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          A Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE

             Peerless Signals: 1915-2013   
           New   Peerless Signals and DJI Charts  - version 7/4/2013
           1965  1965-6       1966       1966-7       1967       1967-8       1968       1968-9       1969 1969-70       1970       1970-1 1971
               1971-2       1972       1972-3       1973       1973-4       1974       1974-5       1975       1975-6       1976       1976-7       1977 1977-1978
              1978  1978-79       1979       1979-80       1980       1980-1       1981       1981-2       1982       1982-1983       1983       1983-1984
              1984  1984-1985 1985 1985-1986       1986       1986-1987       1987       1987-8       1988 1988-9        1989       1989-90
              1990  1990-1       1991       1991-2       1992       1992-3       1993       1993-4       1994       1994-5       1995       1995-1996       1996
              1996-7 1997  1997-8       1998       1998-1999       1999       1999-2000       2000       2000-1       2001       2001-2       2002
              2002-3       2003       2003-4       2004       2004-5       2005       2005-6       2006       2006-7       2007       2007-8       2008       2008-9      
              2009  2009-10       2010       2010-11       2011       2011-12       2012       2012-2013

       Background and New Studies 
               Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
               Peerless Charts and Signals
               Documentation for TigerSoft Automatic and Optimized Signals.

               How reliable is a rising 200-day ma?  2/9/2014
                  The New 2014 Peerless.exe Software has now been posted on the Elite Stock Professional Page. 
==================================================================================

              3/20/2014    If news of a more hawkish Fed cannot bring about a
              correction, the market's bullishness must be respected.  In addition,
              today's DJI rally makes it appear that the "expanded Buy B9" will
              probably not be reversed by the head/shoulders pattern in the DJI.  

              Hold IWM and a mix of Bullish MAXCP stocks along with some of
              the weakest Bearish MINCP stocks.  Coal stocks fell sharply today
              among the bearish MINCP stocks.  This illustrates the advtange of
              hedging particularly by shorting any group that is heavily represented
              among the bearish MINCP stocks. Bullishly, a number of semi-conductor
              stocks like ADEP,  ADI and AMAT are now Bullish MAXCP stocks.


                -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  152 +49    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/20/2014)   Bullish plurality 
          -->   70 -9    MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/20/2014)
            -->  92 +9  New Highs on NASDAQ 10   new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->  60 -18   New Highs on NYSE  14 +9   new lows.  Bullish plurality  

              Head/Shoulders?    The DJI rallied 109 up to the apex of the right shoulder in the
              potential head/shoulders pattern mentioned last night.   The Hourly DJI chart
              shows this most precisely.  Now an hourly reading much above 16360 would
              destroy the symmetry of the pattern and thereby render more impotent its
              bearishness.    Additional strength in the DJI will force shorts in the general
              market ETFs to cover.  The DJI would next be expected to challenge 16600.
              and the flat resistance there.  Surprisingly, breadth was negative today. That
              and the low up-day and up-hour volume will work against a DJI breakout past
              16000.   We will also want to watch to see if the other general market indexes'
              key ETFs can bullishly destroy their own head/shoulders pattern.

              SPY's Closing Power has broken its downtrendline.  it closed at 187.75.
              It seems bound to make a nominal new low above 190.  QQQ's Closing
              Power has not yet been pentrated.  QQQ, now 90.29, will need to rise past
              91.00 to abort its Head/Shoulders.   IWM shows the most underlying
              Accumulation.   Its Closing Power is bullishly angling up.  But its rise today
               was   very small.  It needs to surpass 10.5 to make a new high.



              While a DJI breakout above the flat overhead resistance seems unlikely
              based on the up-day volume being lower than down-day volume this year,
              a valid breakout to 16800 would then be headed for its minimum upside
              objective of 17800.


==================================================================================
                                                        OLDER HOTLINE
==================================================================================
              3/19/2014    The DJI seems locked in a narrow trading range: 16000-16600.
              Small caps are favored now.  A bearish head/shoulders in the DJI must be watched
              for. 



              Stay Hedged.  The bearish scenario of a Head/Shoulder Pattern
              got new life today from a very cautious Janet Yellen today. (At one point, it almost seemed
              that she   had the same scared look in her eyes that Hank Paulson showed in
              October 2008.)   She was no Wall Street cheer-leader today.  Professionals
              lnew in advance.  That was why the Closing Powers of DIA, SPY and QQQ
              could not break their recent downtrend.

              No upside breakout likely.   Yellen badly disappointed the Bulls today.  Now we have
              to worry about sudden head shoulders patterns suddenly appearing.   This is the
              way Wall Street quickly re-adjusts to unexpected bearish news.  There are many
              examples of this. This is an important part of Peerless.  DJI head and shoulders
              can and do bring big market declines.  We must heed a break in the DJI neckline
              as a judged Sell S10 if one occurs.  A strong A/D Line helps deter such a bearish
              development, but it cannot, by itself, prevent such a breakdown, especially
              if there is a sudden and unexpected change of economic policy.  This is what
              causes the head/shoulders.  

              Usually, such H/S Sell S10s involve invasions (North Korea-1950, Iraq-1990),
              impending attacks (Pearl Harbor-1941 and 9/11/2001) and impending assasinations
              (JFK-1963) heart attack (Eisenhower-1955).  Berlin Blockade of 1948 is another
              example.

              Bearish head/shoulders can also occur because of important economic developments
              and policy changes in DC (notably, Nixon's 1971 cessation of selling Gold
              on demand for Dollars), Truman's reluctance to quickly stop the many labor strikes
              of 1946 and British Petroleum's massive oil spill's threat to the Southern Gulf's
              economy and ecology.  Another example: in early 1994, the Fed suddenly boosted
              short-term rates.  A quick head/shoulders appeared and the DJI dropped 10%.

              Yellen might today have taken the opportunity of speaking today to allay investor fears
              that about a stock market bubble.  Instead, she suggested interest rates might go
              up sooner than was expected.   When pressed, she said the FED would probably
              end QE-III (Fed bond buying) completely in 6 months and start raising interest rates
              6 months later.  This was not at the end of 2015, as Bernanke had previouly laid out
              as the Fed plan, or 2016 as has widely been assumed by Wall Street economists
              going into the meeting. 

              The Public is still in a mood to speculate.  High Accumulation, smaller stocks may
              be the last to top out.   IWM's Closing Power is in an uptrend.  Bearishly,
              the CP of DIA, SPY and QQQ are falling.  DIA is the weakest.  Note its negative
              Accumulation Index, too.


             


               Our Stocks' Hotline is hedged, long about the same number of Bullish MAXCPs
               as it is short Bearish MINCPs. 

              IMPORTANT.  We see that the market becoming much riskier.   This is what one
              must expect after 5 years of a bull market without more than an 18% correction.
              In this context, consider hedging like our Stocks' Hotline is doing.  In addition,
              know when Tiger advises selling individual stocks.   See some examples here.
                       1) Closing Power non-confirmations followed by CP trend breaks.
                       2) Peerless Sells followed by CP trendbreaks.
                       3) Very big advances followed by high volume reversal days (big red popsicles)
                       4) Very big advances followed by CP trendbreaks.
                       5) Very big advances followed by OBV NCs, IP21 NNCs and CP trendbreaks.
                       6) Very big advances followed by head/shoulders patterns.
                       7) Very big advances followed by breaks of their 65-dma with IP21<0.

               -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  103 -51     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/19/2014)   Bullish plurality 
          -->   79 +52    MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/19/2014)
            -->  83 +8  New Highs on NASDAQ 10   new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->  78 +27   New Highs on NYSE   5 -3   new lows.  Bullish plurality  
  

==================================================================================
                                                         OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
             3/18/2014        Super Woman To The Rescue!?

             The NYSE A/D Line made a new high ahead of the DJI and all the other key indexes.
             This is too bullish to argue with.  IWM is the strongest of the major market ETFs.  

Unless Yellen disappoints investors in her news conference              tomorrow the excellent breadth (NYSE advances - declines) should allow the              DJI to challenge the nearly flat 13600 resistance.  The Accumulation Index              being negative is a warning that the overhead supply has not been eaten up.              The relatively low volume makes a breakout less likely.  But, a breakout above              16600 by the DJI could set up a new target of 17600 if volume and the IP21              start improving.

             
             The downtrending Closing Power of IWM has been bullishly broken above
             The downtrends of the Closing Power for SPY, QQQ and  DIA's have not yet
             been broken.   QQQ will need another good day to destroy its  potential head/shoulders pattern. 
             When that takes place, short-covering should become very apparent.  A good
             NASDAQ rally to new highs would likely take place. 

             We know that Closing Powers start to lag at the end of a bull market.
             So, with the DJI back above its 65-dma and the A/D Line making
             another new high ahead of price, it's hard to argue against the broader market's
             uptrend.   The "expanded Buy B9" has not been reversed by a Peerless Sell.   
             The number of MAXCPs is now greater than the number of MINCPs.  Traders
             must expect Yellen to assure investors again that she does not see signs of
             excessive speculation.  

                -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  154 +70     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/18/2014)   Bullish plurality 
          -->   47 -43    MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/18/2014)
            -->  83 +8  New Highs on NASDAQ 10   new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->  78 +27   New Highs on NYSE   5 -3   new lows.  Bullish plurality  

             With an A/I 200 score of 174 and a decisive break in its CP downtrend,
             IWM looks like the best ETF to buy even now, provided one is willing
             to sell when it breaks its new Closing Power uptrend.   I would not buy the
             high Power-Ranked leveraged ETFs, URTY and TNA now.  Both are working
             against red and blue automatic Sells that have worked well this past year.



             UTX (United Techn.) is the highest AI/200 stock now in the DJI-30.  Our
             water desalinization stocks also seem good plays now. Our favorite silver
             stock, SSRI has now doubled since it surpassed its 65-dma in December.
             Take some profits in it.  Use cross-overs of the 65-dma to buy beaten-down
             stocks you believe in is the lesson here.

             MSFT broke out today.  Investors believe its abandoning of its XP market,
             which is what runs 30% of the entire world computers, will bring lots of new
             customers over to buy Windows8.  We'll see.  Right now one can buy a fast
             refurbished DELL XP laptop on EBAY for less than $150 that runs Tiger
             and Peerless perfectly.   MSFT's move may increase the number of such
             computers for sale for a while.  Take advantage of this dumping of good
             Dells.   Having a backup computer to run Tiger seems a good plan. In 2006,
             they cost $1500 new.          

