market. The bullish seasonality in the second half of December should produce a Buy B13 to start a Santa Claus rally next week. As reliable as they are, I would still want to see the Closing Powers reverse after a successful test of the recent lows. Let's also see if we can't get a Red Buy signal from SPY's 5-day stochastic. The tax loss selling in the tech giants, TSLA, AMZN and GOOG, is apt to be merciless as the year comes to an end. Also bearish for now are the falling Closing Powers for the financials' ETF, FAS along with GS and JPM in the DJI-30. I expect MSFT, HD and NVDA to be able to hold up well unless the DJI plunges below its support at 33440. The weakest bearish MINCPs are apt to remain weak until the end of the year. Stay short some of these. |
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Charts - 12/14/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new - COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81214.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-14/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-14/BEARISH.htm |
"3 locomotives of higher prices" - HD, MSFT and NVDA |
weak AAPL - biggest QQQ and SPY component |
Weak high tech giants: TSLA, AMZN, GOOG |
Biggest DJI component - UNH |
Table 1 - Breadth Statistics 12/14/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33966.35 -142.29 -0.42% S&P 500 3995.32 -24.33 -0.61% Nasdaq 11170.89 -85.93 -0.7% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,232 3,288 3,264 Advances 1,305 2,227 1,512 Declines 1,791 936 1,616 Unchanged 136 125 136 New highs 46 91 38 New lows 92 56 102 Adv. volume* 355,745,190 740,686,688 332,827,500 Decl. volume* 652,701,600 415,751,697 533,382,964 Total volume* 1,048,650,485 1,177,322,775 885,453,002 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.23 1.55 1.71 Block trades* 5,082 5,171 4,424 Adv. volume 1,591,863,489 3,010,933,099 1,414,305,331 Decl. volume 2,688,945,274 1,967,367,902 2,581,305,974 Total volume 4,472,347,259 5,079,364,895 4,118,053,025 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,848 4,911 4,820 Advances 1,897 2,781 1,966 Declines 2,695 1,874 2,584 Unchanged 256 256 270 New highs 99 123 70 New lows 246 247 326 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.86 0.74 1.22 Block trades 38,770 39,590 27,746 Adv. volume 2,444,828,872 4,025,080,301 1,648,690,343 Decl. volume 2,988,509,212 1,995,617,169 2,633,943,698 Total volume 5,485,155,915 6,126,895,639 4,343,866,6764,713,331,628 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/14/2022 --- Bullish = 0 Bearish = 4 DBO, UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX ======================================================================================================= DIA 340.22 -1.59 338.46 55.8% ------- RED .103 ---- ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11170.89 -85.92 11082 95.7% Bearish RED -.009 -.123 -.132 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 399.4 -2.57 396.24 78.6% ------- RED .081 -.066 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 286.51 -2.14 283.85 105.2% Bearish RED .021 -.107 -.086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 456.56 -2.14 456.1 44.3% Bearish RED .008 -.06 -.052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 180.19 -1.19 180.84 18% Bearish RED -.083 -.099 -.182 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 76.03 -3.09 76.23 11.7% Bearish RED .073 .041 .114 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.27 -.01 8.74 -177.3% Bearish ---- .061 -.015 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 13 -.63 12.62 513.8% ------- RED .037 .055 .092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 28.05 -.7 26.61 492.1% ------- RED .07 -.033 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 136.73 .73 135.89 96.6% ------- BLUE .041 -.008 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 168.1 -.41 166.47 53.1% Bearish RED .01 -.076 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 14.84 .19 14.11 188.3% Bearish BLUE -.06 -.216 -.276 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 292.7 -1.71 283.43 179.8% Bearish RED .068 .123 .191 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.3 .06 23.43 8.6% Bearish ---- -.186 -.017 -.203 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 82.73 1.58 79.09 269% ------- BLUE -.034 -.067 -.101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28 -.13 28.3 -68.9% Bullish RED -.08 -.176 -.256 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 25.97 .02 25.68 46.5% Bullish BLUE -.168 -.169 -.337 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.59 -.01 7.56 6.6% Bearish ---- -.214 -.283 -.497 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 49.06 .98 49.02 459.5% ------- BLUE .022 -.062 -.04 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/14/22 Bullish = 41 Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .846 .923 .923 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 BONDFUND .885 .885 .885 .873 .896 .908 INFRA .878 .878 .878 .878 .878 .878 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .833 .866 .866 ===== BEVERAGE .857 1 .928 1 1 1 ETFS .836 .854 .854 .854 .854 .854 GOLD .826 .869 .804 .826 .847 .913 SP-100 .822 .822 .8 .755 .788 .777 UTILITY .815 .815 .815 .842 .868 .815 HIGHPRIC .814 .818 .793 .745 .771 .698 SP500 .779 .793 .8 .755 .773 .733 ====== INDEXES .772 .8 .767 .718 .745 .718 SEMI .768 .768 .757 .736 .747 .694 INSURANC .76 .8 .76 .72 .76 .76 FIDSTKS .757 .763 .775 .692 .739 .71 CHEM .739 .739 .739 .739 .804 .739 MILITARY .73 .73 .807 .73 .73 .73 ELECTRON .729 .736 .729 .714 .714 .691 RUS-1000 .725 .741 .729 .685 .7 .658 ===== BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .571 .571 .571 NASD-100 .71 .75 .74 .68 .74 .68 ===== INDMATER .708 .694 .694 .694 .694 .736 NIFTY .704 .772 .727 .613 .704 .568 REIT .7 .738 .707 .684 .669 .638 JETS .692 .692 .769 .692 .692 .769 SOLAR .687 .625 .5 .437 .437 .437 TRANSP .684 .684 .789 .684 .684 .736 CHINA .68 .66 .62 .64 .64 .58 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 GREEN .666 .666 .611 .555 .555 .5 RETAIL .659 .638 .638 .659 .723 .702 COMPUTER .65 .65 .65 .6 .6 .6 GUNS .642 .714 .714 .714 .714 .642 SOFTWARE .642 .678 .589 .571 .607 .553 AUTO .641 .698 .679 .679 .716 .698 COMODITY .589 .589 .564 .589 .589 .589 GAMING .578 .631 .631 .631 .631 .631 FINANCE .537 .625 .662 .65 .6 .6 FOOD .53 .53 .489 .51 .51 .51 ======================================================================================== COAL .5 .666 .666 .5 .5 .5 HACKERS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .437 HOSPITAL .5 .5 .428 .357 .428 .428 =============================================================================================== OILGAS .457 .504 .438 .361 .438 .438 BIOTECH .438 .432 .421 .393 .421 .399 MARIJUAN .4 .5 .6 .5 .6 .7 REGBANKS .36 .48 .56 .48 .48 .52 LOWPRICE .313 .327 .316 .291 .294 .285 |
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Wednesday
- 6:00 AM - Futures: DJI -19 NASDAQ
-16 Data Used: 12/13/2022
12/13/2022 DJIA 34108.64 103.60 +0.30% S&P 500 4019.65 29.09 +0.73% Nasdaq 11256.81 113.08 +1.01% |
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We don't
often see an eight hundred point reversal down from the opening. But then we seldom see all the major market indexes and ETFs simultanously hitting so many reistance points, namely price down-trends, flat overhead resistance and falling 200-day moving averages in the case of the SP-500 and NYSE. The reversal also marked a buying climax, in that the monthly CPI finally fell a little because of the big drop in oil and gasoline prices and this was obviosly favorable to getting the FED to pause in its rate hikes or, at least slow them down. But the fall in the CPI was also not unexpected. Just watching the gas prices at the pump would have alerted anyone to this change. And so, many professionals took profits and our candle-stick charts show various forms of red popsicles and red rolling pins, etc. Seasonality as I have said is quite bullish after the 15th of December. Tomorrow expect the FED to sound tough in their fight against inflation, but refuse to commit to more rate hikes after December's until February or March. This will amount to a bullish pause. But the "tough talk" should take the DJI back down to the recent support, from which a Santa Claus rally seems most likely. It's true that UNH, the most heavily weighted stock in DJI-30, fell today and saw its CLosing Power uptrend broken. And it's true that Tesla, a big part of the QQQ and SPY, fell to confirmed new lows. But it's also true that the three "locomotives" of the advance now, HD, NVDA and MSFT held onto good gains today. They should be held. Traders looking for ideas beyond shorting the Bearish MINCPs, should look at our stock charts for stocks showing optimized 5-day stochastic buys and sells that have gained more than 100% this past year. See how UCO and GOOG meet this criteria. The Buy B21 and the bullish seasonality should kick in a week again. ESP subscribers can get the Buy B21 now from the Tiger ESP page. |
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Charts - 12/13/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new - COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81213.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-13/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-13/BEARISH.htm |
DJIA and DIA |
SP-500 and SPY |
NASDAQ
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Table 1 - Breadth Statistics12/13/2022 DJIA 34108.64 103.60 +0.30% S&P 500 4019.65 29.09 +0.73% Nasdaq 11256.81 113.08 +1.01% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,288 3,265 3,275 Advances 2,227 2,006 906 Declines 936 1,135 2,231 Unchanged 125 124 138 New highs 91 48 37 New lows 56 90 114 Adv. volume* 740,686,688 650,506,834 281,158,629 Decl. volume* 415,751,697 188,323,349 676,801,258 Total volume* 1,177,322,775 849,255,435 969,965,743 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.55 0.66 0.88 Block trades* 5,171 4,476 4,881 Adv. volume 3,010,933,099 2,793,564,822 1,360,348,770 Decl. volume 1,967,367,902 1,045,988,830 2,942,807,100 Total volume 5,079,364,895 3,904,136,311 4,368,388,636 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,911 4,834 4,894 Advances 2,781 2,679 1,382 Declines 1,874 1,876 3,235 Unchanged 256 279 277 New highs 123 87 68 New lows 247 294 312 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.74 0.54 1.73 Block trades 39,590 30,573 34,183 Adv. volume 4,025,080,301 3,453,719,035 926,111,532 Decl. volume 1,995,617,169 1,316,346,738 3,754,332,752 Total volume 6,126,895,639 4,829,996,357 4,713,331,628 |
Table 2Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/13/2022 --- Bullish = 1 SOXL, Bearish = 4 DBO, UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX ======================================================================================================= DIA 341.81 1.19 336.44 79.3% ------- RED .086 ---- ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11256.81 113.07 10958.55 109.6% Bearish RED -.026 -.119 -.145 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 401.97 3.02 393.16 103% ------- RED .064 -.063 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 288.65 3.07 280.53 123.3% ------- RED .002 -.104 -.102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 458.7 2.67 452.53 62% Bearish RED -.036 -.05 -.086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 181.38 .66 179.54 36.4% Bearish RED -.114 -.088 -.202 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 79.12 .75 75.85 137.7% Bearish RED .045 .189 .234 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.28 -.14 8.57 -176% Bearish RED .017 .097 .114 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 13.63 .65 11.7 778.4% ------- RED .017 .246 .263 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 28.75 .97 25.4 562.1% ------- RED .07 .069 .139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 136 1.94 134.13 102.6% ------- RED -.026 -.019 -.045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 168.51 2.83 166.33 110.5% Bearish RED .027 -.096 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 14.65 .2 14.3 7% Bearish BLUE -.092 -.233 -.325 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 294.41 11.83 282.53 78.6% Bearish BLUE .033 .142 .175 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.24 .21 23.26 38.8% Bearish RED -.191 -.028 -.219 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 81.15 1.69 78.46 130.5% ------- RED -.044 -.083 -.127 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.13 -.25 28.39 -61.7% Bullish BLUE -.046 -.222 -.268 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 25.95 -.11 25.73 77.7% ------ RED -.208 -.203 -.411 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.6 -.04 7.58 126.2% Bearish RED -.222 -.327 -.549 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 48.08 1.51 44.71 33.8% ------- RED -.003 .006 .003 |
Table 3RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/13/22 Bullish = 43 Bearish = 3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 .928 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .846 .923 .923 .923 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 BONDFUND .885 .885 .873 .896 .908 .885 INFRA .878 .878 .878 .878 .878 .878 GOLD .869 .804 .826 .847 .913 .826 DOWJONES .866 .866 .833 .866 .866 .866 ETFS .854 .854 .854 .854 .872 .854 SP-100 .822 .8 .755 .788 .777 .777 HIGHPRIC .818 .793 .745 .771 .693 .689 UTILITY .815 .815 .842 .868 .815 .815 INDEXES .8 .767 .718 .745 .718 .751 INSURANC .8 .76 .72 .76 .76 .76 SP500 .793 .8 .755 .769 .735 .749 GUNS .785 .785 .642 .642 .571 .714 NIFTY .772 .727 .613 .704 .568 .59 SEMI .768 .757 .736 .747 .673 .694 FIDSTKS .763 .775 .692 .739 .71 .721 NASD-100 .75 .74 .68 .74 .68 .69 RUS-1000 .741 .729 .685 .7 .657 .663 CHEM .739 .739 .76 .782 .76 .76 REIT .738 .7 .692 .676 .63 .615 ELECTRON .736 .729 .714 .714 .676 .684 MILITARY .73 .807 .73 .73 .73 .769 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .571 .571 .571 .571 AUTO .698 .679 .679 .716 .698 .735 INDMATER .694 .694 .694 .694 .736 .736 JETS .692 .769 .692 .692 .769 .769 TRANSP .684 .789 .684 .684 .736 .736 SOFTWARE .678 .607 .571 .607 .553 .535 COAL .666 .666 .5 .5 .5 .5 EDU .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 .833 GREEN .666 .611 .555 .555 .5 .555 CHINA .66 .62 .64 .64 .58 .6 COMPUTER .65 .65 .6 .6 .6 .6 RETAIL .638 .638 .659 .723 .702 .68 GAMING .631 .631 .578 .684 .631 .631 FINANCE .625 .662 .65 .587 .6 .662 SOLAR .625 .5 .437 .437 .437 .437 COMODITY .589 .564 .564 .589 .589 .589 FOOD .53 .489 .489 .51 .51 .51 OILGAS .504 .438 .361 .438 .438 .466 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS .5 .5 .5 .5 .437 .437 HOSPITAL .5 .428 .357 .428 .428 .428 MARIJUAN .5 .6 .5 .6 .6 .9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGBANKS .48 .56 .48 .48 .52 .56 BIOTECH .432 .418 .396 .421 .391 .432 LOWPRICE .327 .319 .294 .294 .282 .291 |
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Tuesday -
6:00 AM - Futures:
DJI +751 NASDAQ+453 Data
Used: 12/12/2022
12/12/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 34005.04 528.58 +1.58% Nasdaq 11143.74 139.12 +1.26% S&P 500 3990.56 56.18 +1.43% |
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The CPI
numbers released today are clearly expected to show that the rate of inflation is cooling off in the key area of oil prices. That expectation is again lifting prices, especially in the big indexes and general market ETFs, DIA, SPY and QQQ. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - NOVEMBER 2022 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, more than offsetting decreases in energy indexes. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index also rising 0.5 percent. The energy index decreased 1.6 percent over the month as the gasoline index, the natural gas index, and the electricity index all declined.
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Charts - 12/12/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81212.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-12/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-12/BEARISH.htm |
DJI - New Buy B21 despite lagging A/D Line. Bullish
seasonality is more important. B21 here uses concept of October oftenbeing the killer of bear markets. |
DIA - Closing Power has turned up at its rising 21-dma. DJI
must keep rising to avoid the appearance of forming a head/shoulders top. |
Highest Priced and Most Heavily Weighted Stocks in DJI-30 |
UNH - 21-dma of Closing Power is falling. |
GS - Closing Power hooked back up, but its 21-dma is still falling. |
HD - Bullish rising Closing Power. Approaching 330 resistance. |
SP-500 - SPY Bullish Red BUY. SPY - Rising 21-dma of Closing Power hooked back up. |
NASDAQ - Very weak OBV should limit rallies. |
QQQ - Rising 21-dma of Closing Power has hooked back up. Very low Relative Strength: ITRS= -.116 |
Five Biggest holdings of QQQ Apple Inc. Allocation: 12.88% Microsoft Corp. Allocation: 10.36% GOOGLE 6.41% Alphabet Inc Class C. Allocation: 3.25% and Alphabet Inc Class A. Allocation: 3.16% Amazon.com Inc. Allocation: 5.17% NVIDIA Corp. Allocation: 3.38% |
AAPL Rising 21-dma of Closing Power has hooked back up. Very low Relative Strength: ITRS= -.139 Falling 5-day ma and 65-dma. |
MSFT - Rising 21-dma of Closing Power has hooked back up |
GOOG |
AMZN - Both Opening and Closing Power are falling. - Very weak ITRS |
NVDA - Uptrend of Closing Power is bullishly accelerating. |
Table 1 - Breadth Statistics12/12/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 34005.04 528.58 1.58% Nasdaq 11143.74 139.12 1.26% S&P 500 3990.56 56.18 1.43% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,265 3,259 3,304 Advances 2,006 926 480 Declines 1,135 2,218 2,693 Unchanged 124 115 131 New highs 48 43 62 New lows 90 63 55 Adv. volume* 650,506,834 290,671,849 63,519,747 Decl. volume* 188,323,349 542,366,743 835,905,734 Total volume* 849,255,435 856,195,382 904,232,630 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.66 0.74 2.25 Block trades* 4,476 4,285 5,007 Adv. volume 2,793,564,822 1,367,914,713 311,650,361 Decl. volume 1,045,988,830 2,439,327,766 3,937,094,460 Total volume 3,904,136,311 3,888,263,390 4,280,824,911 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,834 4,810 4,884 Advances 2,679 1,654 1,189 Declines 1,876 2,863 3,468 Unchanged 279 293 227 New highs 87 68 108 New lows 294 248 168 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.54 0.90 0.91 Block trades 30,573 26,463 31,114 Adv. volume 3,453,719,035 1,649,364,351 1,223,770,374 Decl. volume 1,316,346,738 2,578,310,808 3,247,477,472 Total volume 4,829,996,357 4,337,449,692 4,510,035,402 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/12/2022 --- Bullish = 4 FAS, RETL, SOXL, TECL Bearish = 4 DBO, UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX ======================================================================================================= DIA 340.62 5.25 336.46 8.7% ------- BLUE .164 --- ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11143.74 139.12 11014.89 -43.5% ------- BLUE .045 -.132 -.087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 398.95 5.67 393.83 -8.1% ------- BLUE .146 -.069 .077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 285.58 3.54 281.68 -36.4% ------- BLUE .096 -.117 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 456.03 4.9 453.07 -26.5% ------- BLUE -.021 -.05 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 180.72 2.1 180.07 -59.6% Bearish BLUE -.088 -.09 -.178 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 78.37 2.81 77.01 -42.4% Bearish BLUE .099 .26 .359 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.42 .12 8.58 -215.2% ------- BLUE .102 .186 .288 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.98 .66 11.72 160% ------- BLUE .115 .279 .394 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 27.78 1.7 25.79 39.9% Bullish BLUE .184 .108 .292 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 134.06 1.05 133.25 -53.2% ------- BLUE .045 -.039 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 165.68 -1.38 164.84 38.9% ------- RED .104 -.114 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 14.45 .28 14.63 -252.1% Bearish BLUE -.09 -.234 -.324 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 282.58 11.7 289.98 -188.9% Bearish BLUE -.007 .152 .145 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.03 -.2 23.06 34.5% ------- ---- -.008 -.059 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 79.46 .84 79.09 -153.6% ------- BLUE -.09 -.106 -.196 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.38 .02 28.48 -14.1% ------- ---- -.203 -.244 -.447 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.06 .32 25.55 79.9% Bullish BLUE -.167 -.222 -.389 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.64 .19 7.41 80% Bearish BLUE -.164 -.351 -.515 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 46.57 -1.73 47.76 59.4% ------- RED .042 -.04 .002 |
TABLE 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/12/22 Bullish = 42 Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 BEVERAGE .928 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 BONDFUND .885 .873 .896 .908 .885 .896 INFRA .878 .878 .878 .878 .878 .909 DOWJONES .866 .833 .866 .866 .866 .866 ===== ETFS .854 .854 .854 .872 .872 .854 UTILITY .815 .842 .868 .815 .815 .736 MILITARY .807 .73 .73 .73 .769 .807 GOLD .804 .826 .847 .913 .826 .847 SP-100 .8 .755 .788 .777 .777 .8 SP500 .8 .755 .769 .731 .751 .787 ===== HIGHPRIC .793 .745 .771 .693 .689 .767 TRANSP .789 .684 .684 .736 .789 .842 FIDSTKS .775 .692 .739 .71 .727 .775 GUNS .769 .769 .769 .692 .769 .769 JETS .769 .692 .692 .769 .769 .769 INDEXES .767 .718 .745 .718 .751 .789 INSURANC .76 .72 .76 .76 .76 .72 SEMI .757 .736 .747 .673 .684 .81 NASD-100 .74 .68 .74 .68 .7 .76 ===== CHEM .739 .76 .804 .739 .782 .782 ELECTRON .729 .714 .714 .676 .676 .751 RUS-1000 .729 .685 .7 .657 .664 .728 ===== NIFTY .727 .613 .704 .568 .59 .659 BIGBANKS .714 .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 REIT .7 .684 .684 .638 .592 .684 INDMATER .694 .694 .694 .736 .736 .763 AUTO .679 .679 .716 .698 .735 .735 COAL .666 .5 .5 .5 .5 .666 EDU .666 .666 .833 .833 .833 .833 FINANCE .662 .65 .587 .587 .662 .7 COMPUTER .65 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 RETAIL .638 .659 .723 .702 .68 .68 GAMING .631 .578 .631 .684 .631 .631 CHINA .62 .64 .64 .58 .6 .6 GREEN .611 .555 .555 .5 .555 .722 SOFTWARE .607 .589 .607 .553 .535 .553 MARIJUAN .6 .5 .6 .6 .9 1 COMODITY .564 .564 .564 .589 .589 .589 REGBANKS .56 .48 .48 .52 .56 .68 ============================================================================================ HACKERS .5 .5 .5 .437 .437 .5 SOLAR .5 .437 .437 .437 .437 .812 ============================================================================================ FOOD .489 .489 .489 .51 .51 .51 OILGAS .438 .361 .438 .438 .466 .59 HOSPITAL .428 .357 .428 .428 .428 .571 BIOTECH .418 .393 .424 .391 .429 .49 LOWPRICE .319 .296 .296 .282 .291 .313 |
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Monday -
6:15 AM - Futures:
DJI +54 NASDAQ+19 Data Used: 12/9/2022
12/9/2022 DJIA 33476.46 -305.02 -0.90% S&P 500 3934.38 -29.13 -0.73% Nasdaq 11004.62 -77.39 -0.70% |
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Seasonality still suggests that we should wait until after mid-December to buy most stocks again when the odds of a DJI rally rise to 100% over the following four weeks and again reach 100% over the next 6 months. Seasonality gave us the new Buy B21 in early November, too. That could still allow a decline for the DJI so that it achieves a 50% retracement of its rally since the beginning of October. But the DJI seems to refuse to break below its near-term support. We have to reckon with this fact. Weakness later today could bring some breakdowns in stocks holding just above their support levels. There are quite a few, but most also show positive IP21 readings and are above their 65-dma. Normally, that would mean any breakdown would be false. And such may be the case in the bullish month of December now, but a positive IP21 (Accum. Index) did not protect DIA, SPY or QQQ from serious declines after price breakdowns early in 2022. I would take any such breakdowns seriously even now. The new Buy B21, like other types of Buy B21s, occurred because of the unusual strength in October, a month known for seeing the end of bear markets. Presumably, the next six months are the most bullish in the four-year Presidential cycle because politicians turn to finding ways to boost the economy in preparation for the key Presidential Election year when votes and campaign contributions are so important. Tell that to the FED! With inflation high, the pressure has been on Powell and his friends at the FOMC to slow down the economy as a way to curb runaway prices. The oil stocks' and big bank stocks' declines suggests that the economy is weakening. But not to the point where there is a recession or a bear market, at least, among the DJI-30 stocks which are the most resilient and able to handle inflation and higher interest rates. Thus, the DJI is holding up above a price support only 9% below its peak. Table 1 still warns us that there are 3x more new lows than new highs among all NYSE and NASDAQ stocks. So, in buying now and until year end, because of tax loss selling, we must avoid the weakest stocks. But the bullish MAXCPs are not impressive right now. So, what to do? Selling short the weakest bearish MINCPS is one answer. Buying gold stocks I have also suggested. But with the DJI, QQQ and SPY ETFs each holding up above their recent lows, we could try trading them for another rally back to their recent highs even before the middle of December. With QQQ, more than 10% weaker than the DJI, I have suggested avoiding it, and, in fact, even shorting it as a hedge. On Tuesday, we see what the CPI numbers were for last month, November. Because of oil's sell off, I would expect the CPI to drop markedly. That would help explain the strength we are seeing at the opening now. More important will be what the FED chooses to do about the still very high rate of inflation. Bank stocks, better than any other group, are sensitive to FED changes of policies. Since GS has broken down (See below) and JPM shows a potential head/shoulders, I think we have to expect the FED to be unready to reverse its tightening policies. If I am right, then the DJI will be right back at the current price levels a week from now when buying will become seasonally attractive. So, the only action I would take now is buy NVDA because of the accelerating pace up of its Closing Power. Hold QQQ short. I am still working on a number of minor revisions to the Peerless software, but they should be done on Tuesday when I post the revised Peerless software on the ESP page then. |
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Charts - 12/9/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81209.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-09/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-09/BEARISH.htm |
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Heaviest weighted stock in DJI-30 still in price uptrend. |
Second
Heaviest weighted stock in DJI-30 still in price uptrend |
Watch to see if third heaviest weight DJI stock breaks support. |
Fourth heaviest weighted DJI-30 stock is well above price support and shows rising Closing Power. |
Key tech stock in DJI is well above
its key support and 65-dma. Its Closing Power is rising. |
AAPL
is heaviest weighted stock in SPY and QQQ. It is below the 65-dma which must be expected to act as resistance. |
12/9/2022 DJIA 33476.46 -305.02 -0.90% S&P 500 3934.38 -29.13 -0.73% Nasdaq 11004.62 -77.39 -0.70% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,259 3,265 3,294 Advances 926 1,740 1,712 Declines 2,218 1,378 1,426 Unchanged 115 147 156 New highs 43 49 89 New lows 63 71 44 Adv. volume* 290,671,849 525,424,510 462,019,934 Decl. volume* 542,366,743 296,374,694 342,733,487 Total volume* 856,195,382 832,537,532 816,447,349 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.74 0.73 0.80 Block trades* 4,285 4,431 4,798 Adv. volume 1,367,914,713 2,508,355,349 2,363,121,110 Decl. volume 2,439,327,766 1,451,504,672 1,571,857,815 Total volume 3,888,263,390 4,006,900,432 4,012,625,859 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,810 4,869 4,916 Advances 1,654 2,661 2,615 Declines 2,863 1,926 1,968 Unchanged 293 282 333 New highs 68 111 97 New lows 248 254 128 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.90 0.80 0.95 Block trades 26,463 26,060 32,441 Adv. volume 1,649,364,351 2,683,696,562 2,600,949,857 Decl. volume 2,578,310,808 1,546,354,819 1,864,510,802 Total volume 4,337,449,692 4,281,804,122 4,523,013,844 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/9/2022 --- Bullish = 2 FAS, RETL Bearish = 4 DBO, UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 335.37 -3.09 340.03 -138.1% ------- RED .169 === ===== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11004.62 -77.38 11239.94 -204.9% ------- RED .066 -.123 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 393.28 -2.96 399.59 -171.3% ------- RED .175 -.064 .111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 282.04 -1.81 287.64 -184.2% ------- RED .144 -.11 .034 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 451.13 -4.97 458.44 -207.1% ------- RED .015 -.032 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 178.62 -2.22 182.87 -258.7% ------- RED -.04 -.073 -.113 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 75.56 -.67 79.02 -628.9% ------- BLUE .159 .2 .359 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.3 -.44 8.79 -662.5% ------- RED .187 .149 .336 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.32 -.3 12.59 -287.9% Bullish RED .156 .178 .334 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 26.08 -.53 27.57 -548.7% Bullish RED .231 -.003 .228 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 133.01 -2.88 135.49 -200.1% ------- RED .047 -.017 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 167.06 .59 164.39 -6% ------- RED .209 -.068 .141 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 14.17 .06 15.18 -510.8% Bearish ---- -.101 -.235 -.336 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 270.88 -12.55 293.31 -641.3% Bearish RED -.005 .129 .124 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.23 -.2 22.87 -15.1% ------- RED .016 -.024 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 78.62 -.47 81.9 -319.4% ------- RED -.007 -.075 -.082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.36 .06 28.46 22.9% ------- ---- -.311 -.207 -.518 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 25.74 .06 25.65 -21.4% ------- BLUE -.338 -.186 -.524 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.45 -.11 7.52 -185.2% Bearish RED -.2 -.316 -.516 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 48.3 -.72 46.01 204.2% ------- RED .071 .021 .092 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/9/22 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 INFRA .878 .878 .878 .878 .909 .909 BONDFUND .873 .896 .908 .885 .908 .896 ETFS .854 .854 .872 .872 .872 .909 DJI-13 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 1 UTILITY .842 .868 .815 .815 .736 .815 DOWJONES .833 .866 .866 .866 .866 .9 ===== GOLD .826 .847 .913 .826 .847 .913 GUNS .769 .769 .692 .769 .769 .923 CHEM .76 .804 .76 .76 .804 .847 SP-100 .755 .788 .777 .777 .8 .888 SP500 .755 .769 .731 .747 .791 .858 ====== SEMI .736 .747 .673 .684 .778 .831 MILITARY .73 .73 .73 .769 .807 .807 HIGHPRIC .726 .75 .667 .667 .746 .835 INSURANC .72 .76 .76 .76 .72 .76 INDEXES .718 .745 .718 .751 .789 .848 ELECTRON .714 .714 .676 .676 .729 .774 INDMATER .694 .694 .736 .736 .763 .791 FIDSTKS .692 .739 .71 .727 .775 .846 JETS .692 .692 .769 .769 .769 .923 RUS-1000 .685 .7 .657 .664 .726 .818 ===== REIT .684 .676 .646 .6 .669 .776 TRANSP .684 .684 .736 .789 .842 .842 NASD-100 .68 .74 .68 .7 .77 .81 ===== AUTO .679 .716 .698 .735 .735 .792 EDU .666 .833 .833 .833 .833 1 RETAIL .659 .723 .702 .68 .702 .829 FINANCE .65 .587 .587 .65 .7 .825 CHINA .64 .64 .58 .6 .6 .64 NIFTY .613 .704 .568 .59 .659 .772 COMPUTER .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .7 SOFTWARE .589 .625 .553 .535 .553 .696 GAMING .578 .631 .631 .684 .631 .684 GREEN .578 .578 .526 .578 .684 .789 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 1 COMODITY .564 .564 .564 .589 .589 .589 ============================================================================================ COAL .5 .5 .5 .5 .666 .666 HACKERS .5 .5 .437 .437 .5 .562 MARIJUAN .5 .6 .6 .9 1 1 ============================================================================================ FOOD .489 .489 .489 .51 .51 .51 REGBANKS .48 .48 .52 .56 .68 .84 SOLAR .437 .437 .437 .437 .75 .937 BIOTECH .393 .421 .393 .429 .479 .506 OILGAS .367 .443 .443 .471 .594 .679 HOSPITAL .357 .428 .428 .428 .571 .571 LOWPRICE .296 .299 .285 .291 .313 .35 |
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Friday
- 6:12 AM - Futures:
DJI -117 NASDAQ-54 Data
Used: 12/8/2022
12/8/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33781.48 183.56 +0.55% S&P 500 3963.51 29.59 +0.75% Nasdaq 11082.00 123.45 +1.13% |
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Big
banks and oil stocks led the terrible tumble of all stocks in 2008. They are doing it again now. This time around the FED has much less room for mauneuvering. At least, not until the CPI numbers drop back much more. With bank stocks and oil stocks under heavy Professional selling right now, we should be very cautious. It's true that QQQ and the NASDAQ moved up a little above their 65-dma in response to the oversold bounce in the DJI. If the DJI can reverse the early weakness this morning, then it would seem the DJI will reach 34000. But the problem at that point will be the DJI will look like it is forming a top-pattern (a head/shoulders.) If that is what lies ahead, then another 8% DJI decline would be likely as the DJI retraces 50% of what it gained this October and November. Watch the bullish-looking NVDA, MRK and IBB. They show rising Closing Powers. Professionals are buying these because they seem more immune to an economic slow-down. They did this in 2007 and 2008 for the same reason. But it turned out not to be a good foundation for a recovery back then. The big banks stocks are better predictors. Watch FAS and GS. The recent lows may still be broken below if the DJI rally stalls near 34000 and we see a head/shoulders pattern unfolds there. Hold QQQ short. Continue to watch AAPL which seems unable to rally. If it turns out the FED chooses not to be aggressive in raising rates, I would expect Gold and Silver to advance to new recovery highs |
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Charts - 12/8/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81208.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-08/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-08/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 - Breadth Statistics12/8/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33781.48 183.56 +0.55% S&P 500 3963.51 29.59 +0.75% Nasdaq 11082.00 123.45 +1.13% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,265 3,264 3,295 Advances 1,740 1,512 1,746 Declines 1,378 1,616 1,395 Unchanged 147 136 154 New highs 49 38 104 New lows 71 102 25 Adv. volume* 525,424,510 332,827,500 427,915,023 Decl. volume* 296,374,694 533,382,964 492,569,154 Total volume* 832,537,532 885,453,002 935,963,090 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.73 1.71 1.33 Block trades* 4,431 4,424 5,140 Adv. volume 2,508,355,349 1,414,305,331 2,158,796,657 Decl. volume 1,451,504,672 2,581,305,974 2,297,474,033 Total volume 4,006,900,432 4,118,053,025 4,527,134,623 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,869 4,820 4,920 Advances 2,661 1,966 2,481 Declines 1,926 2,584 2,125 Unchanged 282 270 314 New highs 111 70 125 New lows 254 326 107 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.80 1.22 0.75 Block trades 26,060 27,746 43,305 Adv. volume 2,683,696,562 1,648,690,343 3,018,176,452 Decl. volume 1,546,354,819 2,633,943,698 1,946,427,460 Total volume 4,281,804,122 4,343,866,676 5,158,120,970 |
Table 2
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/8/2022 ---Bullish = 1 FAS Bearish = 4 DBO, UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 338.46 2.02 344.74 -87.4% ------- BLUE .159 0 .159 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11082 123.45 11461.5 -178.3% ------- BLUE .057 -.138 -.081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 396.24 3.08 406.91 -139.2% ------- BLUE .174 -.071 .103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 283.85 3.32 292.55 -171.8% ------- BLUE .123 -.127 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 456.1 3.57 470.1 -147% ------- BLUE .015 -.036 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 180.84 1.3 188.05 -166.8% Bearish BLUE -.045 -.076 -.121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 76.23 .38 85.46 -645.4% Bearish RED .119 .172 .291 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.74 .17 9.47 -274.4% ------- BLUE .132 .031 .163 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.62 .92 13.03 -351.8% ------- BLUE .142 .1 .242 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 26.61 1.21 29.03 -535.2% Bullish BLUE .203 -.063 .14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 135.89 1.76 138.43 -46.8% ------- BLUE .055 -.002 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 166.47 .14 167.26 -41.2% ------- RED .183 -.064 .119 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 14.11 -.19 15.68 -591.2% Bearish RED -.124 -.236 -.36 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 283.43 .9 308.27 -327.9% Bearish RED -.011 .195 .184 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.43 .17 23.3 114.8% ------- RED .035 .01 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 79.09 .63 83.76 -148.9% ------- BLUE -.01 -.118 -.128 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.3 -.09 28.23 7.1% ------- RED -.31 -.206 -.516 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 25.68 -.05 25.85 -96.9% ------- ---- -.427 -.181 -.608 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.56 -.02 7.73 -222.9% Bearish RED -.243 -.304 -.547 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 49.02 4.31 46.39 660.5% ------- BLUE .067 -.066 .001 |
