Sell S19s
There have only been 7 Sell S19s since 1928. Only one
called a significant top.
This was the one in 1971. The S19s occur when the P-Indicator turns negative
after being positive for 105+ straight days. The DJI must not be more than 1/2%
below the 21-day ma. The furthest up off the 21-day ma it has been on a Sell S19
is 1.59% above it. That case also saw the biggest gain. So, the limit to how high
the DJI may be over the 21-dma should probably remain open.
A high IP21 up to +.076 does not pose a problem for S17s nor does
an only slightly negative V-Indicator. Both of these brought the biggest gains.
Other key values ranges can be summarized as shown below. In general,
the higher the other key values are when the Sell S19 occurs, the bigger
the decline.
High
Low
AnnRoc
.313
(+9.3% gain) -.005 (+3.6%
gain)
IP21
.076
(+9.3% gain) -.017 (+1.5%
gain)
V-I
-1
(+9.3% gain)
-149 (+3.6%
gain)
ObvPct
.286
(+9.3% gain) -.135 (+3.6%
gain)
65-day Pct Change .193
(+3.9% gain) +.055 (-0.2% loss)
One could eliminate the single loss by requiring the 65-day
Pct Change to
be above +.06. Setting it above + .063 would only mean losing the
margin gain of .015 in 2007. More evidence is needed to make this
change.
No. Date Signal
DJI Gain
Paper-Loss
la/ma annroc
PI PI-ch Adj.PI
IP21
VI OBVPct 65d PctCh.
=================================================================================
1
19430607 S19
141.8 .039
.028
1.0159 .248
-10.8 -18.8 -54.5
.012
-113 .045 .087
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2
19450515 S19
164.0 -.002
.031
.998 .116
-1.6 -28.9
-7.1 .013
-87 .161
.055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 19710506 S19
937.39 .093
.014
.9989 .313 -14.9
-34 -31.5
.076
-1 .286 .072
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 19860429 S19
1825.89 .039
none
1.0099 .048 -1
-30.7 -1.9
.049
-9 .117 .193
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 20040220 S19
10619.03 .036 .005
1.002 -.005 -9
-85 -8
-.017
-149 -.135 .087
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 20070105 S19
12398.01 .015 .031
.9997 .11 -7.6
-162.1 -6.8 -.017
-119 .119 .062
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 20130604 S19
15177.54 .027 .009
.9969 .159 -65.4
-103.8 -65.4 .076
-50 .023 .077
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Avg.Gain
= 3.4%