             A DJI breakout past 16600 on rising volume could give us a bullish inverted
            head and shoulders pattern with an upside target of  17600.

==================================================================================
              3/17/2014     I warned traders here two weeks ago that news of Yellen's
              making a speech should be used to BUY.  Such is  her "dovish" reputation
              on Wall Street. 

              Sure enough, word this morning that the Fed's leading monetary dove
              would speak Wednesday or Thursday this week came to the rescue of
              the stock market again.  Short-term, bews of her coming press conference
              proved much more important for the US stock market than complicated fears
              that the Ukraine might soon be pulled apart violently by long-suppressed ethnic,
              religious and political dislikes, not unlike those that broke Yugoslavia apart. 

                                           The Technical Picture

              The good news is that rally brought the DJI up above its rising 65-dma.
              Along with the break in the A/D Line downtrend and its presumed uptrend's
              resumption, its hard not to see the bulls still seem in control.  The
              "expanded Buy B9" has not been replaced with any Sell.  The OEX's
              Closing Power downtrend was even violated today, though the other
              ETFs' CP downtrends were not.  

              Some significant technical problems remain.  Volume was much lower
              on the rally today than it was on the decline last week. The NASDAQ's
              Relative Strength Indicator has turned negative.  The DJI's Accumulation Index
              remains negative and is in a downtrend.  The DJI did not retreat close enough
              to the lower band to give a new Peerless Buy signal. And perhaps, most important,
              the QQQ could be forming a bearish head and shoulders' pattern.  Watch
              it closely.   

              The most bullish thing the markets can do now is keep on rallying.   The
              closes should be higher than the openings.  This will destroy the QQQ's
              potential head/shoulders pattern. 




              But when this rally is over,  I think the bulls will be lucky to see the DJI rally back
              at the early January highs.  More backing and filling a little above where we are
              seems the most likely scenario for the next few days, as traders wait to see
              what Janet Yellen actually reveals about Fed intentions.

              Will the official Unemployment fall to 6.5%?  Will official inflation reach +2.2%? 
              The Fed has said such levels would cause it to start raising interest rates. 
              Is this still the Fed's view?  What else might Yellen have to say about big banks
              and Wall Street?  Does she still see no bubble?  My guess is that we will
              probably get a pretty good idea of what she will have to say by watching the Tiger
              Closing Powers.  Right now, the DIA's, SPY's and QQQ's are still falling.  
              We can afford to wait a little before adding to long positions.  Our Tiger Stocks'
              Hotline remains hedged.  Many of the Bearish MINCP stocks actually fell today.

                 -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->   84 +35     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/17/2014)   
          -->   90 -55    MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/17/2014)  Bearish plurality 
            -->   50 +14  New Highs on NASDAQ 10 -7  new lows. Bullish plurality
             -->  51 +19   New Highs on NYSE   8 -8   new lows.  Bullish plurality  


==================================================================================
                                                 OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
              3/14/2014   It's a confusing market now because the DJI and foreign markets
              are so much weaker than the other US indexes.  Usually, the DJI eventually
              wins such a "tug of war", but it could take months if 2014 behaves like 1977
              when the DJI steadily eroded and stayed much weaker than the rest of the
              market.    Or if we forget the good breadth, dismissing it as an artificial consequence of
              the Fed's elongated policy of bank subsidies and low interest-rates, then the
              market takes on the appearance of 1967-1968, 1999-2000 and 2007-2008.
              That is would be bad: every new break in the A/D Line or a 65-dma will then cause
              additional heavy selling of some previously favored group, until in the
              end, there are not enough rising groups to support the market.

              Distinguish between the different markets and sectors by relative strength.
              Trade long the stronger markets and short the weak markets.  They are going
              in very different directions.  As an example, contrast the rising low-priced stocks now
              with the generally falling foreign ETFs.

              Crimea voted to join Russia.  The US has said it would employ sanctions against
              Russia for annexing it.  The Europeons will be the ones who suffer from the
              American intrusion into matters 12,000 miles away.  They need Russian natural
              gas.   Early next week the DJI will retreat further below the support of its 65-dma.
              Its next best price support is at the February closing low of 15372.8.

              The different markets' moves in this environment become quirkier and more short-term.   
              This means we will want to use all our best short-term trading tools to supplement
              and make sense of the Peerless signals.

              Friday, the DJI did close below 16100, but breadth was positive and the NASDAQ
              and many secondary stocks are still strongly uptrending.  It is important that
              SPY and IWM have not fallen below their 65-dma.  Still, their Closing Powers
              are falling, so they are not yet "safe" to buy.




             Leading biotechs fell further Friday, however.  There is a flight from well-known
             growth stocks to the safety of dividend paying stocks. 

             With the DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM Closing Powers falling, with the Stochastic-20s
             not yet below oversold (+20), with these ETFs' MACDs on Sells and their
             Short-term IDOSC readings falling, the market still seem svulnerable.

             Being hedged now with bearish MINCP stocks to match any long bullish
             MAXCPs seems a reasonable approach.  I see no reason yet to buy a major
             market ETF.   

               -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->   49 -52     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/14/2014)   
          -->   145 +68    MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/14/2014)  Bearish plurality 
            -->   36 +13  New Highs on NASDAQ 17 -6 new lows.
             -->  32 +18   New Highs on NYSE   16 -13   new lows.   Bearish plurality  


                                                         The Lessons of 1977

              The best earlier example of a failing DJI coupled with a very strong NASDAQ
              and NYSE A/D Line comes from early 1977.  Like then, as now, we saw
              rising commodity, especially oil and precious metals' prices.  Like then, as now,
              interest rates were soon to go back up.  Back in 1977, it was not until the
              DJI fell more than 10% that breadth turned weak and not until the DJI
              fell more than 13.5% that the NASDAQ started to suffer.  See the DJI-NASDAQ
              1976-1977 and 1977 charts below.

                                           Tiger-Peerless Short-Term Indicators:
                          Closing Power, Stochastic-20, MACD and Chaiken Idosc

              A market like 1977 may be what lies in store for us now.  The primary lesson I drew
              from this period was was that the DJI eventually wins the struggle between it and
              the rest of the market.  But it could take many months. 
    
              Another thing to note: in the first half of 1977, the DJI did not fall all the
              way down to the lower band after March, thereby preventing Buy B9s that would
              have been unsuccessful anyway.  They would have failed because the DJI
              consistently afterwards did not rally close enough to the upper band to get a
              Peerless Sell, something like we just saw in February.  In this environment,
              one could still have made quick trades on the long side as long as one also watched
              for the ultimate breakdown by the DJI below the 10%-down-from-the high-level and
              watched for breaks in the short-term uptrends of the NYSE A/D Line, the NASDAQ
              itself and from short-term trading tools.  

              Until the end of the year, short-term traders in 1977 and in the DJI needed to use
              other Peerless/Tiger tools than the automatic Peerless Buys and Sells.  Recommended
              are the 20-day Stochastic, MACD buys and Sells using Tiger and the Chaikin IDOSC
              indicator.    See these below. 

 
==================================================================================
                                                          OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
              3/13/2014      A DJI close below 16100 will probably drop it to 15300.
              Closing Power traders should see that the CP trends are now clearly down.
              So, there appears no reason to hurry in and buy on this weakness.  Our Stocks'
              Hotline, which is governed by short-term expectations now, is short about
              twice as many stocks as we are long, having sold the long leveraged ETFs.

              The sharp drop in the current Accumulation Index (IP21) over the last week
              is more likely to indicate we should sell than that we should buy, though
              such a signal does not have enough occurrences in March to be very
              certain of the likely consequences.  

               -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->   49 -52     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/13/2014)   
          -->   145 +68    MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/13/2014)  Bearish plurality 
            -->  23  New Highs on NASDAQ 23 new lows.
             -->  14   New Highs on NYSE   29  new lows.   Bearish plurality 

              Note that the DJI still has not closed below 16100, so intermediate Peerless
              traders may still win out with the "expanded Buy B9".  Traders who need to try to
              catch every swing between the upper and lower bands probably acted on the
              Closing Power trend-breaks given the persistent failure of the different indexes
              and general market ETFs to get past their resistance levels.  Remember
              that the market is always searching for resistance and support.  When it can't
              surpass a resistance level, it goes searching for support, and vice verse.

              I did suggest some profit-taking here.  The Stochastic-20 Sells I mentioned last night.
              The megaphone patterns in the DJI, SPY, QQQ and NASDAQ are a late-stage
              sign of excessive speculation.  In them, the swings become wilder and wilder.
              That means the next support level may be a big problem, especially with the
              bull market now a full 60 months' old. 

              I mentioned that I would become worried if the DJI could not hold up above its
              65-dma with the current "expanded Buy B9".  If the current case is going to be like
              earlier such B9s in strong uptrends, then it should not close decisively below
              its 65-dma.   If, in fact, it does break that support, then that calls into question the
              "expanded Buy B9" here.  In that case, I said I would expect a decline to the
              previous lows where we will see a test of that support. 

              Well, the DJI did not close below 16100 today.  That's good.  The NASDAQ is still
              far above its 65-dma.  That's good.  And I don't think Russia is going to move
              any troops into the Eastern Ukraine.  They want the Crimea because of their
              naval base there.  But not the Eastern Ukraine.  I believe that they still hope they
              can impress on NATO how provocative and destabilizing in their eyes it would be
              for a far-right Ukraine Gov't. to host NATO missiles pointed at Moscow 475 miles away. 
              If I'm right,  then the bloodshed in Donetsk and Kharkov will be tolerated if its does
              not get much worse.  I certainly could be wrong; the violence in the Ukraine has
              been self-escalating.   Donetsk is 49% Russian and 48% Ukraine.  How can
              both sides be accommodated peacefully when compromise and tolerance are not
              being given a chance? 

                            What Is The Meaning of A Rapid Decline in The IP21?

              Technically, it is bearish that the Accumulation Index has dropped below its
              21-day ma.   Worse, I fear, is how rapidly it has fallen from its highs a week ago.
              Rapid big changes upward in the Accumulation Index can bring Buy B4s.
              Should there be a similar new Sell S4?   The Accumulation Index here has
              dropped, from  +.161 on 3/5/2014 to +.01 today, 6 days later.  How bearish in
              history are such rapid declines of the Accumulation Index?