Table 3RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/8/22 Bullish = 40 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 1 BONDFUND .896 .908 .885 .908 .896 .896 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 INFRA .878 .878 .878 .909 .909 .909 UTILITY .868 .815 .815 .736 .815 .815 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .866 .866 .9 ETFS .854 .872 .872 .872 .927 .909 GOLD .847 .913 .826 .847 .913 .913 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 1 1 CHEM .804 .76 .782 .782 .869 .804 SP-100 .788 .777 .777 .8 .877 .9 GUNS .769 .692 .769 .769 .923 .923 SP500 .769 .731 .747 .787 .854 .864 INSURANC .76 .76 .76 .72 .76 .84 HIGHPRIC .75 .667 .667 .746 .835 .847 SEMI .747 .673 .684 .778 .821 .821 INDEXES .745 .718 .751 .789 .843 .837 NASD-100 .74 .68 .7 .77 .8 .85 FIDSTKS .739 .71 .727 .775 .834 .846 MILITARY .73 .73 .769 .807 .807 .769 RETAIL .723 .702 .68 .702 .829 .829 AUTO .716 .698 .735 .735 .792 .773 ELECTRON .714 .676 .676 .729 .766 .774 NIFTY .704 .568 .59 .659 .75 .795 RUS-1000 .7 .657 .664 .726 .811 .817 INDMATER .694 .736 .736 .763 .791 .763 JETS .692 .769 .769 .769 .923 .923 TRANSP .684 .736 .789 .842 .842 .842 REIT .676 .638 .607 .676 .753 .761 CHINA .64 .58 .6 .6 .64 .54 GAMING .631 .631 .631 .684 .684 .684 SOFTWARE .625 .571 .535 .553 .642 .714 COMPUTER .6 .6 .6 .6 .65 .65 MARIJUAN .6 .6 .9 1 1 1 FINANCE .587 .587 .65 .687 .825 .825 GREEN .578 .526 .578 .684 .789 .736 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .571 .571 1 1 COMODITY .564 .564 .564 .589 .589 .615 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- COAL .5 .5 .5 .666 .666 .666 HACKERS .5 .437 .437 .5 .562 .625 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOOD .489 .489 .489 .51 .51 .571 REGBANKS .48 .52 .56 .68 .84 .84 OILGAS .443 .443 .471 .594 .679 .698 SOLAR .437 .437 .437 .75 .937 .625 HOSPITAL .428 .428 .428 .571 .571 .571 BIOTECH .421 .391 .432 .479 .504 .465 LOWPRICE .299 .288 .294 .313 .344 .324 |
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Thursday
- 6:02 AM - Futures: DJI +180 NASDAQ+79
Data Used: 12/7/2022
12/7/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33597.92 1.58 0.00 S&P 500 3933.92 -7.34 -0.19 Nasdaq 10958.55 -56.34 -0.51 |
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A DJI rebound back
towards 34000 seems to be in the cards today, as bullish Professionals bid up the DJI, SPY, NASDAQ and QQQ up from their recent set of lows. See below how the recent lows have built a line that becones support. The reason for this seems to be that the CPI numbers will again show a reduction when CPI comparisons are made year to year. (See below how the November vs October comparisons are less valid in that they often tend to show a decline even when the real trend is up.) Oil Prices are coming down. Hence the weakness in NRGU shown below helps reduce gasoline and heating prices. In addition, consumer spending is slowing down, even as prices still rise where big corporations can control their markets, as in the case of many of the DJI-30. Elsewhere, the slow-down is very evident in many other stocks and in the layoffs in tech stocks. The dangers to bank stocks which need to worry about credit risks of consumers is a factor now, and to smaller companies in competitive fields like Carvana (see below). All this will tend to keep the FED on a path of moderate rate hikes. We see this in the drop in ten year rates from its recent high by 0.8% and in rising bond prices. The Consumer Price Index for November 2022 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, December 13, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. (ET). Despite, the prospects of a bounce by the DJI up from its rising 21-day ma with a rising Closing Power and a still positive IP21, my sense is that seasonality (which is bearish until the middle of the month), the falling 65-dma of QQQ and the NASDAQ as well as tax-loss selling and poor ITRS reading, all these factors, will hold back the rally as far as QQQ is concerned. So hedging by being short them is recommended. |
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Charts - 12/7/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81207.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-07/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-07/BEARISH.htm |
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Monthly CPI numbers since 2010
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12/7/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33597.92 1.58 0.00 S&P 500 3933.92 -7.34 -0.19 Nasdaq 10958.55 -56.34 -0.51 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,264 3,275 3,316 Advances 1,512 906 2,730 Declines 1,616 2,231 456 Unchanged 136 138 130 New highs 38 37 82 New lows 102 114 66 Adv. volume* 332,827,500 281,158,629 1,743,976,245 Decl. volume* 533,382,964 676,801,258 194,553,706 Total volume* 885,453,002 969,965,743 1,982,533,133 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.71 0.88 0.66 Block trades* 4,424 4,881 6,273 Adv. volume 1,414,305,331 1,360,348,770 5,818,888,088 Decl. volume 2,581,305,974 2,942,807,100 640,443,842 Total volume 4,118,053,025 4,368,388,636 6,579,368,595 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,820 4,894 4,995 Advances 1,966 1,382 3,606 Declines 2,584 3,235 1,137 Unchanged 270 277 252 New highs 70 68 133 New lows 326 312 218 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.22 1.73 1.10 Block trades 27,746 34,183 46,474 Adv. volume 1,648,690,343 926,111,532 4,917,235,646 Decl. volume 2,633,943,698 3,754,332,752 1,697,748,114 Total volume 4,343,866,676 4,713,331,628 6,653,464,723 Total volume 4,713,331,628 4,510,035,402 4,592,837,677 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/7/2022 --- Bullish = 2 FAS, OIH Bearish = 3 UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 336.44 -.02 344.41 -141.8% ------- BLUE .173 0 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10958.55 -56.34 11482.45 -224.8% ------- RED .033 -.143 -.11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 393.16 -.67 407.38 -180.1% ------- BLUE .163 -.073 .09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 280.53 -1.15 293.72 -221.4% Bullish BLUE .103 -.133 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 452.53 -.54 469.65 -193.3% ------- BLUE .02 -.029 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 179.54 -.53 186.96 -211.5% Bearish RED -.04 -.065 -.105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 75.85 -1.16 86.66 -741.6% Bearish RED .145 .225 .37 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.57 -.01 9.23 -558.5% ------- BLUE .134 .115 .249 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 11.7 -.02 13.5 -819.7% Bullish BLUE .114 .038 .152 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 25.4 -.39 29.55 -712.7% Bullish ---- .166 -.096 .07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 134.13 .88 137.16 -88.1% ------- BLUE .035 .013 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 166.33 1.49 167.84 45.8% ------- BLUE .254 -.057 .197 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 14.3 -.33 15.9 -476.3% Bearish RED -.112 -.201 -.313 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 282.53 -7.45 302.8 -360.7% Bearish RED .033 .238 .271 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.26 .2 22.9 95.7% Bullish BLUE .063 .02 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 78.46 -.63 81.5 -336.4% ------- RED .006 -.122 -.116 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.39 -.09 28.26 -38.7% ------- ---- -.296 -.229 -.525 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 25.73 .18 26.18 -133.1% Bullish BLUE -.464 -.189 -.653 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.58 .17 7.9 -297.9% Bearish BLUE -.282 -.287 -.569 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 44.71 -3.05 43 38.5% ------- BLUE .068 -.14 -.072 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/7/22 Bullish = 41 (Still good support underneath current prices.) Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 1 .923 GOLD .913 .826 .847 .913 .913 .869 BONDFUND .908 .885 .908 .896 .908 .896 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 INFRA .878 .878 .909 .909 .909 .939 ETFS .872 .872 .872 .927 .927 .909 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .866 .9 .933 ===== EDU .833 .833 .833 1 1 .833 UTILITY .815 .815 .736 .815 .789 .868 SP-100 .777 .777 .8 .877 .9 .922 JETS .769 .769 .769 .923 .923 .923 CHEM .76 .782 .804 .847 .826 .826 INSURANC .76 .76 .72 .76 .84 .88 INDMATER .736 .736 .763 .791 .763 .791 TRANSP .736 .789 .842 .842 .842 .894 SP500 .731 .747 .787 .85 .864 .866 ----- MILITARY .73 .769 .807 .807 .769 .73 INDEXES .713 .751 .789 .843 .837 .832 FIDSTKS .71 .727 .775 .834 .846 .863 RETAIL .702 .68 .702 .829 .829 .872 AUTO .698 .735 .735 .792 .773 .754 GUNS .692 .769 .769 .923 .923 .923 NASD-100 .68 .7 .77 .8 .85 .8 ----- ELECTRON .676 .676 .729 .766 .751 .744 SEMI .673 .684 .778 .821 .81 .81 HIGHPRIC .667 .667 .746 .835 .839 .824 RUS-1000 .657 .664 .726 .811 .815 .81 ----- REIT .638 .6 .684 .761 .753 .761 GAMING .631 .631 .631 .736 .684 .578 COMPUTER .6 .6 .6 .65 .65 .7 MARIJUAN .6 .9 1 1 1 .9 FINANCE .587 .65 .687 .812 .825 .875 CHINA .58 .6 .6 .64 .56 .62 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .571 1 1 1 SOFTWARE .571 .553 .553 .642 .678 .66 NIFTY .568 .59 .659 .75 .795 .727 COMODITY .564 .564 .564 .589 .615 .615 GREEN .526 .578 .684 .789 .736 .578 REGBANKS .52 .56 .68 .84 .84 .88 =============================================================================================== COAL .5 .5 .666 .666 .666 .833 =============================================================================================== FOOD .489 .489 .489 .51 .551 .571 OILGAS .443 .471 .594 .679 .698 .783 HACKERS .437 .437 .5 .562 .625 .5 SOLAR .437 .437 .75 .937 .625 .625 HOSPITAL .428 .428 .571 .571 .571 .571 BIOTECH .391 .429 .482 .504 .468 .471 LOWPRICE .288 .296 .316 .344 .319 .327 |
Wednesday - 6:10 AM - Futures: DJI -80 NASDAQ-91
Data Used: 12/6/2022
12/6/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33596.34 -350.76 -1.03% SP 500 3941.26 -57.58 -1.44% Nasdaq 11014.89 -225.05 -2.00% |
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The DJI and market as a whole are falling quickly. They are being led down by Big Banks and now Oil and Gas Stocks. We know from the year 2008 that this can be a deadly combination. Making it worse right now will be tax loss selling and the FED's difficulty this time around in lowering rates and initiating a new program of quantitative easing. But perhaps, the CPI number will show another drop because of falling oil prices. I see foods like wheat and sugar dropping, but bread and candy bars are not following suit. Rents are not. So, any moderation in the CPI rate of increase will likely be modest when the CPI number comes out on Thursday. A 50% retracement of the October-November rally would take the DJI back to 31700. A decline only to that level would be constructive, assuming we get a Buy B13 Santa Claus signal around the 17th of December. But a steeper and deeper decline would be scary because of the 2008 scenario. If you are short some of our bearish MINCPs and long little other than Gold stocks, I think you will be well situated. Watch the NASDAQ. It is at key support. With AMZN breaking down again, QQQ might well be shorted again. It and the NASDAQ are under-performing the DJI by more than 10% over the last 50-trading days. The market will probably continue to decline in the near-term. First, out of fear what the CPI will bring. Second, because each day brings more tech lay offs, it seems. Third, because the A/D Line uptrend has been broken. See in the DJI chart below how reliable this has been this past year. Also the Stochastic-20 PctD has dropped below 80. This is another reliable sell. |
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Charts - 12/6/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81206.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-06/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-06/BEARISH.htm |
12/6/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33596.34 -350.76 -1.03% S&P 500 3941.26 -57.58 -1.44% Nasdaq 11014.89 -225.05 -2.00% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,275 3,304 3,287 Advances 906 480 1,823 Declines 2,231 2,693 1,338 Unchanged 138 131 1263 New highs 37 62 46 New lows 114 55 68 Adv. volume* 281,158,629 63,519,747 542,845,530 Decl. volume* 676,801,258 835,905,734 230,164,849 Total volume* 969,965,743 904,232,630 780,140,619 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.88 2.25 0.53 Block trades* 4,881 5,007 4,439 Adv. volume 1,360,348,770 311,650,361 2,522,639,891 Decl. volume 2,942,807,100 3,937,094,460 982,347,892 Total volume 4,368,388,636 4,280,824,911 3,546,049,019 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,894 4,884 4,900 Advances 1,382 1,189 2,326 Declines 3,235 3,468 2,302 Unchanged 277 227 272 New highs 68 108 85 New lows 312 168 188 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.73 0.91 0.58 Block trades 34,183 31,114 40,673 Adv. volume 926,111,532 1,223,770,374 2,886,611,498 Decl. volume 3,754,332,752 3,247,477,472 1,654,608,950 Total volume 4,713,331,628 4,510,035,402 4,592,837,677 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/6/2022 --- Bullish = 3 FAS, RETL, OIH Bearish = 3 UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 336.46 -3.57 346.15 -29.5% ------- RED .225 0 .225 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11014.89 -225.05 11468 13.7% ------- RED .078 -.13 -.052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 393.83 -5.76 407.68 -17.4% ------- RED .207 -.068 .139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 281.68 -5.96 293.36 19.2% ------- RED .138 -.123 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 453.07 -5.37 470.48 -73.4% ------- RED .08 -.021 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 180.07 -2.8 187.37 -62% Bearish RED -.007 -.053 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 77.01 -2.01 88.2 -416.3% Bearish RED .207 .233 .44 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.58 -.21 9.59 -270.8% ------- RED .165 .16 .325 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 11.72 -.87 13.82 -3.9% Bullish RED .139 .078 .217 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 25.79 -1.78 29.43 31.9% Bullish RED .204 -.069 .135 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 133.25 -2.24 136.53 36% ------- RED .03 .025 .055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 164.84 .45 164.81 63.8% ------- RED .198 -.059 .139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 14.63 -.55 15.77 -237.5% Bearish RED -.112 -.152 -.264 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 289.98 -3.33 304.15 -152.5% Bearish RED .113 .31 .423 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.06 .19 22.82 230.5% ------- RED .044 .014 .058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 79.09 -2.81 83.98 -24.4% ------- RED 0 -.086 -.086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.48 .02 28.61 -63.2% ------- BLUE -.301 -.221 -.522 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 25.55 -.1 26.42 -208.4% Bearish RED -.508 -.189 -.697 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.41 -.11 8.04 -326% Bearish RED -.341 -.289 -.63 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 47.76 1.75 44.36 994% ------- RED .028 -.1 -.072 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/6/22 Bullish = 41 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 1 .923 .923 MARIJUAN .9 1 1 1 .9 .9 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 BONDFUND .885 .908 .896 .908 .908 .827 INFRA .878 .909 .909 .909 .909 .909 ETFS .872 .872 .927 .927 .927 .854 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .9 .933 .833 EDU .833 .833 1 1 .833 .833 GOLD .826 .847 .913 .913 .869 .782 UTILITY .815 .736 .815 .789 .842 .684 TRANSP .789 .842 .842 .842 .894 .842 CHEM .782 .804 .869 .804 .847 .782 SP-100 .777 .8 .877 .9 .922 .866 GUNS .769 .769 .923 .923 .923 .846 JETS .769 .769 .923 .923 .923 .846 MILITARY .769 .807 .807 .769 .73 .692 INSURANC .76 .72 .76 .84 .88 .84 INDEXES .751 .789 .843 .837 .832 .762 SP500 .747 .787 .85 .86 .868 .795 INDMATER .736 .763 .791 .763 .791 .736 AUTO .735 .735 .792 .773 .754 .716 FIDSTKS .727 .775 .834 .846 .863 .769 NASD-100 .7 .77 .8 .85 .8 .66 SEMI .684 .778 .821 .81 .8 .684 RETAIL .68 .702 .829 .829 .872 .851 ELECTRON .676 .729 .766 .751 .736 .654 HIGHPRIC .667 .746 .835 .839 .824 .687 RUS-1000 .664 .726 .811 .815 .81 .729 FINANCE .65 .687 .812 .812 .875 .85 GAMING .631 .631 .684 .736 .578 .578 CHINA .6 .6 .64 .56 .6 .46 COMPUTER .6 .6 .65 .65 .7 .6 REIT .6 .676 .769 .761 .753 .676 NIFTY .59 .659 .75 .795 .727 .522 GREEN .578 .684 .789 .736 .578 .631 BIGBANKS .571 .571 1 1 1 1 COMODITY .564 .564 .564 .615 .615 .615 REGBANKS .56 .68 .84 .84 .88 .88 SOFTWARE .553 .571 .642 .678 .66 .571 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COAL .5 .666 .666 .666 .833 .5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOOD .489 .489 .489 .551 .571 .551 OILGAS .471 .594 .679 .698 .773 .726 HACKERS .437 .5 .562 .625 .5 .5 SOLAR .437 .75 .937 .625 .625 .5 BIOTECH .429 .479 .506 .468 .468 .41 HOSPITAL .428 .571 .571 .571 .571 .5 LOWPRICE .296 .319 .347 .319 .327 .31 |
Tuesday - 6:15 AM - Futures: DJI -49 NASDAQ+10 Data Used: 12/5/2022
12/5/2022 Last Chg % Chg DJIA 33947.10 -482.78 -1.40% S&P 500 3998.84 -72.86 -1.79% Nasdaq 11239.94 -221.56 -1.93% |
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The seasonal forces
call for a decline for about two weeks. That seems in order as the big banks, which were under considerable pressure today, ponder whether and how the Fed will be able to rescue them again if the economy further weakens and with inflation rising. This is the week the CPI numbers come out. And with inflation running 3% above the yield on the 10-year Treasury bonds, the FED may not have room to come to the banks' rescue if debtors start to default in rising numbers because their expenses are running too high in these inflationary times. Also, the pressures on central banks to raise rates may force even Powell to raise rates and not do a quick switch to QE as he did in December 2018. So, a "soft landing" may be out of reach. Never in the XXth century when Inflation reached 7% was there a "soft landing". Professionals are still net bullish, but look at the charts of Big Banks, FAS and HD below. Are banks about to lead stocks lower? The uptrend lines could easily be broken on another decline today. That would turn down the 5-dma and also break the Closing Power uptrends. That would make the whole advance by the DJI above 34000 look like a fake-out, designed to get shorts to cover and get the last chasers of the 20% DJI rally to buy in. The weak OBV and the lagging A/D Line uptrend look ready for dangerous, bearish violations. I hope you are short some on the bearish MINCPs. Being long gold stocks does carry some risk. But higher inflation numbers this week could easily give them another bounce. In any case, buying on a further decline near the middle of the month remains my counsel here. A Santa Claus Buy B13 would then be expected after December 16th. |
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Charts - 12/5/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81205.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-05/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-05/BEARISH.htm |
12/5/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33947.10 -482.78 -1.40% S&P 500 3998.84 -72.86 -1.79% Nasdaq 11239.94 -221.56 -1.93% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,304 3,294 3,295 Advances 480 1,712 705 Declines 2,693 1,426 2,475 Unchanged 131 156 115 New highs 62 89 47 New lows 55 44 59 Adv. volume* 63,519,747 462,019,934 107,665,489 Decl. volume* 835,905,734 342,733,487 705,164,157 Total volume* 904,232,630 816,447,349 814,664,558 Closing Arms (TRIN) 2.25 0.80 1.59 Block trades* 5,007 4,798 4,529 Adv. volume 311,650,361 2,363,121,110 546,617,973 Decl. volume 3,937,094,460 1,571,857,815 3,055,867,282 Total volume 4,280,824,911 4,012,625,859 3,615,439,244 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,884 4,916 4,978 Advances 1,189 2,615 1,294 Declines 3,468 1,968 3,443 Unchanged 227 333 241 New highs 108 97 118 New lows 168 128 189 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.91 0.95 0.60 Block trades 31,114 32,441 31,107 Adv. volume 1,223,770,374 2,600,949,857 1,625,132,930 Decl. volume 3,247,477,472 1,864,510,802 2,613,048,711 Total volume 4,510,035,402 4,523,013,844 4,271,369,300 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/5/2022 --- Bullish = 6 DJI, FAS, RETL, SOXL, TECL, OIH Bearish = 3 UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 340.03 -4.71 338.48 22.5% ------- RED .279 0 .279 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11239.94 -221.56 10983.78 84.3% ------- RED .128 -.115 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 399.59 -7.32 395.23 45.7% Bullish RED .252 -.063 .189 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 287.64 -4.91 280.57 85.4% Bullish RED .197 -.105 .092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 458.44 -11.66 459.91 .3% ------- RED .11 -.025 .085 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 182.87 -5.18 182.37 27.8% ------- RED .035 -.056 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 79.02 -6.44 84.06 -207.9% ------- RED .241 .199 .44 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.79 -.68 9.08 -113.2% ------- RED .153 .126 .279 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.59 -.44 11.73 293.3% Bullish RED .206 .106 .312 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 27.57 -1.46 25.61 214.3% Bullish RED .27 -.02 .25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 135.49 -2.94 132.27 96% ------- RED .085 .026 .111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 164.39 -2.87 162.73 74.6% ------- RED .258 -.075 .183 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.18 -.5 15.37 45% Bearish RED -.059 -.149 -.208 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 293.31 -14.96 299.18 15.4% Bearish RED .131 .289 .42 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.87 -.43 22.01 261.7% ------- RED .123 -.013 .11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 81.9 -1.86 79.49 88% ------- RED .018 -.067 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.46 .23 28.84 -57.8% ------- BLUE -.365 -.211 -.576 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 25.65 -.2 26.64 -186% ------- RED -.504 -.196 -.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.52 -.21 7.92 -240.6% Bearish RED -.316 -.297 -.613 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 46.01 -.38 39.06 1451.8% ------- RED .117 -.122 -.005 |
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/5/22 Bullish = 45 Bearish = 3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 MARIJUAN 1 1 1 .9 .9 .9 DJI-13 .923 .923 1 .923 .923 .923 INFRA .909 .909 .909 .909 .909 .909 BONDFUND .908 .896 .908 .908 .816 .827 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 ETFS .872 .927 .927 .927 .836 .727 DOWJONES .866 .866 .9 .933 .833 .9 ---- GOLD .847 .913 .913 .869 .782 .76 TRANSP .842 .842 .842 .894 .842 .789 EDU .833 1 1 .833 .833 .833 MILITARY .807 .807 .769 .73 .692 .73 CHEM .804 .869 .826 .826 .804 .76 SP-100 .8 .877 .9 .922 .866 .844 INDEXES .789 .843 .837 .832 .756 .772 SP500 .787 .85 .86 .864 .797 .808 ----- SEMI .778 .821 .81 .8 .663 .684 FIDSTKS .775 .834 .846 .863 .769 .775 NASD-100 .77 .8 .85 .8 .65 .71 ----- GUNS .769 .923 .923 .923 .769 .769 JETS .769 .923 .923 .923 .846 .538 INDMATER .763 .791 .763 .791 .736 .694 SOLAR .75 .937 .625 .625 .5 .562 HIGHPRIC .746 .835 .839 .824 .683 .703 UTILITY .736 .815 .789 .842 .684 .736 AUTO .735 .792 .773 .754 .716 .716 ELECTRON .729 .766 .751 .736 .639 .669 RUS-1000 .726 .811 .815 .81 .725 .725 ----- INSURANC .72 .76 .84 .88 .84 .8 RETAIL .702 .829 .829 .872 .851 .872 FINANCE .687 .812 .812 .862 .837 .762 GREEN .684 .789 .736 .578 .631 .578 REGBANKS .68 .84 .84 .88 .88 .88 REIT .676 .761 .769 .761 .669 .615 COAL .666 .666 .666 .833 .5 .5 NIFTY .659 .75 .795 .727 .522 .59 GAMING .631 .684 .684 .631 .578 .631 CHINA .6 .64 .56 .6 .4 .2 COMPUTER .6 .65 .65 .7 .6 .6 OILGAS .594 .679 .698 .773 .698 .66 BIGBANKS .571 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .571 .571 .571 .571 .5 .428 SOFTWARE .571 .66 .678 .66 .571 .625 COMODITY .564 .564 .589 .615 .615 .589 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS .5 .562 .625 .5 .5 .562 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOOD .489 .489 .53 .571 .551 .53 BIOTECH .479 .504 .471 .468 .413 .393 LOWPRICE .321 .351 .324 .329 .31 .301 |
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Monday -
3:49 AM - Futures: DJI -124 NASDAQ -27
Data Used: 12/2/2022
12/2/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 34429.88 34.87 +0.10% Nasdaq 11461.50 -20.95 -0.18% S&P 500 4071.70 -4.87 -0.12% |
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By retreating more this morning, the DJI is busy testing its price-breakout above 34000. A close below 33800 would suggest a false breakout and a bearish buying climax has just occurred. It would turn down the short-term 5-day ma of the DJI-30 and DIA. Also casting doubt on the durability and validity of the 34,000 resistance- turned-into-support there are the wide divergences between the various indexes and their OBV Lines and also the big difference in what the DJI has re-gained versus the NYSE A/D line's recovery. In addition, we see short-term weakness ahead for UNH (shown below, the DJI's highest component), Goldman Sachs (GS, the #2 most heavilily weighted stock in the DJI-30) and hesitation in AMGN (the #3 most heavily weighted DJI-30 stock). Seasonality for the next two weaks is also weak, but not seriously so. Afterwards, it turns quite bullish. It is so bullish, in fact, for the first few months of the new year that Peerless Sell S9s are mostly disallowed. See the blue table just below the commentary. So, a big decline now is not foretold by seasonality or the amount of Professional buying. In addition, there are far too many stocks that are above the support of their 65-dma. See Table 3 below. NYSE Professionals are very bullish. When we compare the rising Closing Powers for DIA, SPY, NASDAQ and QQQ, we conclude that the these ETFs and DJI have been bid up mainly by NYSE Professionals who are taking stock away from the Public (which tends to sell at the opening) and overseas traders (who trade most before the NYSE opens). This divergence is ordinarily bullish and commonly occurs as a bull market begins. The short-term weakness we see just ahead seems to reflect concerns that next week's CPI numbers may show 7% or higher inflation, which may get FOMC members to start talking about interest rates at 5%, a full percent above current levels. That would be bearish. But that has not happened yet. And it may not even occur, at all. The bulls hope for a bigger drop in the CPI and more FED talk about a cessation of rate increases next year. I think the second scenario is the more likely. A pause in rate inceases after December may continue until February or March. That would explain the amount of Professional buying and also the weakness in the U.S. Dollar. This, in turn, accounts for the strength we see now in precious metals stocks and ETFs. Buy more gold and silver stocks because of the risk of higher inflation and and a simultanous interest rate rate-hike pause in January. Tax loss selling in much of the tech sector may be a problem now that we are in December. Note, in this connection, that AAPL cannot get past its 65-dma. Inflation is still very much alive. It is getting built into the economy. I see it in the grocery store and from the 10%/yr rent increases of absentee corporations and lords. Wages are going up, too, but not as fast as inflation. In the short-term, the Inflation allows some big consumer companies to justify their price increases and also increase their profits by simply raising prices or shrinling what they are selling. This is all part of the "spiraling-up phase" of Inflation. But eventually, consumers and renters will not be able to keep pace with what they pay for basics. We will know that point has been reached when bank stocks and credit card companies breakdown badly in the stock market because indebtedness will be too much. At that point, the FED will need to reinflate the financial system. The best time to buy the DJI in most Decembers in the second year of the four year Presidential cycle is just after the middle of the month. For now, we can buy some of our Bullish MAXCPs, especially if we hedge by being short a few of the most bearish MINCPs. (Tomorrow night we will look at some of the Decembers in the third year that failed to bring a rally at the end of the year, just in case, we see this in 2022.) |
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Charts - 12/2/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81202.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-02/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-02/BEARISH.htm |
The DJI will have to drop
Monday by 580 for the short-term 5-day ma to turned down. But the breakout above 34300 shows a lagging NYSE A/D line, but that key indicator is still rising as is our Accumulation Index (IP21). |
Again early weakness was reversed upwards due to a steeply
rising Closing Power. When the two diverge like this, usually the Professionals who are big buyers are proven correct. |
Relative strength in NASDAQ is
much weaker than DJI, but Professionals are net buyers while Public and Overseas traders are net sellers. |
Weak openings and R.S.-ITRS, but as
with NASDAQ, Closing Power seems quite strong.. |
SPY is struggling to surpass its 200-day ma
decisively. Bullish Closing Power versus Opening Power divergence. |
Goldman
Sachs - support at 375. Falling 5-dma. Bullish Closing Power versus Opening Power divergence. |
Most heavily weighted DJI-30 stock Watch recent uptrend in Closing Power for bearish violation. Falling 5-dma. |
Biotech traders watch AMGEN. It is caught in a tight trading range. Professionals are still net buyers. Note Closing Power uptrend. |
Dollar's weakness invites a rally in precious metals. |
12/2/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 34429.88 34.87 +0.10% Nasdaq 11461.50 -20.95 -0.18% S&P 500 4071.70 -4.87 -0.12% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,294 3,295 3,177 Advances 1,712 1,746 1,934 Declines 1,426 1,395 1,079 Unchanged 156 154 164 New highs 89 104 63 New lows 44 25 30 Adv. volume* 462,019,934 427,915,023 204,333,292 Decl. volume* 342,733,487 492,569,154 135,101,819 Total volume* 816,447,349 935,963,090 353,248,316 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.80 1.33 1.32 Block trades* 4,798 5,140 3,216 Adv. volume 2,363,121,110 2,158,796,657 922,223,663 Decl. volume 1,571,857,815 2,297,474,033 676,817,477 Total volume 4,012,625,859 4,527,134,623 1,681,324,114 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,916 4,920 4,579 Advances 2,615 2,481 2,478 Declines 1,968 2,125 1,834 Unchanged 333 314 267 New highs 97 125 92 New lows 128 107 96 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.95 0.75 1.56 Block trades 32,441 43,305 20,248 Adv. volume 2,600,949,857 3,018,176,452 1,011,263,126 Decl. volume 1,864,510,802 1,946,427,460 1,170,550,882 Total volume 4,523,013,844 5,158,120,970 2,212,266,778 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/2/2022 --- Bullish = 5 DJI, FAS, RETL, SOXL, GLD, OIH Bearish = 3 UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 344.74 .33 338.49 17.8% Bullish BLUE .308 0 .308 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11461.5 -20.95 11049.5 104.6% Bullish BLUE .117 -.111 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 406.91 -.47 395.91 57% Bullish BLUE .267 -.06 .207 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 292.55 -1.17 282.71 97.9% Bullish BLUE .16 -.103 .057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 470.1 .45 458.41 27.9% Bullish BLUE .169 -.019 .15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 188.05 1.09 181.84 66.8% ------- BLUE .08 -.05 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 85.46 -1.2 82.57 -101.5% ------- BLUE .262 .247 .509 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9.47 .24 9 86.6% ------- BLUE .178 .181 .359 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 13.03 -.47 11.84 66.7% ------- BLUE .203 .093 .296 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 29.03 -.52 26.37 147.3% Bullish BLUE .23 -.004 .226 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 138.43 1.27 132.89 171.3% ------- BLUE .14 .039 .179 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 167.26 -.58 161.93 123.1% Bullish BLUE .338 -.073 .265 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.68 -.22 15.04 207.5% Bearish RED -.027 -.169 -.196 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 308.27 5.47 292.38 153.7% ------- BLUE .224 .233 .457 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.3 .4 21.69 334.9% ------- BLUE .142 -.028 .114 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 83.76 2.26 80.46 77.8% ------- BLUE .058 -.08 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.23 -.03 28.79 -61.2% Bearish RED -.342 -.201 -.543 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 25.85 -.33 26.63 -149% Bullish RED -.508 -.204 -.712 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.73 -.17 7.9 -213.4% ------- RED -.227 -.298 -.525 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 46.39 3.39 34 1711.4% ------- BLUE .192 -.153 .039 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED ON PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/2/22 73% of all stocks are now above their 65-dma --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 ----- COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 EDU 1 1 .833 .833 .833 1 MARIJUAN 1 1 .9 .9 .9 .9 SOLAR .937 .625 .625 .5 .562 .625 ETFS .927 .927 .927 .836 .745 .745 DJI-13 .923 1 .923 .923 .923 .923 GUNS .923 .923 .923 .769 .769 .846 JETS .923 .923 .923 .846 .538 .692 GOLD .913 .913 .869 .782 .76 .869 ----- INFRA .909 .909 .909 .909 .878 .939 BONDFUND .896 .908 .908 .816 .827 .85 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 ------ SP-100 .877 .9 .922 .866 .833 .9 CHEM .869 .826 .847 .782 .782 .782 DOWJONES .866 .9 .933 .833 .866 .933 ------ SP500 .85 .86 .864 .793 .802 .844 ------ INDEXES .843 .837 .832 .756 .767 .81 TRANSP .842 .842 .894 .842 .789 .789 REGBANKS .84 .84 .88 .88 .88 .88 HIGHPRIC .835 .839 .824 .683 .699 .757 FIDSTKS .834 .846 .863 .769 .763 .846 RETAIL .829 .829 .872 .851 .851 .893 SEMI .821 .81 .8 .663 .673 .768 UTILITY .815 .789 .842 .684 .71 .763 FINANCE .812 .812 .862 .825 .75 .85 RUS-1000 .811 .815 .81 .725 .717 .772 ----- MILITARY .807 .769 .73 .692 .73 .769 NASD-100 .8 .85 .8 .65 .7 .72 ----- AUTO .792 .773 .754 .716 .716 .735 INDMATER .791 .763 .791 .736 .68 .75 GREEN .789 .736 .578 .631 .578 .631 ELECTRON .766 .751 .736 .639 .654 .729 REIT .761 .761 .769 .676 .592 .7 INSURANC .76 .84 .88 .84 .8 .84 NIFTY .75 .795 .727 .522 .568 .613 GAMING .684 .684 .578 .631 .631 .578 OILGAS .679 .698 .773 .698 .66 .745 COAL .666 .666 .833 .5 .5 .666 SOFTWARE .66 .696 .66 .571 .607 .607 COMPUTER .65 .65 .7 .6 .6 .7 CHINA .64 .56 .6 .4 .2 .18 HOSPITAL .571 .571 .571 .5 .428 .571 COMODITY .564 .589 .589 .615 .589 .589 HACKERS .562 .625 .5 .5 .562 .562 BIOTECH .504 .468 .471 .413 .393 .429 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOOD .489 .53 .551 .551 .53 .53 LOWPRICE .351 .326 .332 .31 .301 .321 |
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Friday - 5:31 AM - Futures: DJI -53 NASDAQ -20 Data Used: 12/1/2022
12-1-22 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 34395.01 -194.76 -0.56% Nasdaq 11482.45 +14.45 +0.13% S&P 500 4076.57 -3.54 -0.09 % |
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Let's consider the
operative Peerless signal to be a new Buy B21. I discussed this last night in relation to October often being a "bear market killer", especially before mid-term elections. I programmed today a Buy B21 when the 21-day ma rate of change (annualized) of DJI closings rises above 100% at the end of October and we buy on the next dip below the 4% band. This "AROC" buy signal gave a Buy B21 early in November thiis year and also in 1938 and 1998. In both cases, it was profitable. In our case in 2022, it would have cut short the loss from the failed S12 and S9. The 1998 case shown below is the most interesting because it occurred after a 20% sell-off in the DJI, not unlike what occurred this year. In the 1998 case, the DJI rose to a peak in mid-December. That may be what we will see in 2022. As you can see below in Table 3, more than 2/3 of all stocks are above their 65-dma and only 2 of the 49 stock groups we look at still show a a majority of their components below their 65-dma. Looking at the DJI-30' most heavily weighted components, UNH, GS and AMGN, we see they all declined. HD, reflecting the falling rates on the 10-year bonds, did rise. The 5-day moving averages of DIA, SPY and QQQ are all rising, as are their Closing Powers now, but the highest capitalization stock, AAPL has stalled at its falling 65-dma. The conclusion that I reach from this is that we will likely see more profit-taking and a retreat in the DJI. Bulls have factored in, I believe, another positive Jobs Report, which is what we see at +263,000 and flat unemployment. Note the big decline in the ten Year Rates and the Dollar. These reflect the move by the FED as a whole to the more "dovish" camp, one which now takes a "wait and see" approach to Inflation and the need for much higher rates. With the Dollar falling and Oil going mostly sidewise, traders have broken out Gold, Silver and the leveraged NUGT. I suggested buying NUGT yesterday. |
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Charts - 12/1/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81201.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/12-01/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/12-01/BEARISH.htm |
1938 New Buy B21 produces small rally in November and the Peerless Sell.
1998 New Buy B21 rally in November to old highs and then December jump..
Most heavily weighted DJI-30 stock fell nearly 11 today. |
GS, seconf most heavily weighted DJI-30 stock fell nearly 2 today. |
Most heavily weighted stock in SP-500 and QQQ cannot seem to get past its 65-dma and shows a falling 5-dma. |
Heavily weighed AMGN also declined. |
12-1-22 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 34395.01 -194.76 -0.56 Nasdaq 11482.45 +14.45 +0.13 S&P 500 4076.57 -3.54 -0.09 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,295 3,316 3,258 Advances 1,746 2,730 1,927 Declines 1,395 456 1,194 Unchanged 154 130 137 New highs 104 82 78 New lows 25 66 47 Adv. volume* 427,915,023 1,743,976,245 417,040,506 Decl. volume* 492,569,154 194,553,706 217,791,692 Total volume* 935,963,090 1,982,533,133 648,264,729 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.33 0.66 0.83 Block trades* 5,140 6,273 4,099 Adv. volume 2,158,796,657 5,818,888,088 2,109,524,863 Decl. volume 2,297,474,033 640,443,842 1,084,735,148 Total volume 4,527,134,623 6,579,368,595 3,279,726,154 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,920 4,995 4,894 Advances 2,481 3,606 2,841 Declines 2,125 1,137 1,766 Unchanged 314 252 287 New highs 125 133 113 New lows 107 218 170 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.75 1.10 0.79 Block trades 43,305 46,474 38,601 Adv. volume 3,018,176,452 4,917,235,646 2,937,262,423 Decl. volume 1,946,427,460 1,697,748,114 1,441,495,714 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/1/2022 --- Bullish = 2 FAS, OIH Bearish = 3 UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 344.41 -1.74 343.52 36% ------- RED .191 0 ====== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11482.45 14.45 11226.36 88% ------- BLUE .034 -.118 -.084 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 407.38 -.3 402.33 61.9% Bullish RED .155 -.062 .093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 293.72 .36 286.92 85.5% Bullish RED .061 -.105 -.044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 469.65 -.83 467.5 49% ------- RED .098 -.039 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 186.96 -.41 185.58 48% Bearish RED -.023 -.075 -.098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 86.66 -1.54 87.2 28.6% ------- RED .16 .199 .359 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9.23 -.36 9.31 -75.5% Bearish RED .074 .05 .124 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 13.5 -.32 12.86 70.8% Bullish RED .103 .043 .146 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 29.55 .12 28.21 151.8% Bullish ---- .132 -.014 .118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 137.16 .63 133.82 134.9% ------- BLUE .012 .022 .034 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 167.84 3.03 163.22 145.9% Bullish BLUE .244 -.064 .18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.9 .13 15.04 245.5% Bearish RED .008 -.146 -.138 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 302.8 -1.35 299.06 11.2% ------- RED .143 .206 .349 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.9 .08 21.81 213.1% ------- ---- .088 -.034 .054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 81.5 -2.48 82.49 -52% ------- RED -.014 -.138 -.152 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.26 -.35 28.58 -55.8% ------- ---- -.254 -.193 -.447 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.18 -.24 26.64 -41.4% Bullish RED -.465 -.184 -.649 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.9 -.14 8.07 -174.5% ------- RED -.24 -.27 -.51 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 43 -1.36 33.14 1086.3% ------- RED .079 -.234 -.155 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 12/1/22 47 Bullish 2 Bearish 73% of all stocks/ETFs are above their 65-dma. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 1 .923 .923 .923 .923 1 EDU 1 .833 .833 .833 1 .833 MARIJUAN 1 .9 .9 .9 .9 1 ETFS .927 .927 .836 .745 .727 .763 GUNS .923 .923 .769 .769 .846 .846 JETS .923 .923 .846 .538 .692 .769 GOLD .913 .869 .782 .76 .869 .891 INFRA .909 .909 .909 .878 .909 .939 BONDFUND .908 .908 .816 .827 .839 .827 DOWJONES .9 .933 .833 .866 .933 .933 ---- SP-100 .9 .922 .866 .833 .9 .9 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 SP500 .86 .864 .793 .797 .844 .834 ----- NASD-100 .85 .8 .65 .7 .72 .74 ----- FIDSTKS .846 .863 .769 .763 .84 .822 TRANSP .842 .894 .842 .789 .789 .789 INSURANC .84 .88 .84 .8 .84 .84 REGBANKS .84 .88 .88 .88 .88 .84 HIGHPRIC .839 .824 .683 .699 .738 .73 INDEXES .837 .832 .756 .767 .789 .8 RETAIL .829 .872 .851 .851 .893 .914 CHEM .826 .847 .804 .76 .804 .826 RUS-1000 .815 .81 .725 .717 .766 .763 ----- FINANCE .812 .862 .825 .737 .85 .837 SEMI .81 .8 .663 .673 .747 .778 ----- NIFTY .795 .727 .522 .568 .613 .613 UTILITY .789 .842 .684 .71 .763 .71 AUTO .773 .754 .716 .716 .716 .679 MILITARY .769 .73 .692 .73 .769 .73 INDMATER .763 .791 .736 .68 .75 .763 REIT .761 .761 .684 .6 .669 .638 ELECTRON .751 .736 .639 .654 .706 .744 GREEN .736 .578 .631 .578 .631 .684 OILGAS .698 .773 .698 .66 .735 .754 SOFTWARE .696 .678 .571 .607 .607 .571 GAMING .684 .578 .578 .684 .578 .684 COAL .666 .833 .5 .5 .666 .666 COMPUTER .65 .7 .6 .6 .65 .7 HACKERS .625 .5 .5 .562 .562 .562 SOLAR .625 .625 .5 .562 .625 .625 COMODITY .589 .589 .589 .589 .589 .615 HOSPITAL .571 .571 .5 .428 .5 .5 CHINA .56 .6 .4 .2 .18 .28 FOOD .53 .551 .53 .53 .53 .571 =========================================================================================== BIOTECH .468 .468 .415 .393 .421 .426 LOWPRICE .329 .335 .313 .301 .318 .304 |
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Thursday - 5:40 AM - Futures: DJI -46 NASDAQ -25 Data Used: 11/30/2022
11-30-22 DJIA 34589.77 +737.24 +2.18% S&P 500 4080.11 +122.48 +3.09% Nasdaq 11468.00 +484.22 +4.41% |
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The market leapt broadly higher on Wednesday as Fed Chairman Powell consented, in effect, to a 1/2% increase in rates in December instead of another 3/4% jump. He did this even though the CPI and Jobs Report are still out for December. So, Wall Street got what it wanted. Powell also expressed "dovish" caution about raising rates too quickly. He did insist that rates will have to go higher and a turn-downwards by them soon is not going to happen. So, perhaps, Wall Street reacted with too much enthusiasm or perhaps, it was also reacting to news that the Democrats in the House were ready to force rank and file railwaymen to accept strike settlement-terms that they had previously turned down. Recall what I wrote in October 1934, how FDR sent the market up strongly by not backing the 120,000 striking textile workers in the South. How would we look at the market now if Peerless had given a Buy B14 in late October. This should have occurred because of October's reputation as a bear market killer when it reverses. The late October DJI-AROC value above 150% might have been one such determinant. Another would have been the 8 days in October 2022 when the ratio of up volume to low volume OR NYSE advances to decliners was overwhelmingly bullish in eight of the month's days. See below. The DIA chart is now technically bullish. But there are multiple Peerless non-confirmations of the breakout new high made by the DJI. See charts below. GS and HD appear to me to have the most bullish technicals among the highest priced DJI stocks. The SP-500 made a flat-top breakout. This is bullish, but it must not falter now at its 200-day ma. The NASDAQ and QQQ bullishly rose back above their 65-dma, had their 5-day ma turn up and broke their CP downtrends. So, the QQQ short should have been covered. There are a number of bullish MAXCPs that look like attractive Buys. But to be safe with tech stocks, whose ITRS's are still very negative, watch AAPL. It must get back above its price downtrend and its 65-dma like MSFT did today. If it does not, tech stocks and ETFS will likely need to consolidate their big gains. Consider buying NUGT, leveraged gold stocks. See its bullish inverted Head/Shoulders and now positive internals. It is an inflation play.
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Charts - 11/30/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81130.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-30/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-30/BEARISH.htm |
11-30-22 DJIA 34589.77 +737.24 +2.18% S&P 500 4080.11 +122.48 +3.09% Nasdaq 11468.00 +484.22 +4.41% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,316 3,287 3,258 Advances 2,730 1,823 1,927 Declines 456 1,338 1,194 Unchanged 130 126 137 New highs 82 46 78 New lows 66 68 47 Adv. volume* 1,743,976,245 542,845,530 417,040,506 Decl. volume* 194,553,706 230,164,849 217,791,692 Total volume* 1,982,533,133 780,140,619 648,264,729 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.66 0.53 0.83 Block trades* 6,273 4,439 4,099 Adv. volume 5,818,888,088 2,522,639,891 2,109,524,863 Decl. volume 640,443,842 982,347,892 1,084,735,148 Total volume 6,579,368,595 3,546,049,019 3,279,726,154 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,995 4,900 4,894 Advances 3,606 2,326 2,841 Declines 1,137 2,302 1,766 Unchanged 252 272 287 New highs 133 85 113 New lows 218 188 170 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.10 0.58 0.79 Block trades 46,474 40,673 38,601 Adv. volume 4,917,235,646 2,886,611,498 2,937,262,423 Decl. volume 1,697,748,114 1,654,608,950 1,441,495,714 Total volume 6,653,464,723 4,592,837,677 4,431,530,192 Total volume 4,592,837,677 4,271,369,300 4,186,367,635 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/30/2022 --- Bullish = 2 FAS, OIH Bearish = 4 UUP (Dollar), CORN, WEAT, YINN ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 346.15 7.67 341.95 76.2% Bullish BLUE .172 0 ====== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11468 484.22 11285.32 131.7% Bearish BLUE -.034 -.124 -.158 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 407.68 12.45 402.42 97.5% Bullish BLUE .122 -.066 .056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 293.36 12.79 288.82 130% ------- BLUE .02 -.111 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 470.48 10.57 465.1 61.4% Bullish BLUE .12 -.038 .082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 187.37 5 185.19 72.3% Bearish BLUE -.028 -.075 -.103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 88.2 4.14 86.17 173.4% ------- BLUE .159 .15 .309 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9.59 .51 9.37 195.7% Bearish BLUE .071 .073 .144 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 13.82 2.09 13.32 367.1% Bullish BLUE .087 .054 .141 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 29.43 3.82 28.71 264.8% Bullish BLUE .079 -.058 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 136.53 4.26 133.55 93% ------- BLUE -.015 .005 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 164.81 2.08 163.08 84.3% Bullish BLUE .197 -.065 .132 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.77 .4 15.15 -39.2% Bearish RED .102 -.146 -.044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 304.15 4.97 302.13 -96.8% ------- RED .091 .2 .291 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.82 .81 21.96 217.2% ------- BLUE .1 -.043 .057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 83.98 4.49 82.35 153.2% ------- BLUE .033 -.099 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.61 -.23 28.58 -47% Bearish RED -.19 -.158 -.348 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.42 -.22 26.4 30.2% Bullish RED -.392 -.17 -.562 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.04 .12 8.18 -80.8% Bullish BLUE -.151 -.235 -.386 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 44.36 5.3 34.94 1527.3% ------- BLUE -.001 -.267 -.268 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/30/22 Bullish = 46 Bearish = 2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DOWJONES .933 .833 .866 .933 .9 .9 ===== ETFS .927 .836 .745 .727 .763 .69 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 1 .923 GUNS .923 .769 .769 .846 .846 .846 JETS .923 .846 .538 .692 .692 .692 SP-100 .922 .866 .833 .9 .888 .866 INFRA .909 .909 .878 .909 .909 .909 BONDFUND .908 .816 .827 .839 .839 .77 MARIJUAN .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 TRANSP .894 .842 .789 .789 .789 .789 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .833 INSURANC .88 .84 .8 .84 .84 .8 REGBANKS .88 .88 .88 .88 .84 .88 RETAIL .872 .851 .851 .893 .893 .851 GOLD .869 .782 .76 .869 .891 .891 SP500 .864 .793 .797 .84 .828 .806 ====== FIDSTKS .863 .769 .763 .84 .81 .786 FINANCE .862 .825 .737 .837 .837 .787 CHEM .847 .804 .782 .782 .847 .804 UTILITY .842 .684 .71 .763 .71 .657 COAL .833 .5 .5 .666 .666 .666 EDU .833 .833 .833 1 .833 .833 INDEXES .832 .756 .767 .789 .794 .778 HIGHPRIC .824 .683 .699 .738 .722 .695 RUS-1000 .81 .725 .717 .766 .756 .726 NASD-100 .8 .65 .7 .72 .74 .74 ====== SEMI .8 .663 .673 .747 .757 .715 INDMATER .791 .736 .68 .75 .763 .777 OILGAS .773 .698 .66 .735 .754 .754 REIT .761 .676 .607 .676 .63 .653 AUTO .754 .716 .716 .716 .679 .679 ELECTRON .736 .639 .654 .706 .729 .684 MILITARY .73 .692 .73 .769 .73 .73 NIFTY .727 .522 .568 .613 .613 .613 COMPUTER .7 .6 .6 .65 .65 .65 SOFTWARE .678 .589 .607 .607 .571 .589 SOLAR .625 .5 .562 .625 .625 .562 CHINA .6 .4 .2 .18 .28 .22 COMODITY .589 .589 .564 .589 .615 .615 GAMING .578 .578 .631 .631 .631 .631 GREEN .578 .631 .578 .631 .684 .631 HOSPITAL .571 .5 .428 .5 .5 .357 FOOD .551 .53 .51 .53 .571 .571 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS .5 .5 .562 .562 .562 .562 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIOTECH .468 .413 .396 .421 .421 .404 LOWPRICE .335 .315 .304 .318 .296 .285 |
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Wednesday - 5:40 AM - Futures: DJI-+45 NASDAQ +44
Data Used: 11/29/2022
11-29-22 DJIA 33852.53 +3.07 +0.01% S&P 500 3957.63 -6.31 -0.16% Nasdaq 10983.78 -65.72 -0.59% Again weakest |
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Once again on Tuesday the DJI out-performed the NASDAQ and the SP-500 was somewhere in the middle. The QQQ and NASDAQ continue to seriously underperform the DJIA. QQQ's ITRS is -12.8% and the NASDAQ's in -14% for the last 50-trading days. Both are below their 65-dma and have falling 21-day moving averages of Closing Power. This justifies shorting QQQ, especially since the DJI is perched precariously just above its price uptrendline and has broken its steep Closing Power uptrendline. Tomorrow Fed Chairman Power will make comments about his "fight" with inflation. It's true that the FED has now raised short-term and 10-year rates up to 4%. How much higher will they go? How fast will they be hiked with the CPI at about 6%, but falling? Past Feds have raised rates to 4%, 5%, 6% and sometimes much higher. In all the past cases that I know of, the FED has always raised rates higher and higher until they finally get a big sell-off in the DJI. But sometimes, they are happy with a 20% drop in the DJI. This was so, for example, in 1957, 1998 and 2018. In 2023, the DJI dropped a little more. Below are the charts of the yield on the 10-year Treasuries and the DJI for many of the tops since 1965. I will try to add more tomorrow night. What they show is that the market can become precarious even at 4%, but usually rates must go higher before there is a big decline. The tops do not occur at any one level of interest rates. Much depends on how fast they are raised and whether the rates keep going up as the DJI sells off. By both of these measures, the market is now more dangerous. What is saving it are two things: 1) Powell's reputation as a protector of Wall Street and 2) the concentration now of money going in the DJI-30 rather than seemingly risker investments, including bonds now and certainly most tech growth stocks. Being short QQQ and waiting to see what Powell has to say is not a bad way to be now. Watch to see if the SP-500 can hold up above its uptrendline and the NYSE A/D and its uptrendline. |
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Charts - 11/29/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81129.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-29/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-29/BEARISH.htm |
Breadth was positive and the A/D Line uptrend was not
broken. But we do see a serious A/D Line lag behind DJI. This can last for 7 months and sometimes longer. The DJI faces stiff resistance at 34300 given multiple Peerless NCs as it made that new high. Its 5-day ma is rising, but it will need to rally more than 250 to prevent its 5-dma from falling. |
Earlier 10-Year Treasury Charts
and DJI-30 2018- rate hike to 3.23% brought a 19% drop in DJI. 2008- 4.2% took place just before big bear market. 2000- rate hike to 6.8% brought on a long bear market. 1998- rate was 5.7% as DJI was peaking before 19% drop. 1990- rate reached 9.0% 3 mo before DJI fell 26%. 1987- rate hike to 9.66% brought a CRASH. 1982- rate hike to 14% brought on a bear market. 1973- rate hike to 6.4% brought on a bear market. 1969- rate hike to 6.2% brought on a bear market. |
TABLE 1 - BREADTH STATISTICS11-29-22 DJIA 33852.53 3.07 0.01% S&P 500 3957.63 -6.31 -0.16% Nasdaq 10983.78 -65.72 -0.59% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,287 3,295 3,302 Advances 1,823 705 2,368 Declines 1,338 2,475 807 Unchanged 126 115 127 New highs 46 47 76 New lows 68 59 68 Adv. volume* 542,845,530 107,665,489 608,768,731 Decl. volume* 230,164,849 705,164,157 206,693,123 Total volume* 780,140,619 814,664,558 823,459,452 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.53 1.59 1.16 Block trades* 4,439 4,529 4,476 Adv. volume 2,522,639,891 546,617,973 2,749,646,788 Decl. volume 982,347,892 3,055,867,282 1,086,755,838 Total volume 3,546,049,019 3,615,439,244 3,887,991,962 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,900 4,978 4,962 Advances 2,326 1,294 2,855 Declines 2,302 3,443 1,836 Unchanged 272 241 271 New highs 85 118 133 New lows 188 189 262 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.58 0.60 0.76 Block trades 40,673 31,107 28,828 Adv. volume 2,886,611,498 1,625,132,930 2,778,986,988 Decl. volume 1,654,608,950 2,613,048,711 1,355,247,335 Total volume 4,592,837,677 4,271,369,300 4,186,367,635 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/29/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 UUP (Dollar), CORN, YINN ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 338.48 -.01 340.96 21% ------- BLUE .102 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10983.78 -65.72 11174.41 -18.3% Bearish RED -.074 -.139 -.213 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 395.23 -.68 399.9 8% Bearish RED .026 -.074 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 280.57 -2.14 285.95 -23.1% Bearish RED -.041 -.127 -.168 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 459.91 1.5 464.79 27.9% ------- BLUE .044 -.044 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 182.37 .53 184.71 -10.6% Bearish BLUE -.065 -.081 -.146 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 84.06 1.49 85.25 77.8% Bearish BLUE .04 .071 .111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9.08 .08 9.23 285.9% Bearish ---- .023 -.045 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 11.73 -.11 12.9 -63.7% ------- RED .018 -.135 -.117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 25.61 -.76 27.98 -154.3% ------- RED .016 -.178 -.162 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 132.27 -.62 134.05 -27.3% Bearish RED -.096 -.005 -.101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 162.73 .8 162.07 26.2% Bullish ---- .103 -.048 .055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.37 .33 15.89 -87.9% Bearish ---- .092 -.147 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 299.18 6.8 309.97 -23.6% ------- BLUE .106 .178 .284 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.01 .32 21.87 94.1% ------- BLUE .037 -.054 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 79.49 -.97 81.49 -81% ------- RED -.023 -.148 -.171 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.84 .05 28.88 -38.2% ------- ---- -.147 -.11 -.257 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.64 .01 26.26 56.7% Bullish ---- -.371 -.108 -.479 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.92 .02 8.17 -191.1% Bullish ---- -.031 -.155 -.186 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 39.06 5.06 33.68 636.4% ------- BLUE -.029 -.35 -.379 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/29/22 Bullish = 42 Bearish = 3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 1 .923 .846 INFRA .909 .878 .909 .909 .909 .848 MARIJUAN .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .888 .833 .833 REGBANKS .88 .88 .88 .84 .88 .8 SP-100 .866 .833 .9 .888 .866 .811 RETAIL .851 .851 .893 .893 .851 .829 JETS .846 .538 .692 .692 .692 .692 TRANSP .842 .789 .789 .789 .789 .789 INSURANC .84 .8 .84 .84 .8 .8 ETFS .836 .745 .727 .763 .709 .709 DOWJONES .833 .866 .933 .9 .9 .8 ==== EDU .833 .833 1 .833 .833 .833 FINANCE .825 .737 .837 .825 .787 .762 BONDFUND .816 .827 .839 .839 .758 .54 CHEM .804 .782 .804 .826 .826 .76 SP500 .793 .797 .84 .824 .806 .749 ===== GOLD .782 .76 .869 .891 .891 .804 FIDSTKS .769 .763 .84 .81 .775 .71 GUNS .769 .769 .846 .846 .769 .692 INDEXES .756 .767 .789 .794 .772 .74 INDMATER .736 .68 .75 .763 .777 .708 RUS-1000 .725 .717 .766 .756 .725 .676 AUTO .716 .716 .716 .679 .679 .641 OILGAS .698 .66 .735 .754 .754 .622 MILITARY .692 .73 .769 .73 .73 .73 UTILITY .684 .71 .763 .71 .631 .552 HIGHPRIC .683 .699 .738 .722 .687 .644 REIT .676 .6 .684 .638 .638 .584 SEMI .663 .673 .747 .757 .705 .694 NASD-100 .65 .7 .72 .74 .74 .68 ===== ELECTRON .639 .654 .706 .729 .676 .676 GREEN .631 .578 .631 .684 .631 .526 COMPUTER .6 .6 .65 .65 .65 .6 COMODITY .589 .564 .564 .615 .589 .589 SOFTWARE .589 .625 .607 .571 .589 .535 GAMING .578 .631 .578 .684 .631 .578 FOOD .53 .51 .51 .571 .551 .53 NIFTY .522 .568 .613 .613 .613 .522 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COAL .5 .5 .666 .666 .666 .833 HACKERS .5 .562 .562 .562 .562 .562 HOSPITAL .5 .428 .5 .5 .357 .428 SOLAR .5 .562 .625 .625 .562 .5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIOTECH .413 .393 .424 .421 .402 .396 CHINA .4 .2 .18 .28 .22 .22 LOWPRICE .315 .307 .321 .296 .285 .277 |
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Tuesday - 6:18 AM - Futures: DJI-88 NASDAQ +7
Data Used: 11/28/2022
11-28-22 DJIA 33849.46 -497.57 -1.45% Nasdaq 11049.50 -176.86 -1.58% S&P 500 3963.94 -62.18 -1.54% |
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Goldman Sachs
announced at the opening on Monday that the market looked bearish and that they were not buyers. That, not the FED, poured cold water on the 20% jump in the DJI since October 3rd. For us, what was significant were the multiple non-confirmations and extremely low volume on Friday's recovery high. On Monday, the big banks computerized day traders took their cue from GS and failed to come in after a weak openig and support the market. This caused GS to break its Tiger Opening and Closing uptrends. Now without Professional buying, I think the odds favor the leading DJI-30 stocks making new 5-day lows and the key Closing Powers breaking their uptrends. UNH is the most heavily weighted DJI stock. That may try to hold the DJI-30 up. We will have to watch it. The NASDAQ and QQQ (which we are short) have been seriously under-performing DIA and the DJIA by more than 11%. They fell back below their 65-dma. So, lets see if there is a further drop by them. Watch the biggest NASDAQ stocks shown below. We do need to see follow-through weakness from Monday's orchestrated decline. Hold back taking new positions for now. I consider the older, unreversed Peerless Sell signals to be warnings. But the odds do favor another rally attempt as this week's Jobs Report unfurls another positive report which will make bulls hold their faith in a "soft landing" and a bullish third year in the four year Presidential cycle. On the other hand, a weak December would wreck these hopes. As always, we will be watching the NYSE A/D Line, which is still in an uprend, and the 21-day ma direction of DIA's CLosing Power, which is still rising. Unless these breakdown and change direction, expect the decline to be shallow in early December. If they do breakdown, global recession and a retest of the year's lows will seem probable. Stay short QQQ and some of the bearish MINCPs for now. |
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Charts - 11/28/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Insurance-Stocks Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81128.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-28/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-28/BEARISH.htm |
Table 111-28-22 DJIA 33849.46 -497.57 -1.45 Nasdaq 11049.50 -176.86 -1.58 S&P 500 3963.94 -62.18 -1.54 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,295 3,177 3,294 Advances 705 1,934 1,471 Declines 2,475 1,079 1,698 Unchanged 115 164 125 New highs 47 63 53 New lows 59 30 59 Adv. volume* 107,665,489 204,333,292 325,346,059 Decl. volume* 705,164,157 135,101,819 471,335,086 Total volume* 814,664,558 353,248,316 802,776,744 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.59 1.32 1.35 Block trades* 4,529 3,216 4,469 Adv. volume 546,617,973 922,223,663 1,491,846,635 Decl. volume 3,055,867,282 676,817,477 2,323,874,936 Total volume 3,615,439,244 1,681,324,114 3,850,694,704 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,978 4,579 4,920 Advances 1,294 2,478 1,794 Declines 3,443 1,834 2,869 Unchanged 241 267 257 New highs 118 92 99 New lows 189 96 278 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.60 1.56 1.58 Block trades 31,107 20,248 23,477 Adv. volume 1,625,132,930 1,011,263,126 1,116,987,778 Decl. volume 2,613,048,711 1,170,550,882 2,823,066,060 Total volume 4,271,369,300 2,212,266,778 3,977,137,459 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/28/2022 --- Bullish = 0 Bearish = 3 UUP (Dollar), CORN, YINN ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 338.49 -5.03 337.05 16.5% ------- RED .141 ----- ------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11049.5 -176.86 11024.51 -43.2% Bearish RED -.012 -.134 -.146 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 395.91 -6.42 394.59 -1.5% Bearish RED .076 -.072 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 282.71 -4.21 281.89 -36.9% Bearish RED .018 -.122 -.104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 458.41 -9.09 457.33 1.5% ------- RED .094 -.041 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 181.84 -3.74 182.76 -51% Bearish RED .008 -.083 -.075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 82.57 -4.63 82.74 37.2% ------- RED .079 .078 .157 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9 -.31 8.56 166% ------- RED .056 -.024 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 11.84 -1.02 11.89 -256.1% Bullish RED .071 -.117 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 26.37 -1.84 26.46 -180.2% Bullish RED .089 -.135 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 132.89 -.93 133 -31.8% ------- RED -.016 -.018 -.034 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 161.93 -1.29 161.88 -26.4% Bullish RED .128 -.06 .068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.04 0 15.64 -213.1% Bearish BLUE .087 -.173 -.086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 292.38 -6.68 300.6 -263.6% ------- BLUE .097 .151 .248 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 21.69 -.12 21.6 -61.8% ------- RED .031 -.081 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 80.46 -2.03 80.81 -64.2% Bullish RED .053 -.152 -.099 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.79 .21 29.06 -3.5% Bearish BLUE -.169 -.12 -.289 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.63 -.01 26.34 15.1% Bullish BLUE -.362 -.116 -.478 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 7.9 -.17 8.23 -226.1% Bullish RED -.016 -.194 -.21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34 .86 34.72 -351.3% ------- BLUE .029 -.445 -.416 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/28/22 Bullish = 44 Bearish = 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 1 .923 .846 1 MARIJUAN .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 1 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .888 .833 .833 .833 REGBANKS .88 .88 .84 .88 .8 .8 INFRA .878 .909 .909 .909 .848 .848 DOWJONES .866 .933 .9 .9 .8 .866 RETAIL .851 .893 .893 .851 .829 .893 EDU .833 1 .833 .833 .833 .833 SP-100 .833 .9 .888 .866 .8 .844 BONDFUND .827 .839 .839 .758 .54 .413 INSURANC .8 .84 .84 .8 .8 .8 SP500 .797 .84 .824 .802 .745 .757 TRANSP .789 .789 .789 .789 .789 .789 CHEM .782 .804 .847 .804 .782 .717 GUNS .769 .846 .846 .769 .692 .692 INDEXES .767 .789 .794 .772 .735 .778 FIDSTKS .763 .84 .81 .775 .71 .757 GOLD .76 .869 .891 .891 .782 .826 ETFS .745 .727 .763 .709 .727 .727 FINANCE .737 .837 .825 .775 .762 .75 MILITARY .73 .769 .73 .73 .73 .692 RUS-1000 .717 .766 .756 .725 .673 .686 AUTO .716 .716 .679 .679 .641 .641 UTILITY .71 .763 .71 .631 .552 .5 NASD-100 .7 .72 .74 .74 .68 .7 HIGHPRIC .699 .738 .722 .687 .636 .691 INDMATER .68 .75 .763 .777 .708 .694 SEMI .673 .747 .757 .705 .684 .715 OILGAS .66 .735 .754 .754 .632 .726 ELECTRON .654 .706 .729 .676 .669 .691 GAMING .631 .578 .631 .684 .578 .631 SOFTWARE .625 .625 .571 .589 .535 .553 COMPUTER .6 .65 .65 .65 .6 .7 REIT .6 .676 .646 .646 .561 .553 GREEN .578 .631 .684 .631 .526 .578 NIFTY .568 .613 .613 .613 .522 .636 COMODITY .564 .564 .589 .589 .589 .589 HACKERS .562 .562 .562 .562 .562 .437 SOLAR .562 .625 .625 .562 .5 .562 JETS .538 .692 .692 .692 .692 .769 FOOD .51 .51 .551 .551 .53 .551 ============================================================================================= COAL .5 .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 ============================================================================================= HOSPITAL .428 .5 .5 .357 .428 .5 BIOTECH .393 .421 .424 .402 .391 .413 LOWPRICE .307 .324 .299 .285 .277 .315 CHINA .2 .18 .28 .22 .22 .38 |
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Monday - 6:00 AM - Futures: DJI-183 NASDAQ -79 Data Used:
11/25/2022
11-25-22 DJIA 34347.03 152.97 0.45% S&P 500 4026.12 -1.14 -0.03% Nasdaq 11226.36 -58.96 -0.52% NASDAQ is much weaker. |
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With the DJI
almost straight-away up 20% from its lows, its new high would be vulnerable even if the new high was confirmed by breadth, the P-I and Accumulation Index. But those are all bearishly lagging. In addition, with the NASDAQ down more than the DJI rose on Friday, we are alerted again to the serious tech divergences from the blue chips. More than that, volume was extremely low on Friday. This highlights the very bearish-looking OBV-Line. In addition, let me mention that our Tiger chart of Insurance stocks gave a red sell. This has a very good track record for stocks generally and seasonality is flat for the next two weeks. So, it would be surprising if Professionals can, or even choose to try to, hold up the weakness in today's opening. Take long profits across-the-board and sell short QQQ, which has resumed its serious under-performance of the DJI. See below the how the biggest tech stocks show very negative ITRS (50-day relative strength readings compared to the DJI) readings and are mostly below, or will with a down day today, break below their 65-dma. |
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Charts - 11/25/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81125.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-25/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-25/BEARISH.htm |
11-25-22 DJIA 34347.03 152.97 0.45% S&P 500 4026.12 -1.14 -0.03% Nasdaq 11226.36 -58.96 -0.52% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,177 3,258 3,302 Advances 1,934 1,927 1,902 Declines 1,079 1,194 1,250 Unchanged 164 137 150 New highs 63 78 70 New lows 30 47 42 Adv. volume* 204,333,292 417,040,506 593,951,208 Decl. volume* 135,101,819 217,791,692 352,431,815 Total volume* 353,248,316 648,264,729 952,620,621 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.32 0.83 1.13 Block trades* 3,216 4,099 5,055 Adv. volume 938,464,720 2,109,524,863 2,300,622,971 Decl. volume 683,093,034 1,084,735,148 1,704,522,327 Total volume 1,706,460,938 3,279,726,154 4,037,364,466 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,579 4,894 4,932 Advances 2,478 2,841 2,465 Declines 1,834 1,766 2,192 Unchanged 267 287 275 New highs 92 113 71 New lows 96 170 186 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.56 0.79 1.45 Block trades 20,248 38,601 24,682 Adv. volume 999,298,080 2,937,262,423 1,788,623,043 Decl. volume 1,154,270,427 1,441,495,714 2,304,629,511 Total volume 2,184,081,653 4,431,530,192 4,175,421,469 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/25/2022 --- Bullish = 0 Bearish = 3 UUP (Dollar), CORN, YINN ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 343.52 1.57 337.37 109.5% Bullish BLUE .132 ---- ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11226.36 -58.96 11146.06 36.5% ------- RED -.03 -.135 -.165 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 402.33 -.09 396.03 101.8% ------- BLUE .065 -.076 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 286.92 -1.9 284.82 37% ------- RED .001 -.121 -.12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 467.5 2.4 458.27 132.8% Bullish BLUE .091 -.047 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 185.58 .39 183.72 82.7% Bearish BLUE -.017 -.085 -.102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 87.2 1.03 81.94 421.6% ------- BLUE .055 .101 .156 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9.31 -.06 8.7 485.2% ------- ---- .05 -.039 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.86 -.46 12.49 194.5% Bullish RED .046 -.027 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 28.21 -.5 27.37 174.2% Bullish BLUE .06 -.092 -.032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 133.82 .27 133.74 20.2% ------- BLUE .013 -.028 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 163.22 .14 162.79 -21.5% Bullish BLUE .168 -.054 .114 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.04 -.11 15.7 -299.9% Bearish RED .048 -.178 -.13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 299.06 -3.07 308.41 -194.8% ------- RED .035 .129 .164 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 21.81 -.15 21.96 -86.7% ------- ---- .041 -.062 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 82.49 .14 81.51 -8% ------- BLUE .085 -.136 -.051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.58 0 28.81 -26% Bearish RED -.157 -.135 -.292 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.64 .24 26.55 13.2% Bullish BLUE -.397 -.121 -.518 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.07 -.11 8.27 -145.8% ------- RED -.017 -.164 -.181 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 33.14 -1.8 36.43 -975.4% ------- RED -.014 -.501 -.515
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/25/22 Bullish = 45 Bearish = 3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 EDU 1 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 DOWJONES .933 .9 .9 .8 .866 .833 DJI-13 .923 1 .923 .846 1 .923 INFRA .909 .909 .909 .848 .848 .848 MARIJUAN .9 .9 .9 .9 1 .9 SP-100 .9 .888 .866 .8 .833 .8 RETAIL .893 .893 .851 .829 .851 .829 HOMEBLDG .888 .888 .833 .833 .833 .833 REGBANKS .88 .84 .88 .8 .8 .8 GOLD .869 .891 .891 .782 .826 .826 GUNS .846 .846 .769 .692 .692 .692 FIDSTKS .84 .81 .775 .71 .745 .71 INSURANC .84 .84 .8 .8 .8 .8 SP500 .84 .824 .802 .741 .747 .705 BONDFUND .839 .839 .758 .54 .379 .333 FINANCE .837 .825 .775 .75 .75 .737 CHEM .804 .847 .826 .76 .739 .695 INDEXES .789 .794 .772 .735 .767 .756 TRANSP .789 .789 .789 .789 .789 .684 MILITARY .769 .73 .73 .73 .692 .692 RUS-1000 .766 .756 .725 .673 .68 .648 UTILITY .763 .71 .631 .552 .447 .342 INDMATER .75 .763 .777 .708 .68 .652 SEMI .747 .757 .705 .684 .705 .736 HIGHPRIC .738 .722 .687 .636 .683 .656 OILGAS .735 .754 .754 .632 .716 .726 ETFS .727 .763 .709 .727 .745 .763 NASD-100 .72 .74 .74 .68 .7 .69 AUTO .716 .679 .679 .641 .641 .66 ELECTRON .706 .729 .676 .669 .684 .706 JETS .692 .692 .692 .692 .769 .692 REIT .676 .638 .653 .569 .538 .469 COAL .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 .833 COMPUTER .65 .65 .65 .6 .7 .7 GREEN .631 .684 .631 .526 .526 .526 SOFTWARE .625 .589 .589 .535 .535 .571 SOLAR .625 .625 .562 .5 .5 .625 NIFTY .613 .613 .613 .522 .636 .636 GAMING .578 .631 .631 .631 .631 .631 COMODITY .564 .589 .564 .589 .589 .538 HACKERS .562 .562 .562 .562 .437 .5 FOOD .51 .551 .53 .53 .551 .51 HOSPITAL .5 .5 .357 .428 .5 .357 BIOTECH .421 .421 .404 .391 .41 .41 LOWPRICE .324 .301 .288 .277 .307 .296 CHINA .18 .28 .22 .22 .38 .46 |
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Friday
- 6:10 AM - Futures: DJI+70 NASDAQ -20 Data Used: 11/23/2022
11-23-22 DJIA 34194.06 95.96 +0.28 S&P 500 4027.26 23.68 +0.59 Nasdaq 11285.32 110.91 +0.99 |
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The Thanksgiving
rally came on schedule and has taken the DJI up very close to its flat resistance at 34300. A breakout above this level should be expected if we go by its current momentum and seasonality. The DJI's price uptrend remains in tact. Its Closing Power is still rising and 90% of the DJI-30 stocks are above their individual 30-week moving averages. But such a breakout will not be confirmed by two important tools, OBV and the NYSE A/D Line. Will these non-confirmations be enough to stop the rally we are seeing based on hopes that the FED will curb its hawkishness and not push up rates by 3/4% or even 1/2%. Much of the press is putting pressure on the FED not to tighten too much when they meet next on December 14th. The optimists in this regard have caused the Ten-Year rate to fall below 4% and our Tiger Bond Index shows bond traders are bottom-feeding and have pushed this Index above its 65-dma. Look also at how the DJI-Utilities have bullishly completed an inverted head and shoulders pattern. All this would become more convincing if Home Depot (a very high priced DJI-30 stock, shown below) moves up again. There remains a big divide between how the DJI is going and much of the rest of the market, especially the big tech stocks shown below. And if we compare the NYSE and the NASDAQ we see the same divergengenc. The number of new highs is greater than the number of news on the NYSE but not the NASDAQ. A peace in the Ukraine would be very bullish since much of the inflation traces back to the Russian invasion. But now the Ukraine is demanding Putin resign and turn back control of the Crimea to Ukraine. This will cause a diplomatic settlement further away. So, we are waiting to see what the FED does. They may raise rates by 1/2% and offer tough anti-Inflation talk because that is what is expected of them. They may do this simply because they have decided that they can't allow stock market traders to become too bullish, because that itself is inflationary. One would think this will hurt retail sales and also the market. But word of that choice by the FED has not yet gotten out. At this point, we should simply watch the DJI's price uptrend. As long as it is rising, I think we should expect a "soft landing" and Powell's relenting in regard to more big rate increases. . But if the price uptrend is broken, our traders should take profits, judging just by the way the late July rally quickly ended. At that point, we will add more short sales. At this stage, it is usually not a good idea to buy laggards. NVDA is interesting in this regard because the turns up in semi-conductors can be very profitable. Buying it it now and holding only for as long as it stays above its 65-dma will keep the risk minimized. The negativity of QQQ's ITRS prevents me from buying it because it has closed above its 65-dma. |
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Charts - 11/23/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81123.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-23/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-23/BEARISH.htm |
11-23-22 DJIA 34194.06 95.96 0.28 S&P 500 4027.26 23.68 0.59 Nasdaq Composite 11285.32 110.91 0.99 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,258 3,302 3,296 Advances 1,927 2,368 1,083 Declines 1,194 807 2,083 Unchanged 137 127 130 New highs 78 76 53 New lows 47 68 55 (low) Adv. volume* 417,040,506 608,768,731 161,155,710 Decl. volume* 217,791,692 206,693,123 690,638,318 Total volume* 648,264,729 823,459,452 857,017,511 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.83 1.16 2.67 Block trades* 4,099 4,476 4,828 Adv. volume 2,109,524,863 2,749,646,788 672,090,579 Decl. volume 1,084,735,148 1,086,755,838 3,453,473,989 Total volume 3,279,726,154 3,887,991,962 4,165,326,793 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,894 4,962 4,880 Advances 2,841 2,855 1,425 Declines 1,766 1,836 3,176 Unchanged 287 271 279 New highs 113 133 68 New lows 170 262 166 (high) Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.79 0.76 1.29 Block trades 38,601 28,828 27,009 Adv. volume 2,937,262,423 2,778,986,988 1,171,755,434 Decl. volume 1,441,495,714 1,355,247,335 3,376,238,946 Total volume 4,431,530,192 4,186,367,635 4,585,190,861 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/23/2022 --- Bullish = 1 Bearish = 3 UUP (Dollar), CORN, YINN ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 341.95 .99 336.1 87.1% Bullish BLUE .081 0 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11285.32 110.91 11144.96 45.7% ------- BLUE -.06 -.133 -.193 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 402.42 2.52 394.24 88% ------- BLUE .015 -.076 -.061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 288.82 2.87 284.81 59.4% ------- BLUE -.037 -.12 -.157 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 465.1 .31 455.28 79.4% Bullish BLUE .057 -.048 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 185.19 .48 182.54 25.6% ------- BLUE -.06 -.084 -.144 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 86.17 .92 80.18 283.6% ------- BLUE -.004 .108 .104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9.37 .14 8.45 606.8% ------- BLUE .024 -.015 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 13.32 .42 12.37 481.5% Bullish BLUE .048 -.027 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 28.71 .73 27.25 286.3% Bullish BLUE .01 -.138 -.128 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 133.55 -.5 133.28 -24.7% ------- RED .003 -.018 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 163.08 1.01 163.92 -62.5% Bullish BLUE .138 -.063 .075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.15 -.74 15.98 -438.8% ------- RED .1 -.198 -.098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 302.13 -7.84 311 -164.5% Bullish RED .052 .12 .172 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 21.96 .09 22.19 -165.4% ------- BLUE .115 -.056 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 82.35 .86 82.62 49.6% ------- BLUE .063 -.164 -.101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.58 -.3 28.73 -6.9% Bearish RED -.197 -.123 -.32 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.4 .14 26.57 -32.1% Bullish BLUE -.423 -.129 -.552 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.18 .01 8.31 -144.9% Bullish BLUE .016 -.175 -.159 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.94 1.26 40.16 -353.4% ------- BLUE .044 -.462 -.418 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/23/22 Bullish = 45 Bearish = 3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 ==== COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 1 .923 .846 1 .846 .846 INFRA .909 .909 .848 .848 .848 .848 DOWJONES .9 .9 .8 .866 .8 .8 ==== MARIJUAN .9 .9 .9 1 .9 .9 RETAIL .893 .851 .829 .851 .829 .744 GOLD .891 .891 .782 .826 .826 .869 HOMEBLDG .888 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 SP-100 .888 .866 .8 .833 .777 .766 CHEM .847 .826 .782 .717 .717 .76 GUNS .846 .769 .692 .692 .692 .692 INSURANC .84 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 REGBANKS .84 .88 .8 .8 .8 .8 BONDFUND .839 .758 .54 .379 .298 .356 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 FINANCE .825 .775 .75 .737 .737 .75 SP500 .824 .802 .741 .743 .701 .715 ===== FIDSTKS .81 .775 .71 .745 .698 .71 INDEXES .794 .772 .735 .767 .745 .745 TRANSP .789 .789 .789 .789 .684 .684 ETFS .763 .709 .727 .745 .781 .8 INDMATER .763 .777 .708 .68 .652 .708 SEMI .757 .705 .684 .705 .715 .684 RUS-1000 .756 .725 .673 .68 .639 .665 ==== OILGAS .754 .754 .632 .716 .726 .726 NASD-100 .74 .74 .68 .7 .67 .66 ===== MILITARY .73 .73 .73 .692 .692 .692 ELECTRON .729 .676 .669 .684 .691 .684 HIGHPRIC .722 .687 .636 .683 .636 .691 UTILITY .71 .631 .552 .447 .342 .394 JETS .692 .692 .692 .769 .692 .769 GREEN .684 .631 .526 .526 .526 .631 AUTO .679 .679 .641 .641 .66 .641 COAL .666 .666 .833 .833 .833 .833 COMPUTER .65 .65 .6 .7 .65 .65 REIT .638 .646 .576 .546 .453 .515 GAMING .631 .631 .578 .684 .631 .578 SOLAR .625 .562 .5 .5 .625 .625 NIFTY .613 .613 .522 .636 .613 .568 COMODITY .589 .564 .564 .589 .538 .692 SOFTWARE .589 .607 .535 .535 .553 .589 HACKERS .562 .562 .562 .437 .5 .5 FOOD .551 .53 .51 .551 .51 .653 =============================================================================================== HOSPITAL .5 .357 .428 .5 .357 .428 =============================================================================================== BIOTECH .421 .402 .393 .41 .407 .399 LOWPRICE .301 .29 .279 .307 .293 .288 CHINA .28 .22 .22 .38 .44 .32 |