              Why did we get no Sell S4 signal today with the present rules?  The Assume. Index
              did drop below its 21-day ma.  The reason is that the current Sell S4 requires there
              first be a DJI rally of more than 8%-9%.  The February rally was less.   
             
                                              Still Positive Internal Strength Indicators

                          DJI          change     la/ma         anorak         P-I                             IP21                              V-I             Oct          65-day 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Pct Change
     -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     
     3/11/14        16351      -67         1.01        .41       +439       -133     .072       -.053        +30        +.165      .029     
     3/12/14        16340      -11         1.007     .396      +438           -1     .078       + .006       +33        +.076     .032
==================================================================================   

==================================================================================
                                                   OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
              3/12/2014       Remain bullish as long as the Dai's Support at 16100 is not closed
             below.    The "expanded Buy B9" averages a 13% gain.   The typical behavior of
             the DJI "V" formation is bullish after two or three weeks of consolidation just below
             the breakout point and down to the 65-dma.  The Closing Powers of QQQ and
             and SPY slightly broke their short-term downtrend as they rebounded from their
             rising 21-dma.   The internal strength readings for the DJI of the P-I, V-I, IP21 and
             Oct are all positive.   Since 1965, the DJI has risen 66% of the time over the the month
             following March 12th and has gained 1.5% on average.

                                           Still Positive Internal Strength Indicators
                            DJI             change        la/ma         anorak         P-I                           IP21                         V-I           Oct       65-day  Pct Change
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------          
     3/11/14        16351            -67         1.01        .41       +439        -133     .072   -.053        +30        +.165           .029     
     3/12/14        16340             -11         1.007     .396     +438            -1      .078  +-.006       +33        +.076           .032
==================================================================================

              But I sense the pull-back/consolidation is not over. I show below the signs that
              low-priced stock speculation has just gotten much riskier in the last week.
              At the very least, the market needs to work off its over-bought condition.
              Note the pair of new automatic red Sells on TAN based on Stochastic. 
              In addition, the Dai's 20-day Stochastic, Pct-D and K-Line have dropped below
              80.  I have placed the signals from these on the DDI chart below.

               -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->   101 +39     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/12/2014)   Bullish plurality 
          -->   77 -10    MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/12/2014) 
            -->  33 -10  New Highs on NASDAQ  10 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->  32   New Highs on NYSE   21  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

                                      Let's Watch the Tiger Indexes of Low Priced Stocks

            The Low Priced, Chinese and Biotech groups have provided many the biggest gainers this year. 
             My survey of the stocks between  $1-$8, shows a number of them have had serious declines
             in the last week.   Will this take the wind out of their sails or will they quickly return to favor.
             I think this will tell us how robust the speculative energies are now.  Let's continue to watch
             the Tiger Index of Low Priced Stocks, $1-$7 (N=579) to see if it hold up above its recent
             support.  We don't want to overstay our welcome.  Low priced stocks often make a person
             wait a long time to get out even once they break-down late in a bull market.             
   
                                      5-day   high    5-day low   3/12/2014            5-day pct change
                      BLDP        8.25                 4.25             5.36
                      BSPM       3.5                   2.15             2.15
                      CNTF        3.0                   2.2               2.27
                      DPW         2.1                   1.19              1.19
                      FCEL        4.6                   2.65              3.37
                      GERN      4.6                   1.5                 1.69   -2.71 today
                      GIGM      1.71                 1.40               1.49                              -65%
                      HDY         5.30                 1.10               2.19 -3.07 today         -60%
                      HILL        6.0                   3.6                 3.84                             -36%
                      HOV        6.2                    4.8                4.9
                      HRT        7.0                    4.5                5.09                       AI/200=185
                      NVTL     2.80                  2.0                 2.04
                      SNTA      6.5                   4.5                  4.55
                      ZGNX     4.6                    3.5                 3.5  

==================================================================================
                                                        OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
             3/11/2014    Remain bullish as long as the DJI's Support at 16100 is not closed
             below.    The "expanded Buy B9", the typical behavior of DJI "V" formations
             and the still positive internal strength readings of the P-I, V-I, IP21 and OPct  lend
             hope that this will be a shallow decline and that it will prove to be a constructive
             consolidation.
                                           Still Positive Internal Strength Indicators
                DJI     change          la/ma         annroc         P-I                           IP21                         V-I           Opct       65-day  Pct Change
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------          
     3/11/14        16351            -67         1.01       .41    +439        -133     .072   -.053       +30        +.165           .029     

             Watch the current Accumulation Index.  It fell by a large amount today.
             The IP21's dropping below its 21-day ma may give us a Sell S4.  Whether it does
             or not, its falling below its 21-day ma now with the DJI having failed to make a new
             high would look bearish.  It would  make the DJI look a lot like when S4s stopped DJI
             advances in the Marches of  1937, 1981 and 2005.             
            
             Today's breadth worsened as the steep A/D Line uptrendline was broken
             The markets also closed substantially below their openings and so the short-term Closing Powers
             of DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM... are all declining.   Professionals  have become net sellers for now.
             Several of our most Distributed bearish MINCP stocks broke their support levels.  Short-
             covering can no longer hold them up.  MINCP stocks now out number MAXCP stocks.
             The number of bullish looking stocks that warrant consideration for new purchase
             has been greatly reduced. 

                                                   A "Line in The Sand"

             I think we have to draw a line in the sand, as it were, where a minor pull-back would
             start   looking too much like an intermediate-term retreat.   Right now the DJI's 21-day ma
             and its rising 65-day ma are nested and so should be good support.  This is also
             the point at which the DJI rose more than 5% from its bottom, and so took on
             a bullish momentum despite the earlier Sell S16.  However, a close below 16100
             would make the current chart appear to look different than earlier "expanded
             B9s" in a rising market.  Odds would then shift for the market's outlook.  The
             stage then would be set for a re-test of 15300-15400.

                                       Watch the DJI relative to its 65-dma and
                      the Current Accumulation Index (IP21) relative to its 21-dma



               -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  
              -->   62 -44     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/11/2014)   
          -->   87 +20    MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/11/2014)     Bearish plurality 
            -->  43 -33  New Highs on NASDAQ  10 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->  29   New Highs on NYSE   20  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

             "Expanded Buy B9s" are rare.  There are only three earlier cases of it appearing in
              a market with a rising 65-dma and 200-dma.  the earliest case was in December 1928.
              In this case, the DJI did not stall out before it surged to new highs.  It appears
              our case is not so strong.  The next two 1933 instances followed a long bear market.
              But the key moving averages were rising strongly.  Here the DJI rose for
              six weeks after the B9s before breaking its 65-dma.   The 1943 Buy B9 was
              different from our case in that it took place below both a falling 65-day and
              200-day ma.   The conclusion I reach, based on these few cases that resemble
              the present "expanded B9" is that we should not now see a clear violation of the
              65-dma by the DJI if this case is going to play out like the first three cases
              below.  

                   Earlier Expanded Buy B9s
#1   12/11/1928 very good.  Gain = +.161   65-day up-pct = .126

la/ma ann-roc PI PI-ch IP21 V Opct 65-dayup-pct
.958    .263 -24  +18  .028  -511 .13       .126
Also already a Buy B2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------        
#2 7/24/1933 94.3 Gain = +.054 65-day up-pct = .304

la/ma ann-roc PI PI-ch IP21 V Opct 65-dayup-pct
 .932 .165 12 49 -.145 -528  .082    .304      
Also A Buy b6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------[--
#3 8/1/1933 92.7 Gain = +.072 65-day up-pct = .268

la/ma ann-roc PI   PI-ch IP21     V Opct 65-dayup-pct
.927  -.641   -19    9   -.171   -630 .012 .268
Also a buy B16
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#4 11/8/1943 131.7 164 Gain = +.254 65-day up-pct = -.038

la/ma  ann-roc PI   PI-ch IP21    V    Opct    65-dayup-pct
.958   -.527   158    32 -.261   126     -.225  -.038
Already a Buy B9 under previous rules
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   Avg.Gain = +.133


                Expanded Buy B9s: 1928-2013

==================================================================================
             3/10/2014      Patience.  Expect More Consolidation and Reduced Volatility
             After a week or two, if the good breadth continues, the "expanded B9" is not
             reversed and the internal strength reading for P-I, V-I, IP21 and OPct stay
             positive on the DJI, I think we can a 5%-10% lunge upwards to new highs. 

             Right now volatility is waning.  Consolidation just below resistance seems the governing
             technical principle now   The different markets have reached their strongest resistance
             levels.  But cannot breakout.  The DJI, which Peerless focuses on, seems unable
             for now to get past 16550.  But its "V" pattern is usually favorable unless the
             Accumulation Index drops all the way back below its rising 21-day ma.  Most often,
             after a period of consolidation, these patterns produce upside breakouts. 

             IWM and TNA also show bearish red popsicles.  It's best to take profits in them.
             But I said yesterday that I thought the pull-back will not be deep. The DJI's most likely
             support is about 2% lower between 16000 and 16200, I believe. 

             Since 1965, the DJI rallies only 53.2% over the next two weeks, but 66% of
             the time over the next two months.   Over the past year, Mondays have
             risen only 46.9% of the time.  Wednesdays are worse, rising only 43.1% of
             the time.   But Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays are up 63.4% of the time.
             Daily price change volatility is diminishing and may wane some more.  

             I think the A/D Line will firm up again dramatically if we are going to see
             a breakout.   Right now, it is retreating reluctantly.. 
            

                  -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  



              -->  106 -36     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/10/2014)    Bullish plurality 
          -->    67 +5        MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/10/2014) 
            -->   76 +5  New Highs on NASDAQ     new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->   46 -45   New Highs on NYSE   +7  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

==================================================================================
                                                          OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
                   3/7/2014    The "expanded Buy B9" is boosting the DJI and Bank Stocks.
                   But 10-year interest rates are starting to rise, the V-Indicator has turned down
                   in over-bought territory, the DJI has not achieved a breakout and the NASDAQ
                   seems unable to surpass it rising resistance line.

                   Despite the "B9" we should worry, I think, about the NASDAQ's megaphone pattern.
                   In particular, the weakening biotechs may cause speculators generally a change of heart. 
                   There's a limit to how far even biotechs can rally and how much the Government
                   may be willing to pay for pills under the new Obama Care. 