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Wednesday
- 6:10 AM - Futures: DJI -20 NASDAQ +0 Data Used:
11/22/2022
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
11-21-22 Chg %Chg DJIA 34098.10 397.82 1.18% S&P 500 4003.58 53.64 1.36% Nasdaq 11174.41 149.90 1.36% |
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Thanksgiving
positiveness is to be appreciated everywhere, including on Wall Street. The DJIA is trying to breakout past the flat, well-tested resistance level at 34300. Any pullback will be modest, I suspect. See in Table 3 below that 90% of the DJI-30 stocks are above their 65-dma. Only Big banks, among the most important groups, show a better score. And the heaviest weighted (highest priced per share) DJI stocks now show no laggards. Even MSFT closed slightly above the 65-dma barrier, as did highest capitalization stock AAPL. It is not just seasonality that is lifting the market. Today the Ten-Year rates fell further below 4% and the Tiger Index of Bond Funds rose above its 65-dma. QQQ and the NASDAQ closed a little above that barrier. But their 65-dma are still falling. Wednesday should be a quiet day. The next Hotline with be Thursday night. |
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Charts - 11/22/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81122.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-22/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-22/BEARISH.htm |
DJIA - 6 month chart
#1 most heavily weighted DJI-30 stock |
#2 most heavily weighted DJI-30 stock |
11-22-22 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 34098.10 397.82 1.18 S&P 500 4003.58 53.64 1.36 Nasdaq Composite 11174.41 149.90 1.36 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,302 3,294 3,317 Advances 2,368 1,471 2,428 Declines 807 1,698 777 Unchanged 127 125 112 New highs 76 53 65 New lows 68 59 28 Adv. volume* 608,768,731 325,346,059 751,896,328 Decl. volume* 206,693,123 471,335,086 255,084,232 Total volume* 823,459,452 802,776,744 1,017,531,692 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.16 1.35 1.02 Block trades* 4,476 4,469 5,300 Adv. volume 2,749,646,788 1,491,846,635 3,724,125,257 Decl. volume 1,086,755,838 2,323,874,936 1,221,081,621 Total volume 3,887,991,962 3,850,694,704 5,015,316,847 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,962 4,920 4,932 Advances 2,855 1,794 3,127 Declines 1,836 2,869 1,556 Unchanged 271 257 249 New highs 133 99 107 New lows 262 278 124 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.76 1.58 0.74 Block trades 28,828 23,477 34,962 Adv. volume 2,778,986,988 1,116,987,778 4,071,404,430 Decl. volume 1,355,247,335 2,823,066,060 1,489,469,152 Total volume 4,186,367,635 3,977,137,459 5,617,310,541 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/22/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 CORN, YINN ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 340.96 3.91 336.07 70.6% Bullish BLUE .115 0 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11174.41 149.9 11183.66 -82.4% ------- BLUE -.043 -.133 -.176 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 399.9 5.31 395.45 17.8% Bullish BLUE .029 -.076 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 285.95 4.06 285.44 -60.3% ------- BLUE -.022 -.12 -.142 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 464.79 7.46 457.82 1.5% Bullish BLUE .099 -.047 .052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 184.71 1.95 184.25 -77.1% ------- BLUE -.033 -.08 -.113 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 85.25 2.51 81.5 165.1% ------- BLUE .039 .088 .127 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9.23 .67 8.32 -69.2% Bullish BLUE .037 -.035 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.9 1.01 12.13 -386.5% Bullish BLUE .064 -.027 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 27.98 1.52 27.15 -60.4% Bullish BLUE .047 -.148 -.101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 134.05 1.05 134.21 -39.6% ------- BLUE .04 -.003 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 162.07 .19 165.12 -104.7% Bullish RED .092 -.072 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.89 .25 16.55 -294.3% ------- ---- .111 -.141 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 309.97 9.37 312.28 -145.8% ------- BLUE .062 .198 .26 +++ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 21.87 .27 22.69 -262.4% ------- RED .086 -.063 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 81.49 .68 81.54 -20.2% Bullish BLUE .081 -.153 -.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.88 -.18 28.62 34.7% Bearish RED -.191 -.113 -.304 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.26 -.08 26.57 -69.7% Bullish RED -.399 -.141 -.54 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.17 -.06 8.42 -203.6% Bullish RED -.003 -.161 -.164 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 33.68 -1.04 37.52 -850.8% ------- BLUE .004 -.482 -.478 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/22/22 Bullish = 45 Bearish = 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .846 1 .846 .846 .846 INFRA .909 .848 .848 .848 .848 .818 DOWJONES .9 .8 .866 .8 .8 .833 ====== MARIJUAN .9 .9 1 .9 .9 1 GOLD .891 .782 .826 .826 .847 .847 REGBANKS .88 .8 .8 .8 .8 .84 SP-100 .866 .8 .833 .777 .766 .844 RETAIL .851 .829 .851 .829 .723 .872 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 HOMEBLDG .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 CHEM .826 .782 .739 .695 .76 .782 SP500 .802 .741 .743 .696 .717 .763 ===== INSURANC .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .76 TRANSP .789 .789 .789 .684 .684 .842 INDMATER .777 .708 .68 .652 .666 .75 FIDSTKS .775 .71 .745 .698 .704 .792 FINANCE .775 .75 .737 .725 .737 .8 INDEXES .772 .735 .767 .745 .745 .794 GUNS .769 .692 .692 .692 .615 .846 BONDFUND .758 .54 .379 .298 .367 .206 OILGAS .754 .632 .716 .726 .726 .754 NASD-100 .74 .68 .7 .67 .66 .72 ===== MILITARY .73 .73 .692 .692 .653 .769 RUS-1000 .725 .673 .68 .639 .659 .717 ===== ETFS .709 .727 .745 .781 .818 .836 SEMI .705 .684 .705 .715 .673 .789 JETS .692 .692 .769 .692 .692 .923 HIGHPRIC .687 .636 .683 .636 .683 .757 AUTO .679 .641 .641 .66 .641 .754 ELECTRON .676 .669 .684 .691 .676 .744 COAL .666 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 COMPUTER .65 .6 .7 .65 .65 .7 REIT .646 .569 .553 .461 .484 .561 GAMING .631 .578 .631 .684 .578 .631 GREEN .631 .526 .526 .526 .631 .684 UTILITY .631 .552 .447 .342 .394 .368 NIFTY .613 .522 .636 .613 .568 .681 SOFTWARE .607 .553 .535 .553 .589 .625 COMODITY .564 .564 .564 .538 .692 .743 HACKERS .562 .562 .437 .5 .5 .5 SOLAR .562 .5 .5 .625 .625 .687 FOOD .53 .51 .53 .51 .653 .734 ================================================================================================ BIOTECH .402 .391 .413 .407 .396 .443 HOSPITAL .357 .428 .5 .357 .428 .571 LOWPRICE .29 .282 .31 .293 .282 .321 CHINA .22 .22 .38 .44 .32 .52 |
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Tuesday - 5:50 AM - Futures: DJI +113 NASDAQ +27
Data Used: 11/21/2022
11-21-22 Chg %Chg DJIA 33700.28 -45.41 -0.13% S&P 500 3949.94 -15.40 -0.39% Nasdaq 11024.51 -121.55 -1.09% |
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Seasonal strength during the week of Thanksgiving is probably too strong to stay short QQQ this week. Lets's cover it. The best of the MAXCPs that dipped a little on Monday should again be bought. Stay short some of the bearish MINCPs. They are seriously weak. The DJI's rally may take off if we get hints from the Fed minutes that there may be some reduction in the next rate hike, in December. The inverted head and shoulders emerging pattern in the DJI-Utilities offers us some reason to be optimistic. At this time, 61% of the 6,000 stocks we look at each nght are above their 65-dma. See in Table 3 below that 44 of the 49 stocks groups show a majority of their components are above their 65-dma. It is the big tech stocks like TSLA, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG and Facebook that are holding back QQQ. In the thinner holiday trading, professionals may try to run in some of the shorts in these stocks. AMZN FB GOOG MSFT TSLA |
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Charts - 11/21/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Russell-1000 Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81121.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KO KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-21/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-21/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1
Breadth Statistics11-21-22 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33700.28 -45.41 -0.13% S&P 500 3949.94 -15.40 -0.39% Nasdaq 11024.51 -121.55 -1.09% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,294 3,302 3,318 Advances 1,471 1,902 941 Declines 1,698 1,250 2,267 Unchanged 125 150 110 New highs 53 70 54 New lows 59 42 24 Adv. volume* 325,346,059 593,951,208 270,201,131 Decl. volume* 471,335,086 352,431,815 664,686,186 Total volume* 802,776,744 952,620,621 940,874,944 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.35 1.13 0.95 Block trades* 4,469 5,055 5,079 Adv. volume 1,491,846,635 2,300,622,971 1,382,758,256 Decl. volume 2,323,874,936 1,704,522,327 3,149,084,133 Total volume 3,850,694,704 4,037,364,466 4,561,933,371 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,920 4,932 4,994 Advances 1,794 2,465 1,801 Declines 2,869 2,192 2,900 Unchanged 257 275 293 New highs 99 71 83 New lows 278 186 113 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.58 1.45 1.08 Block trades 23,477 24,682 29,155 Adv. volume 1,116,987,778 1,788,623,043 1,809,793,081 Decl. volume 2,823,066,060 2,304,629,511 3,155,519,593 Total volume 3,977,137,459 4,175,421,469 5,004,060,260 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/21/2022 --- Bullish = 0 Bearish = 3 CORN, YINN ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 337.05 -.32 336.21 19% Bullish RED .101 0 .101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11024.51 -121.55 11358.41 -76.6% ------- RED -.045 -.14 -.185 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 394.59 -1.44 398.49 -6.7% Bullish RED .028 -.078 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 281.89 -2.93 289.39 -62.1% ------- RED -.014 -.131 -.145 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 457.33 -.94 464.65 -2% Bullish BLUE .089 -.047 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 182.76 -.96 187.55 -55.5% ------- ---- -.027 -.075 -.102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 82.74 .8 82.55 46.6% ------- BLUE .05 -.019 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.56 -.14 9.35 -80.4% Bullish ---- .027 -.226 -.199 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 11.89 -.6 13.87 -345.7% Bullish RED .068 -.234 -.166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 26.46 -.91 28.31 -163.7% Bullish RED .068 -.286 -.218 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 133 -.74 135.11 -62.6% Bullish RED .041 -.004 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 161.88 -.91 165.5 -92.4% Bullish RED .103 -.031 .072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.64 -.06 16.84 -269.6% ------- BLUE .119 -.106 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 300.6 -7.81 319.02 -193.2% ------- BLUE .064 .163 .227 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 21.6 -.36 23.04 -345% ------- RED .075 -.045 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 80.81 -.7 81.82 95.9% Bullish RED .105 -.122 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.06 .25 28.68 48.7% Bearish ---- -.166 -.038 -.204 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.34 -.21 26.63 22.6% Bullish ---- -.381 -.084 -.465 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.23 -.04 8.51 -131.1% Bullish BLUE 0 -.098 -.098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.72 -1.71 40.11 -5.3% ------- RED . 044 -.489 -.445 |
TABLE 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/21/22 Bullish = 44 Bearish = 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 1 .928 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 ---- COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 MARIJUAN .9 1 .9 .9 1 1 INFRA .848 .848 .848 .848 .818 .848 DJI-13 .846 1 .846 .846 .846 .846 COAL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 HOMEBLDG .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .777 RETAIL .829 .851 .829 .723 .808 .765 DOWJONES .8 .866 .8 .8 .833 .833 ----- INSURANC .8 .8 .8 .8 .76 .76 REGBANKS .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .84 SP-100 .8 .833 .777 .766 .8 .777 TRANSP .789 .789 .684 .684 .789 .736 CHEM .782 .739 .717 .739 .804 .782 GOLD .782 .826 .826 .847 .847 .869 FINANCE .75 .737 .725 .725 .787 .762 SP500 .741 .743 .696 .713 .757 .711 ----- INDEXES .735 .767 .745 .745 .794 .735 MILITARY .73 .692 .692 .653 .73 .576 ETFS .727 .745 .781 .818 .854 .745 FIDSTKS .71 .745 .698 .704 .763 .715 INDMATER .708 .68 .652 .666 .75 .763 GUNS .692 .692 .692 .615 .769 .615 JETS .692 .769 .692 .692 .923 .769 SEMI .684 .705 .715 .673 .778 .673 NASD-100 .68 .7 .67 .66 .72 .66 ---- RUS-1000 .673 .68 .639 .659 .708 .662 ---- ELECTRON .669 .684 .691 .676 .736 .669 AUTO .641 .641 .66 .641 .735 .735 HIGHPRIC .636 .683 .636 .683 .742 .628 OILGAS .632 .716 .726 .726 .745 .716 COMPUTER .6 .7 .65 .65 .7 .65 GAMING .578 .631 .631 .631 .578 .578 REIT .569 .546 .469 .492 .546 .492 COMODITY .564 .564 .512 .692 .743 .666 HACKERS .562 .437 .5 .5 .5 .5 SOFTWARE .553 .553 .553 .589 .607 .553 UTILITY .552 .447 .342 .394 .368 .342 BONDFUND .54 .379 .298 .367 .206 .08 GREEN .526 .526 .526 .631 .631 .631 NIFTY .522 .636 .613 .568 .681 .545 FOOD .51 .53 .489 .653 .734 .632 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR .5 .5 .625 .625 .687 .437 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOSPITAL .428 .5 .357 .428 .571 .571 BIOTECH .391 .41 .41 .396 .438 .421 LOWPRICE .282 .313 .296 .282 .313 .321 CHINA .22 .38 .44 .32 .48 .26 |
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Monday - 6:00 AM - Futures: DJI -53 NASDAQ -75 Data Used: 11/18/2022
11-18-22 DJIA 33745.69 199.37 + 0.59% S&P 500 3965.34 18.78 + 0.48% Nasdaq 11146.06 1.10 +0.01% |
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Thanksgiving week tends to be bullish. Over the past 50
years, the S&P 500 has gained on average 0.54% and risen 68% of the time. This is much better than the 0.16% gain for a typical week and a rise about 56% of the time. Since 1966, in second years of the Presidential Election Year, we find the DJI has risen 71.4% of the time in the ten days following November 20th and shown an average gain of 1.5%. So, I think we should expect the DJI and stocks above their 65-dma to zig-zag upward. That should spilll over to the very strongest stocks shown as Bullish MAXCPs here. The FED's FOMC Minutes will be released this week. With inflation showing signs of ebbing, the Jobs' report still quite positive and the retail sales' data of last week being better than expected, there is talk on Bloomberg and even the NY Times of a "soft landing". The FOMC Minutes will show us something about the number of "hawks" and "doves". The market could go wild, "simply wild", if the Fed announced a rate hike pause in December so as not spook retail sales at their busiest time of the year. Technically, we still see a rising A/D Line, though just barely for the NYSE and for the much broader Russell-1000, both shown below. DIA's Closing Power is uptrending. This would be a great week if the DJI can surpass its overhead flat resistance at 34200 and the big tech heavy NASDAQ and QQQ could breakout above their 65-day moving averages. But the tendency at the end of the year is for tax-loss selling to hold back fallen leaders, like AMGN, Facebook, MSFT and GOOG. Until anti-trust complaints stop holding back their "growth", they will likely be avoided. Semi-conductors are in a much more competitive group and may do well. We'll watch all these. See their charts below. So, holding short QQQ and being long some of the numerous bullish MAXCPs seems reasonable now. How the market reacts to new is very important. DISNEY is making new lows because of failing to meet earnings and revenue expectations. Now their previous CEO is returning. Watch DIS. |
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Charts - 11/18/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81118.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-18/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-18/BEARISH.htm |
Tiger Chart of "Russell-1000" -Red and other Automatic Sells -falling 5-dma +Russ. A/D Line is still rising. IWM - Russell-2000 Uptrending but -falling 5-dma |
DJI seems symied by well-tested flat resistance at 34200. -falling 5-dma Watch A/D Line uptrend. This will be a clue about FED's intentions. |
Both Opening and Closing Power are rising. Much the strongest major market ETFs over last 50-days. |
11-18-22 DJIA 33745.69 199.37 0.59% S&P 500 3965.34 18.78 0.48% Nasdaq 11146.06 1.10 0.01% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,302 3,310 3,290 Advances 1,902 1,108 2,064 Declines 1,250 2,044 1,095 Unchanged 150 158 131 New highs 70 34 81 New lows 42 69 35 Adv. volume* 593,951,208 317,248,479 825,649,124 Decl. volume* 352,431,815 499,784,708 281,008,730 Total volume* 952,620,621 830,016,655 1,112,584,974 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.13 0.83 0.58 Block trades* 5,055 4,982 6,096 Adv. volume 2,300,622,971 1,564,544,992 4,262,775,415 Decl. volume 1,704,522,327 2,381,521,868 1,302,164,997 Total volume 4,037,364,466 4,051,788,248 5,593,312,279 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,932 4,962 4,891 Advances 2,465 1,754 3,066 Declines 2,192 2,892 1,576 Unchanged 275 316 249 New highs 71 63 110 New lows 186 197 152 new lows Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.45 0.83 0.50 Block trades 24,682 25,332 36,330 Adv. volume 1,788,623,043 1,816,050,453 4,638,890,784 Decl. volume 2,304,629,511 2,472,606,489 1,185,838,691 Total volume 4,175,421,469 4,354,367,686 5,867,759,696 NYSE American Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 296 295 305 Advances 145 96 187 Declines 136 188 102 Unchanged 15 11 16 New highs 2 1 5 New lows 10 15 7 Adv. volume* 3,990,988 1,236,826 10,570,125 Decl. volume* 5,756,255 6,980,419 1,786,389 Total volume* 9,875,364 8,399,218 12,388,262 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.24 3.97 0.31 Block trades* 123 106 140 Adv. volume 54,543,309 15,303,237 148,694,265 Decl. volume 63,223,121 118,991,146 25,108,439 Total volume 119,339,782 135,432,912 175,424,288 ================================================= |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/18/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 Dollar CORN, YINN ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 337.37 1.27 335.77 -6.2% Bullish ---- .146 0 .146 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11146.06 1.1 11196.22 -78.8% Bullish RED .016 -.127 -.111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 396.03 1.79 395.12 -31.3% Bullish RED .081 -.073 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 284.82 .01 285.44 -54.8% Bullish RED .053 -.119 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 458.27 2.99 457.51 -40.8% Bullish RED .119 -.043 .076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 183.72 1.18 184.81 -85.8% ------- RED .014 -.066 -.052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 81.94 1.76 81.98 -237.2% ------- RED .101 -.012 .089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.7 .25 8.7 -188.1% Bullish RED .057 -.177 -.12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.49 .12 12.77 -283.6% Bullish RED .131 -.194 -.063 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 27.37 .12 27.36 -132.1% Bullish RED .121 -.232 -.111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 133.74 .46 134.68 -19% ------- RED .079 -.005 .074 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 162.79 -1.13 164.92 -53.7% Bullish RED .151 -.028 .123 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.7 -.28 16.52 -457.2% Bearish BLUE -.038 -.095 -.133 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 308.41 -2.59 312.68 -159.5% ------- BLUE .07 .204 .274 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 21.96 -.23 23.16 -385.4% ------- RED .101 -.019 .082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 81.51 -1.11 79.25 125.4% Bullish RED .152 -.118 .034 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.81 .08 28.78 27.9% Bearish BLUE -.212 -.06 -.272 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.55 -.02 26.22 30.2% Bullish BLUE -.368 -.073 -.441 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.27 -.04 8.45 -100.9% Bullish RED -.013 -.108 -.121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 36.43 -3.73 34.76 293.1% ------- RED .069 -.448 -.379 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/18/22 Bullish = 41 Bearish = 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 1 .928 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 ===== COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 1 .846 .846 .846 .846 .846 MARIJUAN 1 .9 .9 1 1 .9 DOWJONES .866 .8 .8 .833 .833 .833 ===== RETAIL .851 .829 .723 .808 .765 .787 INFRA .848 .848 .848 .818 .848 .818 COAL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .666 HOMEBLDG .833 .833 .833 .833 .777 .944 SP-100 .833 .777 .766 .8 .766 .8 GOLD .826 .826 .847 .847 .869 .891 INSURANC .8 .8 .8 .76 .76 .84 REGBANKS .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 TRANSP .789 .684 .684 .789 .736 .789 JETS .769 .692 .692 .923 .769 .846 INDEXES .767 .745 .745 .794 .735 .767 ETFS .745 .781 .818 .854 .763 .745 FIDSTKS .745 .698 .704 .763 .71 .757 SP500 .743 .696 .713 .753 .711 .751 ===== CHEM .739 .717 .76 .782 .804 .804 FINANCE .737 .725 .725 .775 .75 .812 OILGAS .716 .726 .726 .745 .716 .745 SEMI .705 .715 .673 .778 .652 .694 COMPUTER .7 .65 .65 .7 .65 .65 NASD-100 .7 .67 .66 .72 .66 .67 ===== GUNS .692 .692 .615 .769 .615 .846 MILITARY .692 .692 .653 .73 .576 .692 ELECTRON .684 .691 .676 .736 .654 .699 HIGHPRIC .683 .636 .683 .742 .617 .71 INDMATER .68 .652 .666 .75 .763 .763 RUS-1000 .68 .639 .659 .708 .661 .715 ===== AUTO .641 .66 .641 .735 .735 .735 NIFTY .636 .613 .568 .681 .545 .568 GAMING .631 .631 .578 .631 .578 .526 COMODITY .564 .512 .666 .743 .666 .717 SOFTWARE .553 .571 .589 .607 .553 .535 REIT .546 .461 .5 .553 .476 .607 FOOD .53 .489 .632 .734 .632 .693 GREEN .526 .526 .631 .631 .631 .578 ============================================================================================= HOSPITAL .5 .357 .428 .571 .571 .642 SOLAR .5 .625 .625 .687 .437 .437 ============================================================================================= UTILITY .447 .342 .394 .368 .342 .368 HACKERS .437 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 BIOTECH .41 .407 .399 .438 .413 .435 CHINA .38 .44 .32 .48 .26 .24 BONDFUND .379 .298 .367 .206 .091 .091 LOWPRICE .313 .299 .285 .313 .315 .315 |
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Friday - 6:00 AM - Futures: DJI
+230 NASDAQ +122 Data Used:
11/17/2022
11-17-22 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33546.32 -7.51 -0.02% S&P 500 3946.56 -12.23 -0.31% Nasdaq 11144.96 -38.70 -0.35% |
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Thursday's early fakeout
decline and DIA Closing Power turnaround was an impressive show of force by market professionals. They must be very confident in their ability to hold up the DJI and quite possibly propel it above 34000. They are doing this because it is the best game in town! To do well in this game one needs to study day-trading techniques and treat each day as having a separate chart. (See the key one-day charts at https://www.wsj.com/market-data ) This is not the first time we have seen such a bullish display of strength in the in the last two months' rally in the DJI. Now we have Friday, a day when there have been a number of very striong advances in this period. What makes the market so tricky now is how volatile DIA and DJ-30 are as the clear leaders at a time when many stocks are still trying to get safely past their downtrend-lines. Respect the leadership that the DJI-30 and DIA are showing. Understand that what has placed it in this position can continue for a long time. Above alll, it's the economic power and maturity they have. They much better control their markets and prices than do the much smaller companies where competition is always a problem. . Being well-know, they are the natural leaders now also because they can hold up the appearance that Wall Street is in a new bull market. And they do inspire confidence. Professional traders who are well-connected and can trade large numbers of leveraged vehicles based on them love the DJI-30 and DIA, because they can be more easily manipulated to the upside given the search by wealthy ex-bond investors for attractively rising blue chips. It seems clear also that the DJI-30 is a great market leader now also because it can be manipulated by buying quickly the very highest priced DJI-30 stocks, notably UNH which was up 10 points very quickly to help turn the DJI around today. For that reason we follow the heavily price-weighted GS, MSFT, AMGN, HD, CAT and MCD closely. DIA's Closing Power has turned back up with considerable conviction. The DJI still faces overhead resistance at 34000. Breadth remained poor today. But weak breadth and a low IP21 value have not held the DJI back on this rally. So, next we may see the DJI surpass 34000. We have to be nimble here. Quick traders who shorted it, should close out that position. QQQ and the NASDAQ can be held short as long as they do not close above their 65-dma. Look at the number of bullish MAXCPs tonight. Buying some of them and holding some of the bearish MINCPs short has been a good way to not be stressed out by sudden manipulated moves in the major market ETFs. |
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Charts - 11/17/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81117.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-17/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-17/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 - Breadth Statistics11-17-22 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 33546.32 -7.51 -0.02% S&P 500 3946.56 -12.23 -0.31% Nasdaq 11144.96 -38.70 -0.35% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,310 3,296 3,389 Advances 1,108 1,083 2,902 Declines 2,044 2,083 375 Unchanged 158 130 112 New highs 34 53 75 New lows 69 55 50 Adv. volume* 317,248,479 161,155,710 1,068,161,874 Decl. volume* 499,784,708 690,638,318 109,433,410 Total volume* 830,016,655 857,017,511 1,180,872,819 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.83 2.67 1.15 Block trades* 4,982 4,828 5,922 Adv. volume 1,564,544,992 672,090,579 5,008,889,097 Decl. volume 2,381,521,868 3,453,473,989 743,655,807 Total volume 4,051,788,248 4,165,326,793 5,781,268,556 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,962 4,880 5,000 Advances 1,754 1,425 3,817 Declines 2,892 3,176 929 Unchanged 316 279 254 New highs 63 68 139 New lows 198 166 211 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.83 1.29 0.39 Block trades 25,332 27,009 34,435 Adv. volume 1,816,050,453 1,171,755,434 5,852,386,047 Decl. volume 2,472,606,489 3,376,238,946 560,221,622 Total volume 4,354,367,686 4,585,190,861 6,433,000,027 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/17/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 Dollar CORN, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 336.1 .03 337.79 -17.2% Bullish BLUE .103 ---- ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11144.96 -38.7 11323.33 13.7% Bullish BLUE -.008 -.117 -.125 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 394.24 -1.21 398.51 -5.7% Bullish BLUE .032 -.071 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 284.81 -.63 287.96 36% Bullish BLUE .028 -.108 -.08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 455.28 -2.54 462.02 -44.5% Bullish BLUE .079 -.041 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 182.54 -1.71 186.9 -76.4% ------- BLUE -.013 -.062 -.075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 80.18 -1.32 85.85 -221.3% ------- BLUE .044 -.017 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.45 .13 9.03 11.4% Bullish BLUE .035 -.147 -.112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.37 .24 13.22 113.2% Bullish BLUE .091 -.15 -.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 27.25 .1 28.1 79.9% Bullish BLUE .091 -.197 -.106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 133.28 -.93 134.25 -11.2% ------- BLUE .057 -.007 .05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 163.92 -1.2 164.56 13.4% Bullish BLUE .142 -.025 .117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 15.98 -.57 17.22 -214.7% Bearish RED -.153 -.044 -.197 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 311 -1.28 318.45 43.3% ------- BLUE .034 .266 .3 +++ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.19 -.5 23.73 -140.7% ------- BLUE .197 -.016 .181 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 82.62 1.08 79.48 70.6% Bullish BLUE .153 -.115 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.73 .11 28.65 -59.1% Bearish RED -.209 -.079 -.288 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.57 0 26.39 70.1% Bullish BLUE -.342 -.063 -.405 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.31 -.11 8.44 -11.9% Bullish ---- .043 -.076 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 40.16 2.64 34.24 1411.1% ------- BLUE .066 -.349 -.283 --- |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/17/22 Bullish = 40 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 1 .928 1 1 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 MARIJUAN .9 .9 1 1 .9 .6 INFRA .848 .848 .818 .848 .818 .787 DJI-13 .846 .846 .846 .846 .846 .923 COAL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 .666 .666 HOMEBLDG .833 .833 .833 .777 .944 .888 RETAIL .829 .723 .808 .765 .787 .787 GOLD .826 .847 .847 .869 .891 .869 DOWJONES .8 .8 .833 .833 .8 .833 ===== INSURANC .8 .8 .76 .76 .8 .88 REGBANKS .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .84 ETFS .781 .818 .854 .763 .763 .654 SP-100 .777 .766 .8 .766 .8 .788 INDEXES .745 .745 .794 .735 .767 .724 OILGAS .726 .726 .745 .716 .745 .726 FINANCE .725 .725 .775 .737 .775 .8 CHEM .717 .76 .804 .782 .826 .782 SEMI .715 .673 .778 .652 .684 .61 FIDSTKS .698 .704 .763 .71 .751 .721 SP500 .696 .713 .753 .707 .745 .731 ===== GUNS .692 .615 .769 .615 .769 .692 JETS .692 .692 .923 .769 .846 .692 MILITARY .692 .653 .73 .576 .692 .73 ELECTRON .691 .676 .736 .654 .691 .609 TRANSP .684 .684 .789 .736 .789 .684 NASD-100 .67 .66 .72 .66 .66 .62 ===== AUTO .66 .641 .735 .735 .735 .66 INDMATER .652 .666 .75 .763 .763 .708 COMPUTER .65 .65 .7 .65 .65 .55 HIGHPRIC .636 .683 .742 .617 .691 .648 GAMING .631 .578 .578 .631 .578 .526 SOLAR .625 .625 .687 .437 .437 .437 NIFTY .613 .568 .681 .545 .545 .5 SOFTWARE .571 .607 .607 .553 .535 .5 GREEN .526 .631 .631 .631 .578 .578 COMODITY .512 .666 .717 .666 .717 .666 ============================================================================================== HACKERS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 ============================================================================================== FOOD .489 .632 .714 .632 .693 .612 RUS-1000 .475 .465 .513 .473 .491 .46 REIT .461 .492 .561 .484 .576 .569 CHINA .44 .32 .48 .26 .24 .24 BIOTECH .407 .396 .44 .413 .432 .399 HOSPITAL .357 .428 .571 .571 .642 .428 UTILITY .342 .394 .368 .342 .368 .394 LOWPRICE .299 .288 .315 .315 .313 .277 BONDFUND .298 .367 .206 .091 .091 .091 |
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Thursday - 6:00 AM - Futures: DJI -324 NASDAQ -243
Data Used: 11/16/2022
11-16-2022DJIA 33553.83 -39.09 -0.12% S&P 500 3958.79 -32.94 -0.83% Nasdaq 11183.66 -174.75 -1.54% |
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The bullish news has mostly all come out. DIA's Closing Power has turned down. The NASDAQ and QQQ are unable to get past their 65-dma resistance and the DJI has been stopped repearedly as it nears its flat well-tested resistance. The Closing Power uptrend of Goldman Sachs even broke its uptrend. All these were were yesterday's warnings that the Fed's hawks are going to spread their alarms about out-of-control inflation. Ballard from the St. Louis has come in on perfect cue. Only a few of the leading DJI-30 stocks (IBM and HD) still show rising Cloasing Powers, See these below. The DJI now looks like it may have to re-test ifs 65-dma. Is it worth selling it short now with the DJI down 324 before the opening? For traders, yes. There are also a are a number of new bearish MINCPs that could be shorted. Avoid long positions that have moved up to resistance or have had their steep Closing Power uptrends violated. Because the IP21 indicator never turned very positive, we did not get a reversing Buy B4. So, to be consistent with Peerless, sell short DIA or QQQ. The DJI is back within its normal 3.5% bands. |
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Charts -
11/16/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81116.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-16/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-16/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 - Breadth Statistics11-16-2022 DJIA 33553.83 -39.09 -0.12% S&P 500 3958.79 -32.94 -0.83% Nasdaq 11183.66 -174.75 -1.54% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,296 3,317 3,297 Advances 1,083 2,428 615 Declines 2,083 777 2,563 Unchanged 130 112 119 New highs 53 65 37 New lows 55 28 167 Adv. volume* 161,155,710 751,896,328 81,447,340 Decl. volume* 690,638,318 255,084,232 850,103,135 Total volume* 857,017,511 1,017,531,692 938,333,535 Closing Arms (TRIN) 2.67 1.02 2.42 Block trades* 4,828 5,300 5,112 Adv. volume 672,090,579 3,724,125,257 415,288,208 Decl. volume 3,453,473,989 1,221,081,621 4,189,260,081 Total volume 4,165,326,793 5,015,316,847 4,645,015,265 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,880 4,932 4,888 Advances 1,425 3,127 1,098 Declines 3,176 1,556 3,523 Unchanged 279 249 267 New highs 68 107 85 New lows 166 124 511 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.29 0.74 1.50 Block trades 27,009 34,962 26,488 Adv. volume 1,171,755,434 4,071,404,430 848,680,725 Decl. volume 3,376,238,946 1,489,469,152 4,090,137,503 Total volume 4,585,190,861 5,617,310,541 4,977,465,033 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/16/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 Dollar CORN, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 336.07 -.14 337.26 160.4% ------- BLUE .08 ---- ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11183.66 -174.75 11114.15 375.1% ------- RED -.034 -.114 -.148 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 395.45 -3.04 394.69 271.8% Bullish RED .002 -.068 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 285.44 -3.95 282.75 392.5% Bullish RED .004 -.108 -.104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 457.82 -6.83 459.38 259.1% Bullish RED .032 -.033 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 184.25 -3.3 185.38 261.6% Bearish RED -.039 -.051 -.09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 81.5 -1.05 83.86 536.9% ------- RED -.004 .049 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.32 -1.03 8.43 873.7% ------- RED -.02 -.171 -.191 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.13 -1.74 12.08 1180.9% Bullish RED .072 -.129 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 27.15 -1.16 26.81 1077.3% Bullish RED .072 -.198 -.126 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 134.21 -.9 133.58 193.5% Bullish RED .015 .03 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 165.12 -.38 163.48 198% Bullish RED .081 -.03 .051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.55 -.29 16.7 -3% Bearish ---- -.095 -.008 -.103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 312.28 -6.74 308.28 173.1% ------- RED .074 .271 .345 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.69 -.35 22.84 119.7% ------- RED .182 .033 .215 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 81.54 -.28 81.48 438.1% Bullish BLUE .097 -.13 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.62 -.06 29.07 -194.9% Bearish ---- -.171 -.087 -.258 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.57 -.06 26.2 0% Bullish BLUE -.335 -.072 -.407 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.42 -.09 8.33 41.6% Bullish ---- .015 -.082 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 37.52 -2.59 30.18 1800.8% Bearish RED .007 -.426 -.419 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/16/22 BULLISH = 40 BEARISH = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 .928 1 1 .642 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 .714 ===== COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 MARIJUAN .9 1 1 .9 .6 .5 INFRA .848 .818 .848 .818 .787 .636 GOLD .847 .847 .869 .891 .869 .782 DJI-13 .846 .846 .846 .846 .923 .769 COAL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 EDU .833 .833 .833 .666 .666 .666 HOMEBLDG .833 .833 .777 .944 .888 .166 ETFS .818 .854 .763 .763 .672 .418 DOWJONES .8 .833 .833 .8 .833 .6 ===== INSURANC .8 .76 .76 .8 .88 .68 REGBANKS .8 .8 .8 .8 .84 .64 SP-100 .766 .8 .766 .8 .8 .555 CHEM .76 .804 .804 .804 .804 .5 INDEXES .745 .794 .735 .767 .724 .437 OILGAS .726 .745 .716 .745 .726 .622 FINANCE .725 .775 .737 .762 .8 .562 RETAIL .723 .808 .765 .787 .787 .446 SP500 .713 .753 .707 .741 .727 .478 ===== FIDSTKS .704 .763 .71 .751 .727 .502 JETS .692 .923 .769 .846 .692 .615 TRANSP .684 .789 .736 .789 .684 .421 HIGHPRIC .683 .742 .617 .691 .64 .324 ELECTRON .676 .736 .654 .691 .586 .436 SEMI .673 .778 .652 .684 .578 .368 COMODITY .666 .717 .641 .717 .692 .538 INDMATER .666 .75 .763 .763 .708 .541 NASD-100 .66 .72 .66 .66 .59 .4 ===== MILITARY .653 .73 .576 .692 .73 .576 COMPUTER .65 .7 .65 .65 .55 .4 AUTO .641 .735 .735 .735 .641 .49 FOOD .632 .714 .612 .693 .632 .53 GREEN .631 .631 .631 .578 .526 .421 SOLAR .625 .687 .437 .437 .437 .125 GUNS .615 .769 .615 .769 .692 .461 SOFTWARE .607 .625 .553 .535 .464 .267 GAMING .578 .578 .578 .631 .526 .473 NIFTY .568 .681 .545 .545 .477 .34 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .312 =------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REIT .492 .553 .492 .584 .553 .292 RUS-1000 .465 .516 .475 .493 .45 .298 HOSPITAL .428 .571 .571 .642 .428 .214 BIOTECH .396 .438 .415 .432 .396 .297 UTILITY .394 .368 .342 .368 .368 .184 BONDFUND .367 .206 .091 .091 .103 .022 CHINA .32 .48 .26 .24 .24 .22 LOWPRICE .288 .318 .318 .313 .265 .235 |
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Wednesday
- 5:30 AM - Futures: DJI -31 NASDAQ -22
Data Used: 11/15/2022
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All the key internal strength indicators we use to monitor the DJI are rising except for one. See below how the Closing Power for DIA broke its steep uptrend. The DJI opened up 300+ but immediately fell back as much as 800 before recovering on Walmart's good earnings' new and actually gained a little for the day. This shows that there is considerable resistance overhead for the DJI at 34000. The DJI is now 4.1% over its 21-dma with the IP21- Accumulation a weak-looking +.031. A pullback to the rising 21-day ma of the DJI should be expected soon if the steep rising price and Closing Power trends are broken for other key ETFs and QQQ and the NASDAQ now stall out at their falling 65-dma. Reinforcing this short-term cautionary note is the lack of a Peerless automatic Buy signal and the weak OBV recovery for most of the key indexes. Moreover, it is not clear what bullish news still awaits the market. The good news is now out and probably discounted short-term about a stalemated Federal Government with Republicans winning the House and with a decline in the rate of inflation. I think the market is expecting Russia and Ukraine to work out a cease fire in the next six months. That would fit in nicely with the very bullish seasonality that starts soon after mid-December. Consider the seasonality now as we near the ending of the second-year in the Presidential cycle. From November 15th to December 16th, the DJI typically falls a little and rises only 43% of the time. But looking out further it is very strong, rising 78.6% over the next two months, 92.9% over the next 3 months and 100% of the time over the next 6 months. So, I would avoid the short side. On the NYSE, the number of new lows has fallen under 30 for two straight days. Volatile semi-conductors usually do not wait long before rising quickly when Wall Street senses a new bull market is beginning. Note that SOXL has now outperformed the DJI. The top three Power Ranked stocks in our semi-conductor grouping are RMBS, AMKR and FSLR. MTSI has the highest IP21 value. They are among the most bullish Power Ranked tonight. These should probably be bought now and more on any minor decline. |
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Charts - 11/15/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81115.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-15/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-15/BEARISH.htm |
DJI's INTERNAL STRENGTH INDICATORS ARE STILL RISING
1 - A/D Line, 2 - P-I, 3 - IP21 (AI), 4 - V-I, 5 - OBV, 6 - MACD
also 5-dma, but OBV has lagged badly.
MACD HAS WORKED WELL.
11-15-2022 DJIA 33592.92 56.22 0.17% S&P 500 3991.73 34.48 0.87% Nasdaq 11358.41 162.19 1.45% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,317 3,318 3,308 Advances 2,428 941 1,947 Declines 777 2,267 1,232 Unchanged 112 110 129 New highs 65 54 77 New lows 28 24 97 Adv. volume* 751,896,328 270,201,131 587,162,558 Decl. volume* 255,084,232 664,686,186 333,155,579 Total volume* 1,017,531,692 940,874,944 935,806,546 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.02 0.95 0.90 Block trades* 5,300 5,079 5,030 Adv. volume 3,724,125,257 1,382,758,256 2,888,765,000 Decl. volume 1,221,081,621 3,149,084,133 1,642,621,011 Total volume 5,015,316,847 4,561,933,371 4,607,647,058 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,932 4,994 4,866 Advances 3,127 1,801 2,370 Declines 1,556 2,900 2,205 Unchanged 249 293 291 New highs 107 83 111 New lows 124 113 296 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.74 1.08 0.88 Block trades 34,962 29,155 28,353 Adv. volume 4,071,404,430 1,809,793,081 2,799,854,544 Decl. volume 1,489,469,152 3,155,519,593 2,302,366,594 Total volume 5,617,310,541 5,004,060,260 5,134,509,231 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/15/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 Dollar CORN, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 336.21 .44 325.34 67.5% Bullish RED .086 0 ===== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11358.41 162.19 10353.18 339.8% ------- RED -.02 -.093 -.113 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 398.49 3.37 374.13 212% Bullish RED .017 -.057 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 289.39 3.95 263.32 357.3% ------- RED .009 -.089 -.08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 464.65 7.14 434.21 233.3% Bullish BLUE .04 -.008 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 187.55 2.74 174.63 219.2% ------- RED -.03 -.025 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 82.55 .57 72.76 372.2% ------- RED .002 .113 .115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9.35 .65 6.84 1051.9% Bullish ---- 0 .023 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 13.87 1.1 9.24 1609.3% Bullish RED .066 .04 .106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 28.31 .95 21.46 998.3% Bullish RED .071 -.133 -.062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 135.11 .43 129.05 179.8% Bullish RED .011 .053 .064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 165.5 .58 158.65 186.5% Bullish BLUE .091 -.032 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.84 .32 16.56 -115.8% Bearish BLUE -.117 -.062 -.179 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 319.02 6.34 301.48 20.2% ------- BLUE .096 .266 .362 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.04 -.12 22.14 197.4% ------- ---- .165 .029 .194 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 81.82 2.57 74.59 510% Bullish RED .103 -.083 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.68 -.1 29.75 -145.8% Bearish BLUE -.165 -.106 -.271 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.63 .41 26.57 -39.7% ------- BLUE -.32 -.094 -.414 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.51 .06 8.35 -17.8% Bullish BLUE .024 -.063 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 40.11 5.35 25.64 1783% Bearish RED .006 -.373 -.367 |
tABLE 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/15/22 Bullish = 43 Big Banks 100% Dow Jones 83.3% SP-500 75.3% Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 .928 1 1 .642 .785 BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 .714 .857 ===== COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 MARIJUAN 1 1 .9 .6 .5 .5 JETS .923 .769 .846 .692 .615 .692 ETFS .854 .763 .763 .672 .436 .527 GOLD .847 .869 .891 .869 .782 .782 DJI-13 .846 .846 .846 .923 .769 .846 COAL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 DOWJONES .833 .833 .8 .833 .6 .733 ===== EDU .833 .833 .666 .666 .666 .833 HOMEBLDG .833 .777 .944 .888 .166 .222 INFRA .818 .848 .818 .787 .636 .727 RETAIL .808 .765 .787 .787 .446 .723 CHEM .804 .804 .826 .782 .521 .63 REGBANKS .8 .8 .8 .84 .64 .68 SP-100 .8 .766 .8 .8 .555 .711 INDEXES .794 .735 .767 .724 .437 .535 TRANSP .789 .736 .789 .684 .421 .631 SEMI .778 .652 .684 .578 .357 .431 FINANCE .775 .737 .762 .787 .562 .662 GUNS .769 .615 .769 .692 .461 .692 FIDSTKS .763 .71 .751 .727 .502 .603 INSURANC .76 .76 .8 .88 .68 .8 SP500 .753 .707 .741 .723 .48 .567 ===== INDMATER .75 .763 .763 .708 .541 .638 OILGAS .745 .716 .745 .726 .622 .735 HIGHPRIC .742 .617 .691 .64 .328 .417 ELECTRON .736 .654 .691 .586 .428 .481 AUTO .735 .735 .735 .641 .49 .603 MILITARY .73 .576 .692 .73 .576 .769 NASD-100 .72 .66 .66 .59 .4 .46 ===== COMODITY .717 .641 .692 .692 .538 .743 FOOD .714 .612 .673 .632 .53 .734 COMPUTER .7 .65 .65 .55 .4 .5 SOLAR .687 .437 .437 .437 .125 .062 NIFTY .681 .545 .545 .477 .34 .386 GREEN .631 .631 .578 .526 .421 .526 SOFTWARE .625 .571 .535 .464 .267 .303 GAMING .578 .578 .578 .578 .473 .526 HOSPITAL .571 .571 .642 .428 .214 .285 REIT .553 .484 .592 .561 .284 .338 RUS-1000 .516 .478 .496 .453 .296 .351 =============================================================================================== HACKERS .5 .5 .5 .5 .312 .312 =============================================================================================== CHINA .48 .26 .24 .24 .2 .22 BIOTECH .438 .413 .435 .396 .292 .322 UTILITY .368 .342 .368 .368 .184 .184 LOWPRICE .318 .321 .315 .265 .235 .254 BONDFUND .206 .091 .091 .103 .034 .022 |
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Tuesday - 5:52 AM Futures: DJI
+368 NASDAQ +300 Data Used:
11/14/2022
11-14-2022 DJIA 33536.70 -211.16 -0.63% S&P 500 3957.25 -35.68 -0.89% Nasdaq 11196.22 -127.11 -1.12
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Charts - 11/14/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81114.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-14/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-14/BEARISH.htm |
34300 is new overhead resistance. DJI remains bullishly above its 3.5% band with internals in uptrend. There has been no bullish bulge of Accumulation, so we have no Buy B4. It's best to wait for new signs of weakness in DJI-30 before going short. |
Bullish DJI-30 stock - GS is leader. |
Bullish DJI stock |
Bullish DJI stock |
Bullish DJIA Stock |
Weak Looking DJIA Stocks:: UNH, MCD, MSFT, MRK |
11-14-2022 DJIA 33536.70 -211.16 -0.63% S&P 500 3957.25 -35.68 -0.89% Nasdaq 11196.22 -127.11 -1.12 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,318 3,290 3,325 Advances 941 2,064 2,007 Declines 2,267 1,095 1,155 Unchanged 110 131 163 New highs 54 81 79 New lows 24 35 145 Adv. volume* 270,201,131 825,649,124 568,743,595 Decl. volume* 664,686,186 281,008,730 335,138,101 Total volume* 940,874,944 1,112,584,974 909,597,724 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.95 0.58 1.20 Block trades* 5,079 6,096 5,272 Adv. volume 1,382,758,256 4,262,775,415 2,547,088,912 Decl. volume 3,149,084,133 1,302,164,997 1,764,804,742 Total volume 4,561,933,371 5,593,312,279 4,341,624,918 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,994 4,891 4,933 Advances 1,801 3,066 2,550 Declines 2,900 1,576 2,090 Unchanged 293 249 293 New highs 83 110 100 New lows 113 152 272 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.08 0.50 0.88 Block trades 29,155 36,330 22,588 Adv. volume 1,809,793,081 4,638,890,784 2,538,287,982 Decl. volume 3,155,519,593 1,185,838,691 1,821,603,450 Total volume 5,004,060,260 5,867,759,696 4,456,695,568 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/14/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 Dollar CORN, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 335.77 -2.02 331.71 110.7% Bullish RED .105 0 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11196.22 -127.11 10616.2 292.6% Bullish RED .005 -.108 -.103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 395.12 -3.39 382 196.6% Bullish RED .055 -.063 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 285.44 -2.52 269.54 325.5% Bullish RED .035 -.103 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 457.51 -4.51 443.59 163.7% Bullish RED .062 -.024 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 184.81 -2.09 179.56 146.8% Bullish RED .006 -.044 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 81.98 -3.87 76.58 424.1% Bullish RED -.001 .106 .105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.7 -.33 7.64 715% Bullish RED .042 -.067 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.77 -.45 10.17 1464.1% Bullish RED .051 -.077 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 27.36 -.74 23.24 967.4% Bullish RED .091 -.176 -.085 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 134.68 .43 130.35 213.3% Bullish BLUE .042 .041 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 164.92 .36 159.45 282.7% Bullish BLUE .053 -.035 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.52 -.7 17.23 -362.7% Bearish RED -.165 -.074 -.239 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 312.68 -5.77 317.76 -81.9% ------- RED .065 .228 .293 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.16 -.57 22.14 326.6% ------- ---- .072 .062 .134 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 79.25 -.23 73.89 514.6% Bullish ---- .086 -.09 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.78 .13 29.53 -150% Bearish ---- -.178 -.091 -.269 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.22 -.17 26.84 -157.8% Bearish ---- -.361 -.085 -.446 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.45 .01 8.54 -147.5% ------- ---- 0 -.053 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.76 .52 29.13 940.2% Bearish RED .002 -.496 -.494 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/14/22 Bullish = 40 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 .714 .857 .857 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 MARIJUAN 1 .9 .6 .5 .5 .4 BEVERAGE .928 1 1 .642 .714 .785 GOLD .869 .891 .869 .782 .782 .63 INFRA .848 .818 .787 .636 .696 .666 DJI-13 .846 .846 .923 .769 .846 .769 COAL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 1 DOWJONES .833 .8 .833 .6 .733 .666 ===== EDU .833 .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 CHEM .804 .826 .804 .5 .652 .608 REGBANKS .8 .8 .84 .64 .68 .64 HOMEBLDG .777 .944 .888 .166 .222 .222 JETS .769 .846 .692 .615 .692 .769 SP-100 .766 .8 .8 .555 .7 .644 RETAIL .765 .787 .787 .446 .723 .638 ETFS .763 .763 .672 .436 .527 .454 INDMATER .763 .763 .708 .541 .638 .638 INSURANC .76 .8 .88 .68 .8 .8 FINANCE .737 .762 .787 .55 .662 .6 TRANSP .736 .789 .684 .421 .631 .578 AUTO .735 .735 .641 .49 .603 .547 INDEXES .735 .767 .724 .437 .518 .491 OILGAS .716 .745 .726 .622 .735 .745 FIDSTKS .71 .751 .727 .502 .603 .544 SP500 .707 .741 .723 .476 .561 .529 NASD-100 .66 .66 .59 .4 .44 .42 ELECTRON .654 .691 .586 .428 .466 .413 SEMI .652 .684 .578 .357 .4 .357 COMPUTER .65 .65 .55 .4 .5 .5 COMODITY .641 .692 .666 .538 .769 .666 GREEN .631 .578 .526 .421 .526 .368 HIGHPRIC .617 .691 .64 .328 .406 .386 GUNS .615 .769 .692 .461 .692 .692 FOOD .612 .673 .612 .53 .755 .653 GAMING .578 .578 .526 .526 .526 .526 MILITARY .576 .692 .73 .576 .769 .73 HOSPITAL .571 .642 .428 .214 .285 .285 SOFTWARE .571 .553 .464 .267 .303 .285 NIFTY .545 .545 .477 .34 .363 .363 =============================================================================================== HACKERS .5 .5 .5 .312 .312 .312 =============================================================================================== REIT .484 .584 .569 .292 .323 .346 RUS-1000 .478 .498 .455 .298 .349 .329 SOLAR .437 .437 .437 .125 .062 .062 BIOTECH .413 .432 .399 .292 .325 .322 UTILITY .342 .368 .368 .184 .184 .157 LOWPRICE .321 .318 .268 .235 .254 .252 CHINA .26 .24 .24 .2 .22 .22 BONDFUND .091 .091 .103 .034 .034 .045 |
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2022 DJI Chart looks like DJI Chart of 1934
1934 was a year of violent strikes. When President Roosevelt sat out the huge
textile
strike all along the Atlantic coast and allowed Southern Governors to stage mass arrests
of picketers, the strike quickly failed and unions became stigmatized in the South.
Wall
Street saw and liked this new side of the President. The DJI-30 then turned up in
October. Technically, the DJI jumped above its normal bands and the P-I and
IP21 indicators turned positive quickly. This produced a timely Buy B4 signal
and the DJI's channel breakout led to a new bull market in 1935 and 1936.
(See 1934 textile workers' strike: https://potus-geeks.livejournal.com/889155.html
)
There are some interesting parallels with today's market. The DJI fell to a nadir in
1934
just a little more than 20% down from the peak. The DJI broke above its downtrendig
channel in October. The President was a Democrat and the following year was the
normally bullish third year of the four-year Presidential cycle. There has been
improve-
recently in the P-I and IP21, as they have turned positive. If the parallels further
develop, the DJI will pullback towards its rising 30-week ma. One thing that could
make this happen would be if President Biden in the name of unifying the country soon
signals to Wall Street that he will be their ally, not their adversary.
Peerless Chart of 1934
Peerless Chart of 2022
Monday - 5:50 AM Futures: DJI -41
NASDAQ -64 Data
Used: 11/11/2022
11-11 DJIA 33747.86 32.49 +0.10% S&P 500 3992.93 36.56 +0.92% Nasdaq 11323.33 209.18 +1.8% |
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The Fed has not responded publicly to the turn down of the rate of inflation. Also up in the air are the election results for the House of Representatives. The market may calm down and do some waiting now. But the DJI's internals could improve enough to finally give us a Buy B4. This is produced when there is a steep rise in the P-I and IP21 indicators with the DJI above its upper band. These internal strength readings are based on 21-day moving averages. And today, we shoukd see these indicators advance as a result of dropping off very bearish data 21-days ago. As you can see in the 1934 chart above, a Buy B4 would not necessarily prevent a brief retreat before a further rise. But channel and megaphone breakouts show very unusual DJI strength. And now it looks like that is spreading to SPY and QQQ. Big Banks stocks are all on the rise now, especially Goldman Sachs, which is their leader. Traders at GS are particularly "welll-connected" to the FED. I doubt if GS would have rallied this strongly recently if the FED was going to disappoint the market. So, as long as GS shows steep uptrends in price, Closing Power and 5-day ma, I would expect the DJI to hold up well despite its over-bought status. In the DJI-30, is AAPL, too. It seems bound to challenge its rising 65-dma. SOXL (semi-conductors) have burst past that resistance. This is likely to allow QQQ and the NASDAQ to have their own breakouts past the key resistance at the 65-dma. In this they would be joining SPY and the SP-500. So, I would prefer to not go short yet. Keep in mind that the next eight months in the 4-year Presidential cycle, are known for their specially bulllish seasonality. On the NYSE, new highs overtook advancers. That there are not more Bullish MAXCPs and more Bearish MINCPs probably is telling us that this may be a quiet week.
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Charts - 11/11/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81111.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-11/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-11/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 - Breadth Statistics
11-11 DJIA 33747.86 32.49 +0.10% S&P 500 3992.93 36.56 +0.92% Nasdaq 11323.33 209.18 +1.8% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,290 3,389 3,293 Advances 2,064 2,902 2,250 Declines 1,095 375 915 Unchanged 131 112 128 New highs 81 75 85 New lows 35 50 217 (bullish) Adv. volume* 825,649,124 1,068,161,874 818,653,877 Decl. volume* 281,008,730 109,433,410 256,017,306 Total volume* 1,112,584,974 1,180,872,819 1,079,098,430 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.58 1.15 0.86 Block trades* 6,096 5,922 5,755 Adv. volume 4,262,775,415 5,008,889,097 3,973,988,336 Decl. volume 1,302,164,997 743,655,807 1,394,902,321 Total volume 5,593,312,279 5,781,268,556 5,400,187,067 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,891 5,000 4,898 Advances 3,066 3,817 2,681 Declines 1,576 929 1,902 Unchanged 249 254 315 New highs 110 139 93 New lows 152 211 353 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.50 0.39 1.03 Block trades 36,330 34,435 28,251 Adv. volume 4,638,890,784 5,852,386,047 3,123,882,125 Decl. volume 1,185,838,691 560,221,622 2,292,934,976 Total volume 5,867,759,696 6,433,000,027 5,453,752,777 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/1`/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 2 CORN, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 337.79 .53 328.42 207.2% Bullish RED .087 ---- -------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11323.33 209.18 10564.52 399.1% ------- BLUE .007 -.105 -.098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 398.51 3.82 379.95 290.5% Bullish BLUE .03 -.06 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 287.96 5.21 267.59 431.8% ------- BLUE .008 -.104 -.096 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 462.02 2.64 442.83 260.1% Bullish BLUE .061 -.017 .044 ----------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- IWM 186.9 1.52 179.49 228.9% ------- BLUE -.003 -.036 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 85.85 1.99 75.29 823.1% Bullish BLUE -.055 .134 .079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 9.03 .6 7.57 1117.1% ------- BLUE .035 -.051 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 13.22 1.14 9.59 2112% Bullish BLUE .029 -.065 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 28.1 1.29 22.63 1417.7% Bullish BLUE .044 -.183 -.139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 134.25 .67 129.08 227.2% Bullish BLUE .066 .024 .09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 164.56 1.08 155.85 254.8% Bullish BLUE .003 -.023 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 17.22 .52 17.76 -185.8% Bearish ---- -.136 -.019 -.155 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 318.45 10.17 317.8 182% ------- BLUE .069 .315 .384 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 23.73 .89 21.69 301.3% Bullish BLUE .038 .092 .13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 79.48 -2 71.41 476.3% ------- RED .029 -.105 -.076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 28.65 -.42 29.66 -199.5% Bearish RED -.153 -.09 -.243 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.39 .19 27.06 -160.5% Bearish ---- -.365 -.067 -.432 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.44 .11 8.7 -164.2% ------- BLUE -.04 -.031 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.24 4.06 29.18 958.8% Bearish BLUE .001 -.535 -.534 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/11/22 Bullish = 41 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 1 .642 .714 .785 .785 BIGBANKS 1 1 .714 .857 .857 .857 ===== COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOMEBLDG .944 .888 .166 .222 .222 .222 MARIJUAN .9 .6 .5 .5 .4 .5 GOLD .891 .869 .782 .782 .63 .608 DJI-13 .846 .923 .769 .846 .769 .769 JETS .846 .692 .615 .692 .769 .615 COAL .833 .833 .833 .833 1 1 CHEM .826 .804 .521 .63 .652 .586 INFRA .818 .787 .636 .696 .666 .636 DOWJONES .8 .833 .6 .733 .666 .633 ===== NSURANC .8 .88 .68 .8 .8 .84 REGBANKS .8 .84 .64 .68 .64 .64 SP-100 .8 .8 .555 .7 .644 .588 TRANSP .789 .684 .421 .631 .578 .526 RETAIL .787 .787 .446 .723 .617 .595 GUNS .769 .692 .461 .692 .692 .692 INDEXES .767 .724 .437 .518 .475 .443 ETFS .763 .672 .436 .527 .472 .436 INDMATER .763 .708 .541 .638 .652 .625 FINANCE .762 .787 .55 .65 .6 .6 FIDSTKS .751 .727 .502 .603 .538 .508 OILGAS .745 .726 .622 .735 .745 .745 SP500 .741 .723 .476 .557 .525 .49 ===== AUTO .735 .641 .49 .603 .547 .49 COMODITY .692 .666 .512 .769 .666 .666 MILITARY .692 .73 .576 .769 .692 .653 ELECTRON .691 .586 .428 .466 .406 .353 HIGHPRIC .691 .64 .328 .406 .382 .363 SEMI .684 .578 .357 .4 .347 .273 FOOD .673 .612 .51 .755 .653 .653 EDU .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 .833 NASD-100 .66 .59 .4 .44 .42 .35 ===== COMPUTER .65 .55 .4 .5 .5 .35 HOSPITAL .642 .428 .214 .285 .285 .357 REIT .584 .561 .3 .33 .33 .338 GAMING .578 .526 .473 .578 .526 .526 GREEN .578 .526 .421 .526 .368 .263 SOFTWARE .553 .482 .267 .303 .267 .232 NIFTY .545 .477 .34 .363 .363 .318 =================================================================================================== HACKERS .5 .5 .312 .312 .312 .312 =================================================================================================== RUS-1000 .498 .458 .301 .351 .321 .313 SOLAR .437 .437 .125 .062 .062 .062 BIOTECH .432 .396 .294 .325 .319 .314 UTILITY .368 .368 .184 .184 .157 .184 LOWPRICE .318 .271 .238 .254 .252 .232 CHINA .24 .24 .2 .22 .22 .24 BONDFUND .091 .103 .034 .034 .057 .034 |
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Monday --- 5:45 AM Futures: DJI -29 NASDAQ-47
Data Used: 11/11/2022
11-10 DJIA 33715.37 1201.43 +3.70% S&P 500 3956.37 207.80 +5.54% Nasdaq 11114.15 760.97 +7.35% |
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Hopes that
inflation is ebbing and the FED will stop raising interest rates had an enormous effect on the stock market today. The 7.7% annual CPI increase remains very high, but optimists dominated the market. Look at Table 3 below. Only nine groupings of stocks now show a majority of their stocks below the 65-dma. Bonds turned up smartly and the 10-year rates broke their uptrend. That sent the beaten-down tech stocks into a buying frenzy. The DJI rose above its megaphone falling resistance line. There are not many cases like this. But back in 1934, that is what the DJI did, thereby showing Wall Street was back on the way back up. The SP-500 is now back above its 65-dma. SOXL shot back up to its 65-dma. The FED has not yet responded. But Gold stocks, as represented by NUGT, broke out above their 65-dma. In the DJI-30, GS was the clear leader. They are very "well-connected". See how their strength has anticipated the rally. We would do well to watch them closely now. In the DJI, the biggest gainers included Home Depot, a clear beneficiary of a halt to rising rates, MSFT, which responds closely to the drops in the 10-year rate, CRM which has been heavily shorted. Covering our MINCP shorts is suggested. Buy more of the "DJI-boomers", like CAT, AAPL and GS. |
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Charts - 11/10/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81110.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-10/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-10/BEARISH.htm |
v |
11-10 DJIA 33715.37 1201.43 +3.70% S&P 500 3956.37 207.80 +5.54% Nasdaq 11114.15 760.97 +7.35% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,389 3,297 3,330 Advances 2,902 615 1,297 Declines 375 2,563 1,889 Unchanged 112 119 144 New highs 75 37 52 New lows 50 167 264 Adv. volume* 1,068,161,874 81,447,340 431,111,275 Decl. volume* 109,433,410 850,103,135 506,823,298 Total volume* 1,180,872,819 938,333,535 945,992,189 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.15 2.42 0.74 Block trades* 5,922 5,112 5,020 Adv. volume 5,008,889,097 415,288,208 2,203,571,807 Decl. volume 743,655,807 4,189,260,081 2,359,219,552 Total volume 5,781,268,556 4,645,015,265 4,625,298,599 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 5,000 4,888 4,879 Advances 3,817 1,098 1,839 Declines 929 3,523 2,755 Unchanged 254 267 285 New highs 139 85 73 New lows 211 511 373 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.39 1.50 1.02 Block trades 34,435 26,488 29,559 Adv. volume 5,852,386,047 848,680,725 2,001,359,928 Decl. volume 560,221,622 4,090,137,503 3,062,727,462 Total volume 6,433,000,027 4,977,465,033 5,102,199,495 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/10/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 2 CORN, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 337.26 11.92 324.14 266.8% Bullish BLUE .109 0 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11114.15 760.97 10475.25 368.3% Bullish BLUE -.011 -.128 -.139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 394.69 20.56 376.35 314.3% Bullish BLUE .061 -.07 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 282.75 19.43 264.68 419.8% Bullish BLUE .036 -.124 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 459.38 25.17 438.93 317.1% Bullish BLUE .132 -.034 .098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 185.38 10.75 178.68 255.4% Bullish BLUE .068 -.058 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 83.86 11.1 73.28 989.1% Bullish BLUE .033 .116 .149 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.43 1.59 7.34 713.9% ------- BLUE .04 -.128 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 12.08 2.84 8.99 2283.1% Bullish BLUE .048 -.208 -.16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 26.81 5.35 21.54 1452% Bullish BLUE .073 -.239 -.166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 133.58 4.53 128.34 215.6% Bullish BLUE .056 .031 .087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 163.48 4.83 156.47 373% Bullish BLUE -.008 -.042 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.7 .14 17.86 -83.9% Bearish BLUE -.092 -.083 -.175 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 308.28 6.8 307.15 123.8% ------- RED .113 .218 .331 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.84 .7 22.39 502.2% ------- BLUE -.025 .012 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 81.48 6.89 72.36 614.1% Bullish BLUE .1 -.102 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.07 -.68 29.83 -222.9% Bearish RED -.132 -.07 -.202 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.2 -.37 27.25 -176.1% Bearish RED -.326 -.093 -.419 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.33 -.02 8.72 -174.7% ------- RED -.047 -.093 -.14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 30.18 4.54 28.76 1247.2% Bearish BLUE .002 -.617 -.615 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/10/22 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE 1 .642 .714 .785 .714 .714 BIGBANKS 1 .714 .857 .857 .857 .714 COPPER 1 1 1 1 1 .428 DJI-13 .923 .769 .846 .769 .769 .769 HOMEBLDG .888 .166 .222 .222 .222 .166 INSURANC .88 .68 .8 .8 .84 .64 GOLD .869 .782 .782 .63 .608 .195 REGBANKS .84 .64 .68 .64 .64 .6 COAL .833 .833 .833 1 1 .666 DOWJONES .833 .6 .733 .666 .633 .533 ----- CHEM .804 .521 .652 .63 .608 .456 SP-100 .8 .555 .7 .644 .577 .488 FINANCE .787 .55 .65 .587 .6 .462 INFRA .787 .636 .696 .666 .636 .515 RETAIL .787 .446 .723 .617 .595 .489 MILITARY .73 .576 .769 .692 .653 .538 FIDSTKS .727 .502 .603 .538 .497 .426 OILGAS .726 .622 .735 .745 .745 .669 INDEXES .724 .437 .518 .475 .448 .329 SP500 .723 .476 .557 .521 .486 .41 ===== INDMATER .708 .541 .638 .652 .625 .472 GUNS .692 .461 .692 .692 .692 .461 JETS .692 .615 .692 .769 .615 .461 TRANSP .684 .421 .631 .578 .473 .368 ETFS .672 .436 .527 .472 .436 .163 COMODITY .666 .512 .743 .666 .666 .487 EDU .666 .666 .833 .833 .833 .666 AUTO .641 .49 .603 .547 .49 .415 HIGHPRIC .64 .328 .406 .382 .351 .296 FOOD .612 .51 .734 .653 .653 .551 MARIJUAN .6 .5 .5 .4 .5 .5 NASD-100 .59 .4 .44 .42 .35 .26 ==== ELECTRON .586 .428 .466 .406 .345 .285 SEMI .578 .357 .4 .347 .263 .189 REIT .561 .292 .338 .338 .323 .253 COMPUTER .55 .4 .5 .5 .35 .25 GAMING .526 .473 .526 .578 .526 .368 GREEN .526 .421 .526 .368 .263 .263 ================================================================================================= HACKERS .5 .312 .312 .312 .312 .375 ================================================================================================= SOFTWARE .482 .285 .303 .267 .232 .232 NIFTY .477 .34 .363 .363 .318 .25 RUS-1000 .458 .303 .354 .324 .311 .26 SOLAR .437 .125 .062 .062 .062 .125 HOSPITAL .428 .214 .285 .285 .357 .285 BIOTECH .396 .292 .327 .319 .314 .305 UTILITY .368 .184 .184 .157 .184 .184 LOWPRICE .271 .24 .257 .252 .235 .207 CHINA .24 .2 .22 .22 .24 .18 BONDFUND .103 .034 .034 .057 .045 0 |
====================================================================================
Thursday
- 6:08 AM Futures: DJI +778 NASDAQ+426
Data Used: 11/9/2022
11-9 DJIA 32513.94 -646.89 -1.95% S&P 500 3748.57 -79.54 -2.08% Nasdaq 10353.17 -263.02 -2.48% |
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For the first time this year, the 12-month CPI numbers fell below 8%. This gives traders hope that the FED will not be raising rates nearly so much as Powell has recently warned Wall Stret to expect. Let's see what Powell now says. Megaphone price patterns like the one the DJI shows are known for being especially volatile. They can break out to the upside. Very good advances have been made in the SPY and QQQ when they showed such pattern-breakouts, so, let's not sell these short until we see how they fare today.. We are only short some of the most bearish MINCPs. Today's apparent big rally still must cope with the overhead resistance of the DJI-30's and the falling 65-dma for NASDAQ, QQQ and SPY. The DJI-30 "boomer"s should be considered to be the leaders and the ones to own while their 5-dma's are risng. I would prefer buying AMGN, UNH and AAPL to buying DIA. There are a number of bullish MAXCPs that seem to rise every day. Buy these provided you have bearish MINCP shorts, too. Profit-taking was expected after the Election. DIS's 12 point decline on poorer than expected earnings shows that the DJI-30 is not immune to pot-holes and trap-doors. Among the "boomers" in the DJI-30, we saw new weakness as V, CHV and high-priced UNH as their 5-day ma turned down. Most worrisome were the new lows in tech leaders AMZN and TSLA. The tech sector as measured by QQQ and the NASDAQ have woefully fallen behind the DJI ny almost 15% for the last 50-trading days. SPY lags by 11.9% for the same interval. The blue chip boomers in the DJI quite naturally are reaping new investment money from the falling bonds and former leading big techs. I expect this divergence to widen until the end of the year. This may allow the DJI to keep rising. Hedging with bearish MINCPs other than bomds seems approriate. Watch AAPL. It is testing key support. It should rally nicely today. |
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Charts - 11/9/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81109.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-9/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-9/BEARISH.htm |
DJI shows a bearish megaphone pattern and Peerless Sells that have not been reversed with DJI at 200-dma and 50% retracement level. |
Despite
DJI's 500 point drop today, its 5-day ma is still rising as are the 21-dma of its Closing and Opening Power. The steep Clos.Pwr. uptrend was broken, It appears as though DIA has support at 319-320. =============================================================== |
Holding up the DJIA are its biggest price boosters now: AMGN, GS, MRK and CAT. |
Several of its biggest recent
boosters, UNH, VISA and CVX weakened and saw their 5-dma turn down. |
Making special trouble for the DJI-30 was Disney which broke
support and fell 13 today. |
AAPL is the key stock to watch today. Not
only is in the DJI-30, it is the single biggest component in the QQQ and SPY. It is at key support. |
Two tech giants that also heavily
influence the direction of the SP-500, SPY, NASDAQ, and QQQ crashed to new lows: TSLA and AMZN and GOOG. Their weakness explains why the QQQ in now under-performing DIA by almost 15% over the last 50 trading days. GOOG's effort to rally seems to have failed. Note all the red warnings on these stocks. |
Table 1 Breadth Statistics11-9 DJIA 32513.94 -646.89 -1.95% S&P 500 3748.57 -79.54 -2.08% Nasdaq 10353.17 -263.02 -2.48% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,297 3,308 3,294 Advances 615 1,947 709 Declines 2,563 1,232 2,469 Unchanged 119 129 116 New highs 37 77 67 New lows 167 97 142 Adv. volume* 81,447,340 587,162,558 101,801,694 very low Decl. volume* 850,103,135 333,155,579 945,019,006 Total volume* 938,333,535 935,806,546 1,051,969,123 Closing Arms (TRIN) 2.42 0.90 2.05 Block trades* 5,112 5,030 4,700 Adv. volume 415,288,208 2,888,765,000 600,128,741 Decl. volume 4,189,260,081 1,642,621,011 4,274,569,373 Total volume 4,645,015,265 4,607,647,058 4,899,004,808 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,888 4,866 4,848 Advances 1,098 2,370 1,217 Declines 3,523 2,205 3,400 Unchanged 267 291 231 New highs 85 111 116 New lows 511 296 248 ugly Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.50 0.88 1.55 Block trades 26,488 28,353 29,999 Adv. volume 848,680,725 2,799,854,544 1,011,578,129 Decl. volume 4,090,137,503 2,302,366,594 4,389,831,733 Total volume 4,977,465,033 5,134,509,231 5,436,426,385 Total volume 5,134,509,231 4,456,695,568 4,677,524,140 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/9/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 4 RETL, SOXL, TECL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 325.34 -6.37 319.87 61.2% Bullish RED .037 ---- ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10353.18 -263.02 10342.94 -81.7% ------- RED -.073 -.152 -.225 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 374.13 -7.87 371.01 -9.8% Bullish RED -.035 -.083 -.118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 263.32 -6.22 260.49 -44.4% ------- RED -.053 -.148 -.201 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 434.21 -9.38 431.59 17.7% Bullish RED .047 -.052 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 174.63 -4.93 176.3 -80.2% ------- RED .017 -.077 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.76 -3.82 69.33 74.4% Bullish RED -.039 -.021 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 6.84 -.8 7.38 -269% ------- RED -.053 -.301 -.354 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 9.24 -.93 7.89 557% ------- RED -.023 -.384 -.407 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 21.46 -1.78 20.46 -224.3% Bullish RED -.013 -.379 -.392 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 129.05 -1.3 128.02 57.1% Bullish RED .02 .042 .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 158.65 -.8 151.81 201.7% Bullish RED -.076 -.035 -.111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.56 -.67 16.99 -181% Bearish RED -.098 -.077 -.175 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 301.48 -16.28 300.63 155.7% Bullish RED .107 .222 .329 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.14 0 20.65 327.6% ------- RED -.071 .013 -.058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 74.59 .7 72.52 323.5% ------- BLUE -.009 -.131 -.14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.75 .22 30.4 -66.9% Bearish BLUE -.035 -.002 -.037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.57 -.27 27.15 -143.8% ------- RED -.195 -.042 -.237 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.35 -.19 8.63 -173.5% ------- RED -.042 -.032 -.074 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 25.64 -3.49 23.39 536.6% Bearish RED -.044 -.615 -.659 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/9/22 Bullish = 21 Bearish = 27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COPPER 1 1 1 1 .428 .428 COAL .833 .833 1 1 .666 .666 GOLD .782 .782 .63 .608 .195 .173 DJI-13 .769 .846 .769 .769 .769 .692 BIGBANKS .714 .857 .857 .857 .714 .857 INSURANC .68 .8 .8 .84 .64 .64 EDU .666 .833 .833 .833 .666 .666 BEVERAGE .642 .714 .785 .714 .714 .5 REGBANKS .64 .68 .64 .64 .6 .64 INFRA .636 .696 .666 .636 .515 .424 OILGAS .622 .735 .745 .745 .679 .66 JETS .615 .692 .769 .615 .461 .461 DOWJONES .6 .733 .666 .633 .533 .533 ===== MILITARY .576 .769 .692 .653 .538 .615 SP-100 .555 .7 .644 .577 .488 .511 FINANCE .55 .65 .587 .587 .462 .487 INDMATER .541 .638 .652 .625 .472 .402 CHEM .521 .652 .652 .586 .478 .413 COMODITY .512 .743 .641 .666 .487 .41 FOOD .51 .734 .632 .653 .551 .489 FIDSTKS .502 .603 .538 .497 .426 .449 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARIJUAN .5 .5 .4 .5 .5 .4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUTO .49 .603 .547 .49 .396 .452 SP500 .476 .557 .521 .482 .412 .432 ===== GAMING .473 .526 .526 .578 .368 .526 GUNS .461 .692 .692 .692 .461 .692 RETAIL .446 .723 .617 .595 .489 .446 INDEXES .437 .518 .475 .448 .335 .318 ETFS .436 .527 .472 .436 .181 .181 ELECTRON .428 .466 .406 .345 .278 .285 GREEN .421 .526 .368 .263 .263 .21 TRANSP .421 .631 .578 .473 .368 .421 COMPUTER .4 .5 .5 .35 .25 .35 NASD-100 .4 .44 .42 .35 .26 .28 SEMI .357 .4 .347 .263 .178 .21 NIFTY .34 .363 .363 .318 .25 .25 HIGHPRIC .328 .406 .382 .351 .292 .289 HACKERS .312 .312 .312 .312 .375 .437 RUS-1000 .303 .356 .326 .313 .258 .268 BIOTECH .292 .325 .322 .314 .305 .316 REIT .292 .33 .346 .33 .246 .253 SOFTWARE .285 .321 .267 .232 .232 .285 LOWPRICE .24 .26 .254 .235 .207 .216 HOSPITAL .214 .285 .285 .357 .285 .428 CHINA .2 .22 .22 .24 .18 .18 UTILITY .184 .184 .157 .184 .184 .157 HOMEBLDG .166 .222 .222 .222 .166 .166 SOLAR .125 .062 .062 .062 .125 .125 BONDFUND .034 .034 .057 .045 .011 0 |