                   We see lot of warnings in the form of red popsicles in the key ETFs.  The
                   steep uptrendines in the Closing Powers have mostly been broken.  But such
                   breaks are more potent after they fail to confirm a new high.  That has not
                   happened yet.  Breaks in CP confirmed uptrendlines often means "consolidation"
                   rather than "retreat".

                        -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  142 -70     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/7/2014)    Bullish plurality 
          -->    62 +16        MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/7/2014) 
            -->   71 - 40  New Highs on NASDAQ   7 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->   91 -26   New Highs on NYSE  6  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

                   The good news is that the NYSE A/D Line remains in an uptrend, the V-Indicator
                   is positive, the current Accumulation Index is above its 21-day ma and there
                   is no DJI head/Shoulders pattern.   So a major March top is unlikely for the DJI
                   and, since history shows how closely bank stocks correlate with Peerless, for
                   the Big Banks.   We must watch to see if the NASDAQ continues to weaken
                   relative to the DJI 

                    The fact remains, the NASDAQ's broadening pattern is dangerous without an
                    upside breakout above the rising resistance.   It shows a speculative market and
                    often there is not much support underneath the market for a long ways down.  Added
                    to that,  the leading biotechs keep selling off on high volume and many show a Closing
                    Power that is near the stock's yearly lows.  As we know from the 1999-2000
                    speculative top, Crude Oil in 2008 and Gold/Silver stocks 18 months ago, it is the
                    Closing Powers that turn down first and start making new lows ahead of prices. 
                    This is how over-speculated, "bubble" stocks top out and turn down after a wild,
                    public-buying binge.

                                                  Dangerous to Your Health

                    Biotechs are now dangerously priced.  Consider GILD.  It  has a great hepatitis drug,
                    which another company (VRUS) developed before GILD bought them out.  Lots of
                    people are starting to question if GILD's CEO should now be worth a Billion
                    because its Hepatitis Drug's treatment for 12-weeks sells for $84,000.   Biotechs
                    are now being priced as though there will be no populist backlash against
                    biotech profiteering.  They are probably correct given the current Congress and
                    President.    But investors should look further ahead, too.
                                     Gilead CEO Becomes Billionaire on $84000 Hepatitis Drug



                    A number of leading biotechs over $40 now show Closing Power close to or at
                    their 12 month lows, thus far ahead of price:  AEGR, BAX, BBH, CELG, GILD,
                    PCYC and PCYC. A few have already fallen through a trap-door. CEMP seems
                    to be on the verge of doing that. It has only 38 employees,  But its lead
                    drug to treat hospital-born bacterial pneumonia is in Stage -III.  Why are
                    Professionals dumping the stock?  As long as the Closing Power is falling, it
                    must be considered a candidate for a serious breakdown. 



                
                                            Watch The DJI's Accumulation Index.
                              If It Falls below Its 21-dma, We May Get A Sell Sell S4

                    The DJI's "V" pattern is more auspicious.  Compare the V-pattern now with
                    the "V" pattern of last September-October.  Back then it took a two week
                    consolidation to prepare a run to new highs.  I suspect that's what the DJI
                    must do now.  Study the DJI-formations in history.  We probably should
                    mostly pay attention to the cases where the DJI first retreats back below
                    the lower band and then rapidly recoveries back to the old highs.  After a pause
                    and consolidation, V-formations usually bring breakouts unless the internal
                    strength indicators have turned negative or we get a Sell Signal.

                    The two notable exceptions to the rule that V-formations bring breakouts are
                    December 1976 and October 2007.  In both cases, the internal strength indicators
                    are were positive at the top.  So, Sell S4s are important.  They occur when the
                    Accumulation Index falls below its 21-day ma.  These can occur in the year of
                    mid-term Elections, as February 1994 shows. 




 
==================================================================================
                                             OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
                  3/6/2014    Give The Market a 'Chance to Dance Higher'.   For now, the
                  "expanded Buy B9" seems to be living up to its advanced billing, where its
                  past signals have gained 13% on the DJI.

                  The A/D Line remains very bullish.  Professionals are not yet selling.  March
                  is not usually a market of tops.  The NASDAQ could still breakout above its
                  rising resistance line and go hyperbolic to 5000.  On the NYSE, the number
                  of new highs expanded.  TNA still seems a good ETF to play the market now. 
                  But don't over-look high Accumulation breakouts among the Bullish MAXCPs.

                       -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  212 -67     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/6/2014)    Bullish plurality 
          -->    46 +1        MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/6/2014) 
            -->  111 -1  New Highs on NASDAQ   8 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->   117 +35   New Highs on NYSE  3  new lows.   Bullish plurality 


                 Biotechs have weakened somewhat, but big banks, a good measure of Fed intentions,
                  all rose today.  It's bullish that leveraged BAC and leveraged semi-conductors
                  generally advanced.  True, gold and silver rose; so, this could bring on a much weaker
                  Dollar and then higher interest rates.  However, TNX is still below its falling 650dma
                  at 2.8%,
                 
                  For now, the Bullish MAXCP stocks remain strong.  This confirms the Buy B9, I think.
                  There just are not many Bearish MINCP stocks to consider much shorting
                  for hedging purposes.  

                                            The Dangers of Macho Election-Year Posturing
                         You Probably Do Not Know How Close We Came to WW-III in 1962?

                  China will be likely be the beneficiary as the US risks a new Cold War, with Obama and Kerry
                  trying to claim the high moral ground in condemning Russia for invading the Crimea
                  based on lies and trumped up charges.  As I've said before, there is no way Russia
                  will be dislodged from the Crimea, its naval base there pre-dates the founding of the
                  United States.

                  But all this heavy-handed posturing could become very dangerous.  What would be very
                  dangerous would be if new Ukrainian Government were to join NATO and point missiles at
                  Moscow, just 467 miles away from Kiev. This would bring on a highly dangerous reverse
                  Cuban Missile Crisis!   The DJI fell 27% in the first half of 1962.

                  For now, the stock market seems to like all this macho posturing.  As always, it sees
                  profits in war preparations.  It's the actual fighting it reacts badly to. If you doubt this,
                  see how the DJI rose in 1916 but fell apart in 1917; how it rose in 1939 and much of 1940
                  but fell apart with the German torpedoing of the US Greer in 1940 and then
                  with the US Oil Embargo of Japan, which was the prelude to Japan's attack on the US.
                  Or how the DJI rose throughout the 1950s and until 1962 when the Cuban Missile
                  Crisis came very much closer to starting a nuclear exchange than most Americans realize.
                  Most do  not know how close we came to war.  Read the story of how  Vasili Arkhipov single-handed
                 stopped the Soviet submarine K-19 from launching a nuclear-headed torpedo at the height of the US embargo   
                  of Cuba in 1962.

                                                            MACHO is In Style Now.

                   WWE (WorldWide Wrestling) has found a way to cut out the middle-man, lower prices
                   for consumers and make money for shareholders.  If successful, its model will be closely
                   studied by other companies that still hold  the rights to their media content.                   



                                                        Long-Term Drought and De-Salinization

                    Leading de-salinization stocks are starting to move.  This is another story-area
                    for investors that will surely quench the thirst for some big profits long-term.
                    The four best de-salinization stocks I can find are CWCO, ERII, TTEK and LIQT.



                                        China Looks Better and Better to Speculators

                Look at how low priced Chinese stocks jumped today.  CPSL rose 94% today. Other
                big gainers among Chinese stocks were:  ZA 2.12 +13%, YGE 6.78 +12%, TSL  18.19 + 11%.
                None showed much prior Accumulation.  So, they are probably not tightly held and
                should quickly give back their gains.   China will surely emerge as the victor of a new Cold
                War between Russia and the US.  CBPO, China Biologic Properties, on the other hand
                shows lots on insider buying and should run much higher on a move past 38. 

==================================================================================
                                                          OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================

                 3/5/2014    Give The Market a 'Chance to Advance'.  The "Expanded Buy B9"
                 has caused a number of our Bullish MAXCP stocks to explode to new highs.  This
                 is entirely in keeping with a late-bull market small cap and NASDAQ vertical ascent.
                 A number of high Accumulation NASDAQ stocks are running upwards ahead of
                 the slower moving and lagging DJI.

                                                     Positive Internal Strength Indicators

               DJI           change          la/ma         annroc            P-I      change         IP21        V-I        Opct      65-day  Pct Change
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
    3/5/14   16360     -35          1.02        .735         +695    +101     +.161    +99     .255        .016
    3/4/14   16396  +228         1.025      .520         +593    +134     +.115     +60     .234         .020        
     3/3/14   16168   -124          1.013      .239         +458     -124     +.095    +12     .115        .005
     2/28/14 16322    +49          1.024      .436         +582     +109     +.096    +41     .203        .015       
     2/27/14 16273    +75          1.023      .258         +473        -21     +.076    +15    .095         .016           
     2/26/14 16198    +19          1.019      .270         +493     +103     +.057    +20      .091        .018   
                
                 All our key internal strength indicators remain positive.   This makes it hard
                 for a Sell signal of any kind to appear.  It makes it very hard to get a top before
                 a DJI decline of more than 15%,
     
       
                     -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  279 -82     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/5/2014)    Bullish plurality 
             Quite a few low priced stocks (<20) with IP21>.33 produced Buy B12s and new highs
             this week.   See the charts of  MXWL, PPHM, RENN, GRO, RFMD, and NPD in the
             Bullish MAXCP stocks tonight.,

          -->    45 +1        MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/5/2014) 
            -->  113 -78  New Highs on NASDAQ   8 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->   78 -124   New Highs on NYSE  4 -5  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

                  When one looks back at stock market history, one is struck by how nearly always a
                  major top requires months of Advance Decline bearish diivergence and/or a
                  negative readings from either the P-Indicator, Accumulation or V-Indicator
                  with the DJI at the upper band.  I count 21 major DJI sell-offs of more than 15%.

                   Negative Non-Confirmations of a DJI advance to the upper band were the way
                   bull market normally signed off.  The NNCs came most frequently from
                   the V-Indicator at these major tops.