=================================================================================
Wednesday - 6:10 AM Futures: DJI -202
NASDAQ -76 Data
Used: 11/8/2012
11-8 DJIA 33160.83 333.83 +1.02% S&P 500 3828.11 21.31 + 0.56% Nasdaq 10616.20 51.68 + 0.49% |
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The bulls'
expectation of a vast "red tide" has been somewhat disappointed. But it appears that the Republicans will take control of the House. This will stop all the Democrat investigations of Trump and January 6. It will bring about political stalemate, namely no new investigations of Big business or Wall Street, no anti-trust investigations of Google, Tesla, Facebook, etc., no new business or wealth taxes and no more limiting of carbon emissions. Most likely Biden will have to bargain with Republicans to get a higher debt limit. All told, this is exactly what Wall Street wanted. Still, the market may retreat for a while. Short some bearish MINCPS. Bearish is the still extant megaphone pattern in the DJI, the absence of SPY, NASDAQ and QQQ confirmations of the strength shown by the DJI, the coming this week of a new CPI-inflation report and the natural urge to take profits in the DJI following the partisan rally. But before we go short DIA or QQQ again we will need to see the leading DJI stocks shown below (AMGN, GS, MCD, CAT and UNH) break their price uptrends, their rising Closing Power uptrends and their rising 5-day ma. The reason these must weaken is because these stocks have much more weight in the DJIA. In addition, we will want to see new weakness in the QQQ and the NASDAQ. Stocks like AMZN, GOOG, MSFT and Facebook have been much weaker than the DJI over the last 50-trading days. They along with AAPL are the most heavily weighted components in the QQQ and SPY. Watch to see if SOXL turns back down, too. Hedging long the Bullish MAXCPs and short the Bearish MINCPs seems the best way to go now until the leading DJI-stocks break their UP-ntrends or QQQ and SPY are again turned back down at their 65-dma. Watch GLD and SLV. They just made minor breakouts at the same time the 5-day ma of bonds has turned up. This may mean that the FED will be backing way from a rate hike in December. |
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Charts - 11/8/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs Recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://www.tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81108.bmp MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-8/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-8/BEARISH.htm |
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Table 111-8 DJIA 33160.83 333.83 1.02 S&P 500 3828.11 21.31 0.56 Nasdaq 10616.20 51.68 0.49 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,308 3,325 3,343 Advances 1,947 2,007 1,890 Declines 1,232 1,155 1,315 Unchanged 129 163 138 New highs 77 79 98 New lows 97 145 89 Adv. volume* 587,162,558 568,743,595 593,123,536 Decl. volume* 333,155,579 335,138,101 313,527,195 Total volume* 935,806,546 909,597,724 928,097,637 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.90 1.20 0.71 Block trades* 5,030 5,272 5,019 Adv. volume 2,888,765,000 2,547,088,912 2,924,664,388 Decl. volume 1,642,621,011 1,764,804,742 1,449,831,644 Total volume 4,607,647,058 4,341,624,918 4,481,211,838 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,866 4,933 4,972 Advances 2,370 2,550 2,641 Declines 2,205 2,090 2,041 Unchanged 291 293 290 New highs 111 100 140 New lows 296 272 162 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.88 0.88 1.28 Block trades 28,353 22,588 25,912 Adv. volume 2,799,854,544 2,538,287,982 2,311,332,463 Decl. volume 2,302,366,594 1,821,603,450 2,289,547,597 Total volume 5,134,509,231 4,456,695,568 4,677,524,140 |
Table 2Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/8/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 4 SOXL, TECL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 331.71 3.29 321.36 81.8% Bullish BLUE .062 0 ==== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10616.2 51.68 10524.8 -130% ------- BLUE -.044 -.15 -.194 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 382 2.05 374.87 -33.4% Bullish BLUE -.021 -.084 -.105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 269.54 1.95 265.68 -104.4% ------- BLUE -.034 -.148 -.182 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 443.59 .76 432.66 -22.8% Bullish ---- .081 -.055 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 179.56 .07 177.49 -112.2% Bullish RED .058 -.074 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 76.58 1.29 71.67 138% Bullish BLUE -.045 .007 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 7.64 .07 7.24 -410.2% ------- RED .007 -.252 -.245 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 10.17 .58 8.24 610.6% Bullish BLUE -.001 -.357 -.358 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 23.24 .61 22.45 -403.5% Bullish ---- 0 -.358 -.358 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 130.35 1.27 127.58 23.3% Bullish BLUE .059 .035 .094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 159.45 3.6 152.39 194.5% Bullish BLUE -.07 -.048 -.118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 17.23 -.53 17.19 63.4% Bearish RED -.097 -.086 -.183 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 317.76 -.04 291.92 324% Bullish RED .157 .217 .374 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.14 .45 20.73 279.6% ------- BLUE -.058 -.011 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 73.89 2.48 69.93 149.5% ------- BLUE .036 -.161 -.125 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.53 -.13 30.15 -81.6% Bearish RED -.017 -.02 -.037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.84 -.22 27.35 -163% ------- RED -.092 -.048 -.14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.54 -.16 8.65 -342.2% ------- RED -.042 -.046 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 29.13 -.05 22.78 1317.5% ------- BLUE -.014 -.607 -.621 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/8/22 Bullish =30 Bearish = 17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COPPER 1 1 1 .428 .428 .571 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .714 .857 .714 DJI-13 .846 .769 .769 .769 .692 .769 COAL .833 1 1 .666 .666 .666 EDU .833 .833 .833 .666 .666 .666 INSURANC .8 .8 .84 .64 .64 .68 GOLD .782 .63 .608 .195 .173 .391 MILITARY .769 .692 .653 .538 .615 .73 COMODITY .743 .641 .641 .487 .41 .512 OILGAS .735 .745 .745 .679 .66 .726 FOOD .734 .632 .632 .551 .489 .571 DOWJONES .733 .666 .633 .533 .533 .6 ===== RETAIL .723 .617 .595 .489 .446 .617 BEVERAGE .714 .785 .714 .714 .5 .642 SP-100 .7 .644 .577 .488 .511 .577 INFRA .696 .666 .636 .515 .424 .575 GUNS .692 .692 .692 .461 .692 .769 JETS .692 .769 .615 .461 .461 .538 REGBANKS .68 .64 .64 .6 .64 .64 CHEM .652 .652 .608 .456 .413 .521 FINANCE .65 .587 .587 .45 .487 .537 INDMATER .638 .652 .625 .472 .402 .569 TRANSP .631 .578 .473 .368 .421 .578 AUTO .603 .547 .49 .396 .433 .528 FIDSTKS .603 .538 .497 .426 .443 .556 SP500 .557 .521 .482 .408 .428 .519 ===== ETFS .527 .472 .436 .181 .181 .29 GAMING .526 .526 .526 .421 .526 .526 GREEN .526 .368 .263 .263 .21 .263 INDEXES .518 .475 .448 .335 .318 .502 COMPUTER .5 .5 .35 .25 .3 .45 MARIJUAN .5 .4 .5 .5 .4 .6 ============================================================================================== ELECTRON .466 .406 .345 .278 .285 .345 NASD-100 .44 .42 .35 .26 .28 .35 HIGHPRIC .406 .382 .351 .292 .292 .406 SEMI .4 .347 .263 .178 .2 .252 NIFTY .363 .363 .318 .25 .25 .295 RUS-1000 .356 .329 .316 .26 .26 .346 REIT .33 .338 .338 .253 .238 .353 BIOTECH .325 .319 .316 .305 .319 .349 SOFTWARE .321 .285 .232 .232 .267 .41 HACKERS .312 .312 .312 .375 .437 .5 HOSPITAL .285 .285 .357 .285 .428 .5 LOWPRICE .263 .254 .238 .207 .213 .257 HOMEBLDG .222 .222 .222 .166 .166 .444 CHINA .22 .22 .24 .18 .18 .2 UTILITY .184 .157 .184 .184 .157 .184 SOLAR .062 .062 .062 .125 .125 .125 BONDFUND .034 .057 .045 .011 .011 0 |
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Tuesday - 6:13
AM Futures: DJI
+119 NASDAQ +70 Data Used:
11/7/2012
11-7 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 32827.00 423.78 1.31 S&P 500 3806.80 36.25 0.96 Nasdaq 10564.52 89.27 0.85 |
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Today Republicans will be winning the House and the
Senate back. At least, that is how we can interpret the big rally at this time. The market anticipates government by stalemate. No new taxes. No new regulations. More money for the military and nothing to stop coal and the oil/gas industries. The DJI's megaphone pattern may be broken out of to the upside. The Peerless Sell S9/S12 will have to be replaced with bets on the leading DJI-30 stocks shown below for as long as their uptrending Closing Powers and 5-day ma averages will let us stay in them. What could change this picture? A climactic blow-off by the DJI and reversal back down occasioned by a more qualified Republicn victory and a CPI number in the nines later this week. First, the 5-day ma would have to turn back down for DIA and its Closing Power uptrend would have to be broken. For now with SPY and QQQ still well below their 30-week ma, the DJI-30 and its leading stocks (shown below), oil/gas leaders and the Bullish MAXCPa are what we must play on the long side. DIA is way too strong to be short, but there are plenty of bearish MINCPs to hedge with. Year-end tax loss selling will start soon to work against these revovering. |
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Charts - 11/7/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81107..BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11/7/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-7/BEARISH.htm |
Table 111-7 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 32827.00 423.78 1.31 S&P 500 3806.80 36.25 0.96 Nasdaq 10564.52 89.27 0.85 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,325 3,293 3,358 Advances 2,007 2,250 1,501 Declines 1,155 915 1,708 Unchanged 163 128 149 New highs 79 85 94 New lows 145 217 109 Adv. volume* 568,743,595 818,653,877 501,151,443 Decl. volume* 335,138,101 256,017,306 689,267,287 Total volume* 909,597,724 1,079,098,430 1,200,689,966 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.20 0.86 0.96 Block trades* 5,272 5,755 5,094 Adv. volume 2,547,088,912 3,973,988,336 2,275,808,570 Decl. volume 1,764,804,742 1,394,902,321 2,490,943,349 Total volume 4,341,624,918 5,400,187,067 4,820,628,439 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,933 4,898 4,928 Advances 2,550 2,681 2,094 Declines 2,090 1,902 2,552 Unchanged 293 315 282 New highs 100 93 138 New lows 272 353 167 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.88 1.03 1.25 Block trades 22,588 28,251 24,379 Adv. volume 2,538,287,982 3,123,882,125 1,863,392,721 Decl. volume 1,821,603,450 2,292,934,976 2,848,360,129 Total volume 4,456,695,568 5,453,752,777 4,753,742,405 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/7/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 4 RETL, SOXL, TECL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 328.42 4.28 326.41 15.4% Bullish BLUE .038 0 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10564.52 89.27 10890.85 -199% ------- BLUE -.048 -.147 -.195 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 379.95 3.6 384.52 -82.7% Bullish BLUE -.039 -.08 -.119 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 267.59 2.91 275.11 -192.7% ------- BLUE -.042 -.147 -.189 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 442.83 3.9 445.59 -10.7% Bullish BLUE .076 -.047 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 179.49 .81 183.58 -106.7% Bullish RED .049 -.067 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 75.29 2.01 74.57 107.6% Bullish BLUE -.074 -.017 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 7.57 .23 8.26 -384.3% ------- ---- .004 -.256 -.252 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 9.59 .6 9.1 388.3% ------- BLUE -.025 -.417 -.442 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 22.63 1.09 25.05 -670.5% ------- BLUE -.012 -.386 -.398 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 129.08 .74 129.75 19.1% Bullish BLUE .045 .033 .078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 155.85 -.62 153.46 128.6% ------- RED -.175 -.054 -.229 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 17.76 -.1 17.01 335.6% ------- RED -.098 -.007 -.105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 317.8 10.65 298.12 319.1% Bullish BLUE .132 .255 .387 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 21.69 -.7 20.95 318.8% ------- RED -.074 -.04 -.114 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 71.41 -.95 71.75 9.1% Bearish RED .042 -.184 -.142 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.66 -.17 30.02 -61.5% Bearish ---- .014 .001 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.06 -.19 27.73 -63.9% Bullish RED -.027 -.006 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.7 -.02 9.14 -158.7% Bullish ---- .012 .024 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 29.18 .42 22.46 1950.4% ------- RED -.04 -.603 -.643 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/7/22 Bullish = 28 Bearish = 21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COAL 1 1 .666 .666 .833 .5 COPPER 1 1 .428 .428 .571 .285 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .714 .857 .714 .714 EDU .833 .833 .666 .666 .666 .5 INSURANC .8 .84 .64 .64 .68 .68 BEVERAGE .785 .714 .714 .5 .642 .785 DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .692 .769 .769 JETS .769 .615 .461 .461 .538 .461 OILGAS .745 .745 .679 .66 .726 .716 GUNS .692 .692 .461 .692 .769 .615 MILITARY .692 .653 .538 .615 .73 .692 DOWJONES .666 .633 .533 .533 .566 .6 ===== INFRA .666 .636 .515 .424 .575 .515 CHEM .652 .608 .478 .391 .543 .5 INDMATER .652 .625 .472 .402 .569 .5 SP-100 .644 .577 .488 .511 .566 .555 COMODITY .641 .641 .461 .41 .512 .333 REGBANKS .64 .64 .6 .64 .64 .64 FOOD .632 .632 .53 .489 .571 .387 GOLD .63 .608 .195 .173 .391 .282 RETAIL .617 .595 .489 .446 .617 .617 FINANCE .587 .587 .45 .475 .537 .537 TRANSP .578 .473 .368 .421 .578 .578 AUTO .547 .49 .396 .433 .528 .49 FIDSTKS .538 .497 .426 .443 .556 .544 GAMING .526 .526 .368 .578 .526 .473 SP500 .521 .482 .408 .424 .519 .496 COMPUTER .5 .35 .25 .3 .45 .3 ============================================================================================== INDEXES .475 .448 .335 .318 .497 .475 ETFS .472 .436 .181 .181 .29 .254 NASD-100 .42 .35 .26 .28 .35 .34 ELECTRON .406 .345 .278 .285 .33 .315 MARIJUAN .4 .5 .5 .4 .6 .7 HIGHPRIC .382 .351 .292 .292 .394 .382 GREEN .368 .263 .263 .21 .263 .368 NIFTY .363 .318 .25 .25 .295 .295 SEMI .347 .263 .178 .2 .231 .21 REIT .338 .33 .261 .246 .346 .33 RUS-1000 .329 .318 .263 .263 .341 .336 BIOTECH .319 .314 .308 .319 .349 .319 HACKERS .312 .312 .375 .437 .5 .562 HOSPITAL .285 .357 .285 .428 .5 .5 SOFTWARE .285 .25 .232 .267 .41 .428 LOWPRICE .257 .238 .21 .213 .254 .238 HOMEBLDG .222 .222 .166 .166 .388 .333 CHINA .22 .24 .18 .18 .2 .16 UTILITY .157 .184 .184 .157 .184 .184 SOLAR .062 .062 .125 .125 .125 .125 BONDFUND .057 .045 .011 .011 .011 0 |
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Monday - 6:13 AM Futures: DJI +117 NASDAQ
+38 Data Used: 11/4//2012
11-4 DJIA 32403.22 401.97 +1.26% S&P 500 3770.55 50.66 +1.36% Nasdaq 10475.25 132.31 +1.28% |
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The S9/S12 still stands, but the DJI rally
took along SPY and QQQ on Friday, a day which has given the market three straight big advances. A Republican victory is certainly expected by the market. We can see this from the strongest stock groups in Table 3. But the DJI advance may be nearing a top at its downtrendline, its falling 200-day ma and 50-retracement point. The DJI is getting too much focus. The advance is narrowing. There were many more new lows than new highs. The blue chips have advanced without SPY or QQQ, which are still below their 65-dma. The MINCPs show too many big plungers. This is not a healthy market advance. GS and CAT remain the DJI's biggest boomers. Let's see if UNH, the highest priced DJI-30 stock can come alive with a breakout. This week the inflation data is released. That may dampen the excitement of the bulls. Both Opening and CLosing Powers are rising for DIA. That should keep the DJI advance alive, but the 5-day ma is not. We may be very near the DJI's top. |
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Charts - 11/4/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81104..BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11/4/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-4/BEARISH.htm |
11-4 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 32403.22 401.97 +1.26% S&P 500 3770.55 50.66 +1.36% Nasdaq 10475.25 132.31 +1.28% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,293 3,330 3,320 Advances 2,250 1,297 2,420 Declines 915 1,889 759 Unchanged 128 144 141 New highs 85 52 89 New lows 217 264 113 ---- Adv. volume* 818,653,877 431,111,275 650,403,522 Decl. volume* 256,017,306 506,823,298 233,909,055 Total volume* 1,079,098,430 945,992,189 904,944,685 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.86 0.74 1.37 Block trades* 5,755 5,020 4,586 Adv. volume 3,973,988,336 2,203,571,807 3,041,219,308 Decl. volume 1,394,902,321 2,359,219,552 1,307,854,882 Total volume 5,400,187,067 4,625,298,599 4,459,411,631 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,898 4,879 4,888 Advances 2,681 1,839 3,150 Declines 1,902 2,755 1,488 Unchanged 315 285 250 New highs 93 73 121 New lows 353 373 196 ---- Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.03 1.02 1.05 Block trades 28,251 29,559 25,915 Adv. volume 3,123,882,125 2,001,359,928 3,145,441,196 Decl. volume 2,292,934,976 3,062,727,462 1,555,142,065 Total volume 5,453,752,777 5,102,199,495 4,731,943,156 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/4/2022 --- Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 5 COMPQX, RETL, SOXL, TECL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 324.14 4.27 327.42 -68.4% Bullish BLUE -.01 --- ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10475.25 132.31 10988.15 -291.2% ------- RED -.12 -.144 -.264 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 376.35 5.34 386.21 -166.2% ------- RED -.101 -.076 -.177 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 264.68 4.19 277.95 -303.9% ------- RED -.099 -.147 -.246 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 438.93 7.34 443.77 -58.2% Bullish BLUE .015 -.04 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 178.68 2.38 183.33 -123.9% ------- RED .011 -.059 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 73.28 3.95 73.73 -133.7% Bullish BLUE -.112 -.089 -.201 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 7.34 -.04 8.16 -603.9% ------- RED -.044 -.307 -.351 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 8.99 1.1 8.92 -292.1% ------- BLUE -.078 -.508 -.586 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 21.54 1.08 25.72 -1079.6% ------- RED -.063 -.449 -.512 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 128.34 .32 128.59 -52% Bullish RED .001 .034 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 156.47 4.66 151.91 108.5% Bullish BLUE -.17 -.017 -.187 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 17.86 .87 16.61 271.4% Bullish BLUE -.03 .033 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 307.15 6.52 298.7 290.3% Bullish RED .094 .227 .321 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 22.39 1.74 20.35 398.9% Bullish BLUE -.126 .03 -.096 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 72.36 -.16 71.28 103.8% ------- RED .03 -.146 -.116 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.83 -.57 30.03 8.3% Bearish RED .054 .055 .109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.25 .1 27.41 29.3% Bullish ---- .064 .069 .133 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.72 .09 8.98 96.7% ------- ---- .045 .112 .157 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 28.76 5.37 20.02 1589.8% ------- BLUE -.025 -.574 -.599 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA --- 11/4/22 Bullish = 23 Bearish = 25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COAL 1 .666 .666 .833 .666 .666 ===== COPPER 1 .428 .428 .571 .285 .285 BIGBANKS .857 .714 .857 .714 .714 .714 ===== INSURANC .84 .64 .64 .68 .72 .72 EDU .833 .666 .666 .666 .5 .5 DJI-13 .769 .692 .615 .692 .769 .923 OILGAS .745 .679 .66 .726 .716 .698 ===== BEVERAGE .714 .714 .5 .642 .714 .785 GUNS .692 .461 .692 .769 .615 .615 ===== MILITARY .653 .538 .615 .73 .692 .653 ===== COMODITY .641 .461 .384 .512 .333 .307 REGBANKS .64 .6 .64 .64 .64 .64 ===== INFRA .636 .515 .424 .575 .515 .515 DOWJONES .633 .533 .533 .566 .6 .7 ===== FOOD .632 .53 .469 .571 .387 .326 INDMATER .625 .472 .402 .569 .5 .5 JETS .615 .461 .461 .538 .461 .538 CHEM .608 .478 .413 .521 .521 .5 GOLD .608 .195 .173 .391 .282 .326 RETAIL .595 .489 .446 .617 .617 .638 FINANCE .587 .45 .475 .525 .537 .525 ===== SP-100 .577 .488 .511 .566 .566 .622 GAMING .526 .368 .526 .578 .473 .473 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARIJUAN .5 .5 .4 .6 .7 .4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIDSTKS .497 .426 .443 .556 .544 .591 AUTO .49 .396 .433 .528 .49 .471 SP500 .482 .408 .424 .517 .496 .525 TRANSP .473 .368 .421 .578 .473 .473 INDEXES .448 .335 .318 .497 .475 .508 ETFS .436 .181 .181 .29 .254 .29 HOSPITAL .357 .285 .428 .5 .5 .5 HIGHPRIC .351 .292 .292 .394 .386 .421 COMPUTER .35 .25 .3 .45 .3 .4 NASD-100 .35 .26 .28 .35 .35 .4 ELECTRON .345 .278 .285 .33 .308 .323 REIT .33 .253 .253 .353 .315 .323 NIFTY .318 .25 .25 .295 .295 .363 RUS-1000 .318 .265 .265 .344 .326 .346 BIOTECH .314 .305 .322 .349 .325 .338 HACKERS .312 .375 .437 .5 .562 .562 GREEN .263 .263 .21 .263 .368 .368 SEMI .263 .178 .2 .231 .2 .221 SOFTWARE .25 .25 .267 .41 .428 .464 CHINA .24 .18 .18 .2 .16 .18 LOWPRICE .24 .21 .216 .254 .235 .24 HOMEBLDG .222 .166 .166 .388 .333 .5 UTILITY .184 .184 .157 .184 .157 .236 SOLAR .062 .125 .125 .125 .125 .125 BONDFUND .045 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 |
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Friday - 6:05 AM Futures: DJI +188 NASDAQ
+88 Data Used: 11/3//2012
11-3 DJIA 32001.25 -146.51 -0.46% S&P 500 3719.89 -39.80 -1.06% Nasdaq 10342.94 -181.86 -1.73% |
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It would surprise
me if the DJI does not hold up until next Tuesday. The Jobs Report shows only a modest rise in Unemployment and 230,000+ new jobs for October were reported by the Labor Department. More important for the market is how the Republican partisans now expect to take the US House and Senate in next week's elections. DIA still shows a rising Opening and Closing Power. The DJI-30 is seen as the major haven for "blue chip" investors. Not Bonds which are down 30+% over the last year. Not SPY which is underperforming the DJIA by 7%+ over the last 50-trading days. And certainly QQQ which is down 14% more than the DJI over the last 50-trading days. The blue chips are huge companies. They can much better control their own destinies than can smaller companies of even big technology companies that face a more swiftly changing world. Tonight at Von's, I noticed that a bottle of Coca Cola which cost $2.10 last night, was tonight $2.40. Not enough difference to matter to a thirsty person. But its adds up. More and more stocks are breaking down badly with very little warning. We also have to be careful now because an S9-S12 delayed can be very dangerous. What would happen to the DJI-30 if its most heavily weighted stock, UNH, completes its bearish little head and shoulders pattern? Stay short DIA and some of the bearish MINCPs. I think the long side has too much risk in it. Take profits in QQQ. It is now back to the support of its lows. Biden and Democras have lost much of working class vote. That is why they will lose big next week. It is not only how little Democrats do to prevent jobs from going overseas or being automated. The Democrats led by President Biden seem very timid and out of touch. They have a wonderful issue in Social Security, for example, that they are afraid to touch. They could swear that they will protect it. Insecure job holders want this. A lot of Republicans can't make that pledge. Neither can the Democrats. Apparently, Wall Street funds the Democrats and the fund-masters there want social security on the budget chopping block. The corporate Democrats, led by Biden, say nothing. |
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Charts - 11/3/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81103..BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11/3/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-3/BEARISH.htm |
DJI is overbought with negative internal strength readings. It could not get past its resistance at its megaphone channel and its 50% retracement level. November is usally bullish. Much depends on the DJI's holding up. Up-day volume is dangerously low. So is S9-S12 combination when a decline is delayed. |
SPY is seriously under-performing the DJI and now shows weak internals. Much of its weakness owes to the declines in MSFT, GOOG and AMZN, apart from AAPL its biggest components. |
QQQ is now under-performing the DJI by 14.4% over last 50 trading
days. |
The DJI is now even more dependent on its most heavily weighted component - UNH - holding up. But what will happen if it completed its miniature head and shoulders pattern. Miight it tumble badly like more and more stocks are doing. |
TRAP-DOOR STOCKS TODAY Little warning in these should be an alert for us in any stock that has its Closing Power uptrend be broken. |
Table 1 - Breadth Statistics 11-3 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 32001.25 -146.51 -0.46% S&P 500 3719.89 -39.80 -1.06% Nasdaq 10342.94 -181.86 -1.73% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,330 3,294 3,339 Advances 1,297 709 1,746 Declines 1,889 2,469 1,423 Unchanged 144 116 170 New highs 52 67 76 New lows 264 142 128 Adv. volume* 431,111,275 101,801,694 563,883,379 Decl. volume* 506,823,298 945,019,006 444,120,825 Total volume* 945,992,189 1,051,969,123 1,017,590,985 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.74 2.05 1.10 Block trades* 5,020 4,700 4,886 Adv. volume 2,203,571,807 600,128,741 2,442,616,440 Decl. volume 2,359,219,552 4,274,569,373 2,199,063,957 Total volume 4,625,298,599 4,899,004,808 4,687,323,135 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,879 4,848 4,905 Advances 1,839 1,217 2,210 Declines 2,755 3,400 2,432 Unchanged 285 231 263 New highs 73 116 109 New lows 373 248 182 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.02 1.55 2.04 Block trades 29,559 29,999 26,909 Adv. volume 2,001,359,928 1,011,578,129 1,454,528,732 Decl. volume 3,062,727,462 4,389,831,733 3,270,155,335 Total volume 5,102,199,495 5,436,426,385 4,773,524,946 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/3/2022 Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 9 COMPQX, QQQ, FAS, RETL, SOXL, TECL, SOXL, GLD, CPER, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 319.87 -1.49 328.58 -9.1% Bullish BLUE -.061 ----- ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10342.94 -181.86 11102.45 -207.1% ------- RED -.179 -.138 -.317 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 371.01 -3.86 389.02 -117.1% ------- RED -.155 -.073 -.228 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 260.49 -5.19 281.22 -225.4% ------- RED -.163 -.143 -.306 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 431.59 -1.07 444.05 -51.3% ------- BLUE -.028 -.037 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 176.3 -1.19 183.16 -76.9% ------- BLUE -.025 -.053 -.078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.33 -2.34 75.23 -52.7% Bullish ---- -.156 -.095 -.251 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 7.38 .14 8.29 -351% ------- BLUE -.056 -.266 -.322 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 7.89 -.35 9.5 -355.7% ------- BLUE -.147 -.517 -.664 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 20.46 -1.99 26.74 -657% ------- RED -.13 -.447 -.577 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 128.02 .44 129.68 122.6% Bullish BLUE -.057 .038 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 151.81 -.58 153.16 -95.7% ------- BLUE -.214 -.04 -.254 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.99 -.2 16.94 -41.2% Bullish ---- -.02 -.031 -.051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 300.63 8.71 289.97 138.3% Bullish BLUE .123 .216 .339 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 20.65 -.08 20.74 -139.4% Bearish BLUE -.466 -.029 -.495 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 72.52 2.59 70.88 65.4% ------- BLUE .006 -.123 -.117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 30.4 .25 29.78 111.9% ------- ---- .129 .076 .205 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.15 -.2 27.09 -5.5% Bullish RED .07 .058 .128 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.63 -.02 8.55 5.7% ------- BLUE .033 .068 .101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 23.39 .61 21.74 -103.7% ------- BLUE -.124 -.597 -.721 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/3/22 Bullish = 12 Bearish = 36 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE .714 .5 .642 .714 .785 .571 BIGBANKS .714 .857 .714 .714 .714 .714 DJI-13 .692 .615 .692 .769 .846 .615 OILGAS .679 .66 .726 .716 .698 .698 COAL .666 .666 .833 .666 .666 .666 EDU .666 .666 .666 .5 .5 .5 INSURANC .64 .64 .68 .72 .72 .52 REGBANKS .6 .64 .64 .64 .64 .6 MILITARY .538 .615 .73 .692 .653 .615 DOWJONES .533 .533 .566 .6 .666 .533 ===== FOOD .53 .469 .551 .387 .326 .469 INFRA .515 .424 .575 .515 .515 .515 =============================================================================================== MARIJUAN .5 .4 .6 .7 .4 .3 =============================================================================================== RETAIL .489 .446 .617 .617 .638 .51 SP-100 .488 .511 .566 .566 .622 .477 CHEM .478 .413 .543 .5 .521 .478 INDMATER .472 .402 .569 .5 .5 .472 COMODITY .461 .384 .487 .333 .307 .487 GUNS .461 .692 .769 .615 .615 .615 JETS .461 .461 .538 .461 .538 .461 FINANCE .45 .475 .525 .525 .525 .45 FIDSTKS .426 .443 .556 .544 .585 .449 SP500 .408 .424 .517 .494 .523 .412 ===== AUTO .396 .433 .528 .49 .471 .433 COPPER .375 .375 .5 .25 .25 .75 HACKERS .375 .437 .5 .562 .562 .437 GAMING .368 .526 .526 .526 .473 .368 TRANSP .368 .421 .578 .473 .473 .315 INDEXES .335 .318 .497 .475 .486 .394 BIOTECH .305 .319 .352 .325 .341 .297 HIGHPRIC .292 .292 .394 .386 .417 .289 HOSPITAL .285 .428 .5 .5 .5 .428 ELECTRON .278 .285 .33 .308 .315 .315 RUS-1000 .265 .268 .346 .329 .334 .281 GREEN .263 .21 .263 .368 .368 .263 NASD-100 .26 .28 .35 .35 .4 .25 ===== REIT .253 .246 .361 .323 .3 .207 COMPUTER .25 .3 .45 .3 .4 .25 NIFTY .25 .25 .295 .295 .34 .295 SOFTWARE .25 .285 .41 .428 .446 .392 LOWPRICE .213 .216 .257 .235 .238 .243 GOLD .195 .173 .391 .282 .326 .434 UTILITY .184 .157 .184 .157 .21 .157 ETFS .181 .181 .29 .254 .309 .218 CHINA .18 .18 .2 .16 .18 .2 SEMI .178 .2 .231 .2 .21 .21 HOMEBLDG .166 .166 .388 .333 .5 .111 SOLAR .125 .125 .125 .125 .125 .125 BONDFUND .011 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 |
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Thursday - 5:45 AM Futures: DJI -168 NASDAQ -109
Data Used: 11/2//2012
11/2 DJIA 32147.76 -505.44 -1.55% S&P 500 3759.69 -96.41 -2.50% Nasdaq 10524.80 -366.05 -3.3% |
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Until Powell told the world that talk of a rate
hike was very "premature", it looked the DJI was going to have another good day. His words, alone, changed everything and the DJI fell more than 500. The reversal down gave technicians an emphatic sell. See the big red candle-sticks that today's late sell-off brought. Yesterday's break in the rising Closing Power uptrend was thereby reinforced. The QQQ and SPY were hit particularly hard and a two dozen, or so stocks dropped as through a "trap door", suddenly opened up beneath them. Suddenly all the buyers of the last three weeks disappeared and Professionals and market makers gave up trying to rig a false rally to drive shorts into covering.. The S9-S12 looks now looks only delayed in its effect unless Republican partisans who are eager to see their party take over the House and maybe the Senate wish to resume their celebration. That is still a possibility since the DJI's 5-day ma has not turned down. A closing about 200-DJI points lower will thereby certify the S9/S12. But given how weak the biggest SPY stocks are other than AAPL, a significant decline seems to be starting. The new 12-month lows made by MSFT, AMZN and GOOG seem particularly scary. If the 5-day ma does turn down next, I would consider the recent DJI rally to be quite bearish. The DJI even now is more than 4% over the 21-day ma with negative P-I, IP21, VI and OBV Pct readings. In addition, the longer term stochastics on the DJI have given sells and we see a number of optimized red Buys on such leveraged major market EFTs as SDOW (shown below) and FAZ (3x Financials down), TZA (3x small caps, down), MZZ (3x mid caps, down) and SRTY (3x Russell 200, down.) Charts of Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Sell your long bullish hedges at this time. Add more shorts from our bearish MINCPS for tonight |