                                    Frequency of NNCs at Major Market Tops:       685.5-566
                 
PI<0                1929     1937   1939   1957                                     1969     1972  1980                       1987   (8)
IP21<.008      1929                                       1960     1961  1966               1972   1980            1984   1987  (8)
VI<= 0            1929     1937   1939    1957    1960                         1969    1972   1980  1981 1984  1987  (11)
OPct<0                        1939     1957                        

PI<0                 1990                 2000     2007               total   11
IP21<.008                  1998       2000                           total   10
VI<=0               1990   1998      2000    2007   2011    total 16
OPct<0                                                                                                                                                                                      

===================================================================================
                3/4/2014   
                                               Closing Power Is Exceptionally strong
                                  The Unusual Momentum Favors More of An Upside Run.
                      TNA looks like the best ETF play for a Nasdaq vertical accent run to 5000.

                       The "expanded Buy B9 is proving its worth.  The simplicity of just
                 waiting for an A/D Line uptrtend-break or a Closing Power uptrend-line break before
                 taking long profits is also being vindicated.  Small caps are now the leaders.



                     -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  371 +111     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/4/2014)    Bullish plurality 
          -->    44 -1        MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/4/2014) 
            -->  191 +113  New Highs on NASDAQ   ? new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->   202 +107   New Highs on NYSE  9 -6  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

                 We saw quite a recovery today.  The NASDAQ has soared to a new high and
                 closed at 4351.97.  A move by it above 4400 would likely start a swift vertical ascent
                 to 5000.  The NYSE and S&P both made a new highs and completed bullish inverted
                 head/shoulders pattern.  The OEX close right at its December and January highs.
                The lagging DJI closed at a a downtrending resistance line drawn through its December
                 and January peaks.

                                               The Best Leveraged ETFS Now.

                 Running the Tiger Power Ranking program now against the leveraged ETFs
                 should give us a good idea where to place aggressive trading money.  TNA +5.83
                 the 3x Small Cap ETF is the highest Power Ranked.  It appears to be on the verge of
                 moving past its rising resistance line.  Its internals are superb.  AI/200=174,
                 IP21 = .253.  Both Opening and Closing Power are rising.  URTY+6.79   -Russell-2000-Ultra
                 looks very similar.  The third highest Power Ranked is TQQQ +2.59



                 There is no evidence yet that Putin wants to force a showdown over the Easter Ukraine region.
                  The Russian ETF, RSX, even rallied.  Perhaps, cooler heads and diplomats will win out.
                  Obama's solution, a billion dollar loan to the new Ukrainian government, should bring
                  much needed stability and public safety if the Svoboda tough guys go back home.
                  Recall how Hitler rose to power with much help from the Brown Shirt street thugs
                  A key question now: Can Ukraine Control Its Far Right Ultranationalists? How
                  popular are they when elections are next held?  Will they accept the result and calm
                  down?   Will their party be given police powers in the new government?  Giving a
                  a billion dollars to these extremeists seems absurd?  How can that be avoided?

==================================================================================
                                                           OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
               3/3/2014    Russia has its hands full digesting the Crimea and the consequences
               of its re-taking it nack by force.  RSX's sharp break today is the way the West plays financial
               hardball with the Kremlin.   As expected, the US has responded verbally and diplomatically, but
               not militarily.  US interests are not at stake presently.  Russia has had de jure or de facto
               control of the Crimea for almost as long as there was a USA.  We'll keep watching this
               chart to see when the crisis over.

             
                                                             Cooler Heads

               It will take a while for the players to sort through the complications of the civil strife
               in the rest of the Ukraine.  But as long as there is no Russian military action in Eastern Ukraine,
               Western Europe, the US and NATO will likely accept the Russian control of the Crimea. 
               The rebound in the Futures today partly reflects the return of control to "cooler heads"
               both there and 10000 miles and 9 time-zones away back in New York.  

               Professionals started buying after 4 hours of selling today.   The Opening Powers decline in  
               the key ETFs - DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM - has largely been matched by the Opening Power's
               rise.   Now tomorrow we get to see with a much higher opening, if the Professionals
               will continue to buy even though the DJI has reached its falling resistance-line
               and its upper 3% band.   The excellent breadth (NY A/D Line, P-I and new highs -
               new lows) are firming up the market.  At last, the low interest rates may be getting
               some traction with Main Street. 

                   -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  263 +17     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (3/3/2014)    Bullish plurality 
          -->    45 +9        MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (3/3/2014) 
            -->    78 +9  New Highs on NASDAQ   ? new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->    95 +8   New Highs on NYSE  9 -6  new lows.   Bullish plurality 



               The "expanded" Buy B9 has not been reversed even short-term.  The Closing Powers
               are rising and the A/D Line is uptrending.  Next, it may be the DJI will be able to take out
               the overhead resistance line this coming week.  Since 1965, the DJI has risen 70.2%
               of the time over the two weeks following March 3rd.  But the upper band will not make
               that easy.

                                                             Positive Internal Strength Indicators

               DJI           change          la/ma         annroc            P-I      change         IP21        V-I        Opct      65-day  Pct Change
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------          
     3/3/14   16168   -124          1.013      .239         +458     -124     +.095    +12     .115        .005
     2/28/14 16322    +49          1.024      .436         +582     +109     +.096    +41     .203        .015       
     2/27/14 16273    +75          1.023      .258         +473        -21     +.076    +15    .095         .016           
     2/26/14 16198    +19          1.019      .270         +493     +103     +.057    +20      .091        .018   

                                                      Commodity Prices in Upswing.   


             

               There is another thing to worry about.  It only a matter of time before the
               very sharp rise in commodities, especially food prices, gets press and public attention. 
               This, in turn, will likely accelerate the Fed's decommissioning of the FED's QEIII
               buying of long-term mortgages.  This makes it seems risky now to take on more than
               very short-term long positions. 

               But bull markets usually end with A/D Line non-confirmations.  And this seems remote
               now.    So, perhaps, the expanded Buy B9 and the DJI's surpassing of the 5%-up-level from the
               late January bottom will bring DJI new highs, after all.  If that happens, then there remains
               a good chance for the NASDAQ to go vertical.

                                     Three New Conditions to Watch for and
                      for Me To Test and Write Programs To Flag

                                                            2 Bullish New Conditions


              
     

                                                         
                                                                   1 New Bearish Condition

                                           
==================================================================================
                2/28/2014       Russia is not going to back down about the Crimea, which
               is virtually an island, connected very narrowly to the Ukraine.  For now, we are in for a
               return to new Cold War.  Listen to Boehner s tough talk: Putin is a "thug:",

               The US military stocks will love this.  Russian ETFs will be punished.  A 10%
               decline might occur, but breadth is very good and US interests are not so evident.

               The real danger is what happens elsewhere in Ukraine. The Russian claim to the
               Ukraine is much stronger.  I do not expect Obama to admit this.  So, we could be
               led back into a new period of war preparations and cold war.  In the past, such
               crises brought 10%+ sell-offs.  It all depends on the diplomats and the American
               mass media coverage.  The Russians are not going to turn over the Crimea again
               to the Ukraine as Krushchev (a Ukrainian) did in 1954.



                      Fortunately, the Operative Peerless Signal is an "expanded B9".   Breadth is
                just too good to predict a big market decline.  We need a new Peerless Sell signal
                to even consider that a possibility.  The 6%+ rally up from the late January bottom
                is too much to be consistent with setting up a big decline at this time.  March tops are
                relatively rare.  When they occur, they usually occur because the P-I or IP21 is negative
                at the upper band.  All our Peerless key values are positive now.  I think we are safe
                for now. 

                                                    Positive Internal Strength Indicators

               DJI           change          la/ma         annroc            P-I                                  IP21        V-I        Opct      65-day  Pct Change
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------          
     2/28/14 16322    +49          1.024      .436         +582     +109     +.096    +41    .203       .015       
     2/27/14 16273    +75          1.023      .258         +473         -21     +.076    +15    .095       .016           
     2/26/14 16198    +19          1.019      .270         +493     +103     +.057    +20    .091       .018      

                However, the DJI could not get past its well-tested resistance line and it has
                nearly tagged its upper 3% band.  Looking back at DJI charts for the last 10 years,
                you can will see it is rare for the DJI to break above the 3.5% band.  But without
                a Sell signal, the declines have been limited to only dropping the DJI a little
                below the 21-day ma. 

                The Ukrainian Crisis looks like it will bring such a pull-back.  However, the
                Closing Power and A/D Lines have not broken their uptrends.   Our Tiger Stocks'
                Hotline is fully hedged while we wait for Peerless to give a Sell Signal or for breaks
                in these uptrends.  There are times to take risks in the market.  This is not one of them.
                Stock prices for the moment are now dependent upon political rather than market forces.



                 -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  246 +9     MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (2/28/2014)    Bullish plurality 
          -->    54 +9        MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (2/28/2014) 
            -->    78 +9  New Highs on NASDAQ   ? new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->    95 +8   New Highs on NYSE  9 -6  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

                Fears of a new Europeon War in the Ukraine will surely bring a pullback.
                The DJI's Futures are down 122.  At this week's Tiger Meeting (see work materials
                from it), I expressed the belief that this would all soon blow over.  The market's technicals,
                I said, should be sturdy enough to limit the decline to the DJI's 21-day ma.  The
                Russian ETF, RSX, will probably be hit a lot more than  the DJI.  Look at the heavy
                trading in it.



                                     If Eastern Ukraine Becomes A Battlefield,
                                        A Much Bigger Decline Could Start.

                Upon further reflection today, I'm not sure Obama is strong enough to resist
                the pressure on him from the American right. He may get us involved in yet
                another civil war 10,000+ miles away.   Surely, one hopes, he realizes that
                history in such matters has not been kind to such American involvements. 
                Unfortunately, all my adult life,  America keeps making the same mistake, in my view,
                over and over again getting involved in distant foreign civil wars when they can be
                couched in a US versus Russian or Communist framework for average TV
                American viewers by the mass media here.   America better back down.
                Russia will not.  They see the new Ukrainian leaders very differently than
                our media shows them to us.  They see them as the new Nazis next door.         

                                                

                                         Crimea, A Warm Water Port in The Black Sea.                                                    

                 It's not clear what difference to America or Europe the formal Russian
                control over the Crimea really means.  The Russian fleet has been there since 1800
                except during the German occupation in WWII.   The peninsula's population now
                is 60% Russian speaking.  Ukrainian and Tatar speakers are a minority.
                For Russia, the Crimea represents a warm port, a wonderful place to go on
                Summer vacation and a show case for Russian movies.  Krushchev, a Ukrainian,
                turned the Crimea over to the Ukraine in 1954 in what seemed to be only
                a token administrative change back then.  The Ukraine's claim to it now
                is too weak for NATO to make much of a fuss about.  But memories of the
                Cold War, which really began in 1917, do not fade quickly.

                It is the rest of  "the Ukraine" which is the big problem.  Too many Ukrainians
                seem to see their country's divisions as being beyond peaceful resolution. The Eastern
                half is Russian speaking and orthodox.  The Western half is Ukrainian and Catholic. 
                To them, this matters.  To someone far away, the differences between the Russian
                and Ukrainian languages seem limited to certain letters.  A Russian can understand most
                basic Ukrainian and with a little study vice verse.  The same is true of the religious
                differences.   To a non-Christian, the similarities between these two priest-oriented
                Chistian religions are not so easy to distinguish.

                                            New Nazis Right Next Door?   

Svoboda's Oleh Tyahnybok doing their party salute when re-elected their leader. Ukraine party accused of anti-Semitism receives top positions in new government Euromaidan: The Dark Shadows Of The Far-Right In Ukraine Protest Russia says the Ukrainian protesters are fascists and Nazis. Are they?

The Political Divide Is Very Wide.      People from Western Ukraine (Gallicia) speak a language more similar to Polish.  Poland ruled much of Gallicia, as late as 1941.   In the Russian Civil War, the White Army in Kiev fought the Red Army of Kharkov (Ukraine).  When the NAZIs came, many in Western Ukraine were quick to collaborate against the Red Army.      The dynamic leader of the fiercely anti-Communist Svoboda Party, Oleh Tyahnybok, gets much of his support from northwestern Ukraine.  Collaborating with the NAZIs is not a disgrace in Svoboda's Party circles. Those days are remembered with some sympathy by the contemporary Svoboda Party.  Early on, it chose the name Social Nationalists (reversing Hitler's "National Sociaist" party.  It uses the Nazi Party salute and the same Wolfsangel symbol that was used by the Waffen SS.       The Eastern half of the Ukraine gives this Svoboda Party only a miniscule portion of their vote.  But the  Svoboda is a major member of the new de facto government running Kiev now.  This scares all Ulrainians minorities, especially Jews, not just the Russian speaking Ukrainians in the East.                     Russian Fears run Deep     20,000,000 Russians died in World War II because of Fascism.  There is no way a Russian leader could permit a new Ukrainian Fascism to threaten Russians a mere 800 miles from Moscow.     When will our mass media talk about this very dark side of these anti-Russian Ukrainians?  Educated Europeons know these things.   Americans will gradually discover the Russian perspective is not going to change because Obama threatens "consequences".

Supporters of the right wing Svoboda Party march under the banner of a crooked cross, very     reminiscent of the Swastika.  The banner in Ukrainian says, "For the Dead, for the Living and     for the Unborn".

 

                  
==================================================================================
                2/27/2014      It seems that the "Expanded Buy B9" needs a new Sell signal to be
                reversed.    At the very least, it needs a trend-change in our measures of Professional (CP)
                and Day-Trading buying, if we are to expect even a short-term pullback.  Today
                SPY's Closing Power broke out above a series of flat tops.  That's usually bullish.
                So is the powerful surge in the A/D Line since Yellen became Fed Chairwoman.

                 -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  237 +52      MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (2/27/2014)    Bullish plurality 
          -->    46 -15         MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (2/27/2014) 
            -->     91 +18  New Highs on NASDAQ   ? new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->    79 +5   New Highs on NYSE  9 -6  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

                Have you noticed that the most bearish MINCP charts now are those of the short ETFs? 
                See the charts of SDS, RWM and TZA below.  This has to be bullish.

                It is true that many low-priced stocks have enjoyed unsustainable, wild run-ups since
                last Summer.  But more keep coming on line.  Individually, as long as their Closing Powers
                stay above their rising 21-day ma or their steep CP uptrends if they run up too far,
                they can be played safely, I think, by users of TigerSoft.    

                                       Yes, The Market Appears Over-Bought, but...             

                Each time I think a convenient pull-back is at hand because of the over-bought
                condition of the DJI relative to its 21-day ma, or the lagging Hourly OBV (DISI)
                Line or SPY's inability to make a decisively breakout, stocks move higher on economic
                news or comments by Yellen, the Fed Chairwoman.   Let's just wait for a new
                Peerless Sell or, at least, some change in the upper direction of the Closing Power
                or the Tiger Day Traders' Tool on SPY (see last chart tonight).  Obama's meeting
                privately with Boehner may yet yield something constructive.  I'm betting the
                Republicans will get aboard a big new (and patriotic) infrastructure rebuilding
                program, just as they did under Coolidge and Eisenhower.  That would be very
                bullish.   



             
                                                              Why fight the Fed? 

               Janet Yellen says we don't have a stock bubble.  Maybe, we should appreciate
               not whether she is right or wrong, but the effects that her statements have on stock prices.
               I think that each time we learn she is going to give a speech, we should buy before it.   

                      “Stock prices have risen pretty robustly,” she told Congress in November
                But looking at several valuation measures -- she specifically cited equity-risk premiums --
                I do "not see stock prices in territory that suggest…bubble-like conditions.” Source

                So,    bubbles last much longer than most shorts can tolerate.  That was true in
                1967-1968, 1999-2000 and even in  2008 when penny oil stocks went crazy.  Proof of this
                today were the rallies in some of the most (red) distributed (and shorted) stocks,
                like JCP below.   This means that even when hedging, if you go short, it works out best
                overall to cover when the steep Closing Power downtrend is violated.  Lots of back-testing
                validates this principle even in bear markets.  There are always more Bearish MINCP
                stocks to go short. 

             


       
      



                         

==================================================================================
                                                         OLDER HOTLINES
==================================================================================
                          2/26/2014             The SPY Needs to Plumb for Support
                         The very good breadth and expanded Buy B9 should limit the decline.
                          Use the Bearish MINCPs to be equally hedged with long positions.

                         With the Stochastic-20 over the 80-level and the DJI 1.9% over the 21-dma
                         the market is in overbought territory.  The SP-500 still has not broken out over its
                         key 1850 resistance.  Having found ressitance, the markets must search for support.

                         Fortunately, the internal strength indicators have turned positive.  This should
                         help limit the decline.  Futures are down today.  A DJI decline back to test its rising
                         21-dma at 16000 is needed. So stay fully hedged.  If the DJI breaks below its 21-day
                         ma, about 100 poin ts below today's close, we will probably see it fall to 15500.

                         But because the DJI is up a little more than 5% on this recovery, it is now more likely to
                         advance to new highs than retreat significantly.  I say this looking at the S16 cases
                         that did not bring sell-offs in March or April when they recovered more than  5%.
                         Notably 1934 and 1990.  If the DJI produces a new high, that would almost
                         certainly mean an SP-500 breakout run and the possibility of a NASDAQ/QQQ
                         vertical ascent above their uptrend resistance lines.  Peerless Sells
                         occur only in 1/4 of the cases when the DJI makes a new high in March.
                         So the bullish Spring seasonality may surprise traders if the DJI can make
                         another run to new highs.

                         When I consider the past results of the new "expanded Buy B9", I note that
                         it's average gain is 13.3%.  Breadth (A/D Line) is particularly strong now,
                         reflecting the low interest rates and Yellen's reputation as a "dove" (i.e.,
                         a Fed member who places concerns about a weak economic revival above
                         worries about signs of inflation.)

                         We see megaphone or diamond formations in development in the case of
                         DIA, SPY, QQQ... Usually, they do not reverse until a new high is made.
                         More often than not they are bullish.

               -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  185-10      MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (2/26/2014)    Bullish plurality 
          -->    61 -4         MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (2/26/2014) 
            -->     73 +8  New Highs on NASDAQ   8 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->    74 +11   New Highs on NYSE  15  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

                                                     Positive Internal Strength Indicators

                                 DJI     change          la/ma         annroc         P-I          IP21           V-I        Opct      65-day  Pct Change
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------          
     2/26/14 16198    +19            1.019      .270         +493     +103     +.057    +20    .091       .018     All are positive.                      
                                                          
                         The V-Indicator has turned positive.  But 10-day Down Volume is rising and
                         10-day Up-volume is falling.  That was not bearish enough last year in March
                         to drop the DJI below its 21-day ma.  In the research I did a few years ago on S9vs,
                         I found that 1st quarter bullish seasonality over-rode a negative V-Indicator
                         reading at the upper band.  There needs to be a bearish breadth divergence, too,
                         at this time of year.
                                http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/refinedS9v.htm

                         It may be that the Hourly OBV Line's declining slope may also be overridden
                         right now as long as breadth remains very good.  But clearly, there is some
                         heavy insitutional selling.

                                                                 Bank Stock Weakness

                         I do think it's a good idea to watch the bank stocks.    Yellen's "dovishness"
                         comes with a desire to see banks have higher reserve requirements.  I learned
                         in ECON-101 that tinkering with this potentially can have a big impact on
                         the economy.  Since the big banks are now as much inclined to use their extra reserves
                         to trade the equity, bond and currency markets as make loans, I would view any
                         news on this front - reserve requirement changes for the big banks -
                         as bearish for the markets.  This may explain the weakness now in Goldman Sachs
                         (GS), why JPM has also slipped below its 65-dma and why BAC could bearishly
                         break a lengthy uptrend.  She also may be more inclined to enforce the Dodd-Frank
                         limits on speculative trading, especially in commodities, as opposed to hedged
                         trading by big banks.  The new limits on Commodity trading has sparked a good
                         rally there.  
                                 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-05/traders-face-curbs-on-speculation-with-cftc-vote-on-new-limits.html



                                          March Peerless Sells in Rising Markets Are Infrequent

                         What can bring about a significant top in March in a rising market?  Here
                         are the cases of March tops since 1928 when the 65-day rate of change was
                         above -4.     March Sells are in rising markets did not occur in 1942, 1943, 1944,
                         1945, 1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1959, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1967, 1969, 1971,
                         1972, 1975, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997,
                         1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2011 (37 instances).  This suggests
                         that the odds are 37:13 against a March top if a new high is made next month.            