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Charts - 11/2/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81102.BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11/2/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-2/BEARISH.htm |
11 - 2 11/2 DJIA 32147.76 -505.44 -1.55% S&P 500 3759.69 -96.41 -2.50% Nasdaq 10524.80 -366.05 -3.3% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,294 3,343 3,375 Advances 709 1,890 1,925 Declines 2,469 1,315 1,305 Unchanged 116 138 145 New highs 67 98 82 New lows 142 89 97 Adv. volume* 101,801,694 593,123,536 617,128,762 Decl. volume* 945,019,006 313,527,195 362,558,540 Total volume* 1,051,969,123 928,097,637 995,680,793 Closing Arms (TRIN) 2.05 0.71 0.94 Block trades* 4,700 5,019 5,208 Adv. volume 600,128,741 2,924,664,388 2,900,911,078 Decl. volume 4,274,569,373 1,449,831,644 1,843,247,415 Total volume 4,899,004,808 4,481,211,838 4,817,312,876 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,848 4,972 4,975 Advances 1,217 2,641 2,747 Declines 3,400 2,041 1,952 Unchanged 231 290 276 New highs 116 140 132 New lows 248 162 144 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.55 1.28 1.26 Block trades 29,999 25,912 32,314 Adv. volume 1,011,578,129 2,311,332,463 2,725,401,950 Decl. volume 4,389,831,733 2,289,547,597 2,432,373,732 Total volume 5,436,426,385 4,677,524,140 5,224,447,329. |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/2/2022 Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 CPPR, TECL, SOXL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 321.36 -5.05 320.46 46% Bullish RED -.058 0 ------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10524.8 -366.05 10792.68 -203.8% ------- RED -.117 -.126 -.243 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 374.87 -9.65 379.98 -93% Bullish RED -.128 -.067 -.195 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 265.68 -9.43 272.87 -221.1% ------- RED -.099 -.131 -.23 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 432.66 -12.93 436.11 -39.3% ------ RED -.015 -.037 -.052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 177.49 -6.09 179.09 -42.9% ------- RED -.004 -.047 -.051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.67 -2.9 70.1 219.5% Bullish RED -.138 -.059 -.197 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 7.24 -1.02 7.94 -358.3% ------- RED -.048 -.304 -.352 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 8.24 -.86 8.52 -427.3% ------- RED -.122 -.501 -.623 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 22.45 -2.6 23.71 411.6% ------- RED -.077 -.402 -.479 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 127.58 -2.17 124.88 38.3% Bullish RED -.074 .041 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 152.39 -1.07 154.74 -84.3% Bearish RED -.219 -.04 -.259 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 17.19 .18 17.13 67.9% Bullish BLUE .087 -.011 .076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 291.92 -6.2 292.49 -29.5% Bullish RED .123 .2 .323 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 20.73 -.22 21.23 -160% ------- RED -.219 -.045 -.264 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 69.93 -1.82 71.59 -63.1% ------- RED -.023 -.143 -.166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 30.15 .13 29.73 109% ------- BLUE .043 .061 .104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.35 -.38 27.18 11% Bullish ---- .118 .06 .178 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.65 -.49 8.62 5.7% ------- ---- .034 .072 .106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 22.78 .32 23.85 -665.2% Bearish RED -.154 -.609 -.763 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/2/22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS .857 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 GUNS .692 .769 .615 .615 .615 .384 COAL .666 .833 .666 .666 .666 .333 EDU .666 .666 .5 .5 .5 .5 OILGAS .66 .726 .716 .698 .698 .688 INSURANC .64 .68 .72 .72 .56 .48 REGBANKS .64 .64 .64 .64 .6 .6 DJI-13 .615 .692 .769 .846 .615 .615 MILITARY .615 .73 .692 .653 .615 .538 DOWJONES .533 .566 .6 .666 .533 .5 ==== GAMING .526 .526 .473 .526 .368 .368 SP-100 .511 .566 .566 .622 .477 .488 =============================================================================================== BEVERAGE .5 .642 .714 .785 .571 .5 =============================================================================================== FINANCE .475 .525 .525 .512 .462 .425 FOOD .469 .551 .367 .326 .469 .469 JETS .461 .538 .461 .538 .461 .461 RETAIL .446 .617 .617 .638 .51 .51 FIDSTKS .443 .556 .544 .585 .449 .449 HACKERS .437 .5 .562 .562 .5 .375 AUTO .433 .528 .49 .471 .433 .358 HOSPITAL .428 .5 .5 .5 .428 .428 INFRA .424 .575 .515 .515 .515 .484 SP500 .424 .517 .494 .521 .416 .408 ===== RANSP .421 .578 .473 .473 .315 .315 CHEM .413 .543 .521 .5 .5 .391 INDMATER .402 .569 .5 .5 .472 .486 MARIJUAN .4 .6 .7 .4 .3 .4 COMODITY .384 .487 .307 .307 .487 .487 COPPER .375 .5 .25 .25 .75 .75 BIOTECH .319 .349 .327 .341 .297 .314 INDEXES .318 .497 .475 .486 .389 .4 COMPUTER .3 .45 .3 .4 .25 .25 HIGHPRIC .292 .394 .386 .417 .289 .289 ELECTRON .285 .33 .308 .315 .293 .293 SOFTWARE .285 .428 .428 .446 .41 .321 NASD-100 .28 .35 .35 .4 .26 .29 ===== RUS-1000 .268 .349 .331 .336 .278 .27 NIFTY .25 .295 .295 .34 .295 .295 REIT .246 .353 .33 .307 .2 .207 LOWPRICE .218 .257 .238 .238 .243 .227 GREEN .21 .263 .368 .368 .263 .263 SEMI .2 .231 .2 .21 .189 .189 ETFS .181 .29 .254 .309 .254 .218 CHINA .18 .2 .16 .18 .2 .2 GOLD .173 .391 .282 .326 .434 .5 HOMEBLDG .166 .388 .333 .5 .111 .166 UTILITY .157 .184 .157 .21 .157 .157 SOLAR .125 .125 .125 .125 .125 .125 BONDFUND .011 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 |
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Wednesday - 6:08 AM Futures: DJI -63
NASDAQ +4 Data Used:
11/1//2012
Supplemental information on rising prices and profits added at 6:38
11-1 DJIA 32653.20 -79.75 -0.24% S&P 500 3856.10 -15.88 -0.41% Nasdaq 10890.85 -97.30 -0.89% |
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Wait for the Fed. That's what most
traders are doing. Our tools, however, may give us guidance now. The Peerless system is on a Sell S9/S12. With the DJI having reached the 8% band and a very weak IP21, we showed this is typically bearish and sometimes extremely bearish. An 8% paper loss on a combined S9-S12 was the biggest such paper loss since 1929. Occuring early in 1932, it led to a 50% decline after the DJI finally did peak. Today the DJI's steep Closing Power uptrend has finally been violated now that the DJI has reached its megaphone pattern resistance and made a 50% recovery. Such steep Closing Power uptrend-breaks as the DJI now shows can sometimes be premature. We may therefore want to watch DIA's price uptrend and also the direction of of its 5-day ma, now rising but positioned to start declining if DIA closes below its "pivot point". See the 5-day ma below in the 6-month charts. The key "pivot point" of the 5-dma is shown in the upper right corner of our yearly charts and in the candle- stick charts. In DIA's case, the 5-day ma will turn down if DIA closes under 318.38. We also see this information in the DJI's Peerless chart. The number there is 31839.11, about 800 points below today's close. This suggests the market may be waiting for Powell's speech as much as it is waiting to see what happens to interest rates. The 5-day ma is most useful when a week or long trend has been established and then there is a reversal. A steeply rising 5-day ma after a breakout is especially bullish. See Table 1 below for the rate of change of the 5-day ma in a few major ETFs. Our QuickSilver program will rank the stocks in a particular directory for the annualized rate of change of their 5-dma. This was intended for use with leveraged ETFs. As you can see from the last big DJI rally, the 5-dma turning down worked very well. With the 6-month charts you can also see volume more clearly. Watch now also to see if SPY, QQQ and NVDA can score breakouts above the resistance shown below. Blue Chip Sttrength The NY Times had an interesting article tonight about ineleastic demand curves in the biggest consumer blue chips and other like Chipotle. In effect, their consumers will pay higher prices and not reduce their demand when prices rise. They mentioned such companies as Colgate, Proctor and Gamble, Coca Cola, Pepsi and also Apple and Chipotle as using inflation to raise their prices faster than their costs are rising. The Times did not mention how consumers are buying now rather than waiting for more inflation. This helps explain the strength in the blue chips. It also shows how difficult it will be for the FED to put inflation back in the bottle. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/business/food-prices-profits.html |
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Charts - 11/1/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81101.BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/11-1/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/11-1/BEARISH.htm |
DIA - Steep CP uptrend break... |
DIA's 5-dma rising, but will turn down at 318.38 |
SPY - Steep CP uptrend break |
SPY's 5-dma rising, but will turn down at 382.02 |
QQQ's Closing Power uptrend broken today |
QQQ's 5-day ma is falling and bearish |
GOOG and AMZN made new lows today. |
Table 1 Breadth Statistics --------------------------------------- DJIA 32653.20 -79.75 -0.24 S&P 500 3856.10 -15.88 -0.41 Nasdaq 10890.85 -97.30 -0.89 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,343 3,358 3,379 Advances 1,890 1,501 2,731 Declines 1,315 1,708 518 Unchanged 138 149 130 New highs 98 94 70 New lows 89 109 113 Adv. volume* 593,123,536 501,151,443 858,781,951 Decl. volume* 313,527,195 689,267,287 127,503,636 Total volume* 928,097,637 1,200,689,966 992,182,593 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.71 0.96 0.87 Block trades* 5,019 5,094 4,785 Adv. volume 2,924,664,388 2,275,808,570 4,126,803,264 Decl. volume 1,449,831,644 2,490,943,349 680,460,366 Total volume 4,481,211,838 4,820,628,439 4,843,126,576 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,972 4,928 4,907 Advances 2,641 2,094 3,634 Declines 2,041 2,552 993 Unchanged 290 282 280 New highs 140 138 104 New lows 162 167 188 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.28 1.25 0.49 Block trades 25,912 24,379 32,919 Adv. volume 2,311,332,463 1,863,392,721 4,507,479,530 Decl. volume 2,289,547,597 2,848,360,129 598,914,594 Total volume 4,677,524,140 4,753,742,405 5,141,769,759 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/1/2022 Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 TECL, SOXL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 326.41 -1.01 318.38 122.7% Bullish RED .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10890.85 -97.3 10970.99 -140% Bullish RED -.019 -.107 -.126 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 384.52 -1.69 382.02 -5.2% Bullish RED -.02 -.057 -.077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 275.11 -2.84 277.93 -163.2% Bullish RED -.009 -.112 -.121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 445.59 1.82 436.13 120.3% Bullish RED .082 -.019 .063 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 183.58 .25 179.05 149.8% Bullish RED .11 -.024 .086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 74.57 .84 68.49 467% Bullish RED -.051 -.042 -.093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.26 .1 7.82 262.2% Bullish RED .119 -.223 -.104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 9.1 .18 9.01 -88.5% ------- RED -.04 -.453 -.493 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 25.05 -.67 24.52 -244.1% Bullish RED .007 -.351 -.344 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 129.75 1.16 126.6 201.8% Bullish ---- .036 .046 .082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 153.46 1.55 154.98 -17.6% ------- RED -.112 -.037 -.149 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 17.01 .4 16.96 187.5% ------- RED .109 -.005 .104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 298.12 -.58 293.66 258.3% Bullish RED .192 .275 .467 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 20.95 .6 21.4 100.7% ------- RED -.195 -.036 -.231 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 71.75 .47 70.83 266.6% ------- RED .005 -.126 -.121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 30.02 -.01 29.5 35.3% Bearish BLUE -.118 .042 -.076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.73 .32 27.29 77% Bullish BLUE .087 .104 .191 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 9.14 .16 8.64 334.5% Bearish BLUE .039 .142 .181 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 22.46 2.44 25.81 -148.4% Bearish RED -.081 -.626 -.707 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/1/22 Bullish = 25 Bearish = 21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COAL .833 .666 .666 .666 .333 .5 GUNS .769 .615 .615 .615 .384 .384 MILITARY .73 .692 .653 .615 .538 .538 OILGAS .726 .716 .698 .698 .688 .65 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 DJI-13 .692 .769 .846 .615 .615 .692 INSURANC .68 .72 .72 .56 .48 .52 EDU .666 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 BEVERAGE .642 .714 .785 .571 .5 .5 REGBANKS .64 .64 .64 .6 .6 .6 RETAIL .617 .617 .638 .51 .51 .531 MARIJUAN .6 .7 .4 .3 .4 .4 TRANSP .578 .473 .473 .315 .315 .315 INFRA .575 .515 .515 .515 .484 .393 INDMATER .569 .5 .5 .472 .486 .472 DOWJONES .566 .6 .666 .533 .5 .5 ---- SP-100 .566 .566 .622 .477 .477 .466 FIDSTKS .556 .544 .585 .449 .449 .443 FOOD .551 .367 .306 .469 .489 .326 CHEM .543 .521 .521 .478 .391 .434 JETS .538 .461 .538 .461 .461 .461 AUTO .528 .49 .471 .433 .358 .32 GAMING .526 .473 .473 .421 .368 .368 FINANCE .525 .525 .512 .45 .425 .425 SP500 .517 .494 .521 .414 .408 .4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COPPER .5 .25 .25 .75 .75 .375 HACKERS .5 .562 .562 .5 .375 .437 HOSPITAL .5 .5 .5 .428 .428 .285 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDEXES .497 .475 .486 .389 .4 .362 COMODITY .487 .307 .282 .487 .487 .23 COMPUTER .45 .3 .4 .25 .25 .25 SOFTWARE .428 .446 .446 .41 .303 .392 HIGHPRIC .394 .386 .417 .289 .289 .285 GOLD .391 .282 .326 .434 .5 .326 HOMEBLDG .388 .333 .5 .111 .166 .222 REIT .353 .323 .315 .207 .2 .2 NASD-100 .35 .35 .4 .26 .29 .29 BIOTECH .349 .325 .344 .297 .316 .289 RUS-1000 .349 .334 .339 .281 .265 .26 ELECTRON .33 .308 .315 .293 .278 .293 NIFTY .295 .295 .34 .295 .295 .34 ETFS .29 .254 .309 .254 .236 .2 GREEN .263 .368 .368 .263 .263 .263 LOWPRICE .26 .238 .24 .243 .229 .218 SEMI .231 .2 .21 .189 .178 .2 CHINA .2 .16 .18 .2 .2 .18 UTILITY .184 .157 .21 .157 .157 .157 SOLAR .125 .125 .125 .125 .125 .062 BONDFUND .011 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 |
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Tuesday - 5:50 AM Futures: DJI +234 NASDAQ +155
Data Used: 10/28/2012
10/31/2022 DJIA 32732.95 -128.85 -0.39% S&P 500 3871.98 -29.08 -0.75% Nasdaq C 10988.15 -114.31 -1.03% |
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Biden is said by some to be behind this
suspicious DJI-30 rally. He is aiming to convince voters that he can keep the economy strong and save folks' retirement accounts. Others claim Wall Street is rallying because it sees a Republican victory in a week. Can both views be right? Maybe, October rallies into election time occur frequently. Once the election is over and the partisans celebration has played out, a pullback then becomes likely. That may be what's in store for us. The DJI-30's ability to rally at this time is remarkable. AROC is now above 150% a year. Clearly this can't continue. But we are now in what is a very bullish 9-month period of time in the 4-year Presidential cycle. Both the Opening and Closing Powers are rising for DIA. The DJI is paying little heed to the expected resistamce at such levels as its 30-week ma and 200-day ma. Now it has recovered 50% of 2022's losses. That too, often is a point of reversal. Similarly, the DJI is now at its downtrending resistance-line in its megaphome pattern. Still, it refuses to go down. Look at the futures. Up +234 this morning. Technically, the bullish dominoes keep falling for the DJI-30. Look at the flat-topped breakouts below and Visa, too. Breakouts like these are capable of rising much more. These are apt to be the leaders in whatever bull market leg might lie ahead. So being short DIA and QQQ without being hedged now with some of the Bullish MAXCPs or DJI-30 breakouts is not safe even with the DJI up 8% above its 21-dma. The P-I and IP21 are now positive, after all. Powell has been usually quiet this last month. Perhaps, he will disappoint the bulls when next he speaks. But more likely, word has gotten out to Professionals that the FED will announce a pause Wednesday in its rate-increases. And most likely, the DJI will only peak out after the election a week from now. In the meantime, stay long some Bullish MAXCPs and allow for another week's rise in the DJI. |
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Charts - 10/31/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81031.BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/10-31/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/10-31/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 Breadth Statistics --------------------------------------- 10/31/2022 DJIA 32732.95 -128.85 -0.39% S&P500 3871.98 -29.08 -0.75% Nasdaq 10988.15 -114.31 -1.03% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,358 3,320 3,343 Advances 1,501 2,420 1,835 Declines 1,708 759 1,347 Unchanged 149 141 161 New highs 94 89 66 New lows 109 113 333 Adv. volume* 501,151,443 650,403,522 570,538,869 Decl. volume* 689,267,287 233,909,055 394,528,715 Total volume* 1,200,689,966 904,944,685 977,694,869 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.96 1.37 1.20 Block trades* 5,094 4,586 4,993 Adv. volume 2,275,808,570 3,041,219,308 2,495,916,391 Decl. volume 2,490,943,349 1,307,854,882 2,193,644,087 Total volume 4,820,628,439 4,459,411,631 4,747,933,582 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,928 4,888 4,862 Advances 2,094 3,150 2,323 Declines 2,552 1,488 2,249 Unchanged 282 250 290 New highs 138 121 68 New lows 167 196 443 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.25 1.05 0.93 Block trades 24,379 25,915 31,809 Adv. volume 1,863,392,721 3,145,441,196 2,505,018,876 Decl. volume 2,848,360,129 1,555,142,065 2,244,852,842 Total volume 4,753,742,405 4,731,943,156 4,808,717,452 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 10/30/2022 Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 TECL, SOXL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 327.42 -1.16 318.49 193.2% Bullish BLUE .101 === ==== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10988.15 -114.3 11199.12 16.1% Bullish RED .052 -.107 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 386.21 -2.81 384.92 95.8% Bullish RED .033 -.057 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 277.95 -3.27 284.21 -9% Bullish RED .047 -.111 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 443.77 -.28 435.03 222.9% Bullish BLUE .127 -.028 .099 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 183.33 .17 178.17 276.9% Bullish BLUE .16 -.03 .13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 73.73 -1.5 67.93 584.4% Bullish RED -.012 -.099 -.111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.16 -.13 7.84 725.8% Bullish RED .171 -.287 -.116 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 8.92 -.58 9.26 133.4% Bullish RED -.006 -.506 -.512 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 25.72 -1.02 26.29 170.5% Bullish RED .057 -.373 -.316 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 128.59 -1.09 124.63 255.2% Bullish BLUE .067 .036 .103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 151.91 -1.25 154 -56.5% ------- RED -.023 -.038 -.061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.61 -.33 16.38 80.6% Bullish ---- .107 -.005 .102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 298.7 8.73 283.06 291.8% Bullish BLUE .303 .285 .588 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 20.35 -.39 20.53 -86% Bullish BLUE -.191 -.051 -.242 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 71.28 .4 67.99 463.7% ------- BLUE .053 -.131 -.078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 30.03 .25 29.81 -18.5% Bearish ---- -.159 .067 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.41 .32 27.31 36.7% ------- RED .061 .121 .182 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.98 .43 8.56 221.1% Bearish ---- -.018 .165 .147 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 20.02 -1.72 23.14 -422.6% ------- BLUE .036 -.643 -.607 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/31/22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DJI-13 .769 .846 .615 .615 .692 .615 INSURANC .72 .72 .56 .48 .52 .52 OILGAS .716 .698 .698 .688 .65 .66 BEVERAGE .714 .785 .571 .5 .5 .214 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 ==== MARIJUAN .7 .4 .3 .4 .4 .2 MILITARY .692 .653 .615 .538 .538 .5 COAL .666 .666 .666 .333 .5 .333 REGBANKS .64 .64 .6 .6 .6 .6 RETAIL .617 .638 .51 .51 .531 .425 GUNS .615 .615 .615 .384 .384 .307 DOWJONES .6 .666 .533 .5 .5 .433 ==== SP-100 .566 .622 .477 .477 .466 .444 HACKERS .562 .562 .5 .375 .437 .375 FIDSTKS .544 .585 .449 .449 .443 .384 FINANCE .525 .512 .45 .412 .425 .387 CHEM .521 .521 .5 .369 .456 .347 INFRA .515 .515 .515 .484 .393 .333 =============================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .166 HOSPITAL .5 .5 .428 .428 .285 .214 INDMATER .5 .5 .472 .486 .472 .402 SP500 .494 .521 .414 .406 .402 .323 ===== AUTO .49 .471 .433 .358 .32 .245 INDEXES .475 .486 .389 .4 .367 .286 GAMING .473 .473 .368 .421 .368 .315 TRANSP .473 .473 .315 .315 .315 .315 JETS .461 .538 .461 .461 .461 .307 SOFTWARE .446 .464 .41 .303 .375 .232 HIGHPRIC .386 .417 .289 .289 .285 .21 GREEN .368 .368 .263 .263 .263 .157 FOOD .367 .306 .448 .489 .346 .346 NASD-100 .35 .4 .26 .29 .29 .21 ==== RUS-1000 .334 .341 .283 .268 .26 .225 HOMEBLDG .333 .5 .111 .166 .222 .055 BIOTECH .325 .341 .3 .316 .283 .242 REIT .323 .307 .215 .207 .192 .146 ELECTRON .308 .315 .293 .278 .278 .233 COMODITY .307 .282 .461 .487 .256 .282 COMPUTER .3 .4 .25 .25 .25 .15 NIFTY .295 .34 .295 .295 .34 .272 GOLD .282 .326 .434 .5 .347 .217 ETFS .254 .309 .254 .236 .218 .109 COPPER .25 .25 .75 .75 .375 .375 LOWPRICE .24 .24 .246 .229 .221 .185 SEMI .2 .21 .189 .178 .178 .157 CHINA .16 .18 .2 .2 .18 .18 UTILITY .157 .21 .157 .157 .157 .131 SOLAR .125 .125 .125 .125 .062 .062 BONDFUND .011 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 |
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Monday - 5:30 AM Futures: DJI -164 NASDAQ -81 Data
Used: 10/28/2012
10/28/2022 DJIA 32861.80 828.52 2.59 S&P 500 3901.06 93.76 2.46 Nasdaq 11102.45 309.78 2.87 |
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Friday's 828 point rally was remarkable for a
number of reasons. It reversed an a pre-market decline of more than 100 points in the DJI and the NASDAQ. This means that NYSE professionals were again very aggressive buyers all day long. Weak openings and strong closings are usually bullish. This is what causes blue candle-sticks and a strongly rising Closing Power. We may see it again today. But now the DJI is 8% over its 21-day ma. It is over-bought, to say the least. The combined S9-S12 Sells now show a paper loss of 8%. This is not completely unprecedented. There have been 40 such combined Sells since 1929. Though they average a gain of 10.1% when finally reversed, paper losses of more than 4% occurred in 6 of these cases. The biggest paper loss was 8% in early 1932. After its rally ended, the DJI fell to its final bear market low, and a 50% profit might have come to a patient short-seller. So, a strong rally in a bear market can be very false and set up a much bigger decline because shorts have been rung out of the market.. True, the current rally might be a take-off to a new bull market. But if that were the case I would expect to see bulges from our P-Indicator and our IP21. In fact, the IP21 is just barely positive. As we see below, a very low IP21 with the DJI at its upper 8% band is almost always ultimately bearish. There can be a little more rally. But when that is over, the odds favor a decline below the lower band. The bulls will point out that the third year in a Presidential Election years produces gains almost 3x the typical gains of the other years in the four- year cycle. But, rising interest rates and inflation will not go away just because the Republicans win a majority in Congress. Until the market goes still higher with more positive internals, we should be very careful that last Friday's was another case of a Friday "tape-painting" rally led by the DJI-30. Clearly, professionals are expecting (1) a big Republican win nationally on Tuesday or (2) Fed Chairman Powell announcing a delay in further rate increases after this week's or (3) a Friday Jobs' Report that is strong enough to make us all believers in a "soft landing" or (4) new peace talks over the Ukraine. The bulls are now expecting a lot of favorable news. That leaves plenty of room for disappointment. The DJI has now rallied to its 8% band. A 6% decline is more likely than a 2% rally. So stay short DIA and QQQ, but only if you are hedged with some of the bullish MAXCPs making flat top breakouts, as shown below or among the Bullish MAXCPs. Avoid breakouts, however, that show negative Accumulation.
|
What Happens When DJI reaches the 8% upper band
with a weak P-I or IP21 reading?
There have been
16 previous such cases since 1929. Only in one case did the DJI
go sidewise for
five weeks and then rally strongly. In 15 of the cases the DJI fell profitably
to the lower band
within two months. In 9 of these 15 cases the DJI fell below its 3.5% band.
In 8 cases, the
DJI's decline was delayed and additional highs were first made. In 7 cases, the
DJI quickly fell
to the lower band.
No. Date LA/MA AROC P-I IP21 Result ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 1/2/29 1.088 .575 10 .097 307 -->319 --->301.5 (LB) low Delay ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 12/26/29 1.103 .121 10 .041 Quick decline <LB HIGH low low ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note 2/24/31 1.103 1.762 107 .100 194 to 120! HIGH Positive Internals do not guarantee against a decline ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 6/22/31 1.097 .566 -36 -.009 Delay - Rallied from 146 to 156 a week later. Then plunged to 87. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 1/3/32 1.091 .744 7 .044 Quickly Fell below LB. low low ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 2/16/32 1.092 -.015 -58 -.058 Delay. 86 -> to 89 then 42! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 3/8/32 1.086 1.626 2 -.071 Quickly Fell way below LB. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 9/6/32 1.09 2.493 130 0 Delayed decline 77 -> to 65, < LB ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 7/17/33 1.082 2.353 83 -.064 Quickly DJI fell below LB. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 8/25/33 1.084 1.123 20 .223 Quickly DJI fell below LB. low ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 9/8/39 1.084 .881 -71 .082 Quickly DJI fell back to LB. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 8/31/82 1.083 1.138 237 0 DJI rose, then went sidewise. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 3/23/00 1.085 1.048 -46 .033 DJI rose a little then fell back < LB. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 10/21/02 1.09 .842 -141 .064 2 mo. delayed decline to LB. 8538->8932->8304 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 4/8/20 1.094 -.878 -72 -.018 Delayed decline to LB 24292 ->24634 -> 23248 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 4/17/20 1.10 2.369 393 .017 Delayed decline to LB 23434 ->24634 -> 23248 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 6/25/20 1.092 1.664 642 .038 DJI fell to lower band. overbought low 27111 -> 25746
DJI is very over-bought and IP21 is only barely positive. |
Both Opening and Closing Power are rising - Bullish short-term.
|
NASDAQ is
under-perforning DJI by 11.1% over last 50 trading days. |
QQQ is
under-perforning DJI by 11.3% over last 50 trading days. |
Table 1 Breadth Statistics --------------------------------------- 10/28/2022 Last Chg %Chg DJIA 32861.80 828.52 2.59 S&P 500 3901.06 93.76 2.46 Nasdaq 11102.45 309.78 2.87 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,320 3,339 3,335 Advances 2,420 1,746 2,259 Declines 759 1,423 941 Unchanged 141 170 135 New highs 89 76 40 New lows 113 128 548 Adv. volume* 650,403,522 563,883,379 973,117,964 Decl. volume* 233,909,055 444,120,825 184,066,746 Total volume* 904,944,685 1,017,590,985 1,210,971,907 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.37 1.10 0.60 Block trades* 4,586 4,886 5,511 Adv. volume 3,041,219,308 2,442,616,440 3,960,592,232 Decl. volume 1,307,854,882 2,199,063,957 988,325,049 Total volume 4,459,411,631 4,687,323,135 5,078,028,073 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,888 4,905 4,909 Advances 3,150 2,210 3,095 Declines 1,488 2,432 1,532 Unchanged 250 263 282 New highs 121 109 69 New lows 196 182 454 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.05 2.04 0.55 Block trades 25,915 26,909 27,059 Adv. volume 3,145,441,196 1,454,528,732 3,684,261,240 Decl. volume 1,555,142,065 3,270,155,335 1,000,967,087 Total volume 4,731,943,156 4,773,524,946 4,706,445,624 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 10/27/2022 Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 3 TECL, SOXL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 328.58 8.12 315.05 279.5% Bullish BLUE .06 ----- ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11102.45 309.77 10952.61 110.8% Bullish BLUE .006 -.108 -.102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 389.02 9.04 378.87 193.8% Bullish BLUE -.024 -.056 -.08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 281.22 8.35 278.45 104.4% Bullish BLUE -.011 -.111 -.122 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 444.05 7.94 424.37 260.7% Bullish BLUE .057 -.037 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 183.16 4.07 173.44 296.3% Bullish BLUE .082 -.044 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 75.23 5.13 65.61 909.2% Bullish BLUE -.028 -.128 -.156 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 8.29 .35 7.03 995.2% Bullish BLUE .168 -.336 -.168 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 9.5 .98 8.68 522.1% Bullish BLUE -.015 -.51 -.525 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 26.74 3.03 24.86 575.9% Bullish BLUE .018 -.377 -.359 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 129.68 4.8 122.18 354.5% Bullish BLUE .02 .041 .061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 153.16 -1.58 153.65 -32.1% Bullish BLUE -.024 -.03 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.94 -.19 16.34 162.2% Bullish ---- .086 .019 .105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 289.97 -2.52 281.88 222.1% Bullish RED .263 .238 .501 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 20.74 -.49 20.71 -57.2% Bullish RED -.209 -.023 -.232 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 70.88 -.71 64.86 316.7% ------- RED .029 -.156 -.127 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.78 .05 30.14 -55.3% Bearish ---- -.189 .071 -.118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.09 -.09 27.21 -33% ------- ---- .032 .123 .155 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.55 -.07 8.6 -75.4% Bearish ---- -.141 .147 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 21.74 -2.11 21.99 -1897.3% ------- BLUE .058 -.614 -.556 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/28/22 Bullish = 19 Bearish = 26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DJI-13 .846 .615 .615 .692 .615 .615 BEVERAGE .785 .571 .5 .5 .214 .214 INSURANC .72 .56 .48 .52 .52 .52 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 OILGAS .698 .698 .688 .65 .66 .679 COAL .666 .666 .333 .5 .5 .5 DOWJONES .666 .533 .5 .5 .433 .4 ===== MILITARY .653 .615 .538 .538 .5 .346 REGBANKS .64 .6 .6 .6 .6 .56 RETAIL .638 .51 .51 .531 .425 .276 SP-100 .622 .477 .477 .466 .444 .411 GUNS .615 .615 .384 .384 .307 .153 FIDSTKS .585 .449 .449 .443 .384 .349 HACKERS .562 .5 .375 .437 .375 .375 JETS .538 .461 .461 .461 .307 .461 CHEM .521 .5 .391 .434 .369 .304 SP500 .521 .414 .406 .4 .327 .276 ===== INFRA .515 .515 .484 .393 .333 .303 FINANCE .512 .45 .412 .412 .387 .35 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 0 0 HOMEBLDG .5 .111 .166 .222 .055 .055 HOSPITAL .5 .428 .428 .285 .214 .142 INDMATER .5 .472 .486 .472 .416 .444 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDEXES .486 .389 .4 .367 .281 .237 GAMING .473 .368 .368 .421 .315 .315 TRANSP .473 .315 .315 .315 .315 .263 AUTO .471 .433 .358 .32 .245 .188 SOFTWARE .464 .428 .303 .375 .232 .214 HIGHPRIC .417 .289 .289 .285 .21 .183 COMPUTER .4 .25 .25 .25 .15 .15 MARIJUAN .4 .3 .4 .4 .2 .1 NASD-100 .4 .26 .29 .29 .21 .17 ===== GREEN .368 .263 .263 .263 .157 .21 BIOTECH .341 .297 .319 .283 .242 .231 RUS-1000 .341 .286 .27 .263 .222 .205 NIFTY .34 .295 .295 .34 .272 .25 GOLD .326 .434 .5 .347 .239 .304 ELECTRON .315 .293 .278 .278 .225 .21 ETFS .309 .254 .236 .218 .127 .127 REIT .307 .207 .215 .2 .138 .13 FOOD .306 .448 .469 .346 .346 .346 COMODITY .282 .461 .461 .256 .282 .282 COPPER .25 .75 .75 .375 .375 .5 LOWPRICE .243 .246 .232 .221 .188 .216 SEMI .21 .189 .178 .178 .147 .147 UTILITY .21 .157 .157 .157 .157 .131 CHINA .18 .2 .2 .18 .18 .22 SOLAR .125 .125 .125 .062 .062 .062 BONDFUND .011 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 |
===============================================================================
3:15 AM Futures: DJI -67 NASDAQ -139
Data Used: 10/27/2012
Another Friday Doctor's routine Appointment causes me to do this Hotline
three hours before the opening. I have not read the morning headlines.
Because this is Friday, with its thinner trading, we could be in store for another
wild day like last Friday. Be careful.