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              OLDER HOTLINES
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         2/25/2014     The market refuses to sell-off.  The DJI is still above its 65-dma.
                         Consider the past results of the new "expanded Buy B9.  Paper losses are inconsequential
                         and the average gain is 13.3% with these signals.  This make them one of the better
                         Peerless Buys.  We should definitely use it the future.  As for now, my judgement is
                         that we can employ the Buy B9 and go long SPY  (or DJI if you prefer) on a close
                         by SPY above its resistance, 186.  If there is no breakout, we will go long on a DJI
                        of SPY decline back to their 21-day ma.  That should act as support so long
                        as breadth remains so positive.  The S16s's warning of a bigger next decline
                        may still come true.  That would be a natural development in the broadening
                        top pattern we see in  the DJI and SP-500.

                           -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  195-47      MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (2/25/2014)   Bullish plurality 
          -->    65 +15       MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (2/25/2014) 
            -->     65 -45  New Highs on NASDAQ   10 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->    63 -44   New Highs on NYSE  12  new lows.   Bullish plurality 

                        The bearish devergence between the Hourly DJI and OBV (DISI) is increasing.
                        The Stochast-Pct-D-20 has reached the 80-level.  This means it is over-bought.
                        A decline from here would be signalled by a short-term Stochastic-20 sell.  I doubt if the
                        markets will runaway to the upside if there is a breakout.  With the IP21 still
                        negative, we could even get a new Peerless Sell at the 3% upper band (la/ma = 1.03).
                        What to do now in this environment?

                       Sell short bearish MINCP stocks/ETFs like MXF when they breakdown below
                        well-tested support.  Each short like this can be used to hedge a bullish MAXCP
                        stock.    The result is usually quite favorable to the hedger.
                        

Revised Buy B9. 2/24/2014; "Expanded Buy B9" Previously if the DJI reached the lower 3% band and the P-Indicator was positive, a Buy B9 results. The new B9 expands these parameters, by giving a Buy B9 if the P-Indicator is above -34 and the DJI is more than 4% below the 21-day ma provided it is not January or the the DJI is not more than 4% down from 65 days ago.                                    Earlier Expanded Buy B9s #1   12/11/1928 very good.  Gain = +.161   65-day up-pct = .126 la/ma ann-roc PI PI-ch IP21 V Opct 65-dayup-pct .958    .263 -24  +18  .028  -511 .13      .126 Also already a Buy B2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------        #2 7/24/1933 94.3 Gain = +.054 65-day up-pct = .304 la/ma ann-roc PI PI-ch IP21 V Opct 65-dayup-pct  .932 .165 12 49 -.145 -528  .082    .304      Also A Buy b6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------[-- #3 8/1/1933 92.7 Gain = +.072 65-day up-pct = .268 la/ma ann-roc PI   PI-ch IP21     V Opct 65-dayup-pct .927  -.641   -19    9   -.171   -630 .012 .268 Also a buy B16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #4 11/8/1943 131.7 164 Gain = +.254 65-day up-pct = -.038 la/ma  ann-roc PI   PI-ch IP21    V    Opct   65-dayup-pct .958   -.527   158    32 -.261   126    -.225  -.038 Already a Buy B9 under previous rules -------------------------------------------------------------------------------                    Avg.Gain = +.133 #5  2/4/2014  15445.24  up so far.   65-day Up-Pct was -.012 la/ma ann-roc PI PI-ch IP21 V Opct 65-dayup-pct .957 -.753 -30 10 -.149 -133 -.358 -.012   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In these expanded Buy B9s, the January cases must be eliminated. These failures all had an Up-Pct below -.125, so it's hard to know which of these two factors over-rides the bullishness of the expanded B9.                                           1)   1/29/2003 8110.71 TO 7524.03 3/11/04 and then 65day-Up-pct was -.139 2) 1/15/2009 8212.49 fell to 6547.05 ON 3/9/09 65day -UP PCT was  -.126 3)   1/23/2009 8077.57 fell to 6547.05 ON 3/9/09   65DAY -Up pct was =.129

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                        2/24/2014     With the DJI up more than 5% from its low, it seems clear it would
                        be best to incorporate a new expanded Buy B9 for those cases where the DJI is
                        4%-5% below the 21-day ma and breadth is improving and the P-Indicator
                        is above -34.  This always worked out well in the past from February to December
                        as long as the 65-day pct change was not below -.04.  A new Peerless with this
                        change and the ability to see longer 200-day and 149-da mvg avgs. will be
                        posted tomorrow on the Tiger ESP page. 

                        Secondary stocks, biotechs, gold and silver stocks, military stocks and
                        food commodities are the favored groups now.   Note, that in the past a rise in
                        gold and silver stocks is actually a warnng for the market.  That was true
                        for example in August of 1987.  When inflationary forces build up, the Dollar gets
                        weak and the Fed usually decides to raise interest rates.   Janet Yellen may not
                        be able to keep the more conservative Fed Governors from taking actions to
                        defend the Dollar.  Still, considering how far the Fed was behind the curve in 2008,
                         my guess is that they will be much more concerned about triggering another recession
                         than inflation. 

                        I do think we still have to be on guard that there will be another, bigger leg down
                        from a top in March.  It is worrisome that the SP-500 could not breakout decisively
                        above 1850 today.  The last hour's sell-off was on heavy volume.   See this in the
                        Hourly DJI chart below.  Bearishly, the DJI is now 2.2% over the 21-day ma
                        but the IP21 is negative, -.006.   This is not enough to bring a sell signal when
                        the P-Indicator is as positive as it is now.  But it does show lots of institutional selling
                        into the strength we are seeing.  Look at the 10-day day ma of NYSE Up and Down
                        Volume below.  They appear to be starting to bearishly converge.  In additon,
                        the Stochastic-20 for DIA and SPY have now reached the 80-over-bought levels. 
                        The Tiger Day Traders' Tool is still rising for DIA and SPY. 

                       The volume warnings suggest a pull-back seems likely.  This will probably have only
                        a small effect on the NASDAQ and QQQ.  Out TigerSoft Stocks' Hotline
                        remains about equally hedged long and short using the MAXCP and MINCP
                        stocks..   
                        
                            -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  242 +8      MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (2/24/2014)   Bullish plurality 
          -->    50 +4       MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (2/24/2014) 
            -->     110 +3  New Highs on NASDAQ   9 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->    107 +34   New Highs on NYSE   9  new lows.   Bullish plurality  

ARWR was driven up by underwriters to a big new issue of the stock.                      I think I would take profits in it.

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                       2/21/2014     Sell S16 - Watchful Waiting.  The DJI has not risen more than 5%
                       from its lows, but speculative "animal spirits" have taken over a number of
                       high performance funds.  None more than FBIOX (Fidelity biotech).

                       An SP-500 breakout over 1850 should bring another 5% advance.



                                    Another 1.5% Rally in DJI may bring a Peerless Sell S12

                       The DJI is now 1.5% over the 21-day ma.  The IP21 is -.011.   A lot of distribution
                        is taking place on this rally.  In addition, the Hourly DJI's chart shows a bearish
                        OBV (DISI) divergence now.  Somewhat higher DJI price will cause the 20-day Stochastic-Pct
                        to rise above 90, a level it has reached on every rally in the past year.  The Tiger
                        Traders' Tool has not yet turned down.              

                                  The most bullish factor now is still the Fed and the up-trend.

.                      This weekend a lot of people are reading about Janet Yellen dovishness in 2008
                       ahead of all the other Fed Governors in 2008.   2000 pages of FOMC and FED
                       minutes from 2008 were released on Friday.

                       This is important because many speculators believe the Fed will once again
                       be behind the curve just as they were in 2008.  Partly because of this but mostly
                       because of human nature,  it's a good bet that stock traders (large and small)
                       will be the victim of their own Animal Spirits (Keynes' term for what
                       swerves investors back and forth between excessive fear and excessive confidence.)
                       And to quote him again: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can
                       remain solvent".

                                                    The Fed's Biggest Fear Now:
                               Letting The Economy Slip into Another Deep Recession.

                       The minutes shed new light on the Fed in the Dark or off skiiing in Idaho (Mishkin)
                        while the bank stocks and then the economy plummeted down in 2008.  

                       The FED is clearly very wary of making the same mistake they made throughout
                       2008 when they badly underestimated the severity of the coming financial collapse.
                       Geithner's remarks at this time seem particularly uninformed and way off-base.
                       He was, after all, the head of the NY Fed.  His primary concern on March 18th, 2008
                       was that any pre-emptive actions by the FED would scare confidence away from the
                       markets.     Big US  banks were not "as a whole under-capitalized". This was a few days
                       after Bear Stearns had collapsed and its assets sold to JP Morgan.  (Source.)          
.                       
                       Bernanke, at least, had the good sense to call emergency FED meetings
                       starting in January 2008.  But he also badly underestimated how much the
                       mortgages' collapse and derivatives would affect the market.  On Sept. 16,
                       the day after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Bernanke declared,
                       “I think that our policy is looking actually pretty good.”    The Fed declined
                       at that meeting to cut short-term rates.  But three weeks later they were
                       forced to rescue AIG with a twenty billion bailout.  

                       In October, 2008, with the DJI below 900, Yellen was the most forceful Fed
                       member calling for action.  "Frankly, it is time for all hands on deck when
                       it comes to our policy tools...We need to do much more and the sooner the
                       better...I don’t believe in gradualism in circumstances like these.” Source.

                       Fisher in Dallas who had nearly always opposed rate cuts in October 2008
                       relented: “I will conclude with actually once again agreeing with President Yellen,
                       as I think I have done twice in history."

                       ---> Hedging by being long the most Accumulated Bullish MAXCPs and
                       short the most Distributed Bearish MINCPs keeps working out well.

                              -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  234 -27      MAXCP stocks  Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (2/21/2014)   Bullish plurality 
          -->    46 -9         MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (2/21/2014) 
            -->     107 +8  New Highs on NASDAQ   9 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->    73 -18    New Highs on NYSE   7  new lows.   Bullish plurality   

                      As long as the DJI is unable to move up more than 5% from its
                       recent botton, the bearish scenario remains alive for the DJI, wherein it falls back
                       in a second decline to lows. The best way to know that the market is too strong  
                       for this possibility anytime soon will be a powerful breakout by the SP-500.

                       Actually, there are three markets now.  First, there are the bullish MAXCP stocks
                       that keep surging to new highs after shallow retreats. Srcond, there are the majority of
                       stocks that are going sidewise, like the DJI-30, and are not close to making
                       breakouts or beakdowns.  Third are the more and more bearish MINCP stocks. 
                       These have broken their 65-dma, show Closing Powers at or near their year's lows 
                       and show an AI/200 score below 75.  These show no ability sustain much of a rally.
                       Instead some of these steadily decline week to week and some drop precipitously
                       at unexpected times, ofen when the market is up.