10/27 DJIA 32033.28 +194.17 +0.61% Nasdaq 10792.67 -178.32 -1.63% S&P 500 3807.30 -23.30 -0.61% |
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The Peerless S9-S12 still stands. We remain hedged and short DIA and QQQ. The weak closing of DIA today caused us not to cover DIA desite its recent strength. But I would not add to the short in DIA. It still rose today despite the intra-day selling. Still present is the DJI's recent tendency to rise in NYSE trading after being down before the opening. And another | factor is at work. More and more pollsters are predicting the Republicans may regain control of the House and the Senate. Partisans have a long history of bringing late October rallies into November with a sell-off then often following. But why would expectations of a Republican vistory not cause the NASDAQ and QQQ to rise, too? The "blue chips" are more "old guard". A merry mystery - that. Clearly, the DJI is way ahead of the other major market indexes. It has been doing what it often does best, namely disguise the weakness in much of the rest of the market. The broad-based NASDAQ and QQQ-100 could now re-test their recent lows, assuming they break their price uptrends as shown below. They have under-performed the DJI by more than 10% over the last 10 weeks, one percent a week. Bearishly, the NYSE A/D is far from confirming the DJI's recent run-up. The three most important Peerless Indicators (P-I, V-I and IP21) are all negative with the DJI having just closed 6% over its 21-dma. Today, the bond market turned down again, making it hard to foresee the FED's reversing its "hawkinshness:" when the FOMC meets next week and in December. An inverted V-Top may be at hand. Looking at the DJI's or DIA's candle-stick we see recently a series of blue (positive Closing Power) days. This often means a weak opening and a strong close. Such a series is bullish while it lasts, but when we see the opposite, a strong opening and a weak close with a red candlestick, like today, it often means a significant top, especially if price resistance has been reached and there are other bearish signs. Note in that connection that the DJI today has reached keen resistance in the form of its falling 200-day ma and the top of its 3 std deviations' channel. MCD and UNH in the DJI-30 may soon be making breakouts above their flat, well-tested resistance. Such breakouts could cause another short-term spurt up by the DIA. The Blue Chips Like Biden's Weakness at This Time. The FED is not under much visible White House pressure to"pause and look around" before raising rates by 3/4% in November. Recall how Trump made very clear his displeasure at Powell for raising rates in the Fall of 2018. Trump was successful in that. Biden now is under potitcal attack for letting inflation get out of hand with his Covid Relief checks and aid to local; governments in that connection. Will the help this provided be remembered now? Will the grateful vote? Maybe, he is working behind the scenes to pressure the FED not to raise rates too steeply now. I think he has a much beter hand than he is playing. The new inflation was been set in motion by the Russian attack on the Ukraine and higher oil prices, which the FED cannot directly address and also by the FED's flooding the market-place with trillions for almost two years. But Biden seems not to understand, Certainly, he does not want to take on the FED publicly. This weakness, perceived or real, rubs off on all Democrats and is helping Republicans regain the advantage after losing some because of the womens' rights and abortion decision by the Republican Supreme Court. This may not be the winning issue that Democrats want. Typcially, a lot more people vote their pocket-books than on "social issues". The November Election could give both the Senate and the House back to the Republicans. It is said Wall Street likes political stalemate. But is that what is needed now? Polls also show that the public is afraid of climate change, the Western and mid-western drought, the floods and hurricanes and the torrid summer heat. Stalemate is not the answer. Where is the leadership in this vital issue? Again Biden looks weak and that rubs off on all Democrats. As climate change gets worse, political leadership will have to come from somewhere. If there are crop failures and food price go up sharply next year, the stock market may not be able to be stablized or advance as it usually does in the third year of the Presidential cycle. Wall Street and the corporations that guide the economy and often set the economic and political agenda could be over-whelmed next year, without even considering the massive debt and core inflation issues. The intermediate-term trends are usually our friends. But right now, the indexes are as divided as is the country. Hedging with our Bullish and Bearish MAXCPs and MINCPs seems timely. Stay short DIA and QQQ and some of the bearish MINCPs but note, too, that Oil stocks are clearly the leaders among the bullish MAXCPs. |
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Charts - 10/27/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81027.BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/10-27/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/10-27/BEARISH.htm |
NASDAQ - ITRS = .105 NASDAQ has under-performed DJI by 10.5% for last 50-trading days. Bearishly both Openinig and Closing Power are falling. Price uptrend break would set up 10600 as downside target. |
QQQ - ITRS = -.113 QQQ has under-performed DJI by 11.3% for last 50-trading days. Price uptrend break would set up 268 as downside target. |
SPY - ITRS = -.053 SPY has under-performed DJI by 5.3% for last 50-trading days. SPY's red candle-stick suggests it needs to test price-uptrend line at 375. |
3x leveraged TECL ITRS = -.415 A break in price uptrend will likely bring a retest of support at 21.5. |
TIGER INDEX OF BOND FUNDS - Resuming downtrend. |
Table 1 Breadth Statistics --------------------------------------- 10/27 DJIA 32033.28 194.17 +0.61% Nasdaq 10792.67 -178.32 -1.63% S&P 500 3807.30 -23.30 -0.61% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,339 3,375 3,315 Advances 1,746 1,925 979 Declines 1,423 1,305 2,194 Unchanged 170 145 142 New highs 76 82 37 New lows 128 97 412 Adv. volume* 563,883,379 617,128,762 380,786,016 Decl. volume* 444,120,825 362,558,540 539,717,132 Total volume* 1,017,590,985 995,680,793 935,183,477 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.10 0.94 0.49 Block trades* 4,886 5,208 5,176 Adv. volume 2,442,616,440 2,900,911,078 2,107,363,105 Decl. volume 2,199,063,957 1,843,247,415 2,320,947,961 Total volume 4,687,323,135 4,817,312,876 4,496,627,751 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,905 4,975 4,839 Advances 2,210 2,747 1,952 Declines 2,432 1,952 2,604 Unchanged 263 276 283 New highs 112 132 72 New lows 183 144 372 Closing Arms (TRIN) 2.04 1.26 0.75 Block trades 26,909 32,314 31,651 Adv. volume 1,454,528,732 2,725,401,950 2,296,195,981 Decl. volume 3,270,155,335 2,432,373,732 2,289,422,079 Total volume 4,773,524,946 5,224,447,329 4,628,014,716 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 10/27/2022 Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 4 RETL, TECL, SOXL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 320.46 2.08 310.88 273.8% Bullish RED .004 0 ====== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10792.68 -178.31 10859.72 81.4% ------- RED -.048 -.108 -.156 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 379.98 -2.04 374.29 193.2% Bullish RED -.073 -.051 -.124 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 272.87 -5.06 275.42 67.9% Bullish RED -.063 -.111 -.174 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 436.11 -.02 421.6 270.4% Bullish RED .018 -.023 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 179.09 .04 172.7 288.3% Bullish RED .043 -.036 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 70.1 1.61 63.04 941.1% Bullish RED -.038 -.16 -.198 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 7.94 .12 6.8 1145.6% Bullish RED .072 -.353 -.281 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 8.52 -.49 8.58 474.2% ------- RED -.05 -.506 -.556 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 23.71 -.81 23.9 330.8% Bullish RED -.034 -.413 -.447 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 124.88 -1.72 120.9 298.3% ------- RED -.046 .016 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 154.74 -.24 154.15 107.1% Bullish ---- -.002 0 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 17.13 .17 16.4 245.8% Bullish ---- .063 .083 .146 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 292.49 -1.17 277.28 508.8% Bullish RED .293 .328 .621 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 21.23 -.17 20.98 177.7% Bullish RED -.186 .038 -.148 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 71.59 .76 66.55 463.3% ------- BLUE -.002 -.116 -.118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.73 .23 30.11 -106.7% Bearish ---- -.217 .1 -.117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.18 -.11 27.27 -29.3% ------- RED .021 .154 .175 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.62 -.02 8.68 -52.1% Bearish RED -.162 .136 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 23.85 -1.96 31.31 -1300.6% ------- RED -.013 -.571 -.584 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/27/22 Bullish = 13 Bearish = 33 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COPPER .75 .75 .375 .375 .5 .125 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .571 OILGAS .698 .688 .65 .66 .679 .65 COAL .666 .333 .5 .5 .5 .333 DJI-13 .615 .615 .692 .615 .615 .23 GUNS .615 .384 .384 .307 .153 .153 MILITARY .615 .538 .538 .5 .346 .23 REGBANKS .6 .6 .6 .6 .56 .32 BEVERAGE .571 .5 .5 .214 .214 .071 INSURANC .56 .48 .52 .52 .52 .24 DOWJONES .533 .5 .5 .433 .4 .233 INFRA .515 .484 .393 .333 .303 .181 RETAIL .51 .51 .531 .425 .276 .234 ============================================================================================== CHEM .5 .391 .456 .347 .326 .195 EDU .5 .5 .5 0 0 0 HACKERS .5 .375 .437 .375 .375 .187 ============================================================================================= SP-100 .477 .477 .466 .444 .411 .255 INDMATER .472 .486 .472 .416 .444 .277 COMODITY .461 .461 .23 .282 .307 .256 JETS .461 .461 .461 .307 .461 .384 FINANCE .45 .412 .412 .375 .35 .237 FIDSTKS .449 .449 .443 .384 .349 .224 FOOD .448 .469 .326 .346 .367 .326 GOLD .434 .5 .347 .239 .304 .13 AUTO .433 .358 .32 .245 .188 .132 HOSPITAL .428 .428 .285 .214 .142 .142 SOFTWARE .428 .321 .375 .232 .214 .142 SP500 .414 .406 .4 .325 .278 .181 ===== INDEXES .389 .4 .367 .281 .237 .2 GAMING .368 .368 .368 .368 .315 .105 TRANSP .315 .315 .315 .315 .263 .21 MARIJUAN .3 .4 .4 .2 .1 0 BIOTECH .297 .316 .286 .242 .231 .198 NIFTY .295 .295 .34 .272 .25 .136 ELECTRON .293 .278 .278 .225 .203 .157 HIGHPRIC .289 .289 .285 .21 .183 .132 RUS-1000 .286 .273 .265 .225 .202 .164 GREEN .263 .263 .263 .157 .21 .105 NASD-100 .26 .29 .29 .21 .17 .12 ===== ETFS .254 .236 .218 .127 .145 .09 COMPUTER .25 .25 .25 .15 .15 .1 LOWPRICE .249 .232 .224 .188 .216 .18 REIT .207 .207 .207 .146 .123 .107 CHINA .2 .2 .18 .18 .22 .22 SEMI .189 .178 .178 .147 .136 .115 UTILITY .157 .157 .157 .157 .131 .052 SOLAR .125 .125 .062 .062 .062 0 HOMEBLDG .111 .166 .222 .055 .055 .055 BONDFUND .011 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 |
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Thursday 6:00AM Futures: DJI +299 NASDAQ
-31 Data Used: 10/26/2012
10/26 DJIA 31839.11 2.37 +0.01 S&P 500 3830.60 -28.51 -0.74 Nasdaq 10970.99 -228.12 -2.04 NYSE Advances 1,925 versus 2,731 NYSE Declines 1,305 versus 518 |
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The inverted
"V" formation the DJI is forming, largely all by itself, is too strong to be short. Weak opening and strong Closings like it keeps showing is a bullish trait. We also know that the FED's turning "dovish" can send the DJI up above the upper band like it is doing now. (mid-1929, December 1966, August 1982, December 2018 and April 2020, for examples). Cover DIA short if it does not show weakness at the close today. S9-S12 versus DJI's Unusually high relative strength compared to other major market indexes. The DJI refuses to sell off. It may be down over night but early in the day it has been turning up and making what seems like a solid advance. This we see in its rising Closing Power and its blue candle-sticks. It has barely given a nod to the expected resistance at its 30-wk ma. With both a rising Opening and Closing Power, we should cover the short sale in DIA which was initiated just two days ago. Looking at the DIA chart below, we can look at the last good DIA rally and note how it topped out only when its uptrends of price and Closing Power were violated. With Professionals clearly are in control of the DJI-30 and DIA at this time, let's wait now and see if we get a reversing Peerless buy or its uptrend-lines are violated without a new buy, in which case we should plan then to again sell short. The NASDAQ, QQQ and SPY are much weaker than the DJI. They are still considerably below their 65-dma and show negative ITRS values, i.e. their percent change over the last 50 trading days minus the DJI's. At its present rate, the DJI could rise 9.6% over the next 50 trading days and the QQQ would be unchanged. So, stay short QQQ. What's behind the rally? Rumors have it that the FED may moderate its aggressive rate rises. That would explain the Dollar's weakness but Bonds are still in a falling trend and 10-year rates are still rising above 4%. So, something else is happening beind the scene. Is Putin on the way out? Not likely. Oil stocks would not be this strong if peace talks regarding the Ukraine and Russia were going to start. More likely, blue chips in the DJI are being bought as they rally because of a combination of short- covering and blue-chop buying by bond-holders who must be in the market but no longer view bonds as safe. Republicans have high hopes of making gains at the November mid-term elections. A Republican victory in the House races would be bullish. But we need more evidence of that. The rally in the DJI may continue until the next Jobs Report comes out. The bulls may be expecting more signs that the economy is not contracting and profits are secure for most of the blue chips who tend to be able to raise prices more easily than most companies. I see nothing to prevent the best performing oil/gas stocks from continuing to rally. I hope their high relative strength has not gone unnoticed by traders here. The bullish MAXCPs that show an IP21 above +.23 and make new highs would be my favorites, especially where they burst past flat resistance, such as AMGN in the DJI has done. |
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Charts - 10/26/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81026.BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/10-26/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/10-26/BEARISH.htm |
NASDAQ ITRS (Rel.Strength) = -.095 .... Very weak compared to DJI |
QQQ ITRS (Rel.Strength) = -.096 .... Very weak
compared to DJI |
SOXL
ITRS (Rel.Strength) = -.498 .... Very weak compared to DJI |
RATES |
BONDS |
DOLLAR - Professional Selling Pressure |
Table 1 Breadth Statistics --------------------------------------- 10/26 DJIA 31839.11 2.37 +0.01 S&P 500 3830.60 -28.51 -0.74 Nasdaq 10970.99 -228.12 -2.04 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,375 3,379 3,363 Advances 1,925 2,731 776 Declines 1,305 518 2,455 Unchanged 145 130 132 New highs 82 70 33 New lows 97 113 310 Adv. volume* 617,128,762 858,781,951 228,872,674 Decl. volume* 362,558,540 127,503,636 670,162,738 Total volume* 995,680,793 992,182,593 906,071,910 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.94 0.87 0.95 Block trades* 5,208 4,785 4,901 Adv. volume 2,900,911,078 4,126,803,264 1,039,928,285 Decl. volume 1,843,247,415 680,460,366 3,132,320,631 Total volume 4,817,312,876 4,843,126,576 4,223,803,280 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,975 4,907 4,884 Advances 2,747 3,634 1,260 Declines 1,952 993 3,358 Unchanged 276 280 266 New highs 132 104 53 New lows 144 188 323 Closing Arms (TRIN) 1.26 0.49 0.56 Block trades 32,314 32,919 39,303 Adv. volume 2,725,401,950 4,507,479,530 1,969,729,738 Decl. volume 2,432,373,732 598,914,594 2,962,664,593 Total volume 5,224,447,329 5,141,769,759 4,955,099,158 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 10/26/2022 Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 4 RETL, TECL, SOXL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 318.38 -.11 303.31 226% Bullish BLUE .068 ==== ==== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10970.99 -228.13 10614.84 133.7% Bullish BLUE .029 -.094 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 382.02 -2.9 365.41 180.6% Bullish BLUE -.009 -.043 -.052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 277.93 -6.28 269.11 135% Bullish RED .009 -.095 -.086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 436.13 1.1 413.07 196.8% Bullish RED .077 -.025 .052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 179.05 .88 169.03 226.7% Bullish RED .115 -.041 .074 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 68.49 .56 57.94 591% Bullish BLUE .013 -.179 -.166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 7.82 -.02 6.3 927.3% ------- RED .136 -.4 -.264 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 9.01 -.25 7.7 861.5% Bullish BLUE .01 -.505 -.495 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 24.52 -1.77 22.1 507.3% Bullish BLUE .029 -.396 -.367 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 126.6 1.97 117.58 334.1% ------- BLUE .028 .02 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 154.98 .98 151.45 107.5% Bullish BLUE .05 .005 .055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.96 .58 16.32 214.2% Bullish BLUE .102 .095 .197 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 293.66 10.6 264 584.7% Bullish BLUE .409 .347 .756 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 21.4 .87 20.49 343.2% Bullish BLUE -.159 .047 -.112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 70.83 2.84 65.37 357.4% ------- BLUE .053 -.124 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.5 -.31 30.37 -140.9% Bearish RED -.313 .104 -.209 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.29 -.02 27.34 34.9% Bullish RED .048 .172 .22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.64 .08 8.71 34.8% Bearish BLUE -.103 .128 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 25.81 2.67 30.77 -833.9% Bullish BLUE .065 -.532 -.467 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/26/22 Bullish = 7 Bearish = 38 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COPPER .75 .375 .375 .5 .125 .25 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .571 .571 OILGAS .688 .65 .66 .679 .65 .66 DJI-13 .615 .692 .615 .615 .23 .23 REGBANKS .6 .6 .6 .56 .32 .52 MILITARY .538 .538 .5 .346 .23 .307 RETAIL .51 .531 .425 .276 .234 .234 ================================================================================================= BEVERAGE .5 .5 .214 .214 .071 .142 DOWJONES .5 .5 .433 .4 .233 .233 EDU .5 .5 0 0 0 0 GOLD .5 .347 .239 .304 .13 .108 ================================================================================================= INDMATER .486 .472 .416 .444 .277 .291 INFRA .484 .393 .333 .303 .181 .212 INSURANC .48 .52 .52 .52 .24 .52 SP-100 .477 .466 .444 .411 .255 .3 FOOD .469 .326 .326 .367 .326 .306 COMODITY .461 .23 .256 .307 .256 .23 JETS .461 .461 .307 .461 .384 .23 FIDSTKS .449 .443 .384 .349 .224 .278 HOSPITAL .428 .285 .214 .142 .142 .214 FINANCE .412 .412 .375 .337 .237 .312 SP500 .406 .4 .325 .276 .183 .218 INDEXES .4 .367 .281 .237 .2 .2 MARIJUAN .4 .4 .2 .1 0 .1 CHEM .391 .456 .369 .304 .217 .26 GUNS .384 .384 .307 .153 .153 .153 HACKERS .375 .437 .375 .375 .187 .187 GAMING .368 .368 .315 .368 .105 0 AUTO .358 .32 .245 .188 .132 .188 COAL .333 .5 .5 .5 .333 .5 SOFTWARE .321 .392 .232 .214 .142 .142 BIOTECH .316 .283 .245 .231 .198 .206 TRANSP .315 .315 .315 .263 .21 .21 NIFTY .295 .34 .272 .25 .136 .159 NASD-100 .29 .29 .21 .17 .12 .12 HIGHPRIC .289 .285 .21 .183 .136 .132 ELECTRON .278 .278 .225 .203 .157 .157 RUS-1000 .273 .268 .227 .205 .162 .174 GREEN .263 .263 .157 .21 .105 .157 COMPUTER .25 .25 .15 .15 .1 .05 ETFS .236 .218 .127 .145 .109 .072 LOWPRICE .235 .224 .191 .216 .18 .188 REIT .207 .2 .153 .13 .1 .123 CHINA .2 .18 .18 .22 .22 .18 SEMI .178 .178 .147 .136 .115 .105 HOMEBLDG .166 .222 .055 .055 .055 .055 UTILITY .157 .157 .157 .131 .052 .078 SOLAR .125 .062 .062 .062 0 .062 BONDFUND .011 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 |
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Wednesday 6:11 AM Futures: DJI
-77 NASDAQ -200 Data Used:
10/25/2012
10/25 DJIA 31836.74 +337.12 +1.07% Nasdaq 11199.12 +246.50 +2.25% S&P 500 3859.11 +61.77 +1.63% |
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The operative
Peerless signals are S9/S12. The DJI has now risen to its 6% upper band with barely positive internal strength readings and with the DJI fighting with its falling 65-dma. The research shown below lets us see that the DJI can go slightly above the 5% band without immediately selling off but that the odds are 12:5 based on the cases of this since 1929 that the DJI will then fall to its lower band or lower. More recently, the odds are not so favorable. So we have to be careful. I have suggested being long some of Bullish MAXCPs to be hedged. With the DJI being much the strongest of the major indexes and both its Opening and Closing Powers rising, it occurs to me that the strength here reflects buying coming into the blue chip average from bond holders who are disgusted with their 30% loss, year to date, but want to be in the market because of inflation. This and new hopes that the FED will still navigate a soft landing are at work here. The next Jobs Report may show this hope is still viable. But the the Inflation Report that follows may bring the bulls back down to reality. Stay short QQQ. Its ITRS shows it is much weaker than the DJI. Bonds rose a little today, but short-term rates rose, too and have almost reached 4%. We remain short DIA but will probably close out this position if it does not soon fall back below its 65-dma. |
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Past Cases where DJI closes 5.2% over 21-dma with negative P-I and IP21 (Accum.Index) Date DJI Subsequent High Resulting DJI ------------------------------------------------------------- 8/23/1929 374 382 Crash 12/25/1929 252 260 lower band 6/22/1931 145 155 below lower band 10/31/1931 109 110 lower band 1/8/1932 82 85 lower band. 2/16/1932 86 88 Crash 3/20/1933 59 --- lower 3% band 4/13/1933 -- --- up sharply 7/12/1933 102 109 below lower band 1/10/1938 134 134 below lower band 2/23/1938 132 132 below lower band 4/13/1938 117 119 below lower band 6/20/1938 big rally 8/20/1982 big rally 10/15/2002 rally 11/4/2008 down sharply 3/17/2009 big rally 4/8/2020 month sidewise. ---------------------------------------------------------------- 12 successes 5 failures |
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Charts - 10/25/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81025.BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/10-25/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/10-25/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 Breadth Statistics --------------------------------------- 10/25 DJIA 31836.74 337.12 1.07 Nasdaq Composite 11199.12 246.50 2.25 S&P 500 3859.11 61.77 1.63 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,379 3,343 3,363 Advances 2,731 1,835 2,299 Declines 518 1,347 912 Unchanged 130 161 152 New highs 70 66 40 New lows 113 333 115 Adv. volume* 858,781,951 570,538,869 810,758,359 Decl. volume* 127,503,636 394,528,715 175,637,055 Total volume* 992,182,593 977,694,869 1,006,580,746 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.87 1.20 0.51 Block trades* 4,785 4,993 5,133 Adv. volume 4,126,803,264 2,495,916,391 3,633,546,645 Decl. volume 680,460,366 2,193,644,087 730,418,833 Total volume 4,843,126,576 4,747,933,582 4,483,746,971 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,907 4,862 4,929 Advances 3,634 2,323 2,999 Declines 993 2,249 1,600 Unchanged 280 290 330 New highs 104 68 76 New lows 188 443 157 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.49 0.93 0.69 Block trades 32,919 31,809 36,218 Adv. volume 4,507,479,530 2,505,018,876 3,656,059,879 Decl. volume 598,914,594 2,244,852,842 1,341,075,163 Total volume 5,141,769,759 4,808,717,452 5,047,368,637 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 10/25/2022 Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 4 RETL, TECL, SOXL, YINN (lowest) ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 318.49 3.44 304.35 211.5% Bullish BLUE .088 ==== ==== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 11199.12 246.51 10680.51 198% Bullish BLUE .052 -.085 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 384.92 6.05 368.5 185.5% Bullish BLUE .003 -.041 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 284.21 5.76 270.49 233.2% Bullish BLUE .026 -.085 -.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 435.03 10.66 419.49 96.7% Bullish BLUE .077 -.028 .049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 178.17 4.73 171.21 116.2% Bullish BLUE .129 -.052 .077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 67.93 2.32 61.03 309.6% Bullish BLUE .024 -.177 -.153 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 7.84 .81 6.54 495% ------- BLUE .166 -.342 -.176 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 9.26 .58 7.57 1164.5% Bullish BLUE .016 -.513 -.497 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 26.29 1.43 22.1 869.9% Bullish BLUE .046 -.369 -.323 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 124.63 2.45 118.53 79.7% ------- BLUE -.009 -.014 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 154 .35 151.69 8.2% Bullish BLUE .016 -.009 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.38 .04 16.26 144.7% Bullish ---- .067 .031 .098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 283.06 1.18 261.67 617.8% Bullish BLUE .389 .276 .665 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 20.53 -.18 19.99 75.7% Bullish BLUE -.203 0 -.203 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 67.99 3.13 66.1 -35.5% ------- BLUE .055 -.174 -.119 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 29.81 -.33 30.35 -52.9% Bearish RED -.239 .107 -.132 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.31 .1 27.1 22% Bullish BLUE -.028 .139 .111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.56 -.04 8.58 -63.6% Bearish ---- -.16 .09 -.07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 23.14 1.15 30.4 -1960.6% ------- RED -.07 -.593 -.663 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/25/22 Bullish = 7 Bearish = 40 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .571 .571 .571 DJI-13 .692 .615 .615 .23 .23 .23 OILGAS .65 .66 .679 .65 .66 .547 REGBANKS .6 .6 .56 .32 .52 .6 MILITARY .538 .5 .346 .23 .269 .269 RETAIL .531 .425 .276 .234 .234 .34 INSURANC .52 .52 .52 .24 .52 .52 =============================================================================================== BEVERAGE .5 .214 .214 .071 .142 .214 COAL .5 .5 .5 .333 .5 .666 DOWJONES .5 .433 .4 .233 .233 .233 ==== EDU .5 0 0 0 0 .166 ============================================================================================== INDMATER .472 .416 .444 .277 .291 .277 SP-100 .466 .444 .411 .255 .3 .311 JETS .461 .307 .461 .384 .23 .384 CHEM .456 .369 .326 .195 .282 .282 FIDSTKS .443 .384 .349 .224 .278 .301 HACKERS .437 .375 .375 .187 .187 .25 FINANCE .412 .375 .337 .225 .312 .375 MARIJUAN .4 .2 .1 0 .1 .2 SP500 .4 .325 .276 .181 .22 .25 ===== INFRA .393 .333 .303 .181 .212 .272 SOFTWARE .392 .25 .214 .142 .142 .196 GUNS .384 .307 .153 .153 .153 .153 COPPER .375 .375 .5 .125 .25 .25 GAMING .368 .315 .315 .157 0 .105 INDEXES .362 .281 .237 .2 .2 .232 GOLD .347 .239 .304 .13 .108 .173 NIFTY .34 .272 .25 .136 .159 .181 FOOD .326 .326 .346 .326 .306 .306 AUTO .32 .245 .188 .132 .169 .169 TRANSP .315 .315 .263 .21 .21 .263 NASD-100 .29 .21 .17 .12 .12 .15 ===== HIGHPRIC .285 .21 .183 .136 .132 .164 HOSPITAL .285 .214 .142 .142 .214 .214 BIOTECH .283 .242 .234 .198 .206 .267 ELECTRON .278 .225 .203 .157 .142 .187 RUS-1000 .268 .23 .207 .164 .172 .207 GREEN .263 .157 .21 .105 .157 .157 COMPUTER .25 .15 .15 .1 .05 .05 COMODITY .23 .256 .282 .256 .23 .256 LOWPRICE .227 .191 .218 .18 .188 .202 HOMEBLDG .222 .055 .055 .055 .055 .055 ETFS .218 .127 .145 .109 .09 .09 REIT .2 .146 .138 .107 .115 .123 CHINA .18 .18 .22 .22 .18 .22 SEMI .178 .147 .136 .115 .094 .115 UTILITY .157 .157 .131 .052 .078 .131 SOLAR .062 .062 .062 0 .062 .062 BONDFUND .011 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 |
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Tuesday 6:00 AM Futures: DJI -146
NASDAQ -10 Data Used: 10/24/2012
10/24 DJIA 31499.62 417.06 +1.34 S&P 500 3797.34 44.59 +1.19 Nasdaq 10952.61 92.90 +0.86 NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Advances 1,835 2,259 Declines 1,347 941 |
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The S9/S12 did not stop the DJI from
rallying some more. But the DJI did seem to stop abruptly at the resistance of its falling 65-dma. This is ofen a bearish reversal point when the internals are as negative as they are now. The DJI has reached its 5.5% band with the P-I, IP21 (AI), V-I and OBVPct all negative. There have been a few past cases where the DJI keeps rising in these condtions and starts a new bull market. But I do not see how that is possible with Bonds in a state of collapse. They fall basically when expectations of higher interest rates prevail. So, what we have seen is most likely a rally driven by shorts in Index funds, especially DIA and SPY. The DJI has just done too much of the heavy lifting. We see this in many ways. The key NYSE A/D Line has moved up only a little recently. Monday saw only a plurality of 488 despite the big DJI rise, which was driven mostly by defensive drug stock new highs, oil stocks and UNH in the DJI. The number of new lows is still way too big to allow a new bull market and the number of new highs again points to the lack of leadership. Let's go short DIA now and continue to hold short QQQ and many of the bearish MINCPs. |
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Charts - 10/24/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJ-15 DJ-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81024.BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/10-24/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/10-24/BEARISH.htm |
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HOTLINE - 10-24 |
10/21 - Data Used Here DJIA 31082.56 +748.97 +2.47% S&P 500 3752.75 +86.97 +2.37% Nasdaq 10859.72 +244.87 +2.31% |
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Monday - October 24th 5:15 AM - DJI Futures +224 NASDAQ + 30 Sell S9/S12 but stay hedged... On Friday morning the Wall Street Journal published a report that the "doves" in the FOMC are becoming restive and want the increases in rates to slow down after November so that the FED can stop and better measure how much it has accomplished in curbing inflation without possibly causing a recession or a crash needlessly. This report, "leak" or "trial baloon", call it what you like, caused the three key indexes to run up almost 2.5%. Because I finished the Hotline at 3:00 AM on Friday morning to allow me to get some sleep before a doctor's appointment that morning, I did not see the article. If I had seen it, the Hotline would have predicted another test of its recent highs at 31000, but it would not have changed the Sell S9/S12 or the recommendation to short QQQ, which shows the lowest ITRS among the major market indexes. This short was meant to part of a package of long Bullish MAXCPs and bearish MINCPs. The stock market, as opposed to the bond market, certainly liked the idea that the FED might relent and not raise rates to the point where the economy falls into a recession and key indexes start another leg downwards. The number of new highs jumped and we saw good advances in the strongest MAXCPs. These included some low-priced stocks as well as oil stocks. This action seems to be spilling over to today. It looks like the DJI-30 led by GS, UNH, CAT, MSFT and JPM and possibly HD wants to close a gap down and reach its 30-week ma. It is not clear that QQQ will be able to make as big a move, so just hold it along with the hedged mix of Bullish MAXCPs and MINCPs. How is possible for Bonds to fall and stocks to rise so much on "dovish" hopes? One explanation is that hot-day traders quickly buy the highest priced DJI-30 stocks to "paint the tape", as it were, and make the market seem stronger than it really is. A less cynical view is that traders are simply ganging up on the strongest and most upwardly volatile stocks, just as they always tend to do. A third explanation is that foreigners were busy selling bonds because they saw the Dollar weakening due to the prospects of lower interest rates. Japan is said to be on the cusp of raising rates. Such action might make hot money leave the U.S. amd go Japan. And sure enough, the Dollar (UUP) weakened on Friday. Rising interest rates draw in foreign "hot" money. Lower rates cause some foreigners to withdraw funds from dollar denominated assets. The Bullish MAXCPs have started to bring some nice gains, especially in low priced stocks. Look for stocks in this group that have a wall of high Accumulation as they breakout past flat-topped resistance. The high Accumulation shows that insiders are buying with the expectation that a stock's prices will be susbstantially higher next year. Typically, stocks showing high levels of Accumulation, above +.35 are tightly held and should not drop much or for very long even if the general market weakens. |
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Charts - 10/21/2022 2022 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 CCI RSI Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma Inverted Traders Index DJI-IPA DJI-OBV BOND FUNDS NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA QQQ SPY IWM new -< COIN (Bit Coin ETF) TNA Short-Term Rates Ten Year Rates PST (Short Treasuries) DOLLAR-UUP ALLSTOCKs recent 2006 vers-Peerless signals http://tigersoftware.com/NEWPEER/UPD81021.BMP MDY - http://www.tigersoftware.com/CHARTZ/MDY.GIF USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD HD IBB JETS JNUG KOL NAIL NUGT NRGU OIH PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TAN TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA USO China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, NRGU SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) Stocks AA AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CHKP CNX CRM CVX CMG DE DIS ENPH FB FSLR FTNT GILD GME GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM KR LRCX MRK MRNA MOS MSFT NEM NFLX NKE NOC NUE NVDA PANW PG PYPL REGN REV SO QCOM QDEL TSLA TXN XOM V VRTX WFC WMT XLE ZM ZOM Leveraged Short ETFs: FAZ - financials, TZA and SRTY- small caps, MZZ - mid caps, TECS -Techs, SOXS - semi-conductors LABD - Biotechs Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/UPPING/10-21/BULLISH.htm Bearish MINCPs http://www.tigersoftware.com/Downing/10-21/BEARISH.htm |
Tiger Index of Bond Funds keeps falling. Was this predominately overseas selling? |
Current DJIA and Peerless Signals |
Strongest DJI-30 on Friday.... GS + 14.29 UNH + 12.84 CAT + 9.68 JPM + 6.10 MSFT + 5.97 ----------------- Sum = 48 .88 / 4716 (sum of DJI closes on Friday) These 5 stocks accounted for a gain of 327.61 points or 42% if total DJI gain. |
Table 1 Breadth Statistics --------------------------------------- 10/21 DJIA 31082.56 748.97 +2.47% S&P 500 3752.75 86.97 +2.37% Nasdaq 10859.72 244.87 +2.31% NYSE Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 3,335 3,315 3,318 Advances 2,259 979 605 Declines 941 2,194 2,597 Unchanged 135 142 116 New highs 40 37 29 New lows 548 412 218 Adv. volume* 973,117,964 380,786,016 116,218,458 Decl. volume* 184,066,746 539,717,132 828,635,381 Total volume* 1,210,971,907 935,183,477 949,159,726 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.60 0.49 1.50 Block trades* 5,511 5,176 5,142 Adv. volume 3,960,592,232 2,107,363,105 567,025,350 Decl. volume 988,325,049 2,320,947,961 3,650,458,573 Total volume 5,078,028,073 4,496,627,751 4,243,030,090 NASDAQ Latest Close Previous Close Week Ago Issues traded 4,909 4,839 4,794 Advances 3,095 1,952 1,173 Declines 1,532 2,604 3,344 Unchanged 282 283 277 New highs 69 72 60 New lows 454 372 332 Closing Arms (TRIN) 0.55 0.75 1.68 Block trades 27,059 31,651 21,968 Adv. volume 3,684,261,240 2,296,195,981 753,239,039 Decl. volume 1,000,967,087 2,289,422,079 3,603,871,295 Total volume 4,706,445,624 4,628,014,716 4,393,006,780 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 10/21/2022 Bullish = 1 OIH Bearish = 6 RETL, TECL, SOXL (lowest), YINN ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS POWER INDEX --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 310.88 7.57 302.06 232.5% Bullish BLUE -.011 ----- ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 10859.72 244.88 10675.8 253.6% Bearish BLUE -.063 -.082 -.145 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 374.29 8.88 366.82 227.7% ------- BLUE -.065 -.04 -.105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 275.42 6.31 269.35 273.6% ------- BLUE -.068 -.082 -.15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 421.6 8.53 420.78 144.9% ------- BLUE -.006 -.035 -.041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 172.7 3.67 172.13 172.6% ------- BLUE .036 -.052 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 63.04 5.1 60.99 516.9% Bullish BLUE -.022 -.19 -.212 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 6.8 .5 6.84 346.5% ------- BLUE .073 -.386 -.313 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 8.58 .88 7.33 1117% Bearish BLUE -.034 -.498 -.532 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 23.9 1.8 21.73 913% ------- BLUE -.053 -.372 -.425 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 120.9 3.32 122.49 54.9% ------- BLUE -.086 -.011 -.097 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 154.15 2.7 153.42 38.3% Bullish BLUE -.057 -.005 -.062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBO 16.4 .08 16.28 27.8% ------- BLUE .026 -.002 .024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 277.28 13.28 246.38 738.6% Bullish BLUE .24 .226 .466 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPER 20.98 .49 20.47 108.2% Bullish BLUE -.216 .01 -.206 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAN 66.55 1.18 66.61 41.3% Bearish BLUE -.061 -.175 -.236 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 30.11 -.26 30.15 -57.8% Bearish RED -.118 .138 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 27.27 -.07 27.31 -60.4% ------- BLUE -.127 .145 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 8.68 -.03 8.77 -40.2% Bearish BLUE -.21 .098 -.112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 31.31 .54 35.6 -219% Bearish BLUE -.111 -.463 -.574 |
TABLE 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/21/22 Bullish = 6 Bearish = 42 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS .714 .571 .571 .571 .571 .142 OILGAS .679 .65 .66 .556 .528 .433 DJI-13 .615 .23 .23 .23 .153 .153 REGBANKS .56 .32 .52 .6 .56 .52 INSURANC .52 .24 .52 .52 .44 .24 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COAL .5 .333 .5 .666 .666 .5 COPPER .5 .125 .25 .25 .375 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JETS .461 .384 .23 .384 .153 .076 INDMATER .444 .277 .291 .277 .222 .18 SP-100 .411 .255 .3 .311 .255 .188 DOWJONES .4 .233 .233 .233 .166 .133 ----- HACKERS .375 .187 .187 .25 .125 .125 FIDSTKS .349 .224 .278 .301 .248 .171 FOOD .346 .306 .285 .306 .326 .326 MILITARY .346 .23 .269 .269 .153 .038 FINANCE .337 .225 .3 .362 .35 .262 CHEM .326 .217 .282 .282 .239 .152 GAMING .315 .105 0 .105 0 0 GOLD .304 .13 .108 .173 .13 .086 INFRA .303 .181 .212 .303 .212 .151 COMODITY .282 .23 .205 .256 .256 .282 RETAIL .276 .234 .234 .297 .212 .17 SP500 .276 .181 .218 .25 .195 .131 ----- TRANSP .263 .21 .21 .263 .157 0 NIFTY .25 .136 .159 .181 .113 .068 INDEXES .237 .2 .2 .232 .21 .189 SOFTWARE .232 .16 .142 .196 .125 .089 BIOTECH .231 .198 .209 .267 .247 .192 LOWPRICE .221 .182 .191 .199 .188 .163 CHINA .22 .22 .18 .22 .2 .18 BEVERAGE .214 .071 .142 .214 .142 0 GREEN .21 .105 .157 .157 .157 .105 RUS-1000 .21 .169 .177 .202 .169 .136 ELECTRON .203 .157 .142 .18 .15 .127 AUTO .188 .132 .169 .169 .169 .132 HIGHPRIC .183 .136 .132 .16 .128 .093 NASD-100 .17 .12 .12 .15 .13 .07 ------ GUNS .153 .153 .153 .153 .153 .153 COMPUTER .15 .1 .05 .05 .1 .05 ETFS .145 .109 .09 .109 .109 .036 HOSPITAL .142 .142 .214 .214 .214 .071 SEMI .136 .115 .094 .105 .094 .063 UTILITY .131 .052 .078 .131 .105 .105 REIT .13 .107 .13 .123 .1 .092 MARIJUAN .1 0 .1 .2 .2 0 SOLAR .062 0 .062 .062 .062 .062 HOMEBLDG .055 .055 .055 .055 .055 .055 BONDFUND .011 .011 .011 .011 .011 0 EDU 0 0 0 .166 0 0 |