                        In this environment, I think we should  just wait to see whether the DJI will fall back or
                        the SPY-500, OEX and IWM will follow the lead of the QQQ and make new
                        highs.    Speculative markets like 1967-1968 and 1999-2000 teach us not to underestimate
                        the bullish stampede bt investors into the leaders of the time. 

                        On the other hand, the lessons of early 1977, mid-1986, early 2000 and 2001 and 2002
                        show that the DJI-30 lead the rest of the market downward and that these these other indexes
                        could top out 1-2 months after the DJI does.  In this bearish scario, a 10% decline is
                        the least depth that occurred.  Always Peerless was on a sell.  So, waiting now
                        for a clear A/D Line trendbreak and a Closing Power uptrend break should serve us
                        well now.  That would show the Sell S16 will producing its second leg down.
                        Such breaks could signal a significant sell-off by the whole market.  But, fortunately
                        for the bulls, such a top historically is not made until March at the earliest,
                        when there has been a 5% rally, like now. 

                               DJI     change    la/ma        annroc         P-I                 IP21           V-I        Opct           65-day  Pct Change   S20-Pct-D
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------          
    2/6/2014       15628    +188         0.973     -.667    -16           -..095    -121    -.357             000   Back above 200-dma
     2/7/2014       15794    -5             0.986     -.496    +83           -.058      -98    -.261            +.009     
    2/10/2014      15802    +8           0.988    -.478   +100          -.044       -99   -.176             +.011   
    2/11/2014      15995   +103        1.002    -.329    +119           -.014      -88    -.088            +.015 At 65-dma  
    2/12/2014        15995     -29      1.001    -.218    +205            .010      -66    -.083            +.023   
    2/13/2014        16028 +33      1.005    -.258    +216          .015      -69    -.086            +.016   
    2/14/2014        16154  +126      1.014    -.245    +221          .029       -71   -.02            +.023   
    2/18/2014        16130  -24       1.014    -.214    +246          .025      -66    -.095           +.024   
    2/19/2014       16041   -89       1.009     -.313    +227        -.009      -64   -.199            +.013   
    2/20/2014       16133   +92          1.016     -.211    +228         .015      -53   -.110            +.016   
    2/21/2014        16103   -30       1.015    -.202    +206         -.011     -59    -.120              +.008        +75   
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                     2/20/2014    Perhaps, the Sell S16 probably should have been reversed by a B9.
                      B9s typically occur near the 3.5% band with the P-Indicator positive.  The revised
                      B9 would occur 4.5% below the 21-day ma with P-Indicator no lower than -35
                      and rising. 

                      Bearish Scenarios.  The DJI is still not up more than 5% from the recent bottom.  That
                      means a significant second, delayed S16 decline could start in March. In addition,
                      a    rally 1.5% higher by the DJI would probably bring a new Peerless Sell.     

                      Bullish Scenario.   Traders, watch now for a bullish SP-500 breakout above its flat top
                      at 1850.  This should set off a buying surge.  Even a shallow pull-back here.
                      could set up a bullish continuation head and shoulders.  Either eventuality
                      would be quite bullish.  Traders should buy SPY on such a breakout at the
                      close.    It may signal a wild, vertical ascent and we would want to play that
                      possibility.         


            
                                                       5% Up Rule for DJI, Sell S16:
                                                      Towards A Revised Buy B9

              The 5% DJI rally up from the recent bottom may appear stronger than the
              unreversed Sell S16 should allow.   I would agree.  Accordingly,  I must look
              for new ways that might spot such reversals in the future.  The mere crossing back
              above the rising 200-day ma, however,  does not test well enough by itself, or
              even when good breadth is factored in.  Early 1977's Peerless chart shows this.
              What about a 3-day reversal pattern recognition, Michael in Germany has suggested? 
              I think that is an excellent idea. It needs to be tested. What about a revised B9 that
              looks for the DJI with these parameter?
                         la/ma < .959, P> -32. P-change>0 and 65-day up pct > -.015?

              This is more easily back-tested.  See below how well it works in most cases.  3 of the
              5 failures came in January.  These would be eliminated in the revised Buy B9.
              We can also eliminate the bear market cases by simply requiring the 65-day Up-Pct
              to be above -.05.  Let me do a little more study.  But I think with these modifications
              to a Buy B9, the program will be improved.    There were only 4 earlier cases where these
              parameters allapplied.  But some of the bear market occurrences would have produced
              outstanding gains.  Applying these parameters would expand the current B9 in a safe and
              reliable way, I think you will agree. 

                       Revised Buy B9 with parameters shown above
                        #1    12/11/1928 very good.  Gain = +.161     65-day up-pct = .126 Also already  a Buy B2 now,
                                       8/11/1930 OK 5.1%   65DAY PCT was -.151
                                       6/29/1932 Perfect  42.8 ---> 76.2 on 9/9/1932          65DAY PCT was -.422
                                #2 7/24/1933 94.3 --> 99.4 on 8/17 -  65-day up-pct = .304        Also another Buy
                                #3 8/1/1933 92.7 --->99.4 on 8/17 -  65-day up-pct = .268    Also another Buy
                                       11/18/1937 125.5   FELL TO 11 3.6 ON 11/24           65DAY PCT WAS -.387
                                       1/31/1938   121.9 --- 6.2% -->129.5  65DAY PCT WAS -.092
                                        3/23/1939 140.3 FELL TO 123.8 ON 4/11   65DAY PCT was -.071
                                #4 11/8/1943 131.7 TO 129.6 ON 11/30 and THEN ROSE A LOT Buy 65-day up-pct = -.038 Already a Buy B9
                                        10/9/1946 163.1 THIS WAS BOTTOM of BEAR MKT  65DAY PCT was -.214
                                        11/9/1948 CLOSE TO BOTTOM    173.9 ---> 171.2 and then up to upper band. 65-day up-pct = -.05
                                        1/29/2003 8110.71 TO 7524.03 3/11/ AND THEN UP.   65DAY PCT was -.139
                                        1/15/2009 8212.49 FELL TO 6547.05 ON 3/9       65DAY PCT was  -.126
                                        1/23/2009 8077.57  FELL TO 6547.05 ON 3/9       65DAY PCT was     =.129
                                 #5  2/4/2014  15445.24  up so far.    65-day Up-Pct was -.012            

                -->  To Key Index and Leading Stock Charts: DJI, SP-500, etc.  
               DJI Chart      SPY Chart       NASDAQ Chart       IBB Chart        IWM Chart  

              -->  261 +70      MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (2/20/2014)    Bullish plurality 
          -->    55 +11         MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks (2/20/2014) 
            -->     99  New Highs on NASDAQ 10 new lows. Bullish plurality 
             -->    91    New Highs on NYSE   12  new lows.   Bullish plurality   

                    Consider the Broader Market, not just the DIA or SPY.

                      Try to look beyond the DJI when the NASDAQ and QQQ outperform the DJI
                      by a wide margin. This has happened before.  I have mentioned 1967-1968
                      and 1999-2000.  History teaches us that secondary growth stocks should be played
                      long at this time, even despite the Sell S16 that Peerless gave at the end of last year.

                      Look at the Bullish MAXCPs for ideas.  Many of these stocks have been 
                      appearing on our lists nightly  since the rally began.  As should be expected, the best
                      performers are those showing great bulges of Accumulation, Closing Power new highs
                      and a quickly rising Relative Strength versus the DJI.  (The latter is shown by the brown RSQ
                      line just above the Accumulation Index on our daily TigerSoft charts.


                    
                     

                      This is too strong a market to short any but the Bearish MINCP stocks, which
                      surprisingly enough to outsiders, keep declining.  JCP and WLT are just the
                      most obvious examples of that.

.                      The DJI is the weakest of the major market ETFs.  In the past, a lagging DJI has shown
                      that the market has entered a very speculative phase where secondary stocks get
                      their chance to dance in the sun.  But right mow, the DJI is probably too strong
                      to short.  Its coming back above the 65-dma was a warning to cover.  So was
                      the excellent breadth again today.  We know from classic chart theory (Edwards
                      and Magee) that megaphone patterns warn that prices can move unusually
                      swiftly up from support back to new highs.   That is what the NASDAQ, IWM,
                      QQQ and the SP-500 show.

                      Last night's recommendation for traders to short DIA on mid-day strength today
                      was probably premature. But a significant top may still be made for the DJI in March.
                      While news of a sharp rise in January manufacturing got the DJI to jump up 100 points
                      between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM, its close was less than 100 points up for the
                      day.     See the Hourly DJI chart.  Note that the OBV line failed to move higher today. 
                      This is a bearish divergence we should be kept in mind.  DIA will probably be a good
                       short sale again, when the current move's upward momentum and uptrend are reversed.

                      If we only consider the DJI a little more, it would seem we may see a run to 16300-16400
                      where its upper band is.  Breadth has been good, so other stocks will probably rise
                      faster and further than the "old-fashioned", "dinosaur" DJI-30.  See below that the
                      DJI could easily stall out at its 3%-3.5% upper band.  Right now, it is may rise further.
                      but there still appears to be too much distribution (shown by weak IP21), inadequate
                      up-volume (shown by negative V-I) and poor intermediate-term momentum (MA-ROC is negative).

 


                      The Sell S16's second decline (wave down) is being delayed.  If the DJI rallies up more
                      than 5% from its recent lows, say another 200 points more, it would mean that
                      the S16 no longer looks like those past cases where the next top after the 5%
                      advance brought a very significant decline.  Such an additional advance would suggest
                      that SPY will achieve a bullish flat-top breakout and we may be starting the long-awaited
                      NASDAQ's climactic vertical ascent.

                      Watch Tiger's Day Traders' Tool for DIA.  When its current spike upwards ends,
                      we should see either a reversal or a period of consolidation.  Which will occur will
                      depends on whether secondary stocks take off into a vertical ascent mode.



                      Secondary growth stocks in the Bullish MAXCPs should be played aggressively long
                      now.    Watch to see if the IWP can get past the top of its price channel.


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                                                             OLDER HOTLINES
                                                     Go to http://tigersoft.com/112211-H /